Incidence and risk factors of diabetes mellitus in the Chinese population: a dynamic cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: Diabetes mellitus is a common condition often associated with an ageing population. However, only few longitudinal studies in China have investigated the incidence of diabetes and identified its risk factors. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the incidence and risk factors of diabetes in Chinese people aged ≥45 years using the harmonised China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) data. DESIGN: A dynamic cohort study. SETTING: The harmonised CHARLS 2011-2018. PARTICIPANTS: 19 988 adults aged ≥45 years. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE: Incident diabetes from 2011 to 2018. RESULTS: The harmonised CHARLS is a representative longitudinal survey of people aged ≥45 years. Using data extracted from the harmonised CHARLS, we calculated the incidence of diabetes and used a competing risk model to determine risk factors of diabetes. In 2011-2013, 2013-2015, 2015-2018, the crude incidence of diabetes among middle-aged and older people in China was 1403.21 (1227.09 to 1604.19), 1673.22 (1485.73 to 1883.92) and 3919.83 (3646.01 to 4213.30) per 100 000 person-years, respectively, with a significant increasing trend. There were no geographical variations in the incidence of diabetes. Age, obesity and alcohol consumption were associated with an increased risk of incident diabetes. CONCLUSION: The incidence of diabetes increased annually, without any geographical differences. Age, obesity and alcohol consumption were found to be risk factors for incident diabetes.

The impact of increasing expenditure on National Essential Public Health Services on the medical costs of hypertension in China: A difference-in-difference analysis.

BACKGROUND: The prevention and control of hypertension should be an effective way to reduce deaths and it has been a high priority in China. In 2013, the Chinese government increased the subsidy standard for the National Essential Public Health Services Package (NEPHSP) from RMB 15 to RMB 30 per person, which was expected to cover 70 million hypertensions. This study explored the influence of increasing NEPHSP subsidy on outpatient and inpatient expenditure among patients with hypertension. METHODS: Data were mined from the 2011-2015 Harmonized China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study. The study sample included 3192 hypertensive patients who were not lost to follow-up from 2011 to 2015. Hypertensive patients who covered by NEPHSP from 2011 to 2015 were defined as the treatment group, otherwise defined as the comparison group. The policy intervention was the increase of NEPHSP subsidy in 2013, and the years before and after 2013 were respectively considered as pre- (2011) and post-intervention (2015). The primary outcomes variables were the outpatient and inpatient expenditure of patients with hypertension, based on direct spending of outpatients and inpatients separately reported by patients with hypertension. Using propensity score matching (PSM) to match the individual characteristics of hypertension in the treatment group and the comparison group, difference-in-differences (DID) were used to analyze the outcomes. RESULTS: The patients with hypertension' outpatient and inpatient expenditure patterns in the treatment and control group show an increasing trend from 2011 to 2015. After PSM, of the 1 956 hypertensive participants, 369 covered by the NEPHSP before and after 2013. A DID estimate of the increased NEPHSP subsidy was associated with a significant decrease of 1 251.35 RMB (t = 2.13, P = 0.034) in hypertension related inpatient expenditure, no significant change (t = 0.61, P = 0.544) among outpatient expenditure. CONCLUSIONS: The NEPHSP may reduce inpatient expenditure among hypertension. Further strengthening of the NEPHSP may reduce their burden.

Health technology assessment of medical devices: current landscape, challenges, and a way forward.

BACKGROUND: Health Technology Assessment (HTA) has been widely recognized as informing healthcare decision-making, and interest in HTA of medical devices has been steadily increasing. How does the assessment of medical devices differ from that of drug therapies, and what innovations can be adopted to overcome the inherent challenges in medical device HTA? METHOD: HTA Accelerator Database was used to describe the landscape of HTA reports for medical devices from HTA bodies, and a literature search was conducted to understand the growth trend of relevant HTA publications in four case studies. Another literature review was conducted for a narrative synthesis of the characteristic differences and challenges of HTA in medical devices. We further conducted a focused Internet search of guidelines and a narrative review of methodologies specific to the HTA of medical devices. MAIN BODY: The evidence of HTA reports and journal publications on medical devices around the world has been growing. The challenges in assessing medical devices include scarcity of well-designed randomized controlled trials, inconsistent real-world evidence data sources and methods, device-user interaction, short product lifecycles, inexplicit target population, and a lack of direct medical outcomes. Practical solutions in terms of methodological advancement of HTA for medical devices were also discussed in some HTA guidelines and literature. CONCLUSION: To better conduct HTA on medical devices, we recommend considering multi-source evidence such as real-world evidence; standardizing HTA processes, methodologies, and criteria; and integrating HTA into decision-making.

Regional variation of medical expenditures attributable to hypertension in China's middle-aged and elderly population.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension is a prevalent and costly health condition in China. Little is known about variation of the inpatient and outpatient expenditures attributable to hypertension between prefecture-level administrative regions (PARs) and the drivers of such variation among China's middle-aged and elderly population. METHODS: We obtain data from China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey between 2011 and 2015, panel tobit models were used in our study to estimate differences across 122 PARs. Expenditure variation was explained by the characteristics of individuals and regions, including measures of healthcare supply. RESULTS: The cost of treatment for patients with hypertension varies greatly geographically, with the highest outpatient and inpatient costs being 77 and 102 times the lowest, respectively. After adjustment for the individual and PAR character, there are associations between expenditure and region bed density. CONCLUSION: There were significant regional differences in the outpatient and inpatient costs of middle-aged and elderly patients with hypertension in China, the difference between individuals may be an important reason, which has little to do with regional economic development differences, but is related to regional bed density.

Health care cost and benefits of artificial intelligence-assisted population-based glaucoma screening for the elderly in remote areas of China: a cost-offset analysis.

BACKGROUND: Population-based screening was essential for glaucoma management. Although various studies have investigated the cost-effectiveness of glaucoma screening, policymakers facing with uncontrollably growing total health expenses were deeply concerned about the potential financial consequences of glaucoma screening. This present study was aimed to explore the impact of glaucoma screening with artificial intelligence (AI) automated diagnosis from a budgetary standpoint in Changjiang county, China. METHODS: A Markov model based on health care system's perspective was adapted from previously published studies to predict disease progression and healthcare costs. A cohort of 19,395 individuals aged 65 and above were simulated over a 15-year timeframe. Fur illustrative purpose, we only considered primary angle-closure glaucoma (PACG) in this study. Prevalence, disease progression risks between stages, compliance rates were obtained from publish studies. We did a meta-analysis to estimate diagnostic performance of AI automated diagnosis system from fundus image. Screening costs were provided by the Changjiang screening programme, whereas treatment costs were derived from electronic medical records from two county hospitals. Main outcomes included the number of PACG patients and health care costs. Cost-offset analysis was employed to compare projected health outcomes and medical care costs under the screening with what they would have been without screening. One-way sensitivity analysis was conducted to quantify uncertainties around model results. RESULTS: Among people aged 65 and above in Changjiang county, it was predicted that there were 1940 PACG patients under the AI-assisted screening scenario, compared with 2104 patients without screening in 15 years' time. Specifically, the screening would reduce patients with primary angle closure suspect by 7.7%, primary angle closure by 8.8%, PACG by 16.7%, and visual blindness by 33.3%. Due to early diagnosis and treatment under the screening, healthcare costs surged dramatically to $107,761.4 dollar in the first year and then were constantly declining over time, while without screening costs grew from $14,759.8 in the second year until peaking at $17,900.9 in the 9th year. However, cost-offset analysis revealed that additional healthcare costs resulted from the screening could not be offset by decreased disease progression. The 5-, 10-, and 15-year accumulated incremental costs of screening versus no screening were estimated to be $396,362.8, $424,907.9, and $434,903.2, respectively. As a result, the incremental cost per PACG of any stages prevented was $1464.3. CONCLUSIONS: This study represented the first attempt to address decision-maker's budgetary concerns when adopting glaucoma screening by developing a Markov prediction model to project health outcomes and costs. Population screening combined with AI automated diagnosis for PACG in China were able to reduce disease progression risks. However, the excess costs of screening could never be offset by reduction in disease progression. Further studies examining the cost-effectiveness or cost-utility of AI-assisted glaucoma screening were needed.

Impacts of government supervision on hospitalization costs for inpatients with COPD: An interrupted time series study.

To address the remaining medical misconducts after the zero-makeup drug policy (ZMDP), e.g., over-examinations, China has given the priority to government supervision on medical institutions. This study evaluated the effect of government supervision on medical costs among inpatients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in Sichuan province, the first province in China where the medical supervision was conducted.A linear interrupted time series (ITS) model was employed to analyze data about 72,113 inpatients from 32 hospitals. Monthly average medicine costs, diagnostic costs, and medical services costs, nursing costs from January 2015 to June 2018 were analyzed, respectively.The average hospitalization costs fell with a monthly trend of 42.90Yuan before the implementation of supervision (P < .001), and the declining trend remained with the more dramatic rate (-158.70Yuan, P < .001) after the government audit carried out. For western medicine costs, the monthly decreasing trend remained after the implementation of supervision (-66.44Yuan, P < .001); meanwhile, the monthly upward trend was changed into a downtrend trend for traditional Chinese medicine costs (-11.80Yuan, P = .009). Additionally, the increasing monthly trend in average diagnostics costs disappeared after government supervision, and was inversed to an insignificant decreasing trend at the rate of 26.18Yuan per month. Moreover, the previous upward trends were changed into downward trends for both medical service costs and nursing costs (P = .056, -44.71Yuan; P = .007, -11.17Yuan, respectively) after the supervision carried out.Our findings reveal that government supervision in Sichuan province was applicable to curb the growth of medical costs for inpatients with COPD, which may reflect its role in restraining physicians' compensating behaviors after the ZMDP. The government medical supervision holds promise to dismiss medical misconducts in Sichuan province, the experience of which may offer implications for other regions of China as well as other low- and middle-income countries.

Effects of mineral trioxide aggregate and bioceramics on macrophage differentiation and polarization in vitro.

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE: Mineral trioxide aggregate (Pro-Root MTA, PR-MTA) and bioceramics (iRoot® SP Injectable Root Canal Sealer, iR-BC) are used for making apical plugs used in apexification, repairing root perforations during root canal therapy, and treating internal root resorption. The purpose of the present in vitro study was to compare the biological effects of PR-MTA- and iR-BC-based dental sealers in the mouse macrophage cell line RAW 264.7. METHODS: Cytotoxicity and cell proliferation were analyzed using 3-(4,5-dimethylthiazol-2-yl)-2,5-diphenyltetrazolium bromide (MTT) assay and cell hemocytometer, respectively. Protein expression of biomarkers of cell proliferation, autophagy, and osteoclast differentiation was determined by western blotting. Pro-inflammatory gene expression was examined using quantitative reverse transcription-PCR. RESULTS: PR-MTA induced cytotoxicity in RAW 264.7 cells in a dose-dependent manner, and iR-BC was more cytotoxic than PR-MTA. Low-dose and short-term treatments of both PR-MTA and iR-BC induced RAW 264.7 cell proliferation. PR-MTA induced autophagy, whereas iR-BC did not. Neither PR-MTA nor iR-BC induced osteoclastogenesis. Pro-inflammatory genes were activated by both materials. However, the expression of inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNOS) mRNA was upregulated by iR-BC treatment, but not by PR-MTA treatment. CONCLUSION: Overall, dental PR-MTA and iR-BC induced pro-inflammatory genes but did not induce osteoclastogenesis in macrophages. PR-MTA and iR-BC induced M2 and M1 polarization, respectively, of RAW 264.7 cells.

Impact of the Global Budget Payment System on Expenditure of Cardiovascular Diseases: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis in Shanghai, China.

Since few studies evaluated the impact of the global budget payment system (GBPS) over time, and by expenditure type, this paper aims to evaluate the impact of the GBPS on expenditure of inpatients, and explores how hospitals curb the expenditure in patients with cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) in Shanghai. We built a time series model with the monthly expenditure of CVDs from 2009 to 2012. We evaluated the instant impact and trends impact of the GBPS and analyzed results based on medical expenditure types (e.g., drug, examination, cure, unclassified items), discharge number, and expenditure per capita. We found GBPS instantly dropped the medical expenditure by Chinese Yuan (CNY) 55.71 million (p < 0.001), and decreased the monthly increasing trend by CNY 4.23 million (p = 0.011). The discharge number had 10.4% instant reduction and 225.55 monthly decrease (p = 0.021) while the expenditure per capita experienced fewer changes. Moreover, the expenditure of drug and cure had an instant reduction of CNY 28.31 million and 16.28 million (p < 0.001). In conclusion, we considered the GBPS is an effective solution to control the expenditure of CVDs by decreasing the discharge number, and a focus on the drug and cure expenditures lead to greater spend reduction than other types of expenditures.

Does the leading pharmaceutical reform in China really solve the issue of overly expensive healthcare services? Evidence from an empirical study.

BACKGROUND: Healthcare system reform of Sanming city has become a leading healthcare reform model in China. It has developed a rigorous pharmaceutical reform consisted of the Zero Mark-up Drug Policy and the Centralized Procurement of Medicine Policy to bring down drug expenses and total health expenditures. However, despite the credit and much attention have been given to Sanming's pharmaceutical reform, its impact still remains unclear. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to explore the impact of the pharmaceutical reform of Sanming on both drug and total health expenditures. METHODS: Interrupted time series analysis with three segments divided by two intervention points was employed to evaluate the impact of the pharmaceutical reform. Segment 1 was the pre-reform period which captured the baseline information. Segment 2 occurred after the first intervention point when the Zero Mark-up Drug Policy was implemented, whereas Segment 3 was after the implementation of the Centralized Procurement of Medicine Policy. Primary outcomes are outpatient drug expenditure, outpatient total health expenditure, inpatient drug expenditure, and inpatient total health expenditure. Data spanning from May 2012 to May 2014 are included. RESULTS: Both drug and total health expenditures exhibited rising trends before any policy was carried out. The launch of Zero Mark-up Drug Policy led to significant instant reductions in levels of outpatient drug expenditure (coefficient = -6,602.99, p<0.01), outpatient total health expenditure (coefficient = -9,958.58, p<0.05), inpatient drug expenditure (coefficient = -7,520.90, p<0.01), and inpatient total health expenditure (coefficient = -16,737, p<0.01). Moreover, the previous upward trends were changed into downward trends for inpatient drug expenditure (coefficient = -2,747.02, p = 0.00) and total health expenditure (coefficient = -3,069.29, p = 0.12). However, after the implementation of Centralized Procurement of Medicine Policy, we observed no significant instant level changes and also, the inpatient drug expenditure (coefficient = 372.95, p = 0.01) and total health expenditure (coefficient = 788.76, p = 0.06) resumed upward trends again. CONCLUSIONS: Although the pharmaceutical reform could control or reduced drug expenditure and total health expenditure in short term, expenditures gradually resumed growing again and reached or even exceeded their baseline levels of pre-reform period, indicating the effect became weakened or even faded out in long term. In all, the pharmaceutical reform as a whole failed to meet its goal of combating sharp growth of drug and total health expenditure.