Stem moisture content prediction model for Larix olgensis based on beta regression.

To investigate the longitudinal variation patterns of sapwood, heartwood, bark and stem moisture content along the trunk of artificial Larix olgensis, we constructed mixed effect models of moisture content based on beta regression by combining the effects of sampling plot and sample trees. We used two sampling schemes to calibrate the model, without limiting the relative height (Scheme Ⅰ) and with a limiting height of less than 2 m (Scheme II). The results showed that sapwood and stem moisture content increased gradually along the trunk, heartwood moisture content decreased slightly and then increased along the trunk, and bark moisture content increased along the trunk and then levelled off before increasing. Relative height, height to crown base, stand area at breast height per hectare, age, and stand dominant height were main factors driving moisture content of L. olgensis. Scheme Ⅰ showed the stable prediction accuracy when randomly sampling moisture content measurements from 2-3 discs to calibrate the model, with the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of up to 7.2% for stem moisture content (randomly selected 2 discs), and the MAPE of up to 7.4%, 10.5% and 10.5% for sapwood, heartwood and bark moisture content (randomly selected 3 discs), respectively. Scheme Ⅱ was appropriate when sampling moisture content measurements from discs of 1.3 and 2 m height and the MAPE of sapwood, heartwood, bark and stem moisture content reached 7.8%, 11.0%, 10.4% and 7.1%, respectively. The prediction accuracies of all mixed effect beta regression models were better than the base model. The two-level mixed effect beta regression models, considering both plot effect and tree effect, would be suitable for predicting moisture content of each part of L. olgensis well.

Height-diameter model of broad-leaved mixed forest based on species classification in Maoershan, Northeast China.

The complex stand structure and high species diversity of natural forests pose great challenges for analyzing stand growth and formulating reasonable plans for forest management. The height-diameter relationship is of great significance for predicting stand growth and formulating forest management measures. Based on survey data of 48 broad-leaved mixed forest plots in Maoershan, we classified 23 tree species into four groups based on species structure, growth characteristics and bionomics. We established a generalized model including stand, tree competition, species mixing and species diversity variables by reparameterization method, and a two-level mixed effect model of plot and tree species group. We tested the prediction ability of the model by leave-one-out cross-validation method. The results showed that the Ratkowsky (1990) model was the optimal basic model. The introduction of dominant height, basal area of trees larger than the object tree, basal area proportion of each species, and Shannon index could better explain the height-diameter relationship of broad-leaved mixed forest in Maoershan. The introduction of the mixed effect model of plot and tree species group could significantly improve the prediction accuracy of the model, with a Ra2 of 0.83. Under the same gradient of environmental factors, intolerant tree species exhibited higher tree heights than shade-tolerant tree species. In this study, we used the constructed tree height-diameter model to analyze the effects of species mixing and tree functional traits on tree height, which provided a theoretical basis for accurately predicting height of different tree species and analyzing the growth relationships in broadleaved mixed forests.

Model construction for height to crown base of Larix olgensis based on mixed-effects model and quantile regression.

Height to crown base is an important index reflecting the characteristics of tree crown. It is of great significance to accurately quantify height to crown base for forest management and increasing stand production. We used nonlinear regression to construct the height to crown base generalized basic model, and further extended that to the mixed-effects model and quantile regression model. The prediction ability of the models was evaluated and compared by the 'leave-one-out' cross-validate. Four sampling designs and different sampling sizes were used to calibrate the height to crown base model, and the best model calibration scheme was selected. The results showed that based on the height to crown base generalized model including tree height, diameter at breast height, basal area of the stand and average dominant height, the prediction accuracy of the expanded mixed-effects model and the combined three-quartile regression model were obviously improved. The mixed-effects model was slightly better than the combined three-quartile regression model, and the optimal sampling calibration scheme was to select five average trees. The mixed-effects model with five average trees was recommended to predict the height to crown base in practice.