RESUMO
The long-range propagation of infrasound from a surface explosion with an explosive yield of about 17.6 t TNT that occurred on June 16, 2008 at the Utah Test and Training Range (UTTR) in the western United States is simulated using an atmospheric model that includes fine-scale layered structure of the wind velocity and temperature fields. Synthetic signal parameters (waveforms, amplitudes, and travel times) are calculated using parabolic equation and ray-tracing methods for a number of ranges between 100 and 800 km from the source. The simulation shows the evolution of several branches of stratospheric and thermospheric signals with increasing range from the source. Infrasound signals calculated using a G2S (ground-to-space) atmospheric model perturbed by small-scale layered wind velocity and temperature fluctuations are shown to agree well with recordings made by the dense High Lava Plains seismic network located at an azimuth of 300° from UTTR. The waveforms of calculated infrasound arrivals are compared with those of seismic recordings. This study illustrates the utility of dense seismic networks for mapping an infrasound field with high spatial resolution. The parabolic equation calculations capture both the effect of scattering of infrasound into geometric acoustic shadow zones and significant temporal broadening of the arrivals.
RESUMO
Most large (over a kilometre in diameter) near-Earth asteroids are now known, but recognition that airbursts (or fireballs resulting from nuclear-weapon-sized detonations of meteoroids in the atmosphere) have the potential to do greater damage than previously thought has shifted an increasing portion of the residual impact risk (the risk of impact from an unknown object) to smaller objects. Above the threshold size of impactor at which the atmosphere absorbs sufficient energy to prevent a ground impact, most of the damage is thought to be caused by the airburst shock wave, but owing to lack of observations this is uncertain. Here we report an analysis of the damage from the airburst of an asteroid about 19 metres (17 to 20 metres) in diameter southeast of Chelyabinsk, Russia, on 15 February 2013, estimated to have an energy equivalent of approximately 500 (±100) kilotons of trinitrotoluene (TNT, where 1 kiloton of TNT = 4.185×10(12) joules). We show that a widely referenced technique of estimating airburst damage does not reproduce the observations, and that the mathematical relations based on the effects of nuclear weapons--almost always used with this technique--overestimate blast damage. This suggests that earlier damage estimates near the threshold impactor size are too high. We performed a global survey of airbursts of a kiloton or more (including Chelyabinsk), and find that the number of impactors with diameters of tens of metres may be an order of magnitude higher than estimates based on other techniques. This suggests a non-equilibrium (if the population were in a long-term collisional steady state the size-frequency distribution would either follow a single power law or there must be a size-dependent bias in other surveys) in the near-Earth asteroid population for objects 10 to 50 metres in diameter, and shifts more of the residual impact risk to these sizes.
