Methadone in combination with magnesium, ketamine, lidocaine, and dexmedetomidine improves postoperative outcomes after coronary artery bypass grafting: an observational multicentre study.

BACKGROUND: An optimal pharmacological strategy for fast-track cardiac anesthesia (FTCA) is unclear. This study evaluated the effectiveness and safety of an FTCA program using methadone and non-opioid adjuvant infusions (magnesium, ketamine, lidocaine, and dexmedetomidine) in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting. METHODS: This retrospective, multicenter observational study was conducted across private and public teaching sectors. We studied patients managed by a fast-track protocol or via usual care according to clinician preference. The primary outcome was the total mechanical ventilation time in hours adjusted for hospital, body mass index, category of surgical urgency, cardiopulmonary bypass time and EuroSCORE II. Secondary outcomes included successful extubation within four postoperative hours, postoperative pain scores, postoperative opioid requirements, and the development of postoperative complications. RESULTS: We included 87 patients in the fast-track group and 88 patients in the usual care group. Fast-track patients had a 35% reduction in total ventilation hours compared with usual care patients (p = 0.007). Thirty-five (40.2%) fast-track patients were extubated within four hours compared to 10 (11.4%) usual-care patients (odds ratio: 5.2 [95% CI: 2.39-11.08; p < 0.001]). Over 24 h, fast-track patients had less severe pain (p < 0.001) and required less intravenous morphine equivalent (22.00 mg [15.75:32.50] vs. 38.75 mg [20.50:81.75]; p < 0.001). There were no significant differences observed in postoperative complications or length of hospital stay between the groups. CONCLUSION: Implementing an FTCA protocol using methadone, dexmedetomidine, magnesium, ketamine, lignocaine, and remifentanil together with protocolized weaning from a mechanical ventilation protocol is associated with significantly reduced time to tracheal extubation, improved postoperative analgesia, and reduced opioid use without any adverse safety events. A prospective randomized trial is warranted to further investigate the combined effects of these medications in reducing complications and length of stay in FTCA. TRIALS REGISTRATION: The study protocol was registered in the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ( https://www.anzctr.org.au/ACTRN12623000060640.aspx , retrospectively registered on 17/01/2023).

Venovenous bypass in adult liver transplant recipients: A single-center observational case series.

BACKGROUND: Very little information is currently available on the use and outcomes of venovenous bypass (VVB) in liver transplantation (LT) in adults in Australia. In this study, we explored the indications, intraoperative course, and postoperative outcomes of patients who underwent VVB in a high-volume LT unit. METHODS: The study was a single-center, retrospective observational case series of adult patients who underwent VVB during LT at Austin Health in Melbourne, Australia between March 2008 and March 2022. Information on baseline preoperative status and intraoperative variables, including specific VVB characteristics as well as postoperative and VVB-related complications was collected. The lengths of intensive care unit and hospital stays as well as intraoperative and in-hospital mortality were recorded. RESULTS: Of the 900 LTs performed at this center during the aforementioned 14-year period, 27 (3%) included a VVB procedure. VVB was performed electively in 16 of these 27 patients (59.3%) and as a rescue technique to control massive bleeding in the other 11 (40.1%). The median (interquartile range [IQR]) age of those who underwent VVB procedures was 48 (39-55) years; the median age was 56 (47-62) years in the non-VVB group (p<0.0001). The median model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores were similar between the two patient groups. Complete blood data was available for 622 non-VVB patients. Twenty-six VVB (96.3%) and 603 non-VVB (96.9%) patients required intraoperative blood transfusions. The median (IQR) number of units of packed red blood cells transfused was 7 (4.8-12.5) units in the VVB group compared to 3.0 units (1.0-6.0) in the non-VVB group (p<0.0001). Inpatient mortality was 18.5% and 1.1% for the VVB and non-VVB groups, respectively (p<0.0001). There were no significant differences in length of hospital stay or incidence of acute kidney injury, primary graft dysfunction, or long-term graft failure between the two groups. Patients in the VVB group experienced a higher rate of postoperative non-anastomotic biliary stricture compared to patients in the non-VVB group (33% and 7.9%, respectively; p = 0.0003). CONCLUSIONS: VVB continues to play a vital role in LT. This case series highlights the heightened risk of major complications linked to VVB. However, the global transition to selective use of VVB underscores the urgent need for collaborative multi-center studies designed to address outstanding questions and parameters related to the safe implementation of this procedure.

Textbook outcomes after oesophagectomy: a single-centre observational study.

BACKGROUND: Textbook outcomes is a composite quality assurance tool assessing the ideal perioperative and postoperative course as a unified measure. Currently, its definition and application in the context of oesophagectomy in Australia is unknown. The aim of this study was to assess the textbook outcomes after oesophagectomy in a single referral centre of Australia and investigate the association between textbook outcomes and patient, tumour, and treatment characteristics. METHODS: An observational study was retrospectively performed on patients undergoing open, laparoscopic, or hybrid oesophagectomy between January 2010 and December 2019 in a single cancer referral centre. A textbook outcome was defined as the fulfillment of 10 criteria: R0 resection, retrieval of at least 15 lymph nodes, no intraoperative complications, no postoperative complications greater than Clavien-Dindo grade III, no anastomotic leak, no readmission to the ICU, no hospital stay beyond 21 days, no mortality within 90 days, no readmission related to the surgical procedure within 30 days from admission and no reintervention related to the surgical procedure. The proportion of patients who met each criterion for textbook outcome was calculated and compared. Selected patient-related parameters (age, gender, BMI, ASA score, CCI score), tumour-related factors (tumour location, tumour histology, AJCC clinical T and N stage and treatment-related factor [neoadjuvant chemotherapy and surgical approach]) were assessed. Disease recurrence and one year survival were also evaluated. RESULTS: 110 patients who underwent oesophagectomy were included. The overall textbook outcome rate was 24%. The difference in rates across the years was not statistically significant. The most achieved textbook outcome parameters were 'no mortality in 90 days' (96%) and 'R0 resection' (89%). The least frequently met textbook outcome parameter was 'no severe postoperative complications' (58%), followed by 'no hospital stays over 21 days' (61%). No significant association was found between patient, tumour and treatment characteristics and the rate of textbook outcome. Tumour recurrence rate and overall long term survival was similar between textbook outcome and non-textbook outcome groups. Patients with R0 resection, no intraoperative complication and a hospital stay less than 21 days had reduced mortality rates. CONCLUSIONS: Textbook outcome is a clinically relevant indicator and was achieved in 24% of patients. Severe complications and a prolonged hospital stay were the key criteria that limited the achievement of a textbook outcome. These findings provide meticulous evaluation of oesophagectomy perioperative care and provide a direction for the utilisation of this concept in identifying and improving surgical and oncological care across multiple healthcare levels.

The impact of intraoperative and postoperative fluid balance on complications for transthoracic esophagectomy: a retrospective analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Transthoracic esophagectomy is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Therefore, it is imperative to optimize perioperative management and minimize complications. In this retrospective analysis, we evaluated the association between fluid balance and esophagectomy complications at a tertiary hospital in Melbourne, Australia, with a particular focus on respiratory morbidity and anastomotic leaks. Cumulative fluid balance was calculated intraoperatively, postoperatively in recovery postoperative day (POD) 0, and on POD 1 and 2. High and low fluid balance was defined as greater than or less than the median fluid balance, respectively, and postoperative surgical complications were graded using the Clavien-Dindo classification. RESULTS: In total, 109 patients, with an average age of 64 years, were included in this study. High fluid balance on POD 0, POD1 and POD 2 was associated with a higher incidence of anastomotic leak (OR 8.59; 95%CI: 2.64-39.0). High fluid balance on POD 2 was associated with more severe complications (of any type) (OR 3.33; 95%CI: 1.4-8.26) and severe pulmonary complications (OR 3.04; 95%CI: 1.27-7.67). For every 1 L extra cumulative fluid balance in POD 1, the odds of a major complication increase by 15%, while controlling for body mass index (BMI) and American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) class. The results show that higher cumulative fluid balance is associated with worsening postoperative outcomes in patients undergoing transthoracic esophagectomy. Restricted fluid balance, especially postoperatively, may mitigate the risk of postoperative complications - however prospective trials are required to establish this definitively.

Validation studies of verbal autopsy methods: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Verbal autopsy (VA) has emerged as an increasingly popular technique to assign cause of death in parts of the world where the majority of deaths occur without proper medical certification. The purpose of this study was to examine the key characteristics of studies that have attempted to validate VA cause of death against an established cause of death. METHODS: A systematic review was conducted by searching the MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane-library, and Scopus electronic databases. Included studies contained 1) a VA component, 2) a validation component, and 3) original analysis or re-analysis. Characteristics of VA studies were extracted. A total of 527 studies were assessed, and 481 studies screened to give 66 studies selected for data extraction. RESULTS: Sixty-six studies were included from multiple countries. Ten studies used an existing database. Sixteen studies used the World Health Organization VA questionnaire and 5 studies used the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium VA questionnaire. Physician certification was used in 36 studies and computer coded methods were used in 14 studies. Thirty-seven studies used high level comparator data with detailed laboratory investigations. CONCLUSION: Most studies found VA to be an effective cause of death assignment method and compared VA cause of death to a high-quality established cause of death. Nonetheless, there were inconsistencies in the methodologies of the validation studies, and many used poor quality comparison cause of death data. Future VA validation studies should adhere to consistent methodological criteria so that policymakers can easily interpret the findings to select the most appropriate VA method. PROSPERO REGISTRATION: CRD42020186886.

An Overview of Tobacco Policies in Kansas Unified School Districts.

Introduction: In 2019, 25.8% of Kansas high school youth reported using any form of tobacco product. Schools can prevent and reduce youth tobacco use by adopting comprehensive tobacco policies, which include all tobacco products, on school grounds and at school-sponsored, off-campus events, for all individuals at all times, and integrate cessation services for students who violate the tobacco policy. The purpose of this study was to determine the prevalence of comprehensive tobacco policies in unified school districts (USD) across Kansas to determine how many schools have adopted such policies. Methods: All 286 USDs in Kansas were eligible to participate in this study including elementary, middle, and high schools. Participating schools were asked to upload their policies to a website developed by the Kansas Department of Health and Environment (KDHE). Frequencies and percentages were computed to identify the type of tobacco products prohibited, the locations where tobacco use is prohibited, who is prohibited from using tobacco, when tobacco is prohibited, and consequences of students' violation of the tobacco policy. Results: Several USD policies met some of these comprehensive recommendations; however, 97.9% (n = 280) did not. In other words, 2.1% of USD policies (n = 6) were comprehensive in Kansas. Most districts (98.3%, n = 281) presented policies prohibiting use of all forms of tobacco for students, but policies often offered more leniency for faculty/staff and visitors. Fewer districts presented policies prohibiting use of all tobacco products for staff/faculty (73.1%, n = 209) and visitors (45.8%, n = 131) of policies. Conclusions: Nearly all USDs in Kansas have an opportunity to strengthen their tobacco policies. Relatively simple edits can be made to prohibit all tobacco products, prohibit use on school grounds and at school-sponsored, off-campus events, ensure these policies apply to everyone, at all times, and integrate cessation resources for students who violate the tobacco policy.

Validation of physician certified verbal autopsy using conventional autopsy: a large study of adult non-external causes of death in a metropolitan area in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Reliable mortality data are essential for the development of public health policies. In Brazil, although there is a well-consolidated universal system for mortality data, the quality of information on causes of death (CoD) is not even among Brazilian regions, with a high proportion of ill-defined CoD. Verbal autopsy (VA) is an alternative to improve mortality data. This study aimed to evaluate the performance of an adapted and reduced version of VA in identifying the underlying causes of non-forensic deaths, in São Paulo, Brazil. This is the first time that a version of the questionnaire has been validated considering the autopsy as the gold standard. METHODS: The performance of a physician-certified verbal autopsy (PCVA) was evaluated considering conventional autopsy (macroscopy plus microscopy) as gold standard, based on a sample of 2060 decedents that were sent to the Post-Mortem Verification Service (SVOC-USP). All CoD, from the underlying to the immediate, were listed by both parties, and ICD-10 attributed by a senior coder. For each cause, sensitivity and chance corrected concordance (CCC) were computed considering first the underlying causes attributed by the pathologist and PCVA, and then any CoD listed in the death certificate given by PCVA. Cause specific mortality fraction accuracy (CSMF-accuracy) and chance corrected CSMF-accuracy were computed to evaluate the PCVA performance at the populational level. RESULTS: There was substantial variability of the sensitivities and CCC across the causes. Well-known chronic diseases with accurate diagnoses that had been informed by physicians to family members, such as various cancers, had sensitivities above 40% or 50%. However, PCVA was not effective in attributing Pneumonia, Cardiomyopathy and Leukemia/Lymphoma as underlying CoD. At populational level, the PCVA estimated cause specific mortality fractions (CSMF) may be considered close to the fractions pointed by the gold standard. The CSMF-accuracy was 0.81 and the chance corrected CSMF-accuracy was 0.49. CONCLUSIONS: The PCVA was efficient in attributing some causes individually and proved effective in estimating the CSMF, which indicates that the method is useful to establish public health priorities.

Performance of the Universal Vital Assessment (UVA) mortality risk score in hospitalized adults with infection in Rwanda: A retrospective external validation study.

BACKGROUND: We previously derived a Universal Vital Assessment (UVA) score to better risk-stratify hospitalized patients in sub-Saharan Africa, including those with infection. Here, we aimed to externally validate the performance of the UVA score using previously collected data from patients hospitalized with acute infection in Rwanda. METHODS: We performed a secondary analysis of data collected from adults ≥18 years with acute infection admitted to Gitwe District Hospital in Rwanda from 2016 until 2017. We calculated the UVA score from the time of admission and at 72 hours after admission. We also calculated quick sepsis-related organ failure assessment (qSOFA) and modified early warning scores (MEWS). We calculated amalgamated qSOFA scores by inserting UVA cut-offs into the qSOFA score, and modified UVA scores by removing the HIV criterion. The performance of each score determined by the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) was the primary outcome measure. RESULTS: We included 573 hospitalized adult patients with acute infection of whom 40 (7%) died in-hospital. The admission AUCs (95% confidence interval [CI]) for the prediction of mortality by the scores were: UVA, 0.77 (0.68-0.85); modified UVA, 0.77 (0.68-0.85); qSOFA, 0.66 (0.56-0.75), amalgamated qSOFA, 0.71 (0.61-0.80); and MEWS, 0.74 (0.64, 0.83). The positive predictive values (95% CI) of the scores at commonly used cut-offs were: UVA >4, 0.35 (0.15-0.59); modified UVA >4, 0.35 (0.15-0.59); qSOFA >1, 0.14 (0.07-0.24); amalgamated qSOFA >1, 0.44 (0.20-0.70); and MEWS >5, 0.14 (0.08-0.22). The 72 hour (N = 236) AUC (95% CI) for the prediction of mortality by UVA was 0.59 (0.43-0.74). The Chi-Square test for linear trend did not identify an association between mortality and delta UVA score at 72 hours (p = 0.82). CONCLUSIONS: The admission UVA score and amalgamated qSOFA score had good predictive ability for mortality in adult patients admitted to hospital with acute infection in Rwanda. The UVA score could be used to assist with triage decisions and clinical interventions, for baseline risk stratification in clinical studies, and in a clinical definition of sepsis in Africa.

Improving methods to measure comparable mortality cause (IMMCMC) gold standard verbal autopsy dataset.

OBJECTIVES: Gold standard cause of death data is critically important to improve verbal autopsy (VA) methods in diagnosing cause of death where civil and vital registration systems are inadequate or poor. As part of a three-country research study-Improving Methods to Measure Comparable Mortality by Cause (IMMCMC) study-data were collected on clinicopathological criteria-based gold standard cause of death from hospital record reviews with matched VAs. The purpose of this data note is to make accessible a de-identified format of these gold standard VAs for interested researchers to improve the diagnostic accuracy of VA methods. DATA DESCRIPTION: The study was conducted between 2011 and 2014 in the Philippines, Bangladesh, and Papua New Guinea. Gold standard diagnoses of underlying causes of death for deaths occurring in hospital were matched to VAs conducted using a standardized VA questionnaire developed by the Population Health Metrics Consortium. 3512 deaths were collected in total, comprised of 2491 adults (12 years and older), 320 children (28 days to 12 years), and 702 neonates (0-27 days).

Factors and Outcomes Related to the Use of Guideline-Recommended Antibiotics in Patients With Neutropenic Fever at the Uganda Cancer Institute.

BACKGROUND: Neutropenic fever (NF) is associated with significant morbidity and mortality for patients receiving cancer treatment in sub-Saharan Africa (sSA). However, the antibiotic management of NF in sub-Saharan Africa has not been well described. We evaluated the timing and selection of antibiotics for patients with NF at the Uganda Cancer Institute (UCI). METHODS: We conducted a retrospective chart review of adults with acute leukemia admitted to UCI from 1 January 2016 to 31 May 2017, who developed NF. For each NF event, we evaluated the association of clinical presentation and demographics with antibiotic selection as well as time to both initial and guideline-recommended antibiotics. We also evaluated the association between ordered antibiotics and the in-hospital case fatality ratio (CFR). RESULTS: Forty-nine NF events occurred among 39 patients. The time to initial antibiotic order was <1 day. Guideline-recommended antibiotics were ordered for 37 (75%) NF events. The median time to guideline-recommended antibiotics was 3 days. Fever at admission, a documented physical examination, and abdominal abnormalities were associated with a shorter time to initial and guideline-recommended antibiotics. The in-hospital CFR was 43%. There was no difference in in-hospital mortality when guideline-recommended antibiotics were ordered as compared to when non-guideline or no antibiotics were ordered (hazard ratio, 0.51 [95% confidence interval {CI}, .10-2.64] and 0.78 [95% CI, .20-2.96], respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with acute leukemia and NF had delayed initiation of guideline-recommended antibiotics and a high CFR. Prospective studies are needed to determine optimal NF management in sub-Saharan Africa, including choice of antibiotics and timing of antibiotic initiation.

Born to fail: flaws in replication design produce intended results.

We recently published in BMC Medicine an evaluation of the comparative diagnostic performance of InSilicoVA, a software to map the underlying causes of death from verbal autopsy interviews. The developers of this software claim to have failed to replicate our results and appear to have also failed to locate our replication archive for this work. In this Correspondence, we provide feedback on how this might have been done more usefully and offer some suggestions to improve future attempts at reproducible research. We also offer an alternative interpretation of the results presented by Li et al., namely that, out of 100 verbal autopsy interviews, InSilicoVA will, at best, correctly identify the underlying cause of death in 40 cases and incorrectly in 60 - a markedly inferior performance to alternative existing approaches.

Automated verbal autopsy: from research to routine use in civil registration and vital statistics systems.

BACKGROUND: The majority of low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) do not have adequate civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems to properly support health policy formulation. Verbal autopsy (VA), long used in research, can provide useful information on the cause of death (COD) in populations where physicians are not available to complete medical certificates of COD. Here, we report on the application of the SmartVA tool for the collection and analysis of data in several countries as part of routine CRVS activities. METHODS: Data from VA interviews conducted in 4 of 12 countries supported by the Bloomberg Philanthropies Data for Health (D4H) Initiative, and at different stages of health statistical development, were analysed and assessed for plausibility: Myanmar, Papua New Guinea (PNG), Bangladesh and the Philippines. Analyses by age- and cause-specific mortality fractions were compared to the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study data by country. VA interviews were analysed using SmartVA-Analyze-automated software that was designed for use in CRVS systems. The method in the Philippines differed from the other sites in that the VA output was used as a decision support tool for health officers. RESULTS: Country strategies for VA implementation are described in detail. Comparisons between VA data and country GBD estimates by age and cause revealed generally similar patterns and distributions. The main discrepancy was higher infectious disease mortality and lower non-communicable disease mortality at the PNG VA sites, compared to the GBD country models, which critical appraisal suggests may highlight real differences rather than implausible VA results. CONCLUSION: Automated VA is the only feasible method for generating COD data for many populations. The results of implementation in four countries, reported here under the D4H Initiative, confirm that these methods are acceptable for wide-scale implementation and can produce reliable COD information on community deaths for which little was previously known.

Robustness of the Tariff method for diagnosing verbal autopsies: impact of additional site data on the relationship between symptom and cause.

BACKGROUND: Verbal autopsy (VA) is increasingly being considered as a cost-effective method to improve cause of death information in countries with low quality vital registration. VA algorithms that use empirical data have an advantage over expert derived algorithms in that they use responses to the VA instrument as a reference instead of physician opinion. It is unclear how stable these data driven algorithms, such as the Tariff 2.0 method, are to cultural and epidemiological variations in populations where they might be employed. METHODS: VAs were conducted in three sites as part of the Improving Methods to Measure Comparable Mortality by Cause (IMMCMC) study: Bohol, Philippines; Chandpur and Comila Districts, Bangladesh; and Central and Eastern Highlands Provinces, Papua New Guinea. Similar diagnostic criteria and cause lists as the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium (PHMRC) study were used to identify gold standard (GS) deaths. We assessed changes in Tariffs by examining the proportion of Tariffs that changed significantly after the addition of the IMMCMC dataset to the PHMRC dataset. RESULTS: The IMMCMC study added 3512 deaths to the GS VA database (2491 adults, 320 children, and 701 neonates). Chance-corrected cause specific mortality fractions for Tariff improved with the addition of the IMMCMC dataset for adults (+ 5.0%), children (+ 5.8%), and neonates (+ 1.5%). 97.2% of Tariffs did not change significantly after the addition of the IMMCMC dataset. CONCLUSIONS: Tariffs generally remained consistent after adding the IMMCMC dataset. Population level performance of the Tariff method for diagnosing VAs improved marginally for all age groups in the combined dataset. These findings suggest that cause-symptom relationships of Tariff 2.0 might well be robust across different population settings in developing countries. Increasing the total number of GS deaths improves the validity of Tariff and provides a foundation for the validation of other empirical algorithms.

Monitoring progress in reducing maternal mortality using verbal autopsy methods in vital registration systems: what can we conclude about specific causes of maternal death?

Reducing maternal mortality is a key focus of development strategies and one of the indicators used to measure progress towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. In the absence of medical certification of the cause of deaths that occur in the community, verbal autopsy (VA) methods are the only available means to assess levels and trends of maternal deaths that occur outside health facilities. The 2016 World Health Organization VA Instrument facilitates the identification of eight specific causes of maternal death, yet maternal deaths are often unsupervised, leading to sparse and generally poor symptom reporting to inform a reliable diagnosis using VAs. There is little research evidence to support the reliable identification of specific causes of maternal death in the context of routine VAs. We recommend that routine VAs are only used to capture the event of a maternal death and that more detailed follow-up interviews are used to identify the specific causes.

Effect of Empiric Anti-Mycobacterium tuberculosis Therapy on Survival Among Human Immunodeficiency Virus-Infected Adults Admitted With Sepsis to a Regional Referral Hospital in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Mycobacterium tuberculosis is the leading cause of bloodstream infection among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients with sepsis in sub-Saharan Africa and is associated with high mortality rates. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study of HIV-infected adults with sepsis at the Mbarara Regional Referral Hospital in Uganda to measure the proportion who received antituberculosis therapy and to determine the relationship between antituberculosis therapy and 28-day survival. RESULTS: Of the 149 patients evaluated, 74 (50%) had severe sepsis and 48 (32%) died. Of the 55 patients (37%) who received antituberculosis therapy, 19 (35%) died, compared with 29 of 94 (31%) who did not receive such therapy (odds ratio, 1.34; 95% confidence interval [CI], .56-3.18; P = .64). The 28-day survival rates did not differ significantly between these 2 groups (log-rank test, P = .21). Among the 74 patients with severe sepsis, 9 of 26 (35%) who received antituberculosis therapy died, versus 23 of 48 (48%) who did not receive such therapy (odds ratio, 0.58; 95% CI, .21-1.52; P = .27). In patients with severe sepsis, antituberculosis therapy was associated with an improved 28-day survival rate (log-rank test P = .01), and with a reduced mortality rate in a Cox proportional hazards model (hazard ratio, 0.32; 95% CI, .13-.80; P = .03). CONCLUSIONS: Empiric antituberculosis therapy was associated with improved survival rates among patients with severe sepsis, but not among all patients with sepsis.

The epidemiological transition in Papua New Guinea: new evidence from verbal autopsy studies.

BACKGROUND: Recent economic growth in Papua New Guinea (PNG) would suggest that the country may be experiencing an epidemiological transition, characterized by a reduction in infectious diseases and a growing burden from non-communicable diseases (NCDs). However, data on cause-specific mortality in PNG are very sparse, and the extent of the transition within the country is poorly understood. METHODS: Mortality surveillance was established in four small populations across PNG: West Hiri in Central Province, Asaro Valley in Eastern Highlands Province, Hides in Hela Province and Karkar Island in Madang Province. Verbal autopsies (VAs) were conducted on all deaths identified, and causes of death were assigned by SmartVA and classified into five broad disease categories: endemic NCDs; emerging NCDs; endemic infections; emerging infections; and injuries. Results from previous PNG VA studies, using different VA methods and spanning the years 1970 to 2001, are also presented here. RESULTS: A total of 868 deaths among adolescents and adults were identified and assigned a cause of death. NCDs made up the majority of all deaths (40.4%), with the endemic NCD of chronic respiratory disease responsible for the largest proportion of deaths (10.5%), followed by the emerging NCD of diabetes (6.2%). Emerging infectious diseases outnumbered endemic infectious diseases (11.9% versus 9.5%). The distribution of causes of death differed across the four sites, with emerging NCDs and emerging infections highest at the site that is most socioeconomically developed, West Hiri. Comparing the 1970-2001 VA series with the present study suggests a large decrease in endemic infections. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate immediate priorities for health service planning and for strengthening of vital registration systems, to more usefully serve the needs of health priority setting.

On the estimation of population cause-specific mortality fractions from in-hospital deaths.

BACKGROUND: Almost all countries without complete vital registration systems have data on deaths collected by hospitals. However, these data have not been widely used to estimate cause of death (COD) patterns in populations because only a non-representative fraction of people in these countries die in health facilities. Methods that can exploit hospital mortality statistics to reliably estimate community COD patterns are required to strengthen the evidence base for disease and injury control programs. We propose a method that weights hospital-certified causes by the probability of death to estimate population cause-specific mortality fractions (CSMFs). METHODS: We used an established verbal autopsy instrument (VAI) to collect data from hospital catchment areas in Chandpur and Comilla Districts, Bangladesh, and Bohol province, the Philippines, between 2011 and 2014, along with demographic covariates for each death. Hospital medical certificates of cause of death (death certificates) were collected and mapped to the corresponding cause categories of the VAI. Tariff 2.0 was used to assign a COD for community deaths. Logistic regression models were created for broad causes in each country to calculate the probability of in-hospital death, given a set of covariate values. The reweighted CSMFs for deaths in the hospital catchment population, represented by each hospital death, were calculated from the corresponding regression models. RESULTS: We collected data on 4228 adult deaths in the Philippines and 3725 deaths in Bangladesh. Short time to hospital and education were consistently associated with in-hospital death in the Philippines and absence of a disability was consistently associated with in-hospital death in Bangladesh. Non-communicable diseases (excluding stroke) and stroke were the leading causes of death in both the Philippines (33.9%, 19.1%) and Bangladesh (46.1%, 21.1%) according to the reweighted method. The reweighted method generally estimated CSMFs that fell between those derived from hospitals and those diagnosed by Tariff 2.0. CONCLUSIONS: Statistical methods can be used to derive estimates of cause-specific probability of death in-hospital for Bangladesh and the Philippines to generate population CSMFs. In regions where hospital death certification is of reasonable quality and routine verbal autopsy is not applied, these estimates could be applied to generate cost-effective and robust CSMFs for the population.