High-risk sex offenders may not be high risk forever.

This study examined the extent to which sexual offenders present an enduring risk for sexual recidivism over a 20-year follow-up period. Using an aggregated sample of 7,740 sexual offenders from 21 samples, the yearly recidivism rates were calculated using survival analysis. Overall, the risk of sexual recidivism was highest during the first few years after release, and decreased substantially the longer individuals remained sex offense-free in the community. This pattern was particularly strong for the high-risk sexual offenders (defined by Static-99R scores). Whereas the 5-year sexual recidivism rate for high-risk sex offenders was 22% from the time of release, this rate decreased to 4.2% for the offenders in the same static risk category who remained offense-free in the community for 10 years. The recidivism rates of the low-risk offenders were consistently low (1%-5%) for all time periods. The results suggest that offense history is a valid, but time-dependent, indicator of the propensity to sexually reoffend. Further research is needed to explain the substantial rate of desistance by high-risk sexual offenders.

Predicting Treatment Attrition Among Seriously Violent Offenders: An Application of the Directionality Model.

Treatment completion by violent offenders results in fewer victims and less violence in society. As researchers and members of society, we have a compelling interest in finding ways to keep violent male offenders in effective treatment programs. This study examines file-rated predictors of treatment attrition from an institutionally based program for persistently violent offenders. Each of the three prediction models of institutionally based treatment attrition included the predictors of motivation for assistance and prior treatment dosage: (a) the past criminal behavior model, (b) the recent antisocial behavior model, and (c) the non-antisocial instability model. Recent antisocial behavior did not improve the prediction of treatment attrition over the past criminal behavior model. Motivation for assistance did not make a contribution in the recent antisocial behavior or the non-antisocial instability models while prior treatment dosage consistently contributed to the prediction of attrition across the models. Recent non-antisocial behavior is important to offender treatment attrition.

Sexual offender recidivism risk: what we know and what we need to know.

If all sexual offenders are dangerous, why bother assessing their risk to reoffend? Follow-up studies, however, typically find sexual recidivism rates of 10%-15% after five years, 20% after 10 years, and 30%-40% after 20 years. The observed rates underestimate the actual rates because not all offences are detected; however, the available research does not support the popular notion that sexual offenders inevitably reoffend. Some sexual offenders are more dangerous than others. Much is known about the static, historical factors associated with increased recidivism risk (e.g., prior offences, age, and relationship to victims). Less is known about the offender characteristics that need to change in order to reduce that risk. There has been considerable research in recent years demonstrating that structured risk assessments are more accurate than unstructured clinical assessments. Nevertheless, the limitations of actuarial risk assessments are sufficient that experts have yet to reach consensus on the best methods for combining risk factors into an overall evaluation.

First report of the collaborative outcome data project on the effectiveness of psychological treatment for sex offenders.

This meta-analytic review examined the effectiveness of psychological treatment for sex offenders by summarizing data from 43 studies (combined n = 9,454). Averaged across all studies, the sexual offence recidivism rate was lower for the treatment groups (12.3%) than the comparison groups (16.8%, 38 studies, unweighted average). A similar pattern was found for general recidivism, although the overall rates were predictably higher (treatment 27.9%, comparison 39.2%, 30 studies). Current treatments (cognitive-behavioral, k = 13; systemic, k = 2) were associated with reductions in both sexual recidivism (from 17.4 to 9.9%) and general recidivism (from 51 to 32%). Older forms of treatment (operating prior to 1980) appeared to have little effect. Future directions for improving the quality of sex offender treatment outcome evaluations are discussed.