Risk to reoffend changes over time: Improving correctional programming through progress monitoring.

Progress monitoring is integral to evidence-based practice. Correctional settings, especially the supervision of individuals who commit sexual offenses, elicit public concern; negative outcomes can be catastrophic. Using a prospective longitudinal study of 2,939 men with a history of sexual offenses undergoing community supervision, we examined different models of progress monitoring and how they should inform the assessment of risk for sexual recidivism. We found that the most recent assessment scores of the ACUTE-2007 and STABLE-2007 sexual recidivism risk tools provided the best information about reoffending risk compared to using (a) the worst period of adjustments (i.e., highest risk score), (b) the best period of adjustments (i.e., lowest risk score), or (c) a rolling average of scores. We also found that the latest STABLE-2007 scores incrementally predicted sexual recidivism beyond baseline risk as assessed by demographic and criminal history variables (Static-99R). We conclude that the risk for sexual recidivism changes over time and that community corrections is advanced by repeated assessment of dynamic (changeable) risk factors. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Dynamic Risk Scales Degrade Over Time: Evidence for Reassessments.

Risk tools containing dynamic (potentially changeable) factors are routinely used to evaluate the recidivism risk of justice-involved individuals. Although frequent reassessments are recommended, there is little research on how the predictive accuracy of dynamic risk assessments changes over time. This study examined the extent to which predictive accuracy decreases over time for the ACUTE-2007 and the STABLE-2007 sexual recidivism risk tools. We used two independent samples of men on community supervision (NStudy 1 = 795; NStudy 2 = 4,221). For all outcomes (sexual, violent, and any recidivism [including technical violations]), reassessments improved predictive accuracy, with the largest effects found for the most recent assessment (i.e., those closest in time prior to the recidivism event). Based on these results, we recommend that ACUTE-2007 assessments occur at least every 30 days and that the STABLE-2007 assessments occur every 6 months or after significant life changes (e.g., successful completion of treatment).

ACUTE-2007 and STABLE-2007 predict recidivism for men adjudicated for child sexual exploitation material offending.

OBJECTIVE: Risk assessment is essential to effective correctional practice. For individuals with contact sexual offenses, many risk tools are available. There are fewer options, however, for individuals whose sexual offending exclusively involves child sexual exploitation materials (CSEM; legally referred to in Canada and the United States as child pornography). HYPOTHESES: The present study examined the predictive validity of the ACUTE-2007 and STABLE-2007 sexual recidivism risk tools among men with CSEM offenses. We expected these tools to show moderate predictive validity across study groups. METHOD: We compared the scales' discrimination and calibration across three groups: (a) 1,042 men with contact sexual offenses against children (baseline comparison), (b) 228 men with exclusive CSEM offending (no contact sexual offenses), and (c) 80 men with both contact sexual offenses and CSEM offenses. RESULTS: We found that the ACUTE-2007 and STABLE-2007 total scores and items had comparable (and often better) discrimination for men with CSEM offending compared with contact sexual offending against children in the prediction of any sexual recidivism, violent recidivism, and any recidivism. Calibration analyses indicated that the overall sexual recidivism rates for the median ACUTE-2007 and STABLE-2007 scores were similar for men with exclusive CSEM offenses compared with men with any contact offending against children. Almost all of the sexual recidivism for the CSEM-exclusive group involved further CSEM offenses. CONCLUSIONS: This study supports the use of these tools to rank-order men with CSEM offending in terms of their risk of reoffending and to help direct treatment and management efforts. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

Reliability and Factor Structure of the Sex Offender Treatment Intervention and Progress Scale.

Assessment of risk of sexual recidivism has progressed from tools containing only static factors to tools including dynamic (i.e., changeable) risk factors. The psychometric properties and factor structure of one such scale, the Sex Offender Treatment Intervention and Progress Scale (SOTIPS) were explored. Seven hundred and thirty-one men assigned probation for sexual crimes in New York City and Maricopa County, Arizona were administered SOTIPS three times: intake into probation, six months later, and six months after that. SOTIPS showed good internal consistency (Time 1 ω = .87, Time 2 ω = .89, and Time 3 ω = .91), and acceptable inter-rater reliability (for the 26 cases rated in the same month, ICC =.821). An exploratory factor analysis did not result in the original factor structure proposed by the developers; instead, SOTIPS showed two factors: sexual risk and antisocial opposition. This factor structure required the averaging of two items to avoid collinearity. SOTIPS showed temporal invariance indicating that its factor structure and its association to underlying latent variables are consistent over time.

Predictive Validity of Static-99R Among 8,207 Men Convicted of Sexual Crimes in South Korea: A Prospective Field Study.

The accuracy of risk assessment tools for Asian populations has received relatively little research attention. This study evaluated one of the most widely used static risk assessment tools - Static-99R - for assessing the likelihood of recidivism among men convicted of a sexual crime in South Korea. Overall, this South Korean sample (N = 8207) appeared to have a higher risk (more paraphilic interests, more sexual/general criminality) than the Static-99R normative samples (who were mostly White individuals from Western countries). Despite the differences, Static-99R was able to discriminate recidivists from nonrecidivists in South Korea, with AUC values similar to that observed in the normative samples (e.g., 0.72 for sexual recidivism). In terms of calibration, the observed sexual recidivism rates of the current sample were higher than the international routine/complete normative samples but lower than the high-risk/high-need normative samples (E/O = 0.75 and 1.26, respectively). Consequently, evaluators in South Korea can have reasonable confidence in the ability of Static-99R to rank individuals according to their relative likelihood of sexual recidivism.

Long Term Recidivism Rates Among Individuals at High Risk to Sexually Reoffend.

Preventive detention provisions in the US and Canada assume we can identify, in advance, individuals at high risk for sexual recidivism. To test this assumption, 377 adult males with a history of sexual offending were followed for 20 years using Canadian national criminal history records and Internet searches. Using previously collected information, a high risk/high need (HRHN) subgroup was identified based on an unusually high levels of criminogenic needs (n = 190, average age of 38 years; 83% White, 13% Indigenous, 4% other). A well above average subgroup of 99 individuals was then identified based on high Static-99R (6+) and Static-2002R (7+) scores. In the HRHN group, 40% reoffended sexually. STATIC HRHN norms overestimated sexual recidivism at 5 years (Static-99R, E/O = 1.44; Static-2002R, E/O = 1.72) but were well calibrated for longer follow-up periods (20 years: Static-99R, E/0 = 1.00; Static-2002R, E/O = 1.16). The overall sexual recidivism rate for the well above average subgroup was 52.1% after 20 years, and 74.3% for any violent recidivism. The highest risk individuals (top 1%) had rates in the 60%-70% range. We conclude that some individuals present a high risk for sexual recidivism, and can be identified using currently available methods.

Pedophilia is a taxon among 706 adult males assessed at a civil commitment center.

This study examined whether pedophilia is best understood as a dimension or a discrete class (taxon). We considered pedophilia to include both physical sexual attraction to children as well as emotional attraction to children and childhood. Archival data from 901 adult males from a U.S. civil commitment treatment center for sexually dangerous persons were used. Three indicators were submitted to Meehl and Ruscio's taxometric analyses: (a) a screening scale for pedophilic interests based on criminal history, (b) a composite indicator of pedophilic physical attraction, and (c) a composite indicator of pedophilic emotional attraction. All analyses supported a taxon. Compared with nontaxon members, taxon members had more interpersonal deficits, more neurodevelopmental perturbations, more sex-crime specific problems, and fewer problems related to criminality overall. Although previous research showed mixed results (some dimensional, some taxonic), the current study moves the balance of evidence toward considering pedophilia as a distinct disorder. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

Improving Our Risk Communication: Standardized Risk Levels for Brief Assessment of Recidivism Risk-2002R.

A Five-Level Risk and Needs system has been proposed as a common language for standardizing the meaning of risk levels across risk/need tools used in corrections. Study 1 examined whether the Five-Levels could be applied to BARR-2002R (N = 2,390), an actuarial tool for general recidivism. Study 2 examined the construct validity of BARR-2002R risk levels in two samples of individuals with a history of sexual offending (N = 1,081). Study 1 found reasonable correspondence between BARR-2002R scores and four of the five standardized risk levels (no Level V). Study 2 found that the profiles of individuals in Levels II, III, and IV were mostly consistent with expectations; however, individuals in the lowest risk level (Level I) had more criminogenic needs than expected based on the original descriptions of the Five-Levels. The Five-Level system was mostly successful when applied to BARR-2002R. Revisions to this system, or the inclusion of putatively dynamic risk factors and protective factors, may be required to improve alignment with the information provided by certain risk tools.

Field validity of Static-99R and STABLE-2007 with 4,433 men serving sentences for sexual offences in British Columbia: New findings and meta-analysis.

Many forensic assessment measures are developed and validated under research conditions but applied in the field, where professionals or paraprofessionals have varied training, unknown fidelity to administration procedures, and contextual pressures related to their institutions or legal system. Yet few studies examine the generalizability of psychometric properties of these scales as actually applied in field settings. This study examined 4,433 individuals assessed by probation officers on the Static-99R or STABLE-2007 sexual recidivism risk scales in British Columbia, Canada. Sexual, violent, and any recidivism were examined. Static-99R and STABLE-2007 had moderate accuracy in discriminating recidivists from non-recidivists, and both scales added incrementally in predicting all three outcomes (with Static-99R demonstrating higher accuracy). Organizing the items into constructs, sexual criminality, general criminality, and youthful stranger aggression incrementally predicted all three outcomes. For violent and any recidivism, the incremental effect of sexual criminality was in the negative direction (i.e., high sexual criminality was associated with relatively lower rates of violent and any recidivism). Calibration analyses indicated that recidivism rates were lower than what would be predicted by the norms for the scales. The current study also presented a meta-analysis of 15 field validity studies of Static-99R and 4 field validity studies of STABLE-2007. Results of the current study and meta-analysis support the field application of Static-99R and STABLE-2007, while emphasizing the importance of training and proper implementation. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

Updated 5-year and new 10-year sexual recidivism rate norms for Static-99R with routine/complete samples.

Objective: The purpose of this study was to develop new 10-year recidivism rate norms as well as to update 5-year norms for the Static-99R risk tool for routine/complete samples. We also present the extrapolated sexual recidivism rates from these new 10-year norms for follow-up periods of 11 to 20 years. Hypotheses: We hypothesized that absolute-recidivism base rates (B02; i.e., the intercept centered on the median score of 2) would vary; however, the relative predictive accuracy (i.e., discrimination; B1) would be stable across samples. In addition, compared with the estimated sexual recidivism rates with a fixed 5-year follow-up time, the estimated rates with a fixed 10-year follow-up time would be expected to be consistently higher across the Static-99R scores. Method: The current study included 12 independent samples (N = 7,224 for the 5-year recidivism rate norms; N = 1,599 [k = 6] for the 10-year norms) classified as routine/complete samples, that is, relatively random samples from a correctional system. Logistic regression parameters (B02 and B1) across the studies were aggregated using fixed-effect meta-analyses. Results: There was statistically significant variability in the base rates (B02), whereas the between-sample variability in the relative-risk parameters (B1) was no more than would be expected by chance. As expected, the 10-year base rates were approximately 1.5 times higher than the 5-year base rates (7.20% vs. 4.58%), and the extrapolated 20-year sexual recidivism rates were approximately double the observed 5-year sexual recidivism rates. Conclusions: The current study provides empirical evidence to estimate 5- and 10-year sexual recidivism rates based on Static-99R total scores. Evaluators who are especially concerned about long-term sexual recidivism risk (e.g., civil commitment) can report the expected sexual recidivism risk based on the new 10-year norms and the extrapolated sexual recidivism rates for follow-up periods of 11 to 20 years. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

Estimating Lifetime and Residual Risk for Individuals Who Remain Sexual Offense Free in the Community: Practical Applications.

Although individuals with a history of sexual crime are often viewed as a lifelong risk, recent research has drawn attention to consistent declines in recidivism risk for those who remain offense free in the community. Because these declines are predictable, this article demonstrates how evaluators can use the amount of time individuals have remained offense free to (a) extrapolate to lifetime recidivism rates from rates observed for shorter time periods, (b) estimate the risk of sexual recidivism for individuals whose current offense is nonsexual but who have a history of sexual offending, and (c) calculate yearly reductions in risk for individuals who remain offense free in the community. In addition to their practical utility for case-specific decision making, these estimates also provide researchers an objective, empirical method of quantifying the extent to which individuals have desisted from sexual crime.

STABLE-2007 Demonstrates Predictive and Incremental Validity in Assessing Risk-Relevant Propensities for Sexual Offending: A Meta-Analysis.

STABLE-2007 is a measure of risk-relevant propensities for adult males convicted of a sexual offense. This meta-analysis evaluated the ability of STABLE-2007 and its items to discriminate between recidivists and nonrecidivists, and the extent to which STABLE-2007 improves prediction over and above Static-99R. Based on 21 studies (12 unique samples, N = 6,955), we found that STABLE-2007 was significantly and incrementally related to sexual recidivism, violent (nonsexual) recidivism, violent (including sexual) recidivism, and any crime. Scores on STABLE-2007 items and the three STABLE-2000 attitude items also discriminated between individuals who sexually reoffended and those who did not sexually reoffend. These findings support the use of STABLE-2007 in applied risk assessment practice and the interpretation of STABLE-2007 items as indicators of treatment and supervision targets.

Does Reassessment Improve Prediction? A Prospective Study of the Sexual Offender Treatment Intervention and Progress Scale (SOTIPS).

This prospective study examined the predictive validity of the Sex Offender Treatment Intervention and Progress Scale (SOTIPS; McGrath et al., 2012), a sexual recidivism risk/need tool designed to identify dynamic (changeable) risk factors relevant to supervision and treatment. The SOTIPS risk tool was scored by probation officers at two sites (n = 565) for three time points: near the start of community supervision, at 6 months, and then at 12 months. Given that conventions for analyzing dynamic prediction studies have yet to be established, one of the goals of the current paper was to demonstrate promising statistical approaches for the analysis of longitudinal studies in corrections. In most analyses, static SOTIPS scores predicted all types of recidivism (sexual, violent, and general [any]). Dynamic SOTIPS scores, however, only improved the prediction of general recidivism, and only when the analyses with the greatest statistical power were used (Cox regression with time dependent covariates).

Monitoring changes in risk of reoffending: A prospective study of 632 men on community supervision.

OBJECTIVES: Few studies have examined how much individuals change on intermediate targets of risk to reoffend. Even fewer studies have examined the extent to which change on such measures predict reoffending. Establishing the validity of intermediate measures requires a multistep approach that (a) assesses the reliability of the change, (b) assesses change using statistical analyses that can account for measurement error, and (c) examines the extent to which change on these intermediate measures predict reoffending. METHOD: The current study examined the validity of an intermediate measure of risk to reoffend scored by community supervision officers (i.e., ACUTE-2007) in a large sample of men convicted of sexually motivated offenses (N = 632). RESULTS: We found that risk to reoffend changes across time, the pattern of change varies across individuals, risk levels can predict different patterns of change, and that the best predictors of recidivism are the latest score or a rolling average of scores. CONCLUSIONS: Community supervision can use recent information concerning the community adjustment of their clients to predict recidivism. Best practice includes updating assessments and adjusting supervision practices based on their clients' most recent assessment, or the average of previous assessments. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).

Reassessment improves prediction of criminal recidivism: A prospective study of 3,421 individuals in New Zealand.

A dynamic risk factor is a variable that can change across time, and as it changes, there is a corresponding change in the likelihood of the outcome. In corrections, there is evidence for dynamic risk factors when relatively more proximal reassessments enhance predictive validity for recidivism. In this article, we tested the proximity hypothesis with longitudinal, multiple-reassessment data gathered from 3,421 individuals supervised on parole in New Zealand (N = 68,667 assessments of theoretically dynamic risk factors conducted by corrections case managers). In this sample, reassessments consistently improved prediction as demonstrated by (1) incremental prediction over initial baseline scores and (2) improved model fit of the most recent assessment compared with the average of earlier scores. These results contribute to a growing body of evidence that support community corrections agencies conducting repeated assessments of the risk for imminent recidivism using a dynamic risk instrument. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).

Paraphilia and Antisociality: Motivations for Sexual Offending May Differ for American Whites and Blacks.

There has been little research on the sexual offending behavior of different racial groups. This study compares the characteristics and risk factors for American, non-Hispanic Whites (n =797) and Blacks (n = 788) who had been convicted of a sexual crime in New Jersey. The results indicated that Whites appeared more paraphilic whereas Blacks displayed higher antisociality. Despite the differences, however, the Static-99R, sexual recidivism risk tool, predicted equally well for both racial groups: Whites (area under the curve [AUC] = .76) and Blacks (AUC = .78). The findings suggest that there may be opportunities to improve treatment for the individuals at risk for sexual offending by tailoring interventions to the distinctive risk-relevant characteristics of Whites and Blacks.

Sex Offender Supervision: Communication, Training, and Mutual Respect Are Necessary for Effective Collaboration Between Probation Officers and Therapists.

Developed with the goal of preventing recidivism, contemporary sex offender supervision models focus on collaboration between probation officers and therapists. This exploratory study used focus groups to examine the working relationships between probation officers and therapists from two large U.S. urban probation departments. Overall, both probation officers and therapists were quite positive about their working relationships; they valued each others' roles and agreed that regular, accurate, and timely communication occurred frequently. Not all relationships, however, were effective. Several probation officers and therapists expressed dissatisfaction with poor communication, conflicts between the goals of therapy and probation, a lack of resources, and deficits in the policies they needed to adequately implement components of their supervision model (the containment model). Our findings suggest ways to structure sexual offender supervision that integrate the distinct orientations of probation officers and therapists into a collaboration that promotes public safety and work well for all.

Committed as a Violent Sexual Predator in His 10th Decade: A Case Study.

We report a case study of Atypical Offender (AO), a man who was civilly committed as a sexually violent person several years after his 90th birthday. In this article, we review the factors that usually contribute to virtually zero rates of sexual crime among nonagenarians for clues as to why these protective factors did not apply to this exceptional case. Psychological assessments and court records portrayed AO as having many of the features expected of persistent sexual offenders against children (e.g., pedophilic interests, child-oriented lifestyle). What was unusual, however, was AO's exceptional good health and vigor, which was maintained well into his tenth decade. Consequently, we recommend that forensic evaluators of older sexual offenders systematically consider the offenders' health as part of the overall risk assessment.

Three Central Dimensions of Sexual Recidivism Risk: Understanding the Latent Constructs of Static-99R and Static-2002R.

The most commonly used risk assessment tools for predicting sexual violence focus almost exclusively on static, historical factors. Consequently, they are assumed to be unable to directly inform the selection of treatment targets, or evaluate change. However, researchers using latent variable models have identified three dimensions in static actuarial scales for sexual offenders: Sexual Criminality, General Criminality, and a third dimension centered on young age and aggression to strangers. In the current study, we examined the convergent and predictive validity of these dimensions, using psychological features of the offender (e.g., antisocial traits, hypersexuality) and recidivism outcomes. Results indicated that (a) Sexual Criminality was related to dysregulation of sexuality toward atypical objects, without intent to harm; (b) General Criminality was related to antisocial traits; and (c) Youthful Stranger Aggression was related to a clear intent to harm the victim. All three dimensions predicted sexual recidivism, although only General Criminality and Youthful Stranger Aggression predicted nonsexual recidivism. These results indicate that risk tools for sexual violence are multidimensional, and support a shift from an exclusive focus on total scores to consideration of subscales measuring psychologically meaningful constructs.