Evidence-based target setting informs blue carbon strategies for nationally determined contributions.

The magnitude and pace of global climate change demand ambitious and effective implementation of nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Nature-based solutions present an efficient approach to achieving mitigation, adaptation and resilience goals. Yet few nations have quantified the diverse benefits of nature-based solutions to evaluate and select ecosystem targets for their NDCs. Here we report on Belize's pursuit of innovative, evidence-based target setting by accounting for multiple benefits of blue carbon strategies. Through quantification of carbon storage and sequestration and optimization of co-benefits, we explore time-bound targets and prioritize locations for mangrove protection and restoration. We find increases in carbon benefits with larger mangrove investments, while fisheries, tourism and coastal risk-reduction co-benefits grow initially and then plateau. We identify locations, currently lacking protected status, where prioritizing blue carbon strategies would provide the greatest delivery of co-benefits to communities. These findings informed Belize's updated NDCs to include an additional 12,000 ha of mangrove protection and 4,000 ha of mangrove restoration, respectively, by 2030. Our study serves as an example for the more than 150 other countries that have the opportunity to enhance greenhouse gas sequestration and climate adaptation by incorporating blue carbon strategies that provide multiple societal benefits into their NDCs.

Might field experiments also be inadvertent metacommunities?

Metacommunity theory predicts that the composition and diversity of a site depend on its characteristics and those of its neighborhood. Dispersal between plots in a field experiment could link responses observed in a focal plot to both its treatment and those of its neighbors. However, the diversity, composition, and treatments of neighboring plots are rarely included in analyses of experimental treatments. We analyzed a spatially gridded grassland nitrogen addition experiment and found that plant species richness and the composition of focal plots were influenced not just by their nitrogen treatment but also by the number of species in neighboring plots and their abundances. For each additional species in a focal plot's neighborhood, the species richness of the focal plot increased by 0.30 species. Control plots had a significant loss of species, at a rate of ~0.23 species per year during the 23-year experiment, but only when their neighborhoods had low species richness. Changes in the abundance of the three dominant species depended both on the nitrogen treatment of a focal plot and on their abundance in adjacent plots. Our analyses suggested that both the experimental nitrogen treatments and metacommunity processes codetermined plant species richness and plant species' abundances. Our findings suggested that analyzing many traditional field experiments with a metacommunity perspective may reveal a confounding of experimental treatments and provide empirical data to test metacommunity theory.

Integrated assessment modeling reveals near-channel management as cost-effective to improve water quality in agricultural watersheds.

Despite decades of policy that strives to reduce nutrient and sediment export from agricultural fields, surface water quality in intensively managed agricultural landscapes remains highly degraded. Recent analyses show that current conservation efforts are not sufficient to reverse widespread water degradation in Midwestern agricultural systems. Intensifying row crop agriculture and increasing climate pressure require a more integrated approach to water quality management that addresses diverse sources of nutrients and sediment and off-field mitigation actions. We used multiobjective optimization analysis and integrated three biophysical models to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of alternative portfolios of watershed management practices at achieving nitrate and suspended sediment reduction goals in an agricultural basin of the Upper Midwestern United States. Integrating watershed-scale models enabled the inclusion of near-channel management alongside more typical field management and thus directly the comparison of cost-effectiveness across portfolios. The optimization analysis revealed that fluvial wetlands (i.e., wide, slow-flowing, vegetated water bodies within the riverine corridor) are the single-most cost-effective management action to reduce both nitrate and sediment loads and will be essential for meeting moderate to aggressive water quality targets. Although highly cost-effective, wetland construction was costly compared to other practices, and it was not selected in portfolios at low investment levels. Wetland performance was sensitive to placement, emphasizing the importance of watershed scale planning to realize potential benefits of wetland restorations. We conclude that extensive interagency cooperation and coordination at a watershed scale is required to achieve substantial, economically viable improvements in water quality under intensive row crop agricultural production.

Mapping Ecosystem Services to Human Well-being: a toolkit to support integrated landscape management for the SDGs.

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) emphasize the global and multi-dimensional nature of sustainability and thus require improving our capacity to articulate and trace the impact of ecosystem change to measures of human well-being. Yet, the integrated nature of these goals is challenging to assess without similarly integrated assessment tools. We present a new modeling toolkit, "Mapping Ecosystem Services to Human well-being" (MESH), that integrates commonly used, stand-alone ecosystem services (ES) models from the InVEST suite of models to quantify and illustrate the trade-offs and synergies across five ecosystem services and up to 10 associated SDGs. Development of the software and its functionality were informed by a broad stakeholder consultation with ministries, non-governmental organizations and civil society groups in West Africa to identify common barriers to uptake and application of modeling tools in developing countries. In light of this process, key features included in MESH are (1) integration of multiple ecosystem service (ES) models into a common modeling framework supported by a curated base data set, (2) built-in scenario generation capacity to support policy analysis, (3) visualization of outcomes and trade-offs, and (4) mapping of ecosystem service change to SDG targets and goals. We illustrate the use of MESH in a case study in the Volta basin of West Africa comparing the effectiveness of three alternative conservation prioritization approaches: (1) land cover-based, (2) topographic-based, and (3) an ecosystem service-based approach to minimize the impact of agricultural expansion. We evaluate these approaches by linking changes in service supply to potential impacts on achievement of specific SDG goals and targets.

Bigger is better: Improved nature conservation and economic returns from landscape-level mitigation.

Impact mitigation is a primary mechanism on which countries rely to reduce environmental externalities and balance development with conservation. Mitigation policies are transitioning from traditional project-by-project planning to landscape-level planning. Although this larger-scale approach is expected to provide greater conservation benefits at the lowest cost, empirical justification is still scarce. Using commercial sugarcane expansion in the Brazilian Cerrado as a case study, we apply economic and biophysical steady-state models to quantify the benefits of the Brazilian Forest Code (FC) under landscape- and property-level planning. We find that FC compliance imposes small costs to business but can generate significant long-term benefits to nature: supporting 32 (±37) additional species (largely habitat specialists), storing 593,000 to 2,280,000 additional tons of carbon worth $69 million to $265 million ($ pertains to U.S. dollars), and marginally improving surface water quality. Relative to property-level compliance, we find that landscape-level compliance reduces total business costs by $19 million to $35 million per 6-year sugarcane growing cycle while often supporting more species and storing more carbon. Our results demonstrate that landscape-level mitigation provides cost-effective conservation and can be used to promote sustainable development.