Predicting future cognitive decline from non-brain and multimodal brain imaging data in healthy and pathological aging.

Previous literature has focused on predicting a diagnostic label from structural brain imaging. Since subtle changes in the brain precede a cognitive decline in healthy and pathological aging, our study predicts future decline as a continuous trajectory instead. Here, we tested whether baseline multimodal neuroimaging data improve the prediction of future cognitive decline in healthy and pathological aging. Nonbrain data (demographics, clinical, and neuropsychological scores), structural MRI, and functional connectivity data from OASIS-3 (N = 662; age = 46-96 years) were entered into cross-validated multitarget random forest models to predict future cognitive decline (measured by CDR and MMSE), on average 5.8 years into the future. The analysis was preregistered, and all analysis code is publicly available. Combining non-brain with structural data improved the continuous prediction of future cognitive decline (best test-set performance: R2 = 0.42). Cognitive performance, daily functioning, and subcortical volume drove the performance of our model. Including functional connectivity did not improve predictive accuracy. In the future, the prognosis of age-related cognitive decline may enable earlier and more effective individualized cognitive, pharmacological, and behavioral interventions.

A deep learning based approach identifies regions more relevant than resting-state networks to the prediction of general intelligence from resting-state fMRI.

Prediction of cognitive ability latent factors such as general intelligence from neuroimaging has elucidated questions pertaining to their neural origins. However, predicting general intelligence from functional connectivity limit hypotheses to that specific domain, being agnostic to time-distributed features and dynamics. We used an ensemble of recurrent neural networks to circumvent this limitation, bypassing feature extraction, to predict general intelligence from resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging regional signals of a large sample (n = 873) of Human Connectome Project adult subjects. Ablating common resting-state networks (RSNs) and measuring degradation in performance, we show that model reliance can be mostly explained by network size. Using our approach based on the temporal variance of saliencies, that is, gradients of outputs with regards to inputs, we identify a candidate set of networks that more reliably affect performance in the prediction of general intelligence than similarly sized RSNs. Our approach allows us to further test the effect of local alterations on data and the expected changes in derived metrics such as functional connectivity and instantaneous innovations.