Temporal and regional differences in the incidence of hospital-diagnosed endometriosis: a Danish population-based study.

INTRODUCTION: Due to diagnostic challenges, normalization of symptoms and an overall lack of awareness among both patients and physicians, endometriosis is an underdiagnosed disease. This can result in delayed treatment and potentially worsening of the disease. Despite initiatives, such as patients' support organizations and specialized endometriosis referral centers, differences in awareness, socioeconomic factors and lifestyle, combined with varying distances to specialized referral centers, could result in regional differences in the degree of underdiagnosing. This study aims to explore temporal and regional variations in the incidence of endometriosis based on the Danish hospital discharge register, and shed light on the degree of underdiagnosing of endometriosis in Denmark. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This registry-based cohort study included all women aged 15-55 living in Denmark from 1990-2017. Participants were identified through the Danish Civil Registration system and endometriosis diagnoses received at a hospital were obtained from the Danish National Patient Registry. Incidence rates of diagnosed endometriosis were calculated for each year of the study period and for each municipality in Denmark. A Cox regression analysis, stratified by calendar time and adjusted for ethnic origin, household composition, highest educational level and family socioeconomic status, was performed to estimate the association between residence and likelihood of receiving a hospital-based diagnosis of endometriosis. RESULTS: The nationwide incidence rate of hospital-diagnosed endometriosis was 7.89 (95% confidence interval [CI] 7.80-7.99) per 10 000 person-years and the prevalence in 2017 was 1.63%. The results showed an overall increase in the incidence of diagnosed endometriosis of 46.8% (95% CI 32.9-62.2) during the study period and also displayed significant regional differences. After adjustments, women living in northern Jutland had the highest probability of receiving a hospital-based diagnosis of endometriosis (hazard ratio 1.13, 95% CI 1.09-1.18), whereas women living in northern Zealand had the lowest probability (hazard ratio 0.63, 95% CI 0.60-0.67) compared with eastern Jutland. These regional differences have become more evident over time. CONCLUSIONS: Our results reveal significant regional differences in the incidence of hospital-diagnosed endometriosis, suggesting that a significant number of women may be left behind without a diagnosis. Further studies are needed to assess the underlying reasons for the significant regional differences.

Optimal interpregnancy interval in autism spectrum disorder: A multi-national study of a modifiable risk factor.

It is biologically plausible that risk of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is elevated by both short and long interpregnancy intervals (IPI). We conducted a retrospective cohort study of singleton, non-nulliparous live births, 1998-2007 in Denmark, Finland, and Sweden (N = 925,523 births). Optimal IPI was defined as the IPI at which minimum risk was observed. Generalized additive models were used to estimate relative risks (RR) of ASD and 95% Confidence Intervals (CI). Population impact fractions (PIF) for ASD were estimated under scenarios for shifts in the IPI distribution. We observed that the association between ASD (N = 9302) and IPI was U-shaped for all countries. ASD risk was lowest (optimal IPI) at 35 months for all countries combined, and at 30, 33, and 39 months in Denmark, Finland, and Sweden, respectively. Fully adjusted RRs at IPIs of 6, 12, and 60 months were 1.41 (95% CI: 1.08, 1.85), 1.26 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.56), and 1.24 (95% CI: 0.98, 1.58) compared to an IPI of 35 months. Under the most conservative scenario PIFs ranged from 5% (95% CI: 1%-8%) in Denmark to 9% (95% CI: 6%-12%) in Sweden. The minimum ASD risk followed IPIs of 30-39 months across three countries. These results reflect both direct IPI effects and other, closely related social and biological pathways. If our results reflect biologically causal effects, increasing optimal IPIs and reducing their indications, such as unintended pregnancy and delayed age at first pregnancy has the potential to prevent a salient proportion of ASD cases. LAY SUMMARY: Waiting 35 months to conceive again after giving birth resulted in the least risk of autism. Shorter and longer intervals resulted in risks that were up to 50% and 85% higher, respectively. About 5% to 9% of autism cases might be avoided by optimizing birth spacing.

Association of Genetic and Environmental Factors With Autism in a 5-Country Cohort.

Importance: The origins and development of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) remain unresolved. No individual-level study has provided estimates of additive genetic, maternal, and environmental effects in ASD across several countries. Objective: To estimate the additive genetic, maternal, and environmental effects in ASD. Design, Setting, and Participants: Population-based, multinational cohort study including full birth cohorts of children from Denmark, Finland, Sweden, Israel, and Western Australia born between January 1, 1998, and December 31, 2011, and followed up to age 16 years. Data were analyzed from September 23, 2016 through February 4, 2018. Main Outcomes and Measures: Across 5 countries, models were fitted to estimate variance components describing the total variance in risk for ASD occurrence owing to additive genetics, maternal, and shared and nonshared environmental effects. Results: The analytic sample included 2 001 631 individuals, of whom 1 027 546 (51.3%) were male. Among the entire sample, 22 156 were diagnosed with ASD. The median (95% CI) ASD heritability was 80.8% (73.2%-85.5%) for country-specific point estimates, ranging from 50.9% (25.1%-75.6%) (Finland) to 86.8% (69.8%-100.0%) (Israel). For the Nordic countries combined, heritability estimates ranged from 81.2% (73.9%-85.3%) to 82.7% (79.1%-86.0%). Maternal effect was estimated to range from 0.4% to 1.6%. Estimates of genetic, maternal, and environmental effects for autistic disorder were similar with ASD. Conclusions and Relevance: Based on population data from 5 countries, the heritability of ASD was estimated to be approximately 80%, indicating that the variation in ASD occurrence in the population is mostly owing to inherited genetic influences, with no support for contribution from maternal effects. The results suggest possible modest differences in the sources of ASD risk between countries.

Recurrence Risk of Autism in Siblings and Cousins: A Multinational, Population-Based Study.

OBJECTIVE: Familial recurrence risk is an important population-level measure of the combined genetic and shared familial liability of autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Objectives were to estimate ASD recurrence risk among siblings and cousins by varying degree of relatedness and by sex. METHOD: This is a population-based cohort study of livebirths from 1998 to 2007 in California, Denmark, Finland, Israel, Sweden and Western Australia followed through 2011 to 2015. Subjects were monitored for an ASD diagnosis in their older siblings or cousins (exposure) and for their ASD diagnosis (outcome). The relative recurrence risk was estimated for different sibling and cousin pairs, for each site separately and combined, and by sex. RESULTS: During follow-up, 29,998 cases of ASD were observed among the 2,551,918 births used to estimate recurrence in ASD and 33,769 cases of childhood autism (CA) were observed among the 6,110,942 births used to estimate CA recurrence. Compared with the risk in unaffected families, there was an 8.4-fold increase in the risk of ASD following an older sibling with ASD and a 17.4-fold increase in the risk of CA following an older sibling with CA. A 2-fold increase in the risk for cousin recurrence was observed for the 2 disorders. There also was a significant difference in sibling ASD recurrence risk by sex. CONCLUSION: The present estimates of relative recurrence risks for ASD and CA will assist clinicians and families in understanding autism risk in the context of other families in their population. The observed variation by sex underlines the need to deepen the understanding of factors influencing ASD familial risk.

Parental Age and Differential Estimates of Risk for Neuropsychiatric Disorders: Findings From the Danish Birth Cohort.

OBJECTIVE: Parental age at birth has been shown to affect the rates of a range of neurodevelopmental disorders, but the understanding of the mechanisms through which it mediates different outcomes is still lacking. A population-based cohort was used to assess differential effects of parental age on estimates of risk across pediatric-onset neuropsychiatric disorders: autism spectrum disorder (ASD), attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD), and Tourette's disorder/chronic tic disorder (TD/CT). METHOD: The study cohort included all singleton births in Denmark from 1980 through 2007 with full information on parental ages (N = 1,490,745) and was followed through December 31, 2013. Cases of ASD, ADHD, OCD, and TD/CT were identified in the Danish Psychiatric Central Register and the National Patient Register. Associations with parental age were modeled using a stratified Cox regression, allowing for changes in baseline diagnostic rates across time. RESULTS: Younger parental age was significantly associated with increased estimates of risk for ADHD and TD/CT, whereas older parental age was associated with ASD and OCD. Except for OCD, no evidence for differential effects of parental ages on male versus female offspring was observed. CONCLUSION: This study provides novel evidence for the association between age at parenthood and TD/CT and OCD and for the first time shows in a population-based sample that parental age confers differential risk rates for pediatric-onset psychiatric disorders. These results are consistent with a model of shared and unshared risk architecture for pediatric-onset neuropsychiatric conditions, highlighting unique contributions of maternal and paternal ages.

Estimating a population cumulative incidence under calendar time trends.

BACKGROUND: The risk of a disease or psychiatric disorder is frequently measured by the age-specific cumulative incidence. Cumulative incidence estimates are often derived in cohort studies with individuals recruited over calendar time and with the end of follow-up governed by a specific date. It is common practice to apply the Kaplan-Meier or Aalen-Johansen estimator to the total sample and report either the estimated cumulative incidence curve or just a single point on the curve as a description of the disease risk. METHODS: We argue that, whenever the disease or disorder of interest is influenced by calendar time trends, the total sample Kaplan-Meier and Aalen-Johansen estimators do not provide useful estimates of the general risk in the target population. We present some alternatives to this type of analysis. RESULTS: We show how a proportional hazards model may be used to extrapolate disease risk estimates if proportionality is a reasonable assumption. If not reasonable, we instead advocate that a more useful description of the disease risk lies in the age-specific cumulative incidence curves across strata given by time of entry or perhaps just the end of follow-up estimates across all strata. Finally, we argue that a weighted average of these end of follow-up estimates may be a useful summary measure of the disease risk within the study period. CONCLUSIONS: Time trends in a disease risk will render total sample estimators less useful in observational studies with staggered entry and administrative censoring. An analysis based on proportional hazards or a stratified analysis may be better alternatives.

Prenatal Maternal Smoking and Increased Risk for Tourette Syndrome and Chronic Tic Disorders.

OBJECTIVE: We assessed the role of prenatal maternal smoking in risk for Tourette syndrome and chronic tic disorder (TS/CT) and pediatric-onset obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD). METHOD: In an analysis of 73,073 singleton pregnancies from the Danish National Birth Cohort, we calculated incidence rates (IR) per 1,000 person-year for TS/CT and OCD. We then determined crude and adjusted hazard ratios and 95% CIs associated with prenatal maternal smoking, considering smoking as a dichotomous (yes/no) variable or a stratified variable (no smoking, light smoking, and heavy smoking [≥10 cigarettes/day]). Additional analyses examined the effect of maternal smoking on risk for TS/CT with other comorbid psychiatric conditions. RESULTS: In final adjusted analyses, heavy smoking was associated with a 66% increased risk for TS/CT (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.66, 95% CI = 1.17-2.35). In addition, heavy smoking was associated with a 2-fold increased risk for TS/CT with comorbid attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), and both light and heavy smoking were associated with a more than 2-fold increased risk for TS/CT with any non-ADHD psychiatric comorbidity. Our parallel analyses of pediatric-onset OCD were likely underpowered but showed similar relationships. CONCLUSION: Prenatal maternal smoking was associated with increased risk for TS/CT as well as TS/CT with comorbid psychiatric conditions, even after adjustment for several important variables, including maternal psychiatric history, socioeconomic status, and partner smoking. Our findings point to a pathway linking prenatal tobacco exposure and altered brain development to TS/CT.

Stoppage in Autism Spectrum Disorders.

Stoppage refers to changes in reproductive behavior following the birth of a child with a severe disease. The presence of stoppage can bias estimates of sibling recurrence risk if not properly addressed. If stoppage occurs non-randomly (differential stoppage), it is possibly an additional source of bias in sibling recurrence risk estimation. This study investigated whether stoppage occurs in Danish families with a firstborn child diagnosed with autism spectrum disorders, and if stoppage was differential. We found that stoppage occurs moderately in Danish families affected by autism spectrum disorders, and that stoppage is differential. However, differential stoppage is a minor source of estimation bias in Danish sibling recurrence risk studies of autism spectrum disorders.

Familial clustering of tic disorders and obsessive-compulsive disorder.

IMPORTANCE: Tourette syndrome/chronic tic disorder (TS/CT) and obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) overlap in their phenomenological features and often co-occur in affected individuals and families. Understanding how these disorders cluster in families provides important clinical information and is an important step in understanding the causes of these disorders. OBJECTIVE: To determine familial recurrence for TS/CT and OCD using a national epidemiologic sample. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: We performed a population-based study of national health registries in Denmark, including all individuals (n = 1 741 271) born in Denmark from January 1, 1980, through December 31, 2007, and followed up through December 31, 2013. We identified those with TS/CT and/or OCD. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The prevalence of TS/CT and OCD and relative recurrence risk (RRR) for TS/CT or OCD among individuals with an oldest sibling or a parent diagnosed as having TS/CT or OCD compared with individuals without an affected oldest sibling or an affected parent. RESULTS: In this sample, 5596 individuals were diagnosed as having TS/CT; 6191, OCD; and 412, both disorders. The overall cohort prevalence of TS/CT was 0.42% (95% CI, 0.41%-0.43%) and of OCD, 0.84% (95% CI, 0.81%-0.87%). The mean sibling recurrence risk for TS/CT across all birth years was 9.88% (95% CI, 8.02%-12.16%) and for OCD, 4.01% (95% CI, 2.78%-5.76%). The sibling RRR for TS/CT was 18.63 (95% CI, 15.34-22.63). In contrast, the sibling RRR for OCD was 4.89 (95% CI, 3.45-6.93). The parent-offspring RRR for TS/CT was 61.02 (95% CI, 44.43-83.82), whereas the parent-offspring RRR for OCD was 6.25 (95% CI, 4.82-8.11). The sibling and parent-offspring cross-disorder risks were also significant, ranging from 3.20 (95% CI, 2.22-4.62) to 10.27 (95% CI, 5.17-20.39). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Tourette syndrome/CT and OCD cluster in families. The familial aggregation of TS/CT is profound and substantially higher than the familial aggregation for OCD. The recurrence risk estimates provide an important clinical framework for identifying individuals at risk and provide insights into the causes of these disorders.

Explaining the increase in the prevalence of autism spectrum disorders: the proportion attributable to changes in reporting practices.

IMPORTANCE: The prevalence of autism spectrum disorders (ASDs) has increased markedly in recent decades, which researchers have suggested could be caused in part by nonetiologic factors such as changes in diagnosis reporting practices. To our knowledge, no study has quantified the degree to which changes in reporting practices might explain this increase. Danish national health registries have undergone a change in diagnostic criteria in 1994 and the inclusion of outpatient contacts to health registries in 1995. OBJECTIVE: To quantify the effect of changes in reporting practices in Denmark on reported ASD prevalence. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: We used a population-based birth cohort approach that includes information on all individuals with permanent residence in Denmark. We assessed all children born alive from January 1, 1980, through December 31, 1991, in Denmark (n=677915). The children were followed up from birth until ASD diagnosis, death, emigration, or the end of follow-up on December 31, 2011, whichever occurred first. The analysis uses a stratified Cox proportional hazards regression model with the changes in reporting practices modeled as time-dependent covariates. EXPOSURES: The change in diagnostic criteria in 1994 and the inclusion of outpatient diagnoses in 1995. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Autism spectrum disorders. RESULTS: For Danish children born during the study period, 33% (95% CI, 0%-70%) of the increase in reported ASD prevalence could be explained by the change in diagnostic criteria alone; 42% (95% CI, 14%-69%), by the inclusion of outpatient contacts alone; and 60% (95% CI, 33%-87%), by the change in diagnostic criteria and the inclusion of outpatient contacts. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Changes in reporting practices can account for most (60%) of the increase in the observed prevalence of ASDs in children born from 1980 through 1991 in Denmark. Hence, the study supports the argument that the apparent increase in ASDs in recent years is in large part attributable to changes in reporting practices.

The increasing prevalence of reported diagnoses of childhood psychiatric disorders: a descriptive multinational comparison.

The objective of this study is to compare the time trend of reported diagnoses of autism spectrum disorder (ASD), hyperkinetic disorder, Tourette's syndrome, and obsessive-compulsive disorder across four countries after standardizing the study period, diagnostic codes used to define the conditions and statistical analyses across countries. We use a population-based cohort, including all live-born children in Denmark, Finland, Sweden and Western Australia, from January 1, 1990, through December 31, 2007 and followed through December 31, 2011. The main outcome measure is age-specific prevalence of diagnoses reported to population-based registry systems in each country. We observe an increase in age-specific prevalence for reported diagnoses of all four disorders across birth-year cohorts in Denmark, Finland, Sweden, and (for ASD) Western Australia. Our results highlight the increase in the last 20 years in the number of children and families in contact with health care systems for diagnosis and services for an array of childhood neuropsychiatric disorders, a phenomenon not limited to ASD. Also, the age of diagnosis of the studied disorders was often much higher than what is known of the typical age of onset of symptoms, and we observe limited leveling off in the incidence rate with increasing age.