Dose escalations in phase I studies: Feasibility of interpreting blinded pharmacodynamic data.

AIMS: During phase I study conduct, blinded data are reviewed to predict the safety of increasing the dose level. The aim of the present study was to describe the probability that effects are observed in blinded evaluations of data in a simulated phase I study design. METHODS: An application was created to simulate blinded pharmacological response curves over time for 6 common safety/efficacy measurements in phase I studies for 1 or 2 cohorts (6 active, 2 placebo per cohort). Effect sizes between 0 and 3 between-measurement standard deviations (SDs) were simulated. Each set of simulated graphs contained the individual response and mean ± SD over time. Reviewers (n = 34) reviewed a median of 100 simulated datasets and indicated whether an effect was present. RESULTS: Increasing effect sizes resulted in a higher chance of the effect being identified by the blinded reviewer. On average, 6% of effect sizes of 0.5 between-measurement SD were correctly identified, increasing to 72% in 3.0 between-measurement SD effect sizes. In contrast, on average 92-95% of simulations with no effect were correctly identified, with little effect of between-measurement variability in single cohort simulations. Adding a dataset of a second cohort at half the simulated dose did not appear to improve the interpretation. CONCLUSION: Our analysis showed that effect sizes <2× the between-measurement SD of the investigated outcome frequently go unnoticed by blinded reviewers, indicating that the weight given to these blinded analyses in current phase I practice is inappropriate and should be re-evaluated.

The association between body temperature and electrocardiographic parameters in normothermic healthy volunteers.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies reported that hypo- and hyperthermia are associated with several atrial and ventricular electrocardiographical parameters, including corrected QT (QTc) interval. Enhanced characterization of variations in QTc interval and normothermic body temperature aids in better understanding the underlying mechanism behind drug induced QTc interval effects. The analysis' objective was to investigate associations between body temperature and electrocardiographical parameters in normothermic healthy volunteers. METHODS: Data from 3023 volunteers collected at our center were retrospectively analyzed. Subjects were considered healthy after review of collected data by a physician, including a normal tympanic body temperature (35.5-37.5°C) and in sinus rhythm. A linear multivariate model with body temperature as a continuous was performed. Another multivariate analysis was performed with only the QT subintervals as independent variables and body temperature as dependent variable. RESULTS: Mean age was 33.8 ± 17.5 years and mean body temperature was 36.6 ± 0.4°C. Body temperature was independently associated with age (standardized coefficient [SC] = -0.255, P < .001), female gender (SC = +0.209, P < .001), heart rate (SC = +0.231, P < .001), P-wave axis (SC = -0.051, P < .001), J-point elevation in lead V4 (SC = -0.121, P < .001), and QTcF duration (SC = -0.061, P = .002). In contrast, other atrial and atrioventricular (AV) nodal parameters were not independently associated with body temperature. QT subinterval analysis revealed that only QRS duration (SC = -0.121, P < .001) was independently associated with body temperature. CONCLUSION: Body temperature in normothermic healthy volunteers was associated with heart rate, P-wave axis, J-point amplitude in lead V4, and ventricular conductivity, the latter primarily through prolongation of the QRS duration.

Blood pressure-related electrocardiographic findings in healthy young individuals.

Purpose: Elevated blood pressure induces electrocardiographic changes and is associated with an increase in cardiovascular disease later in life compared to normal blood pressure levels. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the association between normal to high normal blood pressure values (90-139/50-89 mmHg) and electrocardiographic parameters related to cardiac changes in hypertension in healthy young adults.Methods: Data from 1449 volunteers aged 18-30 years collected at our centre were analyzed. Only subjects considered healthy by a physician after review of collected data with systolic blood pressure values between 90 and 139 mmHg and diastolic blood pressure values between 50 and 89 mmHg were included. Subjects were divided into groups with 10 mmHg systolic blood pressure increment between groups for analysis of electrocardiographic differences. Backward multivariate regression analysis with systolic and diastolic blood pressure as a continuous variable was performed.Results: The mean age was 22.7 ± 3.0 years, 73.7% were male. P-wave area, ventricular activation time, QRS-duration, Sokolow-Lyon voltages, Cornell Product, J-point-T-peak duration corrected for heart rate and maximum T-wave duration were significantly different between systolic blood pressure groups. In the multivariate model with gender, body mass index and cholesterol, ventricular rate (standardized coefficient (SC): +0.182, p < .001), ventricular activation time in lead V6 (SC= +0.065, p = .048), Sokolow-Lyon voltage (SC= +0.135, p < .001), and Cornell product (SC= +0.137, p < .001) were independently associated with systolic blood pressure, while ventricular rate (SC= +0.179, p < .001), P-wave area in lead V1 (SC= +0.079, p = .020), and Cornell product (SC= +0.091, p = .006) were independently associated with diastolic blood pressure.Conclusion: Blood pressure-related electrocardiographic changes were observed incrementally in a healthy young population with blood pressure in the normal range. These changes were an increased ventricular rate, increased atrial surface area, ventricular activation time and increased ventricular hypertrophy indices on a standard 12 lead electrocardiogram.