Supporting proactive planning for climate change adaptation and conservation using an attributed road-river structure dataset.

Freshwater species and their habitats, and transportation networks are at heightened risk from changing climate and are priorities for adaptation, with the sheer abundance and individuality of road-river structures complicating mitigation efforts. We present a new spatial dataset of road-river structures attributed as culverts, bridges, or fords, and use this along with data on gradient and stream order to estimate structure sensitivity and exposure in and out of special areas of conservation (SAC) and built-up areas to determine vulnerability to damage across river catchments in Wales, UK. We then assess hazard of flooding likelihood at the most vulnerable structures to determine those posing high risk of impact on roads and river-obligate species (fishes and mussels) whose persistence depends on aquatic habitat connectivity. Over 5% (624/11,680) of structures are high vulnerability and located where flooding hazard is highest, posing high risk of impact to roads and river-obligate species. We assess reliability of our approach through an on-ground survey in a river catchment supporting an SAC and more than 40% (n = 255) of high-risk structures, and show that of the subset surveyed >50% had obvious physical degradation, streambank erosion, and scouring. Our findings help us to better understand which structures pose high-risk of impact to river-obligate species and humans with increased flooding likelihood.

Metric forensic anthropology decisions: Reliability and biasability of sectioning-point-based sex estimates.

Subjective decisions make human cognitive processes more susceptible to bias and error. Specifically, research indicates that additional context biases forensic anthropologists' morphological analyses. To address whether metric analyses are also subject to bias, we conducted a pilot study in which 52 experienced osteologists measured a difficult-to-classify human femur, with or without additional contextual information. Using a metric sectioning-point sex-estimation method, participants provided a sex estimate for individual skeletal element(s) and, when given multiple elements, the combined skeletal assemblage. Control group participants (n = 24) measured only the femur. In addition to the femur, bias group participants (n = 28) either measured a female humerus and viewed a female-biasing photograph (n = 14) or measured a male humerus and viewed a male-biasing photograph (n = 14). We explored whether the experts in the different groups would differ in: (1) femoral measurements; (2) femoral sex-estimation conclusions; and (3) final sex-estimation conclusions for the skeletal assemblage. Although the femoral measurements and femoral sex estimates were comparable across groups, the overall sex estimates in the female-biased group were impacted by contextual information-differing from both the control and male-biased groups (p < 0.001). Our results demonstrate that cognitive bias can occur even in metric sex-estimation conclusions. Specifically, this occurred when the metric data and single-element sex estimates were synthesized into an overall estimate. Thus, our results suggest that metric methods are most vulnerable to bias when data are synthesized into an overall conclusion, highlighting the need for bias countermeasures and comprehensive statistical frameworks for synthesizing metric data to mitigate the effects of cognitive bias.

Responding to the American Academy of Forensic Sciences vision, mission, and values statements: Comments, revisions, and proposed actions.

•We call for revisions to the current AAFS vision, mission, and values statements.•Truly aspirational statements will provide guiding principles for forensic scientists.•Revisions should meaningfully engage with issues of diversity and equity.•Our goal of pursuing justice should also extend to our practitioner community.•We envision AAFS committees of diverse membership making positive changes to the statements.

A hierarchy of expert performance as applied to forensic anthropology.

Due to their medicolegal repercussions, forensic anthropology conclusions must be reliable, consistent, and minimally compromised by bias. Yet, a synthetic analysis of the reliability and biasability of the discipline's methods has not yet been conducted. To do so, this study utilized Dror's (2016) hierarchy of expert performance (HEP), an eight-level model aimed at examining intra- and inter-expert reliability and biasability (the potential for cognitive bias) within the literature of forensic science disciplines. A systematic review of the forensic anthropology literature was conducted (1972-present), including papers published in the American Journal of Physical Anthropology, Forensic Anthropology, Forensic Science International, and the Journal of Forensic Sciences and Anthropology Section abstracts published in the Proceedings of the Annual Meeting of the AAFS which matched keywords such as "forensic anthropology," "bias," "reliability," "cognition," "cognitive," or "error." The resulting forensic anthropology HEP showcases areas that have ample research and areas where more research can be conducted. Specifically, statistically significant increases in reliability (p < 0.001) and biasability (p < 0.001) publications were found since 2009 (publication of the NAS report). Extensive research examined the reliability of forensic anthropological observations and conclusions (n = 744 publications). However, minimal research investigated the biasability of forensic anthropological observations and conclusions (n = 20 publications). Notably, while several studies demonstrated the biasing effect of extraneous information on anthropological morphological assessments, there was no research into these effects on anthropological metric assessments. The findings revealed by the forensic anthropology HEP can help to guide future research, ultimately informing the development and refinement of best-practice standards for the discipline.

The influence of bait on remote underwater video observations in shallow-water coastal environments associated with the North-Eastern Atlantic.

The use of baited remote underwater video (BRUV) for examining and monitoring marine biodiversity in temperate marine environments is rapidly growing, however many aspects of their effectiveness relies on assumptions based on studies from the Southern Hemisphere. The addition of bait to underwater camera systems acts as a stimulus for attracting individuals towards the camera field of view, however knowledge of the effectiveness of different bait types in northern temperate climbs is limited, particularly in dynamic coastal environments. Studies in the Southern Hemisphere indicate that oily baits are most effective whilst bait volume and weight do not impact BRUV effectiveness to any great degree. The present study assesses the influence of four bait types (mackerel, squid, crab and no bait (control)) on the relative abundance, taxonomic diversity and faunal assemblage composition at two independent locations within the North-Eastern Atlantic region; Swansea Bay, UK and Ria Formosa Lagoon, Portugal. Two different bait quantities (50 g and 350 g) were further trialled in Swansea Bay. Overall, patterns showed that baited deployments recorded statistically higher values of relative abundance and taxonomic diversity when compared to un-baited deployments in Swansea Bay but not in Ria Formosa Lagoon. No statistical evidence singled out one bait type as best performing for attracting higher abundances and taxonomic diversity in both locations. Faunal assemblage composition was however found to differ with bait type in Swansea Bay, with mackerel and squid attracting higher abundances of scavenging species compared to the crab and control treatments. With the exception of squid, bait quantity had minimal influence on bait attractiveness. It is recommended for consistency that a minimum of 50 g of cheap, oily fish such as mackerel is used as bait for BRUV deployments in shallow dynamic coastal environments in the North-Eastern Atlantic Region.

Modelling built infrastructure heights to evaluate common assumptions in aquatic conservation.

Built infrastructure, such as dams and weirs, are some of the most impactful stressors affecting aquatic ecosystems. However, data on the distribution and characteristics of small built infrastructure that often restrict fish movement, impede flows, and retain sediments and materials, remain limited. Collection of this necessary information is challenged by the large number of built infrastructure with unknown dimensions (e.g., height), which means scientists and practitioners need to make assumptions about these characteristics in research and decision-making. Evaluating these common assumptions is essential for advancing conservation that is more effective. We use a statistical modelling approach to double the number of small (≤5 m high) built infrastructure with height values in France. Using two scenarios depicting common assumptions (all infrastructure without height data are impassable, or all are passable for all species) and one based on our modelled heights, we demonstrate how assumptions can influence our understanding of river fragmentation. Assuming all built infrastructure without height data are passable results in a 5-fold reduction in estimated river fragmentation for fish species that cannot pass built infrastructure ≥1.0 m. The opposite is true for fish species that cannot pass ≥2.0 m, where assuming all built infrastructure without height data are impassable results in a 7-fold increase in fragmentation compared to the scenario with modelled heights to attribute built infrastructure passability. Our findings suggest that modelled height data leads to better understanding of river fragmentation, and that knowledge of different fish species' abilities to pass a variety of built infrastructure is essential to guide more effective management strategies. Our modelling approach, and results, are of particular relevance to regions where efforts to both remediate and remove built infrastructure is occurring, but where gaps in data on characteristics of built infrastructure remain, and limit effective decision making.

Poetry as a Creative Practice to Enhance Engagement and Learning in Conservation Science.

Creativity is crucial to the capacity to do science well, to communicate it in compelling ways, and to enhance learning. Creativity can be both practiced and enhanced to strengthen conservation science professionals' efforts to address global environmental challenges. We explore how poetry is one creative approach that can further conservation scientists' engagement and learning. We draw on evidence from peer-reviewed literature to illustrate benefits of integrating science and poetry, and to ground our argument for the growth of a science-poetry community to help conservation scientists develop skills in creative practices as a component of professional development. We present examples from literature as well as two short poetry exercises for scientists to draw on when considering writing poetry, or deciding on forms of poetry to include, in their practice. Opportunity exists to grow science-poetry projects to further our understanding of what such initiatives can offer.

The need for spatially explicit quantification of benefits in invasive-species management.

Worldwide, invasive species are a leading driver of environmental change across terrestrial, marine, and freshwater environments and cost billions of dollars annually in ecological damages and economic losses. Resources limit invasive-species control, and planning processes are needed to identify cost-effective solutions. Thus, studies are increasingly considering spatially variable natural and socioeconomic assets (e.g., species persistence, recreational fishing) when planning the allocation of actions for invasive-species management. There is a need to improve understanding of how such assets are considered in invasive-species management. We reviewed over 1600 studies focused on management of invasive species, including flora and fauna. Eighty-four of these studies were included in our final analysis because they focused on the prioritization of actions for invasive species management. Forty-five percent (n = 38) of these studies were based on spatial optimization methods, and 35% (n = 13) accounted for spatially variable assets. Across all 84 optimization studies considered, 27% (n = 23) explicitly accounted for spatially variable assets. Based on our findings, we further explored the potential costs and benefits to invasive species management when spatially variable assets are explicitly considered or not. To include spatially variable assets in decision-making processes that guide invasive-species management there is a need to quantify environmental responses to invasive species and to enhance understanding of potential impacts of invasive species on different natural or socioeconomic assets. We suggest these gaps could be filled by systematic reviews, quantifying invasive species impacts on native species at different periods, and broadening sources and enhancing sharing of knowledge.

Optimal allocation of Red List assessments to guide conservation of biodiversity in a rapidly changing world.

The IUCN Red List is the most extensive source of conservation status assessments for species worldwide, but important gaps in coverage remain. Here, we demonstrate the use of a spatial prioritization approach to efficiently prioritize species assessments to achieve increased and up-to-date coverage efficiently. We focus on freshwater fishes, which constitute a significant portion of vertebrate diversity, although comprehensive assessments are available for only 46% of species. We used marxan to identify ecoregions for future assessments that maximize the coverage of species while accounting for anthropogenic stress. We identified a set of priority regions that would help assess one-third (ca 4000 species) of all freshwater fishes in need of assessment by 2020. Such assessments could be achieved without increasing current investment levels. Our approach is suitable for any taxon and can help ensure that species threat assessments are sufficiently complete to guide global conservation efforts in a rapidly changing world.

Systematic planning of disconnection to enhance conservation success in a modified world.

Maintaining spatial-temporal connectivity for conservation is necessary to allow the persistence of ecological processes and the biodiversity they sustain. However, conservation practice in human-modified environments can also benefit from prescribed disconnection through the implementation of barriers. Barriers, such as fences or dams, and buffer zones can be a cost-effective way of addressing threats caused by a globally connected world, such as the propagation of invasive species and diseases, creating refuge areas for native biodiversity and helping reduce economic losses caused by native wildlife or invasive species. Despite the global attention that disconnection has received, no clear framework exists to guide the allocation of barriers for conservation management. Here we propose that the implementation of barriers for conservation should be systematically planned, considering ecological trade-offs for multiple species (easing threats vs. interruption of ecosystem processes) and socio-economic cost-benefits (implementation cost vs. reduced human-wildlife conflicts), rather than using ad-hoc opportunistic criteria or accommodating conservation needs for individual species. Such a systematic approach is necessary to ensure both socially acceptable and ecologically effective use of disconnections as a conservation tool and ideally planned across different realms so co-benefits or trade-offs can be accounted for. However, any implementation of disconnection for conservation should be cautiously considered if uncertainty in effectiveness of the barrier and ecological impacts to other species are high. We also suggest the need for improved approaches to monitoring to learn from previous successes and failures. Our recommendations should guide the systematic evaluation and allocation of barriers to help enhance the value of this conservation tool in the face of increasing propagation of threats worldwide. However, new tools and collaborative frameworks across different realms are needed to help stakeholders make better informed decision.

A multidisciplinary conceptualization of conservation opportunity.

An opportunity represents an advantageous combination of circumstances that allows goals to be achieved. We reviewed the nature of opportunity and how it manifests in different subsystems (e.g., biophysical, social, political, economic) as conceptualized in other bodies of literature, including behavior, adoption, entrepreneur, public policy, and resilience literature. We then developed a multidisciplinary conceptualization of conservation opportunity. We identified 3 types of conservation opportunity: potential, actors remove barriers to problem solving by identifying the capabilities within the system that can be manipulated to create support for conservation action; traction, actors identify windows of opportunity that arise from exogenous shocks, events, or changes that remove barriers to solving problems; and existing, everything is in place for conservation action (i.e., no barriers exist) and an actor takes advantage of the existing circumstances to solve problems. Different leverage points characterize each type of opportunity. Thus, unique stages of opportunity identification or creation and exploitation exist: characterizing the system and defining problems; identifying potential solutions; assessing the feasibility of solutions; identifying or creating opportunities; and taking advantage of opportunities. These stages can be undertaken independently or as part of a situational analysis and typically comprise the first stage, but they can also be conducted iteratively throughout a conservation planning process. Four types of entrepreneur can be identified (business, policy, social, and conservation), each possessing attributes that enable them to identify or create opportunities and take advantage of them. We examined how different types of conservation opportunity manifest in a social-ecological system (the Great Barrier Reef) and how they can be taken advantage of. Our multidisciplinary conceptualization of conservation opportunity strengthens and legitimizes the concept.

A mid-term analysis of progress toward international biodiversity targets.

In 2010, the international community, under the auspices of the Convention on Biological Diversity, agreed on 20 biodiversity-related "Aichi Targets" to be achieved within a decade. We provide a comprehensive mid-term assessment of progress toward these global targets using 55 indicator data sets. We projected indicator trends to 2020 using an adaptive statistical framework that incorporated the specific properties of individual time series. On current trajectories, results suggest that despite accelerating policy and management responses to the biodiversity crisis, the impacts of these efforts are unlikely to be reflected in improved trends in the state of biodiversity by 2020. We highlight areas of societal endeavor requiring additional efforts to achieve the Aichi Targets, and provide a baseline against which to assess future progress.

Threats and opportunities for freshwater conservation under future land use change scenarios in the United States.

Freshwater ecosystems provide vital resources for humans and support high levels of biodiversity, yet are severely threatened throughout the world. The expansion of human land uses, such as urban and crop cover, typically degrades water quality and reduces freshwater biodiversity, thereby jeopardizing both biodiversity and ecosystem services. Identifying and mitigating future threats to freshwater ecosystems requires forecasting where land use changes are most likely. Our goal was to evaluate the potential consequences of future land use on freshwater ecosystems in the coterminous United States by comparing alternative scenarios of land use change (2001-2051) with current patterns of freshwater biodiversity and water quality risk. Using an econometric model, each of our land use scenarios projected greater changes in watersheds of the eastern half of the country, where freshwater ecosystems already experience higher stress from human activities. Future urban expansion emerged as a major threat in regions with high freshwater biodiversity (e.g., the Southeast) or severe water quality problems (e.g., the Midwest). Our scenarios reflecting environmentally oriented policies had some positive effects. Subsidizing afforestation for carbon sequestration reduced crop cover and increased natural vegetation in areas that are currently stressed by low water quality, while discouraging urban sprawl diminished urban expansion in areas of high biodiversity. On the other hand, we found that increases in crop commodity prices could lead to increased agricultural threats in areas of high freshwater biodiversity. Our analyses illustrate the potential for policy changes and market factors to influence future land use trends in certain regions of the country, with important consequences for freshwater ecosystems. Successful conservation of aquatic biodiversity and ecosystem services in the United States into the future will require attending to the potential threats and opportunities arising from policies and market changes affecting land use.

The relationship between measurement method and corneal structure on apparent intraocular pressure in glaucoma and ocular hypertension.

PURPOSE: To analyse the relationship between measured intraocular pressure (IOP) and central corneal thickness (CCT), corneal hysteresis (CH) and corneal resistance factor (CRF) in ocular hypertension (OHT), primary open-angle (POAG) and normal tension glaucoma (NTG) eyes using multiple tonometry devices. METHODS: Right eyes of patients diagnosed with OHT (n=47), normal tension glaucoma (n=17) and POAG (n=50) were assessed. IOP was measured in random order with four devices: Goldmann applanation tonometry (GAT); Pascal dynamic contour tonometer (DCT); Reichert ocular response analyser (ORA); and Tono-Pen XL. CCT was then measured using a hand-held ultrasonic pachymeter. CH and CRF were derived from the air pressure to corneal reflectance relationship of the ORA data. RESULTS: Compared to the GAT, the Tonopen and ORA Goldmann equivalent (IOPg) and corneal compensated (IOPcc) measured higher IOP readings (F=19.351, p<0.001), particularly in NTG (F=12.604, p<0.001). DCT was closest to Goldmann IOP and had the lowest variance. CCT was significantly different (F=8.305, p<0.001) between the 3 conditions as was CH (F=6.854, p=0.002) and CRF (F=19.653, p<0.001). IOPcc measures were not affected by CCT. The DCT was generally not affected by corneal biomechanical factors. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that as the true pressure of the eye cannot be determined non-invasively, measurements from any tonometer should be interpreted with care, particularly when alterations in the corneal tissue are suspected.

Social factors and private benefits influence landholders' riverine restoration priorities in tropical Australia.

Private land conservation is an essential component of conservation that requires organizing both protection and restoration actions accordingly. Yet private land conservation programs are often formulated to generate public benefits, with inadequate consideration of costs or benefits to private landholders. Landholders' willingness to participate in conservation programs depends on a complex set of social factors, and the benefits they expect from participation. However, these two attributes are commonly evaluated independent of one another. We addressed this limitation through interviews aimed at determining landholders': 1) willingness to participate in restoration programs; 2) barriers to participation; 3) prioritization of proposed riverine restoration actions; 4) expected public or private benefits for undertaking proposed riverine restoration actions; and 5) most preferred incentive for undertaking proposed restoration actions on their land. Our results revealed four main findings. First, landholders stated that biases towards ecological rather than production outcomes, impractical programs, and government mistrust (structural factors) were the major barriers that prevented them from participating in riverine restoration on their land. Second, private benefits influenced landholders' willingness to engage riverine restoration. Third, 'a sense of stewardship and improved landscape aesthetics' (an internal factor) was the most commonly reported private benefit. Fourth, the most preferred incentives for high priority restoration actions were cash for on-ground works, extension and community recognition. We highlight the importance of designing private land conservation programs that align with landholders' priorities and deliver public benefits.

Fresh waters and fish diversity: distribution, protection and disturbance in tropical Australia.

BACKGROUND: Given the globally poor protection of fresh waters for their intrinsic ecological values, assessments are needed to determine how well fresh waters and supported fish species are incidentally protected within existing terrestrial protected-area networks, and to identify their vulnerability to human-induced disturbances. To date, gaps in data have severely constrained any attempt to explore the representation of fresh waters in tropical regions. METHODOLOGY AND RESULTS: We determined the distribution of fresh waters and fish diversity in the Wet Tropics of Queensland, Australia. We then used distribution data of fresh waters, fish species, human-induced disturbances, and the terrestrial protected-area network to assess the effectiveness of terrestrial protected areas for fresh waters and fish species. We also identified human-induced disturbances likely to influence the effectiveness of freshwater protection and evaluated the vulnerability of fresh waters to these disturbances within and outside protected areas. The representation of fresh waters and fish species in the protected areas of the Wet Tropics is poor: 83% of stream types defined by order, 75% of wetland types, and 89% of fish species have less than 20% of their total Wet Tropics length, area or distribution completely within IUCN category II protected areas. Numerous disturbances affect fresh waters both within and outside of protected areas despite the high level of protection afforded to terrestrial areas in the Wet Tropics (>60% of the region). High-order streams and associated wetlands are influenced by the greatest number of human-induced disturbances and are also the least protected. Thirty-two percent of stream length upstream of protected areas has at least one human-induced disturbance present. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We demonstrate the need for greater consideration of explicit protection and off-reserve management for fresh waters and supported biodiversity by showing that, even in a region where terrestrial protection is high, it does not adequately capture fresh waters.

Effective control of aquatic invasive species in tropical Australia.

Often ecologists and natural resource managers can easily access data on invasive species occurrence across a region. Yet, collecting species abundance data over a large area is arguably more important for decision making, but inherently costly, so methods which can provide robust information at low-cost are particularly valuable. Studies of species distribution often use occurrence data to build models of the environmental niche. Environmental suitability derived from such models may be used to predict the potential distributions of species. The ability of such models to predict spatial patterns in abundance have recently been demonstrated. Here we tested the relationship of environmental suitability with local abundance of an aquatic invasive species, olive hymenachne (Hymenachne amplexicaulis) in the Wet Tropics of Australia. Ordinary least squares and quantile regressions revealed a positive relationship between environmental suitability and local abundance of olive hymenachne. We expand on this and use the relationship between environmental suitability and local abundance to quantify the effectiveness of management (reduction in local abundance) under four different management investments. We show that the upper limit of abundance can be used to evaluate management effectiveness based on varying investments, and that ongoing management is the most effective at reducing local abundance. We discuss implications of this in addressing important problems in invasive species management.