Combinations of early signs of critical illness predict in-hospital death-the SOCCER study (signs of critical conditions and emergency responses).

BACKGROUND: Medical emergency team (MET) call criteria are late signs of a deteriorating clinical condition. Some early signs predict in-hospital death but have a high prevalence so their use as single sign call criteria could be wasteful of resources. This study searched a large database to explore the association of combinations of recordings of early signs (ES), or early with late signs (LS) with in-hospital death. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was undertaken of 3046 non-do not attempt resuscitation adult admissions in 5 hospitals without MET over 14 days. The medical records were reviewed for recordings of 26 ES and 21 LS and in-hospital death. Combinations of ES with or without LS were examined as predictors of death. Global modified early warning scores (GMEWS) were calculated. FINDINGS: ES with LS, plus LS only, had higher odd ratios than ES alone. Four combinations of ES were strongly associated with death: cardiovascular plus respiratory with decrease in urinary output, cardiovascular plus respiratory with a decrease in consciousness, respiratory with decrease in urinary output, and cardiovascular plus respiratory. In other combinations, recordings of SpO2 90-95%, systolic blood pressure 80-100 mmHg or decrease in urinary output in turn occurring with one or more disturbed blood gas variable were associated with death. Compared with admissions whose GMEWS were 0-2, admissions with GMEWS 5-15 were 27.1 times more likely to die while those with GMEWS 3-4 were 6.5 times more likely. CONCLUSIONS: The results support the inclusion of early signs of a deteriorating clinical condition in sets of call criteria.

Signs of critical conditions and emergency responses (SOCCER): a model for predicting adverse events in the inpatient setting.

BACKGROUND: Emergency response systems (ERS) are based on a set of triggers used to identify patients "at risk". This study aimed to establish the association between recordings of disturbed physiological variables and adverse events. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey of 3,046 non Do Not Attempt Resuscitation (non DNAR) adult admissions in five hospitals over 14 days. Medical records were reviewed for 26 early signs (ES) and 21 late signs (LS) of critical conditions and serious adverse events (SAE): death, cardiac arrest, severe respiratory problems, or transfer to a critical care area. The LS included published medical emergency team (MET) call criteria. FINDINGS: There were 12,384 ES and 1,410 LS. The 'top five' ES and the odds (OR) for death were: base deficit -5 to -8 mmol/L=40.2 (95% C.I. 7.7-208.8), partial airway obstruction OR=38.7 (3.9-64.4), poor peripheral circulation OR=34.4 (6.8-174.0), >expected drain fluid loss OR=30.1 (6.1-148.9), pH <7.3 >7.2 OR=29.0 (3.1-268.3). For LS: urine output <200 mL in 24 h OR=188.6 (95% C.I. 30.1-1179.8), pH <7.2 OR=116.1 (7.1-1906.1), unresponsive to voice OR=34.8 (10.7-113.0), anuric OR=29.0 (3.1-268.3), base deficit <-8.0 mmol/L OR=29.0 (3.1-268.3). OR for the other SAE were similar. Pulse oximetry abnormalities were associated with all SAE. The risk for death for ES: SpO2 90-95% OR=8.1 (3.0-21.3) and LS: SpO2 <90% OR=9.0 (4.2-19.4). INTERPRETATION: Both ES and LS were associated with adverse events. This study confirms the validity of current MET call criteria but points to the need to expand them. It provides a possible explanation for the failure to demonstrate efficacy of a MET in some trials because current call criteria maybe too late in the progress of the patient's critical condition. It allows the modelling of ERS and education programmes focused on signs of critical conditions. It potentially brings together ICU outreach and ward based responses. Broader use of clinical signs, monitoring such as pulse oximetry and objective data such as blood gas results may assist early intervention and help prevent loss of life.

Sedative drug requirements during bronchoscopy are higher in cystic fibrosis after lung transplantation.

BACKGROUND: We noted that patients with cystic fibrosis tended to need higher doses of sedatives during bronchoscopy. We undertook this study to assess the sedative drug doses administered during bronchoscopy in lung transplant recipients and to assess if there is a change in the dosage requirements over time following lung transplantation. METHODS: In all, 773 transbronchial biopsy procedures performed via flexible bronchoscopy were analyzed in 140 consecutive lung transplant recipients. Conscious sedation was achieved with intermittent boluses of intravenous midazolam and fentanyl. Intravenous propofol boluses of 10 to 30 mg were administered when optimal sedation was not achieved with midazolam doses of 0.20 to 0.25 mg/kg and fentanyl 2 to 2.5 micrograms/kg. RESULTS: Mean doses of midazolam and fentanyl administered were 0.15+/-0.07 mg/kg (range 0.02 to 0.44 mg/kg) and 1.8+/-0.8 micrograms/kg (range 0.1 to 6.67 micrograms/kg) respectively. Midazolam and fentanyl doses administered to patients with cystic fibrosis were the highest compared to those with other disease types (P<0.0001). Examining the sedative doses administered over time following transplantation, there was a significant linear (P<0.001) and quadratic (P=0.0023) effect of time for midazolam and a significant linear (P=0.003) and a trend (P=0.08) for a quadratic effect for fentanyl. Propofol was effectively used in seven lung transplant recipients in whom adequate sedation could not be achieved with high doses of midazolam and fentanyl. CONCLUSIONS: There is an increase in sedative drug requirement with time for both midazolam and fentanyl after transplantation, which is significantly higher in patients with cystic fibrosis.

The prevalence of recordings of the signs of critical conditions and emergency responses in hospital wards--the SOCCER study.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prevalence of recordings in case notes of disturbed physiological variables in adult admissions in general hospital wards. DESIGN AND SETTING: Retrospective cross-sectional survey of 3160 admissions in general wards in five hospitals in a 14-day period. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Recordings of 26 potential early signs (ES) and 21 potential late signs (LS) of critical conditions. Eight late signs were classified as Liverpool Hospital Equivalent Calling Signs (LES). RESULTS: 54.7% admissions had at least one recording of early signs, 16.0% late signs and 6.4% LES. When ranked in order of recordings per 100 admissions, the top five ES were SpO(2) 90-95% (193.7), systolic blood pressure (SBP) 80-100 mmHg (85.2), pulse rate 40-49 or 121-140 b/min (32.0), SBP 181-240 mmHg (23.0) and "Other" (22.1) (mainly breathlessness or temperature > 38 degrees C). The top five LS were SpO2 < 90% (31.5), pulse rate < 40 or > 140 /min (6.6), SBP < 80 mmHg (4.2), GCS < or = 8 (3.8) and unresponsiveness to verbal commands (2.4). There were average signs per admission of ES 4.4, LS 0.6 and LES 0.19. Although there were differences in rates of recordings of signs across the five hospitals, the patterns of top 10 most frequent were similar. CONCLUSIONS: There was a high incidence of recordings of disturbed physiological variables in general ward patients. Changes to hospital emergency response systems to include rapidly responding teams to patients with the signs of developing critical conditions should be supported by training programmes for ward staff on the early recognition and management of patients with the warning signs.