Social and demographic correlates of cardiovascular mortality in the Kassena-Nankana districts of Ghana: a verbal post-mortem analysis.

BACKGROUND: The burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Ghana is rising, but details on its epidemiology are scarce. We sought to quantify mortality due to CVD in two districts in rural Ghana using verbal post-mortem (VPM) data. METHODS: We conducted a proportional sub-hazards analysis of 10 232 deaths in the Kassena-Nankana East and West districts from 2005 to 2012, to determine adult mortality attributed to CVD over time. We stratified results by age, gender and socio-economic status (SES), and compared CVD mortality among SES and gender strata over time. A competing risk model estimated the cumulative effect of eliminating CVD from the area. RESULTS: From 2005 to 2012, CVD mortality more than doubled overall, from 0.51 deaths for every 1000 person-years in 2005 to 1.08 per 1000 person-years in 2012. Mortality peaked in 2008 at 1.23 deaths per 1000 person-years. Increases were comparable in men (2.0) and women (2.3), but greater among the poorest residents (3.3) than the richest (1.3), and among persons aged 55-69 years (2.1) than those aged ≥70 years (1.8). By 2012, male and female CVD mortality was highest in middle-SES persons. We project that eliminating CVD would increase the number of individuals reaching age 73 years from 35% to 40%, adding 1.6 years of life expectancy. CONCLUSIONS: The burden of CVD on overall mortality in the Upper East Region is substantial and markedly increasing. CVD mortality has especially increased in lower-income persons and persons in middle age. Further initiatives for the surveillance and control of CVD in these vulnerable populations are needed.

Adapting a nurse-led primary care initiative to cardiovascular disease control in Ghana: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) is a growing cause of morbidity and mortality in Ghana, where rural primary health care is provided mainly by the Community-based Health Planning and Services (CHPS) initiative. CHPS locates nurses in community-level clinics for basic curative and preventive health services and provides home and outreach services. But CHPS currently lacks capacity to screen for or treat CVD and its risk factors. METHODS: In two rural districts, we conducted in-depth interviews with 21 nurses and 10 nurse supervisors to identify factors constraining or facilitating CVD screening and treatment. Audio recordings were transcribed, coded for content, and analyzed for key themes. RESULTS: Respondents emphasized three themes: community demand for CVD care; community access to CVD care; and provider capacity to render CVD care. Nurses and supervisors noted that community members were often unaware of CVD, despite high reported prevalence of risk factors. Community members were unable to travel for care or afford treatment once diagnosed. Nurses lacked relevant training and medications for treating conditions such as hypertension. Respondents recognized the importance of CVD care, expressed interest in acquiring further training, and emphasized the need to improve ancillary support for primary care operations. CONCLUSIONS: CHPS staff expressed multiple constraints to CVD care, but also cited actions to address them: CVD-focused training, provision of essential equipment and pharmaceuticals, community education campaigns, and referral and outreach transportation equipment. Results attest to the need for trial of these interventions to assess their impact on CVD risk factors such as hypertension, depression, and alcohol abuse.

Projected temperature-related deaths in ten large U.S. metropolitan areas under different climate change scenarios.

BACKGROUND: There is an established U-shaped association between daily temperature and mortality. Temperature changes projected through the end of century are expected to lead to higher rates of heat-related mortality but also lower rates of cold-related mortality, such that the net change in temperature-related mortality will depend on location. OBJECTIVES: We quantified the change in heat-, cold-, and temperature-related mortality rates through the end of the century across 10 large US metropolitan areas. METHODS: We applied location-specific projections of future temperature from over 40 downscaled climate models to exposure-response functions relating daily temperature and mortality in 10 US metropolitan areas to estimate the change in temperature-related mortality rates in 2045-2055 and 2085-2095 compared to 1992-2002, under two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). We further calculated the total number of deaths attributable to temperature in 1997, 2050, and 2090 in each metropolitan area, either assuming constant population or accounting for projected population growth. RESULTS: In each of the 10 metropolitan areas, projected future temperatures were associated with lower rates of cold-related deaths and higher rates of heat-related deaths. Under the higher-emission RCP 8.5 scenario, 8 of the 10 metropolitan areas are projected to experience a net increase in annual temperature-related deaths per million people by 2086-2095, ranging from a net increase of 627 (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI]: 239, 1018) deaths per million in Los Angeles to a net decrease of 59 (95% eCI: -485, 314) deaths per million in Boston. Applying these projected temperature-related mortality rates to projected population size underscores the large public health burden of temperature. CONCLUSIONS: Increases in the heat-related death rate are projected to outweigh decreases in the cold-related death rate in 8 out of 10 cities studied under a high emissions scenario. Adhering to a lower greenhouse gas emissions scenario has the potential to substantially reduce future temperature-related mortality.

Preoperative computed tomography scan to predict pancreatic fistula after distal pancreatectomy using gland and tumor characteristics.

BACKGROUND: Preoperative risk stratification for postoperative pancreatic fistula in patients undergoing distal pancreatectomy is needed. METHODS: Risk factors for postoperative pancreatic fistula in 220 consecutive patients undergoing distal pancreatectomy at 2 major institutions were recorded retrospectively. Gland density was measured on noncontrast computed tomography scans (n = 101), and histologic scoring of fat infiltration and fibrosis was performed by a pathologist (n = 120). RESULTS: Forty-two patients (21%) developed a clinically significant pancreatic fistula within 90 days of surgery. Fat infiltration was significantly associated with gland density (P = .0013), but density did not predict pancreatic fistula (P = .5). Recursive partitioning resulted in a decision tree that predicted fistula in this cohort with a misclassification rate less than 15% using gland fibrosis (histology), density (HU), margin thickness (cm), and pathologic diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: This multicenter study shows that no single perioperative factor reliably predicts postoperative pancreatic fistula after distal pancreatectomy. A decision tree was constructed for risk stratification.