Accuracy of artificial intelligence CT quantification in predicting COVID-19 subjects' prognosis.

BACKGROUND: Artificial intelligence (AI)-aided analysis of chest CT expedites the quantification of abnormalities and may facilitate the diagnosis and assessment of the prognosis of subjects with COVID-19. OBJECTIVES: This study investigates the performance of an AI-aided quantification model in predicting the clinical outcomes of hospitalized subjects with COVID-19 and compares it with radiologists' performance. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: A total of 90 subjects with COVID-19 (men, n = 59 [65.6%]; age, 52.9±16.7 years) were recruited in this cross-sectional study. Quantification of the total and compromised lung parenchyma was performed by two expert radiologists using a volumetric image analysis software and compared against an AI-assisted package consisting of a modified U-Net model for segmenting COVID-19 lesions and an off-the-shelf U-Net model augmented with COVID-19 data for segmenting lung volume. The fraction of compromised lung parenchyma (%CL) was calculated. Based on clinical results, the subjects were divided into two categories: critical (n = 45) and noncritical (n = 45). All admission data were compared between the two groups. RESULTS: There was an excellent agreement between the radiologist-obtained and AI-assisted measurements (intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.88, P < 0.001). Both the AI-assisted and radiologist-obtained %CLs were significantly higher in the critical subjects (P = 0.009 and 0.02, respectively) than in the noncritical subjects. In the multivariate logistic regression analysis to distinguish the critical subjects, an AI-assisted %CL ≥35% (odds ratio [OR] = 17.0), oxygen saturation level of <88% (OR = 33.6), immunocompromised condition (OR = 8.1), and other comorbidities (OR = 15.2) independently remained as significant variables in the models. Our proposed model obtained an accuracy of 83.9%, a sensitivity of 79.1%, and a specificity of 88.6% in predicting critical outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: AI-assisted measurements are similar to quantitative radiologist-obtained measurements in determining lung involvement in COVID-19 subjects.

Necessary Conditions for Reliable Propagation of Slowly Time-Varying Firing Rate.

Reliable propagation of slow-modulations of the firing rate across multiple layers of a feedforward network (FFN) has proven difficult to capture in spiking neural models. In this paper, we explore necessary conditions for reliable and stable propagation of time-varying asynchronous spikes whose instantaneous rate of changes-in fairly short time windows [20-100] msec-represents information of slow fluctuations of the stimulus. Specifically, we study the effect of network size, level of background synaptic noise, and the variability of synaptic delays in an FFN with all-to-all connectivity. We show that network size and the level of background synaptic noise, together with the strength of synapses, are substantial factors enabling the propagation of asynchronous spikes in deep layers of an FFN. In contrast, the variability of synaptic delays has a minor effect on signal propagation.

A fractional-order model for the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak.

The outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19), which was firstly reported in China, has affected many countries worldwide. To understand and predict the transmission dynamics of this disease, mathematical models can be very effective. It has been shown that the fractional order is related to the memory effects, which seems to be more effective for modeling the epidemic diseases. Motivated by this, in this paper, we propose fractional-order susceptible individuals, asymptomatic infected, symptomatic infected, recovered, and deceased (SEIRD) model for the spread of COVID-19. We consider both classical and fractional-order models and estimate the parameters by using the real data of Italy, reported by the World Health Organization. The results show that the fractional-order model has less root-mean-square error than the classical one. Finally, the prediction ability of both of the integer- and fractional-order models is evaluated by using a test data set. The results show that the fractional model provides a closer forecast to the real data.