Fallout risk following a major nuclear attack on the United States.

Fallout distributions are calculated for nuclear attacks on the contiguous United States. Four attack scenarios are treated, including counterforce and counterforce-countervalue attacks, for meteorological conditions associated with a typical day in summer and one in winter. The countervalue attacks contain mostly airbursts. To determine fallout effects, the population surviving the prompt effects is first calculated. For the prompt effects, a "conflagration-type" model is used. The counterforce attack produces about 8 million prompt deaths, and the counterforce-countervalue case projects 98 million prompt deaths. Partial relocation before attack to low-risk fallout areas at least 15 km from potential strategic targets would result in a decrease in projections of deaths by tens of millions. For fallout risk calculations, only the dose received in the first 48 h (the early or local fallout) is considered. Populations are assumed to be sheltered, with a shelter protection factor profile that varies for a large urban area, a small urban area, or a rural area. With these profiles, without relocation, the fallout fatalities for all four attack scenarios are calculated to be less than one million people. This can be compared to fallout fatalities of about 10 million for a hypothetical unsheltered "phantom" population.

Chernobyl source term, atmospheric dispersion, and dose estimation.

The Chernobyl source term available for long-range transport was estimated by integration of radiological measurements with atmospheric dispersion modeling and by reactor core radionuclide inventory estimation in conjunction with WASH-1400 release fractions associated with specific chemical groups. These analyses indicated that essentially all of the noble gases, 60% of the radioiodines, 40% of the radiocesium, 10% of the tellurium, and about 1% or less of the more refractory elements were released. Atmospheric dispersion modeling of the radioactive cloud over the Northern Hemisphere revealed that the cloud became segmented during the first day, with the lower section heading toward Scandinavia and the upper part heading in a southeasterly direction with subsequent transport across Asia to Japan, the North Pacific, and the west coast of North America. The inhalation doses due to direct cloud exposure were estimated to exceed 10 mGy near the Chernobyl area, to range between 0.1 and 0.001 mGy within most of Europe, and to be generally less than 0.00001 mGy within the United States. The Chernobyl source term was several orders of magnitude greater than those associated with the Windscale and TMI reactor accidents. However, the 137Cs from the Chernobyl event is about 6% of that released by the U.S. and U.S.S.R. atmospheric nuclear weapon tests, while the 131I and 90Sr released by the Chernobyl accident was only about 0.1% of that released by the weapon tests.