Predicting new-onset HF in patients undergoing coronary or peripheral angiography: results from the Catheter Sampled Blood Archive in Cardiovascular Diseases (CASABLANCA) study.

AIMS: Methods to identify patients at risk for incident HF would be welcome as such patients might benefit from earlier interventions. METHODS AND RESULTS: From a registry of 1251 patients referred for coronary and/or peripheral angiography, we sought to identify independent predictors of incident HF during follow-up and develop a clinical and biomarker strategy to predict this outcome. There were 991 patients free of prevalent HF at baseline. Cox proportional hazard models were developed to predict adjudicated diagnosis of incident HF. Model discrimination and reclassification were evaluated. At follow-up, 177 (18%) developed new-onset HF. Independent predictors of new-onset HF included five clinical variables (age, male sex, heart rate, history of atrial fibrillation/flutter, and history of hypertension) and two biomarkers (amino-terminal pro-B type natriuretic peptide and ST2). The c-statistic for the model without biomarkers was 0.69; including biomarkers increased the c-statistic to 0.76 (P < 0.001). A score was developed from the model. Patients in the highest score quintile had shortest time to incident HF compared with lower quintiles (log-rank P < 0.001). Following 100 bootstrap iterations, internal validation was confirmed with Harrell's c-statistic of 0.77. Use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, angiotensin receptor blockers, and beta-blockers at enrollment was associated with substantial attenuation of predictive value of the risk score. CONCLUSIONS: Patients undergoing coronary/peripheral angiographic procedures are a population at high risk for incident HF. We describe an accurate clinical and biomarker strategy for predicting incident HF and possibly intervening in such patients (NCT00842868).

Incident Type 2 Myocardial Infarction in a Cohort of Patients Undergoing Coronary or Peripheral Arterial Angiography.

BACKGROUND: Despite growing recognition of type 2 myocardial infarction (T2MI; related to supply/demand mismatch), little is known about its risk factors or its association with outcome. METHODS: A single-center cohort of patients undergoing coronary or peripheral angiography with or without intervention was prospectively enrolled and followed for incident type 1 and T2MI, and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE, a composite of all-cause death, nonfatal myocardial infarction [MI], heart failure, stroke, transient ischemic attack, peripheral arterial complication, and cardiac arrhythmia), as well. T2MI was adjudicated using criteria from the Third Universal Definition of MI. Baseline characteristics, blood samples, and angiography information were obtained. Major end points subsequent to first MI were assessed using landmark analyses to compare the rates of first events only where everyone with a prior history of any MACE before MI were censored and adjusted for follow-up times. Cox proportional hazard models were used for time-to-event analyses with age and sex forced into all models and additional covariates evaluated by using the stepwise option for the selection. RESULTS: One thousand two hundred fifty-one patients were enrolled and followed for a median of 3.4 years. Of these patients, 152 (12.2%) had T2MI during follow-up; T2MI was frequently recurrent. Multivariable predictors of T2MI were older age, lower systolic blood pressure, history of coronary artery disease, heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes mellitus, nitrate use, and elevated concentrations of glucose, N-terminal pro-B type natriuretic peptide, and cystatin C. Patients with T2MI had higher rates of subsequent adverse events than those without T2MI (per 100 person-years: MACE, 53.7 versus 21.1, P<0.001; all-cause death, 23.3 versus 3.3, P<0.001; cardiovascular death, 17.5 versus 2.6, P<0.001; heart failure events, 22.4 versus 7.4, P<0.001); these rates are similar to those seen in patients with type 1 MI. Incident diagnosis of T2MI strongly predicted risk for subsequent MACE (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.90; 95% confidence interval, 1.46-2.48; P<0.001), all-cause death (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.96; 95% confidence interval, 2.01-4.36; P<0.001), and cardiovascular death (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.16; 95% confidence interval, 1.36-3.43; P=0.001). CONCLUSIONS: T2MI is common and associated with poor prognosis. Studies evaluating treatment strategies for management of T2MI are needed. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00842868.

Analysis of BAG3 plasma concentrations in patients with acutely decompensated heart failure.

BACKGROUND: BCL-2-associated athanogene 3 (BAG3) is a protein implicated in the cardiomyocyte stress response and genesis of cardiomyopathy. Extracellular BAG3 is measurable in patients with heart failure (HF), but the relationship of BAG3 with HF prognosis is unclear. METHODS: BAG3 plasma concentrations were measured in 39 acutely decompensated HF patients; the primary endpoint was death at 1 year. Baseline characteristics were compared by vital status and median BAG3 concentration. Correlation of BAG3 with left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and other biomarkers was performed. Prognostic value was assessed using Cox proportional hazards regression and Kaplan-Meier analysis. RESULTS: At baseline, median BAG3 was significantly higher in decedents (N=11) than survivors (N=28; 1489 ng/mL versus 50 ng/mL; P=0.04); decedents also had worse renal function and higher median natriuretic peptide (NP) and sST2. BAG3 was not significantly correlated with NPs, mid-regional pro-adrenomedullin, sST2, or eGFR, however. Mortality was increased in patients with supra-median BAG3 (>336 ng/mL; 42.1% versus 15.0%, P=0.06). In age and LVEF-adjusted Cox proportional hazards, BAG3 remained a significant mortality predictor (HR=3.20; 95% CI=1.34-7.65; P=0.02); those with supra-median BAG3 had significantly shorter time-to-death (P=0.04). CONCLUSION: The stress response protein BAG3 is measurable in patients with ADHF and may be prognostic for death.