Adaptation to Plant Communities across the Genome of Arabidopsis thaliana.

Despite the importance of plant-plant interactions on plant community dynamics and crop yield, our understanding of the adaptive genetics underlying these interactions is still limited and deserves to be investigated in the context of complex and diffuse interactions occurring in plant assemblages. Here, based on 145 natural populations of Arabidopsis thaliana located in south-west of France and characterized for plant communities, we conducted a Genome-Environment Association analysis to finely map adaptive genomic regions of A. thaliana associated with plant community descriptors. To control for correlated abiotic environment effects, we also characterized the populations for a set of biologically meaningful climate and soil variables. A nonnegligible fraction of top single nucleotide polymorphisms was associated with both plant community descriptors and abiotic variables, highlighting the importance of considering the actual abiotic drivers of plant communities to disentangle genetic variants for biotic adaptation from genetic variants for abiotic adaptation. The adaptive loci associated with species abundance were highly dependent on the identity of the neighboring species suggesting a high degree of biotic specialization of A. thaliana to members of its plant interaction network. Moreover, the identification of adaptive loci associated with α-diversity and composition of plant communities supports the ability of A. thaliana to interact simultaneously with multiple plant neighbors, which in turn can help to understand the role of community-wide selection. Altogether, our study highlights that dissecting the genetic basis underlying plant-plant interactions at a regional scale while controlling for abiotic confounding factors can help understanding the adaptive mechanisms modulating natural plant assemblages.

Climate change and the ash dieback crisis.

Beyond the direct influence of climate change on species distribution and phenology, indirect effects may also arise from perturbations in species interactions. Infectious diseases are strong biotic forces that can precipitate population declines and lead to biodiversity loss. It has been shown in forest ecosystems worldwide that at least 10% of trees are vulnerable to extinction and pathogens are increasingly implicated. In Europe, the emerging ash dieback disease caused by the fungus Hymenoscyphus fraxineus, commonly called Chalara fraxinea, is causing a severe mortality of common ash trees (Fraxinus excelsior); this is raising concerns for the persistence of this widespread tree, which is both a key component of forest ecosystems and economically important for timber production. Here, we show how the pathogen and climate change may interact to affect the future spatial distribution of the common ash. Using two presence-only models, seven General Circulation Models and four emission scenarios, we show that climate change, by affecting the host and the pathogen separately, may uncouple their spatial distribution to create a mismatch in species interaction and so a lowering of disease transmission. Consequently, as climate change expands the ranges of both species polewards it may alleviate the ash dieback crisis in southern and occidental regions at the same time.

Uncertainties in the projection of species distributions related to general circulation models.

Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) are increasingly used by ecologists to project species potential future distribution. However, the application of such models may be challenging, and some caveats have already been identified. While studies have generally shown that projections may be sensitive to the ENM applied or the emission scenario, to name just a few, the sensitivity of ENM-based scenarios to General Circulation Models (GCMs) has been often underappreciated. Here, using a multi-GCM and multi-emission scenario approach, we evaluated the variability in projected distributions under future climate conditions. We modeled the ecological realized niche (sensu Hutchinson) and predicted the baseline distribution of species with contrasting spatial patterns and representative of two major functional groups of European trees: the dwarf birch and the sweet chestnut. Their future distributions were then projected onto future climatic conditions derived from seven GCMs and four emissions scenarios using the new Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5 report. Uncertainties arising from GCMs and those resulting from emissions scenarios were quantified and compared. Our study reveals that scenarios of future species distribution exhibit broad differences, depending not only on emissions scenarios but also on GCMs. We found that the between-GCM variability was greater than the between-RCP variability for the next decades and both types of variability reached a similar level at the end of this century. Our result highlights that a combined multi-GCM and multi-RCP approach is needed to better consider potential trajectories and uncertainties in future species distributions. In all cases, between-GCM variability increases with the level of warming, and if nothing is done to alleviate global warming, future species spatial distribution may become more and more difficult to anticipate. When future species spatial distributions are examined, we propose to use a large number of GCMs and RCPs to better anticipate potential trajectories and quantify uncertainties.

Seed dormancy distribution: explanatory ecological factors.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Knowledge of those traits that vary with latitude should be helpful in predicting how they may evolve locally under climate change. In the sea beet Beta vulgaris ssp. maritima, seed dormancy largely controls the timing of germination, is highly heritable and varies geographically; it is therefore thought to be selected by climate. The aim here was to characterize the variation in seed dormancy among sea beet populations across the French distribution area, as well as the ecological factors in situ that are correlated with and that could therefore select for seed dormancy. The relative importance of genetic inheritance vs. non-genetic variation is also evaluated. METHODS: The proportions of dormant seeds from 85 natural populations encompassing different climates over the whole French distribution area were measured under controlled conditions. Germination phenology was observed in a common garden experiment. Dormancy variation of seeds collected in situ was compared with that of seeds collected on plants grown in the greenhouse. KEY RESULTS: The proportions of dormant seeds in the greenhouse were highly variable, covering almost the entire range from 0 to 1, and followed a geographical pattern from lower dormancy at high latitudes to high dormancy at low latitudes. The distribution of dormancy was positively correlated with yearly temperatures, especially summer temperatures. Minimum temperatures in winter did not significantly explain the trait variation. The genetic component of the total variation was significant and is probably completed by an important adjustment to the local conditions brought about by maternal adaptive phenotypic plasticity. CONCLUSIONS: Dormancy in sea beet could be interpreted as a way to limit summer germination and spread germination over the first autumn and spring or following autumns. This highly heritable trait has the potential to evolve in the relatively near future because of climate change.

Potential for evolutionary change in the seasonal timing of germination in sea beet (Beta vulgaris ssp. maritima) mediated by seed dormancy.

In sea beet (Beta vulgaris ssp. maritima), germination occurs in autumn or spring and is mediated by dormancy which can be released by cold or dry periods. Environmental change such as current climate change may require evolutionary response in seasonal timing. Here, we explore the potential for such evolutionary change. Seed dormancy was studied in a composite population based on seeds from all over the species range in France together with several generations of reciprocal crosses. We found high, repeatable variability for dormancy rate among individuals under greenhouse conditions and confirmed its relevance for germination phenology in the field. Our data fitted best with an exclusively maternal determination of the dormancy phenotype. Narrow-sense heritability, h(2) approximately 0.5 in the composite population and approximately 0.4 in the original local populations, was such that rapid evolutionary change in the relative proportions of autumn and spring germination may be possible.