On the potential for climate change impacts on marine anthropogenic radioactivity in the Arctic regions.

Current predictions as to the impacts of climate change in general and Arctic climate change in particular are such that a wide range of processes relevant to Arctic contaminants are potentially vulnerable. Of these, radioactive contaminants and the processes that govern their transport and fate may be particularly susceptible to the effects of a changing Arctic climate. This paper explores the potential changes in the physical system of the Arctic climate system as they are deducible from present day knowledge and model projections. As a contribution to a better preparedness regarding Arctic marine contamination with radioactivity we present and discuss how a changing marine physical environment may play a role in altering the current understanding pertaining to behavior of contaminant radionuclides in the marine environment of the Arctic region.

The dispersion of 99Tc in the Nordic Seas and the Arctic Ocean: a comparison of model results and observations.

The radionuclide (99)Tc had been discharged from the nuclear reprocessing facility in Sellafield (UK) into the Irish Sea in increased amounts in the 1990s. We compare the simulated dispersion of (99)Tc in surface water as calculated by a hydrodynamic model and an assessment box model with field-observations from 1996 to 1999 to study concentrations, pathways and travel times. The model results are consistent with the observations and show the typical pathway of dissolved radionuclides from the Irish Sea via the North Sea along the Norwegian Coast. Subsequently the contaminated water separates into three branches of which the two Arctic branches bear the potential for future monitoring of the signal in the next decades. The results of the hydrodynamic model indicate a large variability of surface concentrations in the West Spitsbergen Current which has implications for future monitoring strategies. According to the observed and simulated distributions we suggest an improved box model structure to better capture the pattern for concentrations at the surface.