Pharmacologic evidence to support clinical decision making for peripartum methadone treatment.

RATIONALE: Limited pharmacological data are available to guide methadone treatment during pregnancy and postpartum. OBJECTIVES: Study goals were to (1) characterize changes in methadone dose across childbearing, (2) determine enantiomer-specific methadone withdrawal kinetics from steady state during late pregnancy, (3) assess enantiomer-specific changes in methadone level/dose (L/D) ratios across childbearing, and (4) explore relationships between CYP2B6, CYP2C19, and CYP3A4 single-nucleotide polymorphisms and maternal dose, plasma concentration, and L/D. METHODS: Methadone dose changes and timed plasma samples were obtained for women on methadone (n = 25) followed prospectively from third trimester of pregnancy to 3 months postpartum. RESULTS: Participants were primarily white, Medicaid insured, and multiparous. All women increased their dose from first to end of second trimester (mean peak increase = 23 mg/day); 71 % of women increased from second trimester to delivery (mean peak increase = 19 mg/day). Half took a higher dose 3 months postpartum than at delivery despite significantly larger clearance during late pregnancy. Third trimester enantiomer-specific methadone half-lives (range R-methadone 14.7-24.9 h; S-methadone, 8.02-18.9 h) were about half of those reported in non-pregnant populations. In three women with weekly 24-h methadone levels after delivery, L/D increased within 1-2 weeks after delivery. Women with the CYP2B6 Q172 variant GT genotype have consistently higher L/D values for S-methadone across both pregnancy and postpartum. CONCLUSIONS: Most women require increases in methadone dose across pregnancy. Given the shorter half-life and larger clearances during pregnancy, many pregnant women may benefit from split methadone dosing. L/D increases quickly after delivery and doses should be lowered rapidly after delivery.

Patient satisfaction in resident and attending ambulatory care clinics.

OBJECTIVE: To measure and compare patient satisfaction with care in resident and attending physician internal medicine ambulatory care clinics. DESIGN: A cross-sectional survey using a questionnaire derived from the Visit-Specific Satisfaction Questionnaire (VSQ) and Patient Satisfaction Index (PSI) distributed from March 1998 to May 1998. SETTING: Four clinics based at a university teaching hospital and the associated Veterans' Affairs (VA) hospital. PARTICIPANTS: Two hundred eighty-eight patients of 76 resident and 25 attending physicians. RESULTS: Patients of resident physicians at the university site were more likely to be African American, male, have lower socioeconomic status and have lower physical and mental health scores on the Short Form-12 than patients of university attendings. Patients of resident and attending physicians at the VA site were similar. In multivariate analyses, patients of university attending physicians were more likely to be highly satisfied than patients of university residents on the VSQ-Physician (odds ratio [OR], 3.5; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.6 to 7.8) and the PSI-Physician (OR, 10.1; 95% CI, 3.7 to 27.4) summary scores. Differences were not seen on the summary scores at the VA site. Two individual items displayed significant differences between residents and attendings at both sites: "personal manner (courtesy, respect, sensitivity, friendliness) of the doctor" (P

Arterial blood gas and pulse oximetry in initial management of patients with community-acquired pneumonia.

OBJECTIVE: To identify the factors associated with the use of arterial blood gas (ABG) and pulse oximetry (PO) in the initial management of patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) and arterial hypoxemia at presentation. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 944 outpatients and 1,332 inpatients with clinical and radiographic evidence of CAP prospectively enrolled from 5 study sites in the United States and Canada. ANALYSES: Separate multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to 1) compare measurement of ABG and PO within 48 hours of presentation across sites while controlling for patient differences, and 2) identify factors associated with arterial hypoxemia (PaO2 <60 mm Hg or SaO2 <90% for non-African Americans and <92% for African Americans) while breathing room air. RESULTS: Range of ABG use by site was from 0% to 6.4% (P =.06) for outpatients and from 49.2% to 77.3% for inpatients (P <.001), while PO use ranged from 9.4% to 57.8% for outpatients (P <.001) and from 47.9% to 85.1% for inpatients (P <.001). Differences among sites remained after controlling for patient demographic characteristics, comorbidity, and illness severity. In patients with 1 or more measurements of oxygenation at presentation, hypoxemia was independently associated with 6 risk factors: age >30 years (odds ratio [OR], 3.2; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.7 to 5.9), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (OR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.4 to 2.6), congestive heart failure (OR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.0 to 2.1), respiratory rate >24 per minute (OR, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.8 to 3.0), altered mental status (OR, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.1 to 2.3), and chest radiographic infiltrate involving >1 lobe (OR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.7 to 2.9). The prevalence of hypoxemia among those tested ranged from 13% for inpatients with no risk factors to 54.6% for inpatients with > or =3 risk factors. Of the 210 outpatients who had > or =2 of these risk factors, only 64 (30.5%) had either an ABG or PO performed. In the 48 outpatients tested without supplemental O2 with > or =2 risk factors 8.3% were hypoxemic. CONCLUSIONS: In the initial management of CAP, use of ABG and PO varied widely across sites. Increasing the assessment of arterial oxygenation among patients with CAP is likely to increase the detection of arterial hypoxemia, particularly among outpatients.

Prevention of recurrent postpartum depression: a randomized clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: Women who have suffered one episode of postpartum-onset major depression (PPMD) comprise a high-risk group for subsequent episodes. We conducted a double-blind, randomized clinical trial to test the efficacy of nortriptyline in the prevention of recurrent PPMD. METHOD: Nondepressed women who had at least one past episode of PPMD (Research Diagnostic Criteria) were recruited during pregnancy. Subjects were randomly assigned to nortriptyline or placebo. Treatment began immediately postpartum. Each subject was assessed for 20 sequential weeks with the Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression and Research Diagnostic Criteria for recurrence of major depression. RESULTS: No difference was found in the rate of recurrence in women treated with nortriptyline compared with those treated with placebo. Of 26 subjects who took nortriptyline preventively, 6 (0.23, 95% exact confidence interval [CI] = 0.09 to 0.44) suffered recurrences. Of 25 subjects who took placebo, 6 (0.24, 95% exact CI = 0.09 to 0.45) suffered recurrence (Fisher exact p = 1.00). CONCLUSION: Nortriptyline did not confer additional preventive efficacy beyond that of placebo. The rate of recurrence of PPMD (one fourth of women) was unacceptably high.

The electronic medical record. A randomized trial of its impact on primary care physicians' initial management of major depression [corrected].

BACKGROUND: Inadequate treatments are reported for depressed patients cared for by primary care physicians (PCPs). Providing feedback and evidence-based treatment recommendations for depression to PCPs via electronic medical record improves the quality of interventions. METHODS: Patients presenting to an urban academically affiliated primary care practice were screened for major depression with the Primary Care Evaluation of Mental Disorders (PRIME-MD). During 20-month period, 212 patients met protocol-eligibility criteria and completed a baseline interview. They were cared for by 16 board-certified internists, who were electronically informed of their patients' diagnoses, and randomized to 1 of 3 methods of exposure to guideline-based advice for treating depression (active, passive, and usual care). Ensuing treatment patterns were assessed by medical chart review and by patient self-report at baseline and 3 months. RESULTS: Median time for PCP response to the electronic message regarding the patient's depression diagnosis was 1 day (range, 1-95 days). Three days after notification, 120 (65%) of 186 PCP responses indicated agreement with the diagnosis, 24 (13%) indicated disagreement, and 42 (23%) indicated uncertainty. Primary care physicians who agreed with the diagnoses sooner were more likely to make a medical chart notation of depression, begin antidepressant medication therapy, or refer to a mental health specialist (P<.001). There were no differences in the agreement rate or treatments provided across guideline exposure conditions. CONCLUSIONS: Electronic feedback of the diagnosis of major depression can affect PCP initial management of the disorder. Further study is necessary to determine whether this strategy, combined with delivery of treatment recommendations, can improve clinical outcomes in routine practice.

Understanding racial variation in the use of coronary revascularization procedures: the role of clinical factors.

BACKGROUND: Black patients undergo coronary artery bypass grafting and percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty less often than white patients. It is unclear how racial differences in clinical factors contribute to this variation. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was performed of 666 male patients (326 blacks and 340 whites), admitted to 1 of 6 Veterans Affairs hospitals from October 1, 1989, to September 30, 1995, with acute myocardial infarction or unstable angina who underwent cardiac catheterization. The primary comparison was whether racial differences in percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty and coronary artery bypass grafting rates persisted after stratifying by clinical appropriateness of the procedure, measured by the appropriateness scale developed by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. RESULTS: Whites more often than blacks underwent a revascularization procedure (47% vs 28%). There was substantial variation in black-white odds ratios within different appropriateness categories. Blacks were significantly less likely to undergo percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty (odds ratio, 0.30; 95% confidence interval, 0.14-0.63 [P<.01]) when the indication was rated "equivocal." Similarly, blacks were less likely to undergo coronary artery bypass grafting (odds ratio, 0.44; 95% confidence interval, 0.23-0.86 [P<.01]) when only coronary artery bypass grafting was indicated as "appropriate and necessary." Differences in comorbidity or use of cigarettes or alcohol did not explain these variations. Using administrative data from the Veterans Health Administration, we found no differences in 1-year (5.2% vs 7.4%) and 5-year (23.3% vs 26.2%) mortality for blacks vs whites. CONCLUSION: Among patients with acute myocardial infarction or unstable angina, variation in clinical factors using RAND appropriateness criteria for procedures explained some, but not all, racial differences in coronary revascularization use.

Preferences for sites of care among urban homeless and housed poor adults.

OBJECTIVE: To describe sources of health care used by homeless and housed poor adults. DESIGN: In a cross-sectional survey, face-to-face interviews were conducted to assess source of usual care, preferred site of care for specific problems, perceived need for health insurance at different sites of care, and satisfaction with care received. Polychotomous logistic regression analysis was used to identify the factors associated with selecting non-ambulatory-care sites for usual care. SETTING: Twenty-four community-based sites (i.e., soup kitchens, drop-in centers, and emergency shelters) frequented by the homeless and housed poor in Allegheny County, Pa. PARTICIPANTS: Of the 388 survey respondents, 85.6% were male, 78.1% African American, 76.9% between 30 and 49 years of age, 59.3% were homeless less than 1 year, and 70.6% had health insurance. MAIN RESULTS: Overall, 350 (90.2%) of the respondents were able to identify a source of usual medical care. Of those, 51.3% identified traditional ambulatory care sites (i.e., hospital-based clinics, community and VA clinics, and private physicians offices); 28.9% chose emergency departments; 8.0%, clinics based in shelters or drop-in centers; and 2.1%, other sites. Factors associated with identifying nonambulatory sites for usual care included lack of health insurance (relative risk range for all sites [RR] = 3.1-4.0), homelessness for more than 2 years (RR = 1. 4-3.0), receiving no medical care in the previous 6 months (RR = 1. 6-7.5), nonveteran status (RR = 1.0-2.5), being unmarried (RR = 1. 2-3.1), and white race (RR = 1.0-3.3). CONCLUSIONS: Having no health insurance or need for care in the past 6 months increased the use of a non-ambulatory-care site as a place for usual care. Programs designed to decrease emergency department use may need to be directed at those not currently accessing any care.

Utilization of health care services among subgroups of urban homeless and housed poor.

The objective of this study was to describe health services utilization by homeless and housed poor adults stratified by six-month primary sheltering arrangements. The primary method used in this study was a cross-sectional survey of 373 homeless adults. Interviews at twenty-four community-based sites (in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania) assessed demographic and clinical characteristics, reasons for homelessness, functional status and social support networks, and health services utilization during the previous six months. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified factors independently associated with health services utilization. Subjects were classified as unsheltered, emergency-sheltered, bridge-housed, doubled-up, and housed-poor. The median age of the subjects was 38.4 years; 78.6 percent were African American and 69.9 percent had health insurance. Overall, 62.7 percent reported health services use in the past six months, with significantly more use among emergency-sheltered and bridge-housed subjects than among unsheltered subjects. The study concludes that health services use among the homeless is substantial and is independently associated with sheltering arrangement, comorbid illness, race, health insurance, and social support.

Experiences and attitudes of residents and students influence voluntary service with homeless populations.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of two programs at the University of Pittsburgh, one that requires and one that encourages volunteer activity. In the program that requires primary care interns to spend 15 hours in a homeless clinic, we measured volunteer service after the requirement was fulfilled. In the program that encourages and provides the structure for first- and second-year medical students to volunteer, we assessed correlates of volunteering. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: When primary care interns were required to spend time at homeless clinics, all (13/13) volunteered to work at the same clinic in subsequent years. Categorical interns without this requirement were less likely to volunteer (24/51; chi2 = 12.7, p >. 001). Medical students who volunteered were more likely to be first-year students, have previously volunteered in a similar setting, have positive attitudes toward caring for indigent patients, and have fewer factors that discouraged them from volunteering (p <. 01 for all) than students who did not volunteer. CONCLUSIONS: Volunteering with underserved communities during medical school and residency is influenced by previous experiences and, among medical students, year in school. Medical schools and residency programs have the opportunity to promote volunteerism and social responsibility through mentoring and curricular initiatives.

Obsessions and compulsions in women with postpartum depression.

OBJECTIVE: The quantity, content, and intensity of the obsessions and compulsions of women with postpartum onset major depressive disorder were compared with those of women with major depressive disorder with non-postpartum onset. METHOD: Sequential cases of women with postpartum onset major depression (N = 37) and major depression (N = 28) who presented to our Women's Mood Disorders program were included. Psychiatric examination using DSM-IV criteria and the Inventory to Diagnose Depression established the diagnosis of major depression. Obsessive thoughts and compulsions were reported on the Yale-Brown Obsessive Compulsive Scale and reviewed during the psychiatric examination. Comparisons between groups were performed with chi-square statistics, Fisher exact test and its extensions, and Mann-Whitney U test. RESULTS: Although more women with postpartum onset major depression (N = 21, 57%) than major depression (N = 10, 36%) reported obsessional thoughts, the difference between the groups was not significant (p = .13). However, for women who endorsed obsessions, those with postpartum onset had a higher median number (median = 7) than women without postpartum onset (median = 2, p = .00). Most of the difference in frequency of thoughts was owing to more women with postpartum onset major depression having aggressive thoughts (N = 20, 95%) than women with major depression (N = 6, 60%, Fisher exact p = .03). The most frequent content of the aggressive thoughts for women with postpartum onset major depression was causing harm to their newborns or infants. The presence or number of obsessional thoughts or compulsions was not related to severity of the depressive episode. CONCLUSION: Childbearing-aged women commonly experience obsessional thoughts or compulsions in the context of major depressive episodes. Women with postpartum onset major depression experience disturbing aggressive obsessional thoughts more frequently than women with non-postpartum major depression.

What's driving an epidemic? The spread of syphilis along an interstate highway in rural North Carolina.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to determine whether county syphilis rates were increased along Interstate Highway 95 (I-95) in North Carolina during a recent epidemic. METHODS: Ecological data on syphilis cases demographic data, highway data, and drug activity data were used to conduct a cross-sectional and longitudinal study of North Carolina countries from 1985 to 1994. Crude and adjusted incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were determined by means of standard and longitudinal Poisson regression models adjusted for sociodemographic factors and drug use. RESULTS: Ten-year syphilis rates in I-95 counties greatly exceeded rates in non-I-95 counties (38 vs 16 cases per 100,000 persons) and remained higher after adjustment for race, age, sex, poverty, large cities, and drug activity (adjusted IRR = 2.05, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.84, 2.28). Syphilis rates were stable until 1989, when rates increased sharply in I-95 counties but remained stable in non-I-95 counties. Increased drug activity in I-95 counties preceded the rise in syphilis cases. CONCLUSIONS: A better understanding of the relationship between high-ways and the spread of sexually transmitted diseases may guide future prevention interventions.

Do symptoms predict cardiac arrhythmias and mortality in patients with syncope?

BACKGROUND: Patients with syncope frequently present with multitude of other symptoms but their significance in predicting morbidity or mortality has not been previously studied. OBJECTIVE: To determine if certain symptoms can be used to identify syncope patients at risk for cardiac arrhythmias, mortality, or recurrence of syncope. PATIENTS AND METHODS: From August 1987 to February 1991, we prospectively evaluated patients with syncope from outpatient, inpatient, and emergency department services of a university medical center. These patients were interviewed, charts were reviewed, and detailed information on 19 symptoms and comorbidities was obtained. A cause of syncope was assigned using standardized diagnostic criteria. All patients were followed up at 3-month intervals for at least 1 year for recurrence of syncope and mortality. Patients in whom the cause of syncope was determined by medical history and physical examination alone were not included in our analysis. RESULTS: History and physical examination led to the cause of syncope in 222 of 497 patients enrolled. In the remaining 275 patients, the absence of nausea and vomiting before syncope (odds ratio, 7.1) and electrocardiographic abnormalities (odds ratio, 23.5) were predictors of arrhythmic syncope. Underlying cardiac disease was the only predictor of 1-year mortality. No symptom remained as independent predictor for 1-year mortality or syncope recurrence. CONCLUSIONS: Symptoms, although important in assigning many noncardiac causes, are not useful in risk-stratifying patients whose cause of syncope cannot be identified by other history and physical examination. Triage decisions and management plans should be based on pre-existing cardiac disease or electrocardiographic abnormalities, which are important predictors of arrhythmic syncope and mortality.

Screening for problem drinking: impact on physician behavior and patient drinking habits.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of a screen for problem drinking on medical residents and their patients. DESIGN: Descriptive cohort study. SETTING: Veterans Affairs Medical Clinic. PATIENTS: Patients were screened 2 weeks before a scheduled visit (n = 714). Physicians were informed if their patients scored positive. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Physician discussion of alcohol use was documented through patient interview and chart review. Self-reported alcohol consumption was recorded. Of 236 current drinkers, 28% were positive for problem drinking by the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT). Of 58 positive patients contacted at 1 month, 78% recalled a discussion about alcohol use, 58% were advised to decrease drinking, and 9% were referred for treatment. In 57 positive patient charts, alcohol use was noted in 33 (58%), and a recommendation in 14 (25%). Newly identified patients had fewer notations than patients with prior alcohol problems. Overall, 6-month alcohol consumption decreased in both AUDIT-positive and AUDIT-negative patients. The proportion of positive patients who consumed more than 16 drinks per week (problem drinking) decreased from 58% to 49%. Problem drinking at 6 months was independent of physician discussion or chart notation. CONCLUSIONS: Resident physicians discussed alcohol use in a majority of patients who screened positive for alcohol problems but less often offered specific advice or treatment. Furthermore, residents were less likely to note concerns about alcohol use in charts of patients newly identified. Finally, a screen for alcohol abuse may influence patient consumption.

Surgical margins for excision of primary cutaneous melanoma.

BACKGROUND: A major controversy in the treatment of melanoma is the width of the surgical margin necessary for complete excision. Although surgical margins have decreased in recent years, the current recommendations are mainly based on arbitrary choices, only two of which have been tested in clinical trials. OBJECTIVE: Our purpose was to use prospective data, measuring the extent of subclinical melanoma extensions, to develop guidelines for predetermined surgical margins for the excision of cutaneous melanoma. METHODS: A prospectively collected series of 535 patients with 553 primary cutaneous melanomas was studied. All melanomas were excised by means of the fresh tissue technique of Mohs micrographic surgery with frozen section examination of the margin. The surgical margin needed for excision of melanoma was determined by measuring the invisible extensions of tumor around the melanoma. The minimum surgical margin was 6 mm and the total margin was calculated by adding an additional 3 mm for any melanoma requiring a subsequent stage to remove the tumor completely. RESULTS: Eighty-three percent of melanomas were successfully excised with a 6 mm margin; 9 mm removed 95% of the melanomas; and a 1.2 cm margin was necessary to remove 97% of all melanomas. Margins to remove melanomas on the head, neck, hands, and feet were wider than those on the trunk and extremities. Margins to remove melanomas that were more than 2 to 3 cm in diameter were wider than for smaller melanomas. CONCLUSION: Predetermined surgical margins for excision of melanoma or melanoma in situ by standard surgical techniques should include 1 cm of normal-appearing skin for melanomas on the trunk and proximal extremities that are smaller than 2 cm in diameter, or a 1.5 cm margin for tumors larger than 2 cm in diameter. For melanomas on the head, neck, hands, and feet, a minimum surgical margin of 1.5 cm is recommended or a margin of 2.5 cm for melanomas larger than 3 cm in diameter. Mohs micrographic surgery is a useful alternative to standard surgery when more narrow margins are desired, particularly for melanomas on the head, neck, hands, and feet, or melanomas larger than 2.5 cm in diameter, or for melanomas without distinct clinical margins.

Mohs micrographic surgery for the treatment of primary cutaneous melanoma.

BACKGROUND: Mohs micrographic surgery is thought to be a useful therapy for cutaneous melanoma. Controversy persists, however, because there are few published reports that document its safety and efficacy. OBJECTIVE: Our purpose was to determine the safety and efficacy of Mohs micrographic surgery for the treatment of cutaneous melanoma. METHODS: A consecutive sample of 535 patients referred for treatment of 553 primary cutaneous melanomas was entered into the study. Of this sample, 99.5% of patients completed their first 5 years of follow-up. All melanomas were excised by means of fresh-tissue Mohs micrographic surgery with frozen-section examination of the margin. The 5-year Kaplan-Meier melanoma mortality, metastasis, and local recurrence rates were compared with historical control cases. RESULTS: Mohs micrographic surgery provided 5-year survival and metastatic rates equivalent to or better than historical controls that were treated by standard wide-margin surgery. Satellite metastases were not more common with the narrow margins used with Mohs micrographic surgery. Local recurrences from inadequate excision of the primary tumor were infrequent (0.5%). The majority of melanomas were successfully excised with a narrow margin (83% were excised with a 6 mm margin). CONCLUSION: Mohs micrographic surgery is an effective therapy for primary cutaneous melanoma. It may be particularly useful to conserve tissue for melanomas on the head, neck, hands, or feet or for melanomas with indistinct clinical margins.

Risk stratification of patients with syncope.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a risk classification system for patients presenting to emergency departments with syncope. METHODS: Two prospective studies were carried out at a large urban teaching hospital ED. One cohort of 252 patients with syncope who reported to the ED was used to develop the risk classification system; a second cohort of 374 patients with syncope was used to validate the system. Data from the patient's history, physical examination and ED ECG were used to identify predictors of arrhythmias or mortality within the first year. Arrhythmias were detected by cardiac monitoring or electrophysiologic studies. Logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify the important risk factors for the classification system. Performance of the system was measured by comparing the proportion of patients with arrhythmias or death at various levels of the risk and receiver operating characteristic curves. RESULTS: Multivariate predictors of arrhythmia or 1-year mortality were an abnormal ED ECG (odds ratio [OR], 3.2; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.6 to 6.4); history of ventricular arrhythmia (OR, 4.8; 95% CI, 1.7 to 13.9); history of congestive heart failure (OR, 3.2; 95% Cl, 1.3 to 8.1). Arrhythmias or death within 1 year occurred in 7.3% (derivation cohort) to 4.4% (validation cohort) of patients without any risk factors and in 80.4% (derivation) to 57.6% (validation) of patients with three or four risk factors. CONCLUSION: Historical and ECG factors available at the time of presentation can be used to stratify risk of arrhythmias or mortality within 1 year in ED patients presenting with syncope.

An evaluation of machine-learning methods for predicting pneumonia mortality.

This paper describes the application of eight statistical and machine-learning methods to derive computer models for predicting mortality of hospital patients with pneumonia from their findings at initial presentation. The eight models were each constructed based on 9847 patient cases and they were each evaluated on 4352 additional cases. The primary evaluation metric was the error in predicted survival as a function of the fraction of patients predicted to survive. This metric is useful in assessing a model's potential to assist a clinician in deciding whether to treat a given patient in the hospital or at home. We examined the error rates of the models when predicting that a given fraction of patients will survive. We examined survival fractions between 0.1 and 0.6. Over this range, each model's predictive error rate was within 1% of the error rate of every other model. When predicting that approximately 30% of the patients will survive, all the models have an error rate of less than 1.5%. The models are distinguished more by the number of variables and parameters that they contain than by their error rates; these differences suggest which models may be the most amenable to future implementation as paper-based guidelines.

Effects of the postpartum period on nortriptyline pharmacokinetics.

The objective of this research was to investigate sequential serum levels and level/dose ratios of the tricyclic antidepressant nortriptyline (NTP) through the first 17 postpartum weeks. The initial NTP dose was given immediately postpartum to 16 mothers and increased gradually to 70 mg over the first week. A dose of 75 mg was prescribed until adjustment according to serum levels. Serum levels of NTP and its metabolites Z- and E-OH-NTP were determined. At postpartum Week 2, the women developed a mean level/dose (L/D) ratio for NTP of 1.11 (range 0.37 to 3.23), and subsequently experienced an increase in the L/D ratios which continued through Week 6. At Week 8, the NTP L/D ratios declined, and became relatively stable at Week 11 and beyond. For postpartum women treated with NTP, side effect profiles should be carefully followed during the first 6 weeks after delivery as a clinical marker for elevation of serum levels. Since our highest L/D ratios for NTP occurred at Week 6, a serum level is recommended at this time. If the dose needs to be lowered to maintain a nontoxic level, a repeat serum level should be obtained at Week 11, at which time an increase in dose may be required.

A prediction rule to identify low-risk patients with community-acquired pneumonia.

BACKGROUND: There is considerable variability in rates of hospitalization of patients with community-acquired pneumonia, in part because of physicians' uncertainty in assessing the severity of illness at presentation. METHODS: From our analysis of data on 14,199 adult inpatients with community-acquired pneumonia, we derived a prediction rule that stratifies patients into five classes with respect to the risk of death within 30 days. The rule was validated with 1991 data on 38,039 inpatients and with data on 2287 inpatients and outpatients in the Pneumonia Patient Outcomes Research Team (PORT) cohort study. The prediction rule assigns points based on age and the presence of coexisting disease, abnormal physical findings (such as a respiratory rate of > or = 30 or a temperature of > or = 40 degrees C), and abnormal laboratory findings (such as a pH <7.35, a blood urea nitrogen concentration > or = 30 mg per deciliter [11 mmol per liter] or a sodium concentration <130 mmol per liter) at presentation. RESULTS: There were no significant differences in mortality in each of the five risk classes among the three cohorts. Mortality ranged from 0.1 to 0.4 percent for class I patients (P=0.22), from 0.6 to 0.7 percent for class II (P=0.67), and from 0.9 to 2.8 percent for class III (P=0.12). Among the 1575 patients in the three lowest risk classes in the Pneumonia PORT cohort, there were only seven deaths, of which only four were pneumonia-related. The risk class was significantly associated with the risk of subsequent hospitalization among those treated as outpatients and with the use of intensive care and the number of days in the hospital among inpatients. CONCLUSIONS: The prediction rule we describe accurately identifies the patients with community-acquired pneumonia who are at low risk for death and other adverse outcomes. This prediction rule may help physicians make more rational decisions about hospitalization for patients with pneumonia.

Effects of childbearing on the natural history of panic disorder with comorbid mood disorder.

This historical prospective study included 22 women with panic disorder. They experienced 45 pregnancies associated with or after their first lifetime episode of panic disorder. Mood disorder predated or was associated with 32 of these pregnancies. The most common effect of pregnancy was No Change in symptoms from baseline during pregnancy and continued No Change postnatally for both panic attacks (n = 22; 49%) and depression (n = 19; 59%). The pattern of panic attack across gestations was consistent for only 5 of 14 multiparae. An interesting observation was that first lifetime onset of panic disorder was common postpartum (n = 4) or post-miscarriage (n = 2). First-onset depression was also common postpartum (n = 4).