How many future dementia cases would be missed by a high-risk screening program? A retrospective cohort study in a population-based cohort.

INTRODUCTION: Risk prediction models aim to identify those at high risk to receive targeted interventions. We aimed to identify the proportion of future dementia cases that would be missed by a high-risk screening program. METHODS: We identified validated dementia risk prediction models from systematic reviews. We applied these to European Prospective Investigation of Cancer Norfolk, a large population-based cohort of 30,387 individuals with 29 years of linked healthcare data. RESULTS: A maximum of 16.0% (14.7,17.2) and 31.9% (30.2,33.5) of cases arose from the highest risk decile and quintiles, respectively. For every 1000 people considered to be at high risk, a maximum of 235 (215, 255) developed dementia. DISCUSSION: Seven in every 10 cases of dementia arose from people at normal risk, and eight in every 10 people at high risk did not develop dementia. Individual-level prevention approaches targeted at high-risk groups are unlikely to produce large reductions in disease incidence at the population level. HIGHLIGHTS: Dementia, a significant public health challenge, is not an inevitability of aging; risk reduction is possible. Several dementia risk prediction models have been validated in the general population, and these aim to identify people at high risk of the disease who can then be targeted with primary prevention interventions. An alternative prevention approach is to focus on interventions that reduce risk across the population, irrespective of risk status. In our study, seven out of every ten people who developed dementia during 29 year follow-up were classed as 'normal-risk' (rather than 'high risk') at baseline. Eight out of every ten people who were at high risk at baseline did not go on to develop dementia. Even if effective, dementia risk reduction efforts based upon targeted high-risk approaches are unlikely to reduce incidence of disease at the population level.

Unraveling the role of plasma proteins in dementia: insights from two cohort studies in the UK, with causal evidence from Mendelian randomization.

Population-based proteomics offer a groundbreaking avenue to predict dementia onset. This study employed a proteome-wide, data-driven approach to investigate protein-dementia associations in 229 incident all-cause dementia (ACD) among 3,249 participants from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) over a median 9.8-year follow-up, then validated in 1,506 incident ACD among 52,745 individuals from the UK Biobank (UKB) over median 13.7 years. NEFL and RPS6KB1 were robustly associated with incident ACD; MMP12 was associated with vascular dementia in ELSA. Additional markers EDA2R and KIM1 (HAVCR1) were identified from sensitivity analyses. Combining NEFL and RPS6KB1 with other factors yielded high predictive accuracy (area under the curve (AUC)=0.871) for incident ACD. Replication in the UKB confirmed associations between identified proteins with various dementia subtypes. Results from reverse Mendelian Randomization also supported the role of several proteins as early dementia biomarkers. These findings underscore proteomics' potential in identifying novel risk screening targets for dementia.

Considerations for the use of the Informant Questionnaire on Cognitive Decline in the Elderly (IQCODE) in cross-country comparisons of cognitive aging and dementia.

INTRODUCTION: Informant reports are a critical component of dementia diagnoses, but the comparability of informant reports across countries is not well understood. METHODS: We compared the performance of the Informant Questionnaire on Cognitive Decline in the Elderly (IQCODE) using population-representative surveys in the United States (N = 3183), England (N = 1050), and India (N = 4047). RESULTS: Analyses of regression splines and comparisons of model fit showed strong associations between IQCODE and objective cognition at low cognitive functioning in the United States and England; in India, the association was weaker but consistent over the range of cognition. Associations between IQCODE score and informant generation (analysis of variance [ANOVA] p = 0.001), caregiver status (p < 0.001), and years known by the informant (p = 0.015) were different across countries after adjusting for objective cognition. DISCUSSION: In India, the IQCODE was less sensitive to impairments at the lowest levels of cognitive functioning. Country-specific adjustments to IQCODE scoring based on informant characteristics may improve cross-national comparisons. HIGHLIGHTS: Associations between IQCODE and cognitive testing were similar in the United States and England but differed in India. In India, the IQCODE may be less sensitive to impairments among those with low cognition and no education. Informant characteristics may differentially impact informant reports of decline across countries. Adjustments or culturally sensitive adaptations may improve cross-national comparability.

Lower mental health related quality of life precedes dementia diagnosis: findings from the EPIC-Norfolk prospective population-based study.

Lower Health Related Quality of Life (HRQoL) precedes dementia in older adults in the USA. We explore prospective associations between HRQoL and dementia in British adults in mid and late-life, when interventions to optimise cognitive ageing may provide benefit. 7,452 community-dwelling participants (57% women; mean age 69.3 ± 8.3 years) attended the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer-Norfolk study's third health check (3HC) and reported their HRQoL using Short-Form 36 (SF-36). Cox Proportional Hazard regression models explored associations between standard deviation differences in baseline Physical Component (PCS) and Mental Component Summary (MCS) scores, as well as eight SF-36 sub-scales (physical functioning, role-physical, bodily pain, general health, vitality, social functioning, role-emotional, mental health), and incident dementia over ten years. Logistic regression models explored cross-sectional relationships at the 3HC between HRQoL and objective global cognitive function (n = 4435; poor cognition = lowest performance decile). The cohort was examined as a whole and by age-group (50-69, ≥ 70), considering socio-demographics and co-morbidity. Higher MCS scores were associated with lower chance of incident dementia (Hazard Ratio [HR] = 0.74, 95% CI 0.68-0.81) and lower odds of poor cognition (Odds Ratio [OR] = 0.82, 0.76-0.89), with findings similar by age-group. Higher PCS scores were not associated with dementia in the whole cohort (HR = 0.93, 0.84-1.04) or considering age-groups; and were only associated with poor cognition in younger participants (OR = 0.81, 0.72-0.92). Similarly, associations between higher scores on subscales pertaining to mental, but not physical, HRQoL and lower dementia incidence were observed. Lower mental HRQoL precedes dementia diagnosis in middle-aged and older British adults.

Association Between Retinal Nerve Fiber Layer Thickness and Incident Dementia in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer in Norfolk Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) thickness may reflect cerebral status. OBJECTIVE: This study assessed the relationship between RNFL thickness and incident all-cause dementia in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer in Norfolk (EPIC-Norfolk) Eye Study. METHODS: Glaucoma detection with variable corneal compensation (GDx-VCC) and Heidelberg Retinal Tomograph II (HRT II) derived global mean RNFL thickness from dementia-free participants at baseline within the EPIC-Norfolk Eye Study were analyzed. Incident dementia was identified through linkage to electronic medical records. Cox proportional hazard mixed-effects regression models adjusted for key confounders were used to examine the associations between RNFL thickness and incident dementia in four separate models. RESULTS: 6,239 participants were included with 322 cases of incident dementia and mean age of 67.5-years old, with 49.7% women (median follow-up 13.2-years, interquartile range (11.7 to 14.6 years). Greater RNFL thickness (GDx-VCC) was not significantly associated with a lower risk of incident dementia in the full adjusted model [HR per quartile increase 0.95; 95% CI 0.82-1.10]. Similarly, RNFL thickness assessed with HRT II was also not associated with incident dementia in any model (full adjusted model; HR per quartile increase: 1.06; [95% CI 0.93-1.19]. Gender did not modify any associations under study. CONCLUSION: GDx-VCC and HRT II derived RNFL thickness are unlikely to be useful predictors of incident dementia. Higher resolution optical imaging technologies may clarify whether there are useful relationships between neuro-retinal morphology and brain measures.

Measurement differences in the assessment of functional limitations for cognitive impairment classification across geographic locations.

INTRODUCTION: The measurement of dementia in cross-national contexts relies on the assessment of functional limitations. We aimed to evaluate the performance of survey items on functional limitations across culturally diverse geographic settings. METHODS: We used data from the Harmonized Cognitive Assessment Protocol Surveys (HCAP) in five countries (total N = 11,250) to quantify associations between items on functional limitations and cognitive impairment. RESULTS: Many items performed better in the United States and England compared to South Africa, India, and Mexico. Items on the Community Screening Instrument for Dementia (CSID) had the least variability across countries (SD = 0.73 vs. 0.92 [Blessed] and 0.98 [Jorm IQCODE]), but also the weakest associations with cognitive impairment (median odds ratio [OR] = 2.23 vs. 3.01 [Blessed] and 2.75 [Jorm IQCODE]). DISCUSSION: Differences in cultural norms for reporting functional limitations likely influences performance of items on functional limitations and may affect the interpretation of results from substantive studies. HIGHLIGHTS: There was substantial cross-country variation in item performance. Items from the Community Screening Instrument for Dementia (CSID) had less cross-country variability but lower performance. There was more variability in performance of instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) compared to activities of daily living (ADL) items. Variability in cultural expectations of older adults should be taken into account. Results highlight the need for novel approaches to assessing functional limitations.

Artificial intelligence-enabled retinal vasculometry for prediction of circulatory mortality, myocardial infarction and stroke.

AIMS: We examine whether inclusion of artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled retinal vasculometry (RV) improves existing risk algorithms for incident stroke, myocardial infarction (MI) and circulatory mortality. METHODS: AI-enabled retinal vessel image analysis processed images from 88 052 UK Biobank (UKB) participants (aged 40-69 years at image capture) and 7411 European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC)-Norfolk participants (aged 48-92). Retinal arteriolar and venular width, tortuosity and area were extracted. Prediction models were developed in UKB using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression for circulatory mortality, incident stroke and MI, and externally validated in EPIC-Norfolk. Model performance was assessed using optimism adjusted calibration, C-statistics and R2 statistics. Performance of Framingham risk scores (FRS) for incident stroke and incident MI, with addition of RV to FRS, were compared with a simpler model based on RV, age, smoking status and medical history (antihypertensive/cholesterol lowering medication, diabetes, prevalent stroke/MI). RESULTS: UKB prognostic models were developed on 65 144 participants (mean age 56.8; median follow-up 7.7 years) and validated in 5862 EPIC-Norfolk participants (67.6, 9.1 years, respectively). Prediction models for circulatory mortality in men and women had optimism adjusted C-statistics and R2 statistics between 0.75-0.77 and 0.33-0.44, respectively. For incident stroke and MI, addition of RV to FRS did not improve model performance in either cohort. However, the simpler RV model performed equally or better than FRS. CONCLUSION: RV offers an alternative predictive biomarker to traditional risk-scores for vascular health, without the need for blood sampling or blood pressure measurement. Further work is needed to examine RV in population screening to triage individuals at high-risk.

Evaluation of routinely collected records for dementia outcomes in UK: a prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the characteristics of individuals recorded as having a dementia diagnosis in different routinely collected records and to examine the extent of overlap of dementia coding across data sources. Also, to present comparisons of secondary and primary care records providing value for researchers using routinely collected records for dementia outcome capture. STUDY DESIGN: A prospective cohort study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: A cohort of 25 639 men and women in Norfolk, aged 40-79 years at recruitment (1993-1997) followed until 2018 linked to routinely collected to identify dementia cases. Data sources include mortality from death certification and National Health Service (NHS) hospital or secondary care records. Primary care records for a subset of the cohort were also reviewed. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE: Diagnosis of dementia (any-cause). RESULTS: Over 2000 participants (n=2635 individuals) were found to have a dementia diagnosis recorded in one or more of the data sources examined. Limited concordance was observed across the secondary care data sources. We also observed discrepancies with primary care records for the subset and report on potential linkage-related selection bias. CONCLUSIONS: Use of different types of record linkage from varying parts of the UK's health system reveals differences in recorded dementia diagnosis, indicating that dementia can be identified to varying extents in different parts of the NHS system. However, there is considerable variation, and limited overlap in those identified. We present potential selection biases that might occur depending on whether cause of death, or primary and secondary care data sources are used. With the expansion of using routinely collected health data, researchers must be aware of these potential biases and inaccuracies, reporting carefully on the likely extent of limitations and challenges of the data sources they use.

Rapid systematic review to identify key barriers to access, linkage, and use of local authority administrative data for population health research, practice, and policy in the United Kingdom.

BACKGROUND: Improving data access, sharing, and linkage across local authorities and other agencies can contribute to improvements in population health. Whilst progress is being made to achieve linkage and integration of health and social care data, issues still exist in creating such a system. As part of wider work to create the Cambridge Child Health Informatics and Linked Data (Cam-CHILD) database, we wanted to examine barriers to the access, linkage, and use of local authority data. METHODS: A systematic literature search was conducted of scientific databases and the grey literature. Any publications reporting original research related to barriers or enablers of data linkage of or with local authority data in the United Kingdom were included. Barriers relating to the following issues were extracted from each paper: funding, fragmentation, legal and ethical frameworks, cultural issues, geographical boundaries, technical capability, capacity, data quality, security, and patient and public trust. RESULTS: Twenty eight articles were identified for inclusion in this review. Issues relating to technical capacity and data quality were cited most often. This was followed by those relating to legal and ethical frameworks. Issue relating to public and patient trust were cited the least, however, there is considerable overlap between this topic and issues relating to legal and ethical frameworks. CONCLUSIONS: This rapid review is the first step to an in-depth exploration of the barriers to data access, linkage and use; a better understanding of which can aid in creating and implementing effective solutions. These barriers are not novel although they pose specific challenges in the context of local authority data.

Risk factors for previously undiagnosed primary open-angle glaucoma: the EPIC-Norfolk Eye Study.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Undiagnosed glaucoma is an invisible but important public health issue. At least half of glaucoma cases are estimated to be undiagnosed in western populations. The aim of this study is to examine risk factors for previously undiagnosed primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG). DESIGN: Cross-sectional study within the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer-Norfolk Eye Study, a large-scale cohort study in the UK. PARTICIPANTS: 314 study participants with POAG in either eye. METHODS: Logistic regression was used to examine associations with previously undiagnosed POAG compared with previously diagnosed POAG. The factors examined included sociodemographic, ocular, physical and economic factors that could be barriers to eye care access. RESULTS: 217 participants had previously diagnosed POAG and 107 participants were newly diagnosed with POAG during the study. After adjusting for covariables, the factors significantly associated with previously undiagnosed POAG were: a lower pretreatment intraocular pressure (IOP) (OR 0.71/mm Hg, 95% CI 0.63 to 0.80, p<0.0001), and to have reported no problems with their eyesight (OR 0.03, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.10, p<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: The risk factors for previously undiagnosed POAG identified in this study highlight the over-reliance on IOP level in glaucoma screening and the risk of missing glaucoma among lower IOP cases. It also suggests a role in improving glaucoma awareness in the community.

Visual Impairment and Risk of Dementia in 2 Population-Based Prospective Cohorts: UK Biobank and EPIC-Norfolk.

Visual impairment has emerged as a potential modifiable risk factor for dementia. However, there is a lack of large studies with objective measures of vision and with more than 10 years of follow-up. We investigated whether visual impairment is associated with an increased risk of incident dementia in UK Biobank and European Prospective Investigation into Cancer in Norfolk (EPIC-Norfolk). In both cohorts, visual acuity was measured using a "logarithm of the minimum angle of resolution" (LogMAR) chart and categorized as no (≤0.30 LogMAR), mild (>0.3 to ≤0.50 LogMAR), and moderate to severe (>0.50 LogMAR) impairment. Dementia was ascertained through linkage to electronic medical records. After restricting to those aged ≥60 years, without prevalent dementia and with eye measures available, the analytic samples consisted of 62 206 UK Biobank and 7 337 EPIC-Norfolk participants, respectively. In UK Biobank and EPIC-Norfolk, respectively, 1 113 and 517 participants developed dementia over 11 and 15 years of follow-up. Using multivariable Cox proportional-hazards models, the hazard ratios for mild and moderate to severe visual impairment were 1.26 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.92-1.72) and 2.16 (95% CI: 1.37-3.40), in UK Biobank, and 1.05 (95% CI: 0.72-1.53) and 1.93 (95% CI: 1.05-3.56) in EPIC-Norfolk, compared to no visual impairment. When excluding participants censored within 5 years of follow-up or with prevalent poor or fair self-reported health, the direction of the associations remained similar for moderate impairment but was not statistically significant. Our findings suggest visual impairment might be a promising target for dementia prevention; however, the possibility of reverse causation cannot be excluded.

Modifiable risk factors for dementia and dementia risk profiling. A user manual for Brain Health Services-part 2 of 6.

We envisage the development of new Brain Health Services to achieve primary and secondary dementia prevention. These services will complement existing memory clinics by targeting cognitively unimpaired individuals, where the focus is on risk profiling and personalized risk reduction interventions rather than diagnosing and treating late-stage disease. In this article, we review key potentially modifiable risk factors and genetic risk factors and discuss assessment of risk factors as well as additional fluid and imaging biomarkers that may enhance risk profiling. We then outline multidomain measures and risk profiling and provide practical guidelines for Brain Health Services, with consideration of outstanding uncertainties and challenges. Users of Brain Health Services should undergo risk profiling tailored to their age, level of risk, and availability of local resources. Initial risk assessment should incorporate a multidomain risk profiling measure. For users aged 39-64, we recommend the Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Aging, and Incidence of Dementia (CAIDE) Dementia Risk Score, whereas for users aged 65 and older, we recommend the Brief Dementia Screening Indicator (BDSI) and the Australian National University Alzheimer's Disease Risk Index (ANU-ADRI). The initial assessment should also include potentially modifiable risk factors including sociodemographic, lifestyle, and health factors. If resources allow, apolipoprotein E ɛ4 status testing and structural magnetic resonance imaging should be conducted. If this initial assessment indicates a low dementia risk, then low intensity interventions can be implemented. If the user has a high dementia risk, additional investigations should be considered if local resources allow. Common variant polygenic risk of late-onset AD can be tested in middle-aged or older adults. Rare variants should only be investigated in users with a family history of early-onset dementia in a first degree relative. Advanced imaging with 18-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) or amyloid PET may be informative in high risk users to clarify the nature and burden of their underlying pathologies. Cerebrospinal fluid biomarkers are not recommended for this setting, and blood-based biomarkers need further validation before clinical use. As new technologies become available, advances in artificial intelligence are likely to improve our ability to combine diverse data to further enhance risk profiling. Ultimately, Brain Health Services have the potential to reduce the future burden of dementia through risk profiling, risk communication, personalized risk reduction, and cognitive enhancement interventions.

The Relationship Between Cognitive Performance Using Tests Assessing a Range of Cognitive Domains and Future Dementia Diagnosis in a British Cohort: A Ten-Year Prospective Study.

BACKGROUND: Exploring the domains of cognitive function which are most strongly associated with future dementia may help with understanding risk factors for, and the natural history of dementia. OBJECTIVE: To examine the association of performance on a range of cognitive tests (both global and domain specific) with subsequent diagnosis of dementia through health services in a population of relatively healthy men and women and risk of future dementia. METHODS: We examined the association between performance on different cognitive tests as well as a global score and future dementia risk ascertained through health record linkage in a cohort of 8,581 individuals (aged 48-92 years) between 2004-2019 with almost 15 years follow-up (average of 10 years) before and after adjustment for socio-demographic, lifestyle, and health characteristics. RESULTS: Those with poor performance for global cognition (bottom 10%) were almost four times as likely to receive a dementia diagnosis from health services over the next 15 years than those who performed well HR = 3.51 (95% CI 2.61, 4.71 p < 0.001) after adjustment for socioeconomic, lifestyle, and biological factors and also prevalent disease. Poor cognition performance in multiple tests was associated with 10-fold increased risk compared to those not performing poorly in any test HR = 10.82 (95% CI 6.85, 17.10 p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Deficits across multiple cognitive domains substantially increase risk of future dementia over and above neuropsychological test scores ten years prior to a clinical diagnosis. These findings may help further understanding of the natural history of dementia and how such measures could contribute to strengthening future models of dementia.

Alcohol Consumption and Incident Cataract Surgery in Two Large UK Cohorts.

PURPOSE: To examine the association of alcohol consumption and type of alcoholic beverage with incident cataract surgery in 2 large cohorts. DESIGN: Longitudinal, observational study. PARTICIPANTS: We included 469 387 participants of UK Biobank with a mean age of 56 years and 23 162 participants of European Prospective Investigation of Cancer (EPIC)-Norfolk with a mean age of 59 years. METHODS: Self-reported alcohol consumption at baseline was ascertained by a touchscreen questionnaire in UK Biobank and a food-frequency questionnaire in EPIC-Norfolk. Cases were defined as participants undergoing cataract surgery in either eye as ascertained via data linkage to National Health Service procedure statistics. We excluded participants with cataract surgery up to 1 year after the baseline assessment visit or those with self-reported cataract at baseline. Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the associations of alcohol consumption with incident cataract surgery, adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity, Townsend deprivation index, body mass index (BMI), smoking, and diabetes status. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incident cataract surgery. RESULTS: There were 19 011 (mean cohort follow-up of 95 months) and 4573 (mean cohort follow-up of 193 months) incident cases of cataract surgery in UK Biobank and EPIC-Norfolk, respectively. Compared with nondrinkers, drinkers were less likely to undergo cataract surgery in UK Biobank (hazard ratio [HR], 0.89; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.85-0.93) and EPIC-Norfolk (HR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.84-0.97) after adjusting for covariables. Among alcohol consumers, greater alcohol consumption was associated with a reduced risk of undergoing cataract surgery in EPIC-Norfolk (P < 0.001), whereas a U-shaped association was observed in the UK Biobank. Compared with nondrinkers, subgroup analysis by type of alcohol beverage showed the strongest protective association with wine consumption; the risk of incident cataract surgery was 23% and 14% lower among those in the highest category of wine consumption in EPIC-Norfolk and UK Biobank, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest a lower risk of undergoing cataract surgery with low to moderate alcohol consumption. The association was particularly apparent with wine consumption. We cannot exclude the possibility of residual confounding, and further studies are required to determine whether this association is causal in nature.

Is there a dose-response relationship between musical instrument playing and later-life cognition? A cohort study using EPIC-Norfolk data.

INTRODUCTION: Musical instrument playing provides intellectual stimulation, which is hypothesised to generate cognitive reserve that protects against cognitive impairment. Studies to date have classified musicianship as a binary entity. This investigation draws on the dataset of the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer Norfolk study to examine the effect of frequency of playing on later-life cognition. METHODS: We compared three categorisations of self-reported musical playing frequency in late mid-life (12-month period) against cognitive performance measured after a 4-11 year delay, adjusted for relevant health and social confounders. Logistic regression models estimated the adjusted association between frequency of musical playing and the likelihood of being in the top and bottom cognitive deciles. RESULTS: A total of 5,693 participants (745 musicians) provided data on music playing, cognition and all co-variables. Classification of musicianship by frequency of playing demonstrated key differences in socio-demographic factors. Musicians outperformed non-musicians in cognition generally. Compared with non-musicians, frequent musicians had 80% higher odds of being in the top cognitive decile (OR 1.80 [95% CI 1.19-2.73]), whereas musicians playing at any frequency had 29% higher odds (95% CI 1.03-1.62). There was evidence of a threshold effect, rather than a linear dose-response relationship. DISCUSSION: This study supports a positive association between late mid-life musical instrument playing and later-life cognition, although causation cannot be assumed. Musicians playing frequently demonstrated the best cognition. 'Musicians' are a heterogeneous group and frequency of music playing seems a more informative measure than binary classification. Ideally, this more nuanced measure would be collected for different life course phases.

Sociodemographic and lifestyle predictors of incident hospital admissions with multimorbidity in a general population, 1999-2019: the EPIC-Norfolk cohort.

BACKGROUND: The ageing population and prevalence of long-term disorders with multimorbidity are a major health challenge worldwide. The associations between comorbid conditions and mortality risk are well established; however, few prospective community-based studies have reported on prior risk factors for incident hospital admissions with multimorbidity. We aimed to explore the independent associations for a range of demographic, lifestyle and physiological determinants and the likelihood of subsequent hospital incident multimorbidity. METHODS: We examined incident hospital admissions with multimorbidity in 25 014 men and women aged 40-79 in a British prospective population-based study recruited in 1993-1997 and followed up until 2019. The determinants of incident multimorbidity, defined as Charlson Comorbidity Index ≥3, were investigated using multivariable logistic regression models for the 10-year period 1999-2009 and repeated with independent measurements in a second 10-year period 2009-2019. RESULTS: Between 1999 and 2009, 18 179 participants (73% of the population) had a hospital admission. Baseline 5-year and 10-year incident multimorbidities were observed in 6% and 12% of participants, respectively. Age per 10-year increase (OR 2.19, 95% CI 2.06 to 2.33) and male sex (OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.19 to 1.47) predicted incident multimorbidity over 10 years. In the subset free of the most serious diseases at baseline, current smoking (OR 1.86, 95% CI 1.60 to 2.15), body mass index >30 kg/m² (OR 1.48, 95% CI 1.30 to 1.70) and physical inactivity (OR 1.16, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.29) were positively associated and plasma vitamin C (a biomarker of plant food intake) per SD increase (OR 0.86, 95% CI 0.81 to 0.91) inversely associated with incident 10-year multimorbidity after multivariable adjustment for age, sex, social class, education, alcohol consumption, systolic blood pressure and cholesterol. Results were similar when re-examined for a further time period in 2009-2019. CONCLUSION: Age, male sex and potentially modifiable lifestyle behaviours including smoking, body mass index, physical inactivity and low fruit and vegetable intake were associated with increased risk of future incident hospital admissions with multimorbidity.

Retinal Vasculometry Associations With Glaucoma: Findings From the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer-Norfolk Eye Study.

PURPOSE: To examine retinal vasculometry associations with different glaucomas in older British people. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. METHODS: A total of 8,623 European Prospective Investigation into Cancer-Norfolk Eye study participants were examined, who underwent retinal imaging, ocular biometry assessment, and clinical ascertainment of ocular hypertensive or glaucoma status (including glaucoma suspect [GS], high-tension open-angle glaucoma [HTG], and normal-tension glaucoma [NTG]). Automated measures of arteriolar and venular tortuosity, area, and width from retinal images were obtained. MainOutcomeMeasures: Associations between glaucoma and retinal vasculometry outcomes were analyzed using multilevel linear regression, adjusted for age, sex, height, axial length, intraocular and systemic blood pressure, and within-person clustering, to provide absolute differences in width and area, and percentage differences in vessel tortuosity. Presence or absence of within-person-between-eye differences in retinal vasculometry by diagnoses were examined. RESULTS: A total of 565,593 vessel segments from 5,947 participants (mean age 67.6 years, SD 7.6 years, 57% women) were included; numbers with HTG, NTG, and GS in at least 1 eye were 87, 82, and 439, respectively. Thinner arterioles (-3.2 µm; 95% confidence interval [CI] -4.4 µm, -1.9 µm) and venules (-2.7 µm; 95% CI -4.9 µm, -0.5 µm) were associated with HTG. Reduced venular area was associated with HTG (-0.2 mm2; 95% CI -0.3 mm2, -0.1 mm2) and NTG (-0.2 mm2; 95% CI -0.3 mm2, -0.0 mm2). Less tortuous retinal arterioles and venules were associated with all glaucomas, but only significantly for GS (-3.9%; 95% CI -7.7%, -0.1% and -4.8%; 95% CI -7.4%, -2.1%, respectively). There was no evidence of within-person-between-eye differences in retinal vasculometry associations by diagnoses. CONCLUSIONS: Retinal vessel width associations with glaucoma and novel associations with vessel area and tortuosity, together with no evidence of within-person-between-eye differences in retinal vasculometry, suggest a vascular cause of glaucoma.

Cross-sectional and prospective relationship between occupational and leisure-time inactivity and cognitive function in an ageing population: the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition in Norfolk (EPIC-Norfolk) study.

BACKGROUND: The current evidence for higher physical activity and better cognitive function and lower risk of dementia is strong but not conclusive. More robust evidence is needed to inform public-health policy. We provide further insight into discrepancies observed across studies, reporting on habitual inactivity including that during work. METHODS: We examined cross-sectional and prospective relationships of physical inactivity during leisure and occupation time, with cognitive performance using a validated physical-activity index in a cohort of 8585 men and women aged 40-79 years at baseline (1993-1997) for different domains using a range of cognitive measures. Cognitive testing was conducted between 2006 and 2011 (including a pilot phase 2004-2006). Associations were examined using multinomial logistic-regression adjusting for socio-demographic and health variables as well total habitual physical activity. RESULTS: Inactivity during work was inversely associated with poor cognitive performance (bottom 10th percentile of a composite cognition score): odds ratio (OR) = 0.68 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.54, 0.86], P = 0.001. Results were similar cross-sectionally: OR = 0.65 (95% CI 0.45, 0.93), P = 0.02. Manual workers had increased risk of poor performance compared with those with an occupation classified as inactive. Inactivity during leisure time was associated with increased risk of poor performance in the cross-sectional analyses only. CONCLUSIONS: The relationship between inactivity and cognition is strongly confounded by education, social class and occupation. Physical activity during leisure may be protective for cognition, but work-related physical activity is not protective. A greater understanding of the mechanisms and confounding underlying these paradoxical findings is needed.

Usual physical activity and subsequent hospital usage over 20 years in a general population: the EPIC-Norfolk cohort.

BACKGROUND: While physical activity interventions have been reported to reduce hospital stays, it is not clear if, in the general population, usual physical activity patterns may be associated with subsequent hospital use independently of other lifestyle factors. OBJECTIVE: We examined the relationship between reported usual physical activity and subsequent admissions to hospital and time spent in hospital for 11,228 men and 13,786 women aged 40-79 years in the general population. METHODS: Participants from a British prospective population-based cohort study were followed for 20 years (1999-2019) using record linkage to document hospital usage. Total physical activity was estimated by combining workplace and leisure time activity reported in a baseline lifestyle questionnaire and repeated in a subset at a second time point approximately 12 years later. RESULTS: Compared to those reporting no physical activity, participants who were the most active had a lower likelihood of spending more than 20 days in hospital odds ratio (OR) 0.88 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.81-0.96) over the next 20 years after multivariable adjustment for age, sex, smoking status, education, social class and body mass index. Participants reporting any activity had a mean of 0.42 fewer hospital days per year between 1999 and 2009 compared to inactive participants, an estimated potential saving to the National Health Service (NHS) of £247 per person per year, or approximately 7% of UK health expenditure. Participants who remained physically active or became active 12 years later had lower risk of subsequent hospital usage than those who remained inactive or became inactive, p-trend < 0.001. CONCLUSION: Usual physical activity in this middle-aged and older population predicts lower future hospitalisations - time spent in hospital and number of admissions independently of behavioural and sociodemographic factors. Small feasible differences in usual physical activity in the general population may potentially have a substantial impact on hospital usage and costs.

Cardiovascular risk factors associated with polymyalgia rheumatica and giant cell arteritis in a prospective cohort: EPIC-Norfolk Study.

OBJECTIVES: PMR and GCA are associated with increased risk of vascular disease. However, it remains unclear whether this relationship is causal or reflects a common underlying propensity. The aim of this study was to identify whether known cardiovascular risk factors increase the risk of PMR and GCA. METHODS: Clinical records were examined using key word searches to identify cases of PMR and GCA, applying current classification criteria in a population-based cohort. Associations between cardiovascular risk factors and incident PMR and GCA were analysed using Cox proportional hazards. RESULTS: In 315 022 person years of follow-up, there were 395 incident diagnoses of PMR and 118 incident diagnoses of GCA that met the clinical definition. Raised diastolic blood pressure (>90 mmHg) at baseline/recruitment was associated with subsequent incident PMR [hazard ratio=1.35 (95% CI 1.01, 1.80) P=0.045], and ever-smoking was associated with incident GCA [hazard ratio=2.01 (95% CI 1.26, 3.20) P=0.003]. Estimates were similar when the analysis was restricted to individuals whose diagnoses satisfied the current classification criteria sets. CONCLUSION: PMR and GCA shares common risk factors with vascular disease onset, suggesting a common underlying propensity. This may indicate a potential for disease prevention strategies through modifying cardiovascular risk.