Drought trends projection under future climate change scenarios for Iran region.

The study highlights the potential characteristics of droughts under future climate change scenarios. For this purpose, the changes in Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) under the A1B, A2, and B1 climate change scenarios in Iran were assessed. The daily weather data of 30 synoptic stations from 1992 to 2010 were analyzed. The HadCM3 statistical model in the LARS-WG was used to predict the future weather conditions between 2011 and 2112, for three 34-year periods; 2011-2045, 2046-2079, and 2080-2112. In regard to the findings, the upward trend of the potential evapotranspiration in parallel with the downward trend of the precipitation in the next 102 years in three scenarios to the base timescale was transparent. The frequency of the SPEI in the base month indicated that 17.02% of the studied months faced the drought. Considering the scenarios of climate change for three 34-year periods (i.e., 2011-2045, 2046-2079, and 2080-2112) the average percentages of potential drought occurrences for all the stations in the next three periods will be 8.89, 16.58, and 27.27 respectively under the B1 scenario. While the predicted values under the A1B scenario are 7.63, 12.66, and 35.08%respectively. The relevant findings under the A2 scenario are 6.73, 10.16, 40.8%. As a consequence, water shortage would be more serious in the third period of study under all three scenarios. The percentage of drought occurrence in the future years under the A2, B1, and A1B will be 19.23%, 17.74%, and 18.84%, respectively which confirms the worst condition under the A2 scenario. For all stations, the number of months with moderate drought was substantially more than severe and extreme droughts. Considering the A2 scenario as a high emission scenario, the analysis of SPEI frequency illustrated that the proportion of dry periods in regions with humid and cool climate is more than hot and warm climates; however, the duration of dry periods in warmer climates is longer than colder climates. Moreover, the temporal distribution of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration indicated that in a large number of stations, there is a significant difference between them in the middle months of the year, which justifies the importance of prudent water management in warm months.

Flood susceptibility mapping utilizing the integration of geospatial and multivariate statistical analysis, Erbil area in Northern Iraq as a case study.

Climate extreme events such as floods and droughts in any area have a significant impact on human life, infrastructure, agriculture, and the economy. In the last two years, flash floods caused by heavy rainstorms have become frequent and destructive in many catchments in Northern Iraq. The present study aims to examine flash floods in the Erbil region, Northern Iraq using Remote sensing (RS), Geographic Information System (GIS), and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for geomorphic data. PCA results revealed that 12 geomorphic parameters exhibited a significant correlation with two different statistical components. To facilitate practical application, ranks are assigned based on the calculated parameters for flood susceptibility mapping. Out of the 24 basins in the current study, three basins (16, 3, and 14) have the highest geomorphometric values (36-39), indicating the zone most susceptible to flash floods and making up a maximum area of 38.58% of the studied region. Six basins (4, 8, 9, 10, 12, and 15), which have geomorphometric values between 30 and 35 and cover a land area of 27.86%, are the most moderately vulnerable to floods. The remaining basins, which make up 33.47% of the research, are occasionally subject to floods and have geomorphometric scores below 30. The precision of the flood susceptibility mapping was validated using the bifurcation ratio and drainage density relationship as well as past flood damages, such as economic losses and human casualties. Most of the recorded injuries and fatalities took place in areas that were particularly prone to severe past flooding. Additionally, the investigation revealed that 44.56% of all populated areas are located in extremely vulnerable basins. The findings demonstrate a notable correlation between the identified flood-susceptible areas and the occurrence of past flood damage.

Seasonal correlation of meteorological parameters and PM2.5 with the COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths in Baghdad, Iraq.

The COVID-19 pandemic was a serious global health emergency in 2020 and 2021. This study analyzed the seasonal association of weekly averages of meteorological parameters, such as wind speed, solar radiation, temperature, relative humidity, and air pollutant PM2.5, with confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths in Baghdad, Iraq, a major megacity of the Middle East, for the period June 2020 to August 2021. Spearman and Kendall correlation coefficients were used to investigate the association. The results showed that wind speed, air temperature, and solar radiation have positive and strong correlations with the confirmed cases and deaths in the cold season (autumn and winter 2020-2021). The total COVID-19 cases negatively correlated with relative humidity but were not significant in all seasons. Besides, PM2.5 strongly correlated with COVID-19 confirmed cases for the summer of 2020. The death distribution by age group showed the highest deaths for those aged 60-69. The highest number of deaths was 41% in the summer of 2020. The study provided useful information about the COVID-19 health emergency and meteorological parameters, which can be used for future health disaster planning, adopting prevention strategies and providing healthcare procedures to protect against future infraction transmission.

Megacities' environmental assessment for Iraq region using satellite image and geo-spatial tools.

Urban areas are quickly established, and the overwhelming population pressure is triggering heat stress in the metropolitan cities. Climate change impact is the key aspect for maintaining the urban areas and building proper urban planning because spreading of the urban area destroyed the vegetated land and increased heat variation. Remote sensing-based on Landsat images are used for investigating the vegetation circumstances, thermal variation, urban expansion, and surface urban heat island or SUHI in the three megacities of Iraq like Baghdad, Erbil, and Basrah. Four satellite imageries are used aimed at land use and land cover (LULC) study from 1990 to 2020, which indicate the land transformation of those three major cities in Iraq. The average annually temperature is increased during  30 years like Baghdad (0.16 °C), Basrah (0.44 °C), and Erbil (0.32 °C). The built-up area is increased 147.1 km2 (Erbil), 217.86 km2 (Baghdad), and 294.43 km2 (Erbil), which indicated the SUHI affects the entire area of the three cities. The bare land is increased in Baghdad city, which indicated the local climatic condition and affected the livelihood. Basrah City is affected by anthropogenic activities and most areas of Basrah were converted into built-up land in the last 30 years. In Erbil, agricultural land (295.81 km2) is increased. The SUHI study results indicated the climate change effect in those three cities in Iraq. This study's results are more useful for planning, management, and sustainable development of urban areas.

On the investigation of COVID-19 lockdown influence on air pollution concentration: regional investigation over eighteen provinces in Iraq.

At the end of 2019, a novel coronavirus COVID-19 emerged in Wuhan, China, and later spread throughout the world, including Iraq. To control the rapid dispersion of the virus, Iraq, like other countries, has imposed national lockdown measures, such as social distancing, restriction of automobile traffic, and industrial enterprises. This has led to reduced human activities and air pollutant emissions, which caused improvement in air quality. This study focused on the analysis of the impact of the six partial, total, and post-lockdown periods (1st partial lockdown from March 1 to16, 2020, 1st total lockdown from March 17 to April 21, 2nd partial lockdown from April 22 to May 23, 2nd total lockdown from May 24 to June 13, 3rd partial lockdown from June 14 to August 19, and end partial lockdown from August 20 to 31) on the average of daily NO2, O3, PM2.5, and PM10 concentrations, as well as air quality index (AQI) in 18 Iraqi provinces during these periods (from March 1st to August 31st, 2020). The analysis showed a decline in the average of daily PM2.5, PM10, and NO2 concentrations by 24%, 15%, and 8%, respectively from March 17 to April 21, 2020 (first phase of total lockdown) in comparison to the 1st phase of partial lockdown (March 1 to March 16, 2020). Furthermore, the O3 increased by 10% over the same period. The 2nd phase of total lockdown, the 3rd partial lockdown, and the post-lockdown periods witnessed declines in PM2.5 by 8%, 11%, and 21%, respectively, while the PM10 increases over the same period. Iraqi also witnessed improvement in the AQI by 8% during the 1st phase of total lockdown compared to the 1st phase of partial lockdown. The level of air pollutants in Iraq declined significantly during the six lockdown periods as a result of reduced human activities. This study gives confidence that when strict measures are implemented, air quality can improve.

Impact of COVID-19 lockdown on NO2, O3, PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations and assessing air quality changes in Baghdad, Iraq.

Covid-19 was first reported in Iraq on February 24, 2020. Since then, to prevent its propagation, the Iraqi government declared a state of health emergency. A set of rapid and strict countermeasures have taken, including locking down cities and limiting population's mobility. In this study, concentrations of four criteria pollutants, NO2, O3, PM2.5 and PM10 before the lockdown from January 16 to February 29, 2020, and during four periods of partial and total lockdown from March 1 to July 24, 2020, in Baghdad were analysed. Overall, 6, 8 and 15% decreases in NO2, PM2.5, and PM10 concentrations, respectively in Baghdad during the 1st partial and total lockdown from March 1 to April 21, compared to the period before the lockdown. While, there were 13% increase in O3 for same period. During the 2nd partial lockdown from June 14 to July 24, NO2 and PM2.5 decreases 20 and 2.5%, respectively. While, there were 525 and 56% increase in O3 and PM10, respectively for same period. The air quality index (AQI) improved by 13% in Baghdad during the 1st partial lockdown from March 1 to April 21, compared to its pre-lockdown. The results of NO2 tropospheric column extracted from the Sentinel-5P satellite shown the NO2 emissions reduced up to 35 to 40% across Iraq, due to lockdown measures, between January and July, 2020, especially across the major cities such as Baghdad, Basra and Erbil. The lockdown due to COVID-19 has drastic effects on social and economic aspects. However, the lockdown also has some positive effect on natural environment and air quality improvement.