Burden of hospital admissions caused by respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in infants in England: A data linkage modelling study.

OBJECTIVES: Current national estimates of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)-associated hospital admissions are insufficiently detailed to determine optimal vaccination strategies for RSV. We employ novel methodology to estimate the burden of RSV-associated hospital admissions in infants in England, with detailed stratification by patient and clinical characteristics. METHODS: We used linked, routinely collected laboratory and hospital data to identify laboratory-confirmed RSV-positive and RSV-negative respiratory hospital admissions in infants in England, then generate a predictive logistic regression model for RSV-associated admissions. We applied this model to all respiratory hospital admissions in infants in England, to estimate the national burden of RSV-associated admissions by calendar week, age in weeks and months, clinical risk group and birth month. RESULTS: We estimated an annual average of 20,359 (95% CI 19,236-22,028) RSV-associated admissions in infants in England from mid-2010 to mid-2012. These admissions accounted for 57,907 (95% CI 55,391-61,637) annual bed days. 55% of RSV-associated bed days and 45% of RSV-associated admissions were in infants <3 months old. RSV-associated admissions peaked in infants aged 6 weeks, and those born September to November. CONCLUSIONS: We employed novel methodology using linked datasets to produce detailed estimates of RSV-associated admissions in infants. Our results provide essential baseline epidemiological data to inform future vaccine policy.

Epidemiology of laboratory-confirmed respiratory syncytial virus infection in young children in England, 2010-2014: the importance of birth month.

The epidemiology of laboratory-confirmed respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections in young children has not recently been described in England, and is an essential step in identifying optimal target groups for future licensed RSV vaccines. We used two laboratory surveillance systems to examine the total number and number of positive RSV tests in children aged <5 years in England from 2010 to 2014. We derived odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) comparing children by birth month, using multivariable logistic regression models adjusted for age, season and sex. Forty-seven percent of RSV tests (29 851/63 827) and 57% (7405/13 034) of positive results in children aged <5 years were in infants aged <6 months. Moreover, 38% (4982/13 034) of positive results were in infants aged <3 months. Infants born in September, October and November had the highest odds of a positive RSV test during their first year of life compared to infants born in January (OR 2·1, 95% CI 1·7-2·7; OR 2·4, 95% CI 2·1-2·8; and OR 2·4, 95% CI 2·1-2·7, respectively). Our results highlight the importance of young age and birth month near the beginning of the RSV season to the risk of laboratory-confirmed RSV infection. Future control measures should consider protection for these groups.

Prescribing of neuraminidase inhibitors for influenza in UK primary care since the 2009 pandemic.

We determined prescribing rates of neuraminidase inhibitors (NIs) for influenza in UK primary care since 2009 in relation to national prescribing guidelines. All NI prescriptions issued during the influenza seasons between October 2010 and May 2013 were extracted from The Health Improvement Network (THIN), a large UK primary-care database. We calculated NI prescribing rates per 100,000 person-weeks (pw) by age group, sex, deprivation level, influenza season and presence of chronic conditions with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), and used negative binomial regression models to determine the independent association between these variables and NI prescribing. NI prescribing was rare. The prescribing rate was 1·7/100,000 pw (95% CI 1·7-1·8) during influenza-active periods, and 0·1/100,000 (95% CI 0·1-0·1) during non-active periods. Prescribing rates were highest in 25- to 44-year-olds in 2010/2011 and in persons aged ⩾85 years in 2011/2012 and 2012/2013. Individuals with chronic conditions had significantly higher prescribing rates than persons without (rate ratio 2·62, 95% CI 2·27-3·03). GPs are more likely to prescribe NIs to high-risk individuals and during influenza active periods, as per national guidelines. We could not assess the proportion of patients with influenza-like illness who were prescribed an NI.

Mortality caused by influenza and respiratory syncytial virus by age group in England and Wales 1999-2010.

BACKGROUND: The mortality burden caused by influenza cannot be quantified directly from death certificates because of under-recording; therefore, the estimated number of influenza deaths has to be obtained through statistical modelling. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the number of deaths caused by influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in England and Wales between 1999 and 2010 using a multivariable regression model. METHODS: Generalised linear models were used to estimate weekly deaths by age group (<15, 15-44, 45-74 and 75+ years) as a function of positive influenza and RSV isolates. Adjustment was made for temperature variation (using weekly means of daily Central England temperature time series), underlying seasonal variation and temporal trends. The parameters from the model were used to predict the number of deaths caused by influenza and RSV across winter seasons. RESULTS: Between 7000 and 25 000 deaths across all ages were associated with influenza in the winter periods 1999-2009. The mortality burden was the highest among the over 75 age group, among whom 2·5-8·1% of deaths were caused by influenza. The lowest number of influenza deaths was estimated for the winter 2009/2010 when pandemic influenza A/H1N1 (2009) was the predominant circulating strain. RSV accounted for 5000-7500 deaths each winter season. CONCLUSIONS: The model presented provides a robust and reasonable approach to estimating the number of deaths caused by influenza and RSV by age group at the end of each winter.

Excess mortality monitoring in England and Wales during the influenza A(H1N1) 2009 pandemic.

We present the results from a novel surveillance system for detecting excess all-cause mortality by age group in England and Wales developed during the pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 period from April 2009 to March 2010. A Poisson regression model was fitted to age-specific mortality data from 1999 to 2008 and used to predict the expected number of weekly deaths in the absence of extreme health events. The system included adjustment for reporting delays. During the pandemic, excess all-cause mortality was seen in the 5-14 years age group, where mortality was flagged as being in excess for 1 week after the second peak in pandemic influenza activity; and in age groups >45 years during a period of very cold weather. This new system has utility for rapidly estimating excess mortality for other acute public health events such as extreme heat or cold weather.

Effectiveness of seasonal 2010/11 and pandemic influenza A(H1N1)2009 vaccines in preventing influenza infection in the United Kingdom: mid-season analysis 2010/11.

This study provides mid-season estimates of the effectiveness of 2010/11 trivalent influenza vaccine and previous vaccination with monovalent influenza A(H1N1)2009 vaccine in preventing confirmed influenza A(H1N1)2009 infection in the United Kingdom in the 2010/11 season. The adjusted vaccine effectiveness was 34% (95% CI: -10 - 60%) if vaccinated only with monovalent vaccine in the 2009/10 season; 46% (95% CI: 7 - 69%) if vaccinated only with trivalent influenza vaccine in the 2010/11 season and 63% (95% CI: 37 - 78%) if vaccinated in both seasons.

Serum antibody kinetics following nasal or parenteral challenge with meningococcal polysaccharide in healthy adults.

Limited data are available on the kinetics of meningococcal serogroup C (MenC)-specific antibody responses following parenteral or nasal challenge in those who have received prior MenC vaccination (polysaccharide or conjugate). Young adults who had previously received either meningococcal A/C polysaccharide (MACP) or MenC conjugate (MCC) vaccine or naïve subjects were challenged with MACP via one of two routes, nasal or parenteral. Blood samples were taken prevaccination and on days 1 to 4 and day 10 postvaccination. MenC serum bactericidal antibody (SBA) and MenC-specific IgG were measured. Following parenteral challenge, MenC SBA and IgG responses were seen to occur between 4 and 7 days postchallenge. A lower proportion of subjects responded following nasal challenge, with naïve subjects showing little change in SBA geometric mean titer (GMT) and IgG geometric mean concentration (GMC) over the 10 days following challenge. Increases in SBA GMTs were seen between 4 and 7 days after nasal challenge in those who had received prior MCC and between 7 and 10 days in those who had received prior MACP, and the responses in the prior-MACP group were of lower magnitude than the responses of the prior-MCC group. The data presented here indicate that, following MCC vaccination, memory has been induced at the mucosal level, and these subjects were able to respond with increases in SBA levels. These results demonstrate that the speed of response (primary or secondary) to challenge with MenC polysaccharide via the nasal or parenteral route does not differ and support concerns that immunological memory alone is too slow to provide protection.

Effectiveness of pandemic and seasonal influenza vaccine in preventing pandemic influenza A(H1N1)2009 infection in England and Scotland 2009-2010.

Following the global spread of pandemic influenza A(H1N1)2009, several pandemic vaccines have been rapidly developed. The United Kingdom and many other countries in the northern hemisphere implemented seasonal and pandemic influenza vaccine programmes in October 2009. We present the results of a case­control study to estimate effectiveness of such vaccines in preventing confirmed pandemic influenza infection. Some 5,982 individuals with influenza-like illness seen in general practices between November 2009 and January 2010 were enrolled. Those testing positive on PCR for pandemic influenza were assigned as cases and those testing negative as controls. Vaccine effectiveness was estimated as the relative reduction in odds of confirmed infection between vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals. Fourteen or more days after immunisation with the pandemic vaccine, adjusted vaccine effectiveness (VE) was 72% (95% confidence interval (CI): 21% to 90%). If protection was assumed to start after seven or more days, the adjusted VE was 71% (95% CI: 37% to 87%). Pandemic influenza vaccine was highly effective in preventing confirmed infection with pandemic influenza A(H1N1)2009 from one week after vaccination. No evidence of effectiveness against pandemic influenza A(H1N1)2009 was found for the 2009/10 trivalent seasonal influenza vaccine (adjusted VE of -30% (95% CI: -89% to 11%)).

Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1) 2009 and mortality in the United Kingdom: risk factors for death, April 2009 to March 2010.

This paper describes the epidemiology of fatal pandemic influenza A(H1N1) cases in the United Kingdom (UK) since April 2009 and in particular risk factors associated with death. A fatal case was defined as a UK resident who died between 27 April 2009 and 12 March 2010, in whom pandemic influenza A(H1N1) infection was confirmed by laboratory or recorded on death certificate. Case fatality ratios (CFR) were calculated using the estimated cumulative number of clinical cases as the denominator. The relative risk of death was estimated by comparing the population mortality rate in each risk group, with those not in a risk group. Across the UK, 440 fatal cases were identified. In England, fatal cases were mainly seen in young adults (median age 43 years, 85% under 65 years), unlike for seasonal influenza. The majority (77%) of cases for whom data were available (n=308) had underlying risk factors for severe disease. The CFR in those aged 65 years or over was nine per 1,000 (range 3 - 26) compared to 0.4 (range 0.2 to 0.9) for those aged six months to 64 years. In the age group between six month and 64 years, the relative risk for fatal illness for those in a risk group was 18. The population attributable fractions in this age group were highest for chronic neurological disease (24%), immunosuppression (16%) and respiratory disease (15%). The results highlight the importance of early targeted effective intervention programmes.

Assessment of baseline age-specific antibody prevalence and incidence of infection to novel influenza A/H1N1 2009.

OBJECTIVES: The objectives of the H1N1 2009 serological surveillance project were twofold: to document (1) the prevalence of cross-reactive antibodies to H1N1 2009 by age group in the population of England prior to arrival of the pandemic strain virus in the UK and (2) the age-specific incidence of infection by month as the pandemic progressed by measuring increases in the proportion of individuals with antibodies to H1N1 2009 by age. METHODS: Residual aliquots of samples submitted to 16 microbiology laboratories in eight regions in England in defined age groups in 2008 and stored by the Health Protection Agency serological surveillance programme were used to document age-stratified prevalence of antibodies to H1N1 2009 prior to the arrival of the pandemic in the UK. Functional antibodies to the H1N1 2009 virus were measured by haemagglutination inhibition (HI) and microneutralisation (MN) assays. For timely measurement of monthly incidence of infection with H1N1 2009 between August 2009 and April 2010, the microbiology serum collections were supplemented by collection of residual sera from chemical pathology laboratories in England. Monthly seroincidence samples were tested by HI only, apart from the final sera collected post pandemic in 2010, which were also tested by MN. Incidence during the pandemic was estimated from changes in prevalence between time points and also by a likelihood-based method. SETTING: Eight regions of England. PARTICIPANTS: Serum samples from patients accessing health care in England from whom blood samples were taken for unrelated microbiological or chemical pathology testing. INTERVENTIONS: None. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Baseline age-specific prevalence of functional antibodies to the H1NI 2009 virus prior to the arrival of the pandemic; changes in antibody prevalence during the period August 2009 to April 2010. RESULTS: Pre-existing cross-reactive antibodies to H1N1 2009 were detected in the baseline sera and increased with age, particularly in those born before 1950. The prediction of immunological protection derived from the baseline serological analysis was consistent with the lower clinical attack rates in older age groups. The high levels of susceptibility in children < 15 years, together with their mixing within school, resulted in the highest attack rates in this age group. Serological analysis by region confirms that there were geographical differences in timing of major pandemic waves. London had a big first wave among the 5- to 14-year age group, with the rest of the country reducing the gap after the second wave. Cumulative incidence in London remained higher throughout the pandemic in each age group. By the end of the second wave it is estimated that as many as 70% of school-aged children in London had been infected. Taken together, these observations are consistent with observations from previous pandemics in 1918, 1957 and 1968 - that the major impact of influenza pandemics is on younger age groups, with a pattern of morbidity and mortality distinct from seasonal influenza epidemics. CONCLUSIONS: Serological analysis of appropriately structured, age-stratified and geographically representative samples can provide an immense amount of information to set in context other measures of pandemic impact in a population, and provide the most accurate measures of population exposure. National scale seroepidemiology studies require cross-agency coordination, multidisciplinary working, and considerable scientific resource. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme and the Health Protection Agency.

Rubella seroprevalence in pregnant women in North Thames: estimates based on newborn screening samples.

OBJECTIVES: Routine screening for rubella susceptibility is recommended in the UK so that women found to be susceptible can be offered immunization in the post partum period. We demonstrate the use of newborn dried blood spot samples linked to routine vital statistics datasets to monitor rubella susceptibility in pregnant women and to investigate maternal characteristics as determinants of rubella seronegativity. SETTING: North Thames region of England (including large parts of inner London). METHODS: Maternally acquired rubella IgG antibody levels were measured in 18882 newborn screening blood spot samples. Latent class regression finite mixture models were used to classify samples as seronegative to rubella. Data on maternal country of birth were available through linkage to birth registration data. RESULTS: An estimated 2.7% (95% CI 2.4%-3.0%) of newly delivered women in North Thames were found to be seronegative. Mothers born abroad, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, were more likely to be seronegative than UK-born mothers, with adjusted odds ratios of 4.2 (95% CI 3.1-5.6) and 5.0 (3.8-6.5), respectively. Mothers under 20 years were more likely to be seronegative than those aged 30 to 34. CONCLUSION: Our findings highlight the need for vaccination to be targeted specifically at migrant women and their families to ensure that they are protected from rubella in pregnancy and its serious consequences.

Analysis of rubella antibody distribution from newborn dried blood spots using finite mixture models.

Eluted dried blood spot specimens from newborn screening, collected in 2004 in North Thames and anonymously linked to birth registration data, were tested for maternally acquired rubella IgG antibody as a proxy for maternal antibody concentration using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Finite mixture regression models were fitted to the antibody concentrations from 1964 specimens. The Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) was used as a model selection criterion to avoid over-fitting the number of mixture model components. This allowed investigation of the independent effect of maternal age and maternal country of birth on rubella antibody concentration without dichotomizing the outcome variable using cut-off values set a priori. Mixture models are a highly useful method of analysis in seroprevalence studies of vaccine-preventable infections in which preset cut-off values may overestimate the size of the seronegative population.

The birth prevalence of PKU in populations of European, South Asian and sub-Saharan African ancestry living in South East England.

Phenylketonuria (PKU) is an autosomal recessive inborn error of metabolism (OMIM 261600). Treatment with a low-phenylalanine diet following early ascertainment by newborn screening prevents impaired cognitive development, the major disease phenotype in PKU. The overall birth prevalence of PKU in European, Chinese and Korean populations is approximately 1/10,000. Since the human PAH locus contains PKU-causing alleles and polymorphic core haplotypes that describe and corroborate an out-of-Africa range expansion in modern human populations, it is of interest to know the prevalence of PKU in different ethnic groups with diverse geographical origin. We estimated PKU prevalence in South East England, where a sizeable proportion of the population are of Sub-Saharan African or South Asian ancestry. Over the period 1994 to 2004 167 children were diagnosed with PKU. Using birth registration and census data to derive denominators, PKU birth prevalence per 10,000 live births (95% Bayesian credible intervals) was estimated to be 1.14 (0.96-1.33) among white, 0.11 (0.02-0.37) among black, and 0.29 (0.10-0.63) among Asian ethnic groups. This suggests that PKU is up to an order of magnitude less prevalent in populations with Sub-Saharan African and South Asian ancestry that have migrated to the UK.

Agreement of rubella IgG antibody measured in serum and dried blood spots using two commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays.

Cases of congenital rubella are now rare in the United Kingdom. However, in certain areas such as London, where a significant proportion of pregnant women has been born abroad and uptake of trivalent measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccination is low, the risk of a rubella outbreak remains. Prior to carrying out a seroprevalence study using rubella IgG antibody in newborn dried blood spots as an indirect marker of maternal immunity, rubella IgG antibody concentrations in serum and dried blood spot samples were investigated. Anonymous paired serum-dried blood spot samples left over from occupational health screening were tested for rubella IgG antibody by two commercially available enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) (Dade Behring, Marburg, Germany, and Diesse, Siena, Italy). Agreement between serum samples and dried blood spot samples was high for both assays. There were no significant differences in antibody concentrations in paired samples, as 67 of 73 samples tested with the Diesse ELISA (91.8%), and 76 out of 79 samples tested with the Dade Behring ELISA (96.2%) were within two standard deviations of the mean difference. Commercial ELISAs are an appropriate test for seroprevalence surveys based on rubella IgG in dried blood spot samples.