Winter rainfall predicts phenology in widely separated populations of a migrant songbird.

Climate change is affecting behaviour and phenology in many animals. In migratory birds, weather patterns both at breeding and at non-breeding sites can influence the timing of spring migration and breeding. However, variation in responses to weather across a species range has rarely been studied, particularly among populations that may winter in different locations. We used prior knowledge of migratory connectivity to test the influence of weather from predicted non-breeding sites on bird phenology in two breeding populations of a long-distance migratory bird species separated by 3,000 km. We found that winter rainfall showed similar associations with arrival and egg-laying dates in separate breeding populations on an east-west axis: greater rainfall in Jamaica and eastern Mexico was generally associated with advanced American redstart (Setophaga ruticilla) phenology in Ontario and Alberta, respectively. In Ontario, these patterns of response could largely be explained by changes in the behaviour of individual birds, i.e., phenotypic plasticity. By explicitly incorporating migratory connectivity into responses to climate, our data suggest that widely separated breeding populations can show independent and geographically specific associations with changing weather conditions. The tendency of individuals to delay migration and breeding following dry winters could result in population declines due to predicted drying trends in tropical areas and the tight linkage between early arrival/breeding and reproductive success in long-distance migrants.

A test of the mismatch hypothesis: How is timing of reproduction related to food abundance in an aerial insectivore?

In seasonal environments, vertebrates are generally thought to time their reproduction so offspring are raised during the peak of food abundance. The mismatch hypothesis predicts that reproductive success is maximized when animals synchronize their reproduction with the food supply. Understanding the mechanisms influencing the timing of reproduction has taken on new urgency as climate change is altering environmental conditions during reproduction, and there is concern that species will not be able to synchronize their reproduction with changing food supplies. Using data from five sites over 24 years (37 site-years), we tested the assumptions of the mismatch hypothesis in the Tree Swallow (Tachycineta bicolor), a widespread aerial insectivore, whose timing of egg-laying has shifted earlier by nine days since the 1950s. Contrary to the mismatch hypothesis, the start of egg-laying was strongly related to food abundance (flying insect biomass) during the laying period and not to timing of the seasonal peak in food supply. In fact, food abundance generally continued to increase throughout the breeding season, and there was no evidence of selection based on the mistiming of laying with the seasonal peak of food abundance. In contrast, there was selection for laying earlier, because birds that lay earlier generally have larger clutches and fledge more young. Overall, initial reproductive decisions in this insectivore appear to be based on the food supply during egg formation and not the nestling period. Thus, the mismatch hypothesis may not apply in environments with relatively constant or abundant food throughout the breeding season. Although climate change is often associated with earlier reproduction, our results caution that it is not necessarily driven by selection for synchronized reproduction.

Critical thresholds associated with habitat loss: a review of the concepts, evidence, and applications.

A major conservation concern is whether population size and other ecological variables change linearly with habitat loss, or whether they suddenly decline more rapidly below a "critical threshold" level of habitat. The most commonly discussed explanation for critical threshold responses to habitat loss focus on habitat configuration. As habitat loss progresses, the remaining habitat is increasingly fragmented or the fragments are increasingly isolated, which may compound the effects of habitat loss. In this review we also explore other possible explanations for apparently nonlinear relationships between habitat loss and ecological responses, including Allee effects and time lags, and point out that some ecological variables will inherently respond nonlinearly to habitat loss even in the absence of compounding factors. In the literature, both linear and nonlinear ecological responses to habitat loss are evident among simulation and empirical studies, although the presence and value of critical thresholds is influenced by characteristics of the species (e.g. dispersal, reproduction, area/edge sensitivity) and landscape (e.g. fragmentation, matrix quality, rate of change). With enough empirical support, such trends could be useful for making important predictions about species' responses to habitat loss, to guide future research on the underlying causes of critical thresholds, and to make better informed management decisions. Some have seen critical thresholds as a means of identifying conservation targets for habitat retention. We argue that in many cases this may be misguided, and that the meaning (and utility) of a critical threshold must be interpreted carefully and in relation to the response variable and management goal. Despite recent interest in critical threshold responses to habitat loss, most studies have not used any formal statistical methods to identify their presence or value. Methods that have been used include model comparisons using Akaike information criterion (AIC) or t-tests, and significance testing for changes in slope or for polynomial effects. The judicious use of statistics to help determine the shape of ecological relationships would permit greater objectivity and more comparability among studies.

Demographic consequences of age-structure in extreme environments: population models for arctic and alpine ptarmigan.

Organisms living in arctic and alpine environments are increasingly impacted by human activities. To evaluate the potential impacts of global change, a better understanding of the demography of organisms in extreme environments is needed. In this study, we compare the age-specific demography of willow ptarmigan (Lagopus lagopus) breeding at arctic and subalpine sites, and white-tailed ptarmigan (L. leucurus) breeding at an alpine site. Rates of egg production improved with age at the alpine and subalpine sites, but the stochastic effects of nest and brood predation led to similar rates of annual fecundity among 1-, 2-, and 3+-year-old females. All populations had short generation times (T<2.7 years) and low net reproductive rates (R0<1.2). Stable age distributions were weighted towards 1-year-old females in willow ptarmigan (>59%), and to 3+-year-old females in white-tailed ptarmigan (>47%). High damping ratios (rho>3.2) indicated that asymptotic estimates were likely to match natural age distributions. Sensitivity and elasticity values indicated that changes in juvenile survival would have the greatest impact on the finite rate of population change (lambda) in willow ptarmigan, whereas changes to the survival of 3+-year-old females would have a greater effect in white-tailed ptarmigan. High survivorship buffers white-tailed ptarmigan in alpine environments against the potential effects of climate change on annual fecundity, but may make the species more sensitive to the effects of pollutants or harvesting on adult survival. Conversely, processes that reduce annual fecundity would have a greater impact on the population viability of willow ptarmigan in arctic and subalpine environments. If these same demographic patterns prove to be widespread among organisms in extreme environments, it may be possible to develop general recommendations for conservation of the biological resources of arctic and alpine ecosystems.

Foraging pattern of pine siskins and its influence on winter moth survival in an apple orchard.

Foraging by migratory pine siskins in an apple orchard infested with varying densities of winter moth was observed, and winter moth mortality in the presence and absence of birds was recorded. Time spent foraging in a tree and number of birds foraging per tree was positively related to larval density but number of larvae removed per leaf cluster or per unit time was not. Level of defoliation was a better predictor of the number of clusters searched per tree than was prey density. Despite poor predictability in allocation of search effort with respect to prey density, siskins acted as a source of strong compensatory mortality on the winter moth population.