Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and the development of atrial fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has been associated with atrial fibrillation (AF). More insight into the epidemiology and underlying mechanisms is required to optimize management. METHODS: The Rotterdam Study is a large, population-based cohort study with long-term follow-up. Time dependent Cox proportional hazard models were constructed to study the effect of COPD on incident AF, adjusted for age, sex and pack years of cigarette smoking, and additionally stratified according to exacerbation frequency, left atrial size and baseline systemic inflammatory levels. RESULTS: 1369 of 10,943 subjects had COPD, of whom 804 developed AF. The AF incidence rate was 14 per 1000 person years in COPD and 8 per 1000 person years in subjects without COPD. The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for COPD subjects to develop AF as compared to subjects without COPD was 1.28 (95%CI [1.04, 1.57]). COPD subjects with frequent exacerbations had a twofold increased AF risk (HR 1.99 [1.42, 2.79]) and COPD subjects with a left atrial size ≥40 mm also had an elevated AF risk (HR 1.77 [1.07, 2.94]). COPD subjects with baseline systemic inflammatory levels above the median had significantly increased AF risks (hsCRP≥1.83 mg/L: HR 1.51 [1.13, 2.03] and IL6 ≥ 1.91 ng/L: HR 2.49 [1.18, 5.28]), whereas COPD subjects below the median had in both analyses no significantly increased AF risk. CONCLUSIONS: COPD subjects had a 28% increased AF risk, which further increased with frequent exacerbations and an enlarged left atrium. The risk was driven by COPD subjects having elevated systemic inflammatory levels.

Lifetime risk of common neurological diseases in the elderly population.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the burden of common neurological disease in older adults in terms of lifetime risks, including their co-occurrence and preventive potential, within a competing risk framework. METHODS: Within the prospective population-based Rotterdam Study, we studied lifetime risk of dementia, stroke and parkinsonism between 1990 and 2016. Among 12 102 individuals (57.7% women) aged ≥45 years free from these diseases at baseline, we studied co-occurrence, and quantified the combined, and disease-specific remaining lifetime risk of these diseases at various ages for men and women separately. We also projected effects on lifetime risk of hypothetical preventive strategies that delay disease onset by 1, 2 and 3 years, respectively. RESULTS: During follow-up of up to 26 years (156 088 person-years of follow-up), 1489 individuals were diagnosed with dementia, 1285 with stroke and 263 with parkinsonism. Of these individuals, 438 (14.6%) were diagnosed with multiple diseases. Women were almost twice as likely as men to be diagnosed with both stroke and dementia during their lifetime. The lifetime risk for any of these diseases at age 45 was 48.2% (95% CI 47.1% to 51.5%) in women and 36.2% (35.1% to 39.3%) in men. This difference was driven by a higher risk of dementia as the first manifesting disease in women than in men (25.9% vs 13.7%; p<0.001), while this was similar for stroke (19.0%vs18.9% in men) and parkinsonism (3.3% vs 3.6% in men). Preventive strategies that delay disease onset with 1 to 3 years could theoretically reduce lifetime risk for developing any of these diseases by 20%-50%. CONCLUSION: One in two women and one in three men will develop dementia, stroke or parkinsonism during their life. These findings strengthen the call for prioritising the focus on preventive interventions at population level which could substantially reduce the burden of common neurological diseases in the ageing population.

Development and Validation of a Dementia Risk Prediction Model in the General Population: An Analysis of Three Longitudinal Studies.

OBJECTIVE: Identification of individuals at high risk of dementia is essential for development of prevention strategies, but reliable tools are lacking for risk stratification in the population. The authors developed and validated a prediction model to calculate the 10-year absolute risk of developing dementia in an aging population. METHODS: In a large, prospective population-based cohort, data were collected on demographic, clinical, neuropsychological, genetic, and neuroimaging parameters from 2,710 nondemented individuals age 60 or older, examined between 1995 and 2011. A basic and an extended model were derived to predict 10-year risk of dementia while taking into account competing risks from death due to other causes. Model performance was assessed using optimism-corrected C-statistics and calibration plots, and the models were externally validated in the Dutch population-based Epidemiological Prevention Study of Zoetermeer and in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative cohort 1 (ADNI-1). RESULTS: During a follow-up of 20,324 person-years, 181 participants developed dementia. A basic dementia risk model using age, history of stroke, subjective memory decline, and need for assistance with finances or medication yielded a C-statistic of 0.78 (95% CI=0.75, 0.81). Subsequently, an extended model incorporating the basic model and additional cognitive, genetic, and imaging predictors yielded a C-statistic of 0.86 (95% CI=0.83, 0.88). The models performed well in external validation cohorts from Europe and the United States. CONCLUSIONS: In community-dwelling individuals, 10-year dementia risk can be accurately predicted by combining information on readily available predictors in the primary care setting. Dementia prediction can be further improved by using data on cognitive performance, genotyping, and brain imaging. These models can be used to identify individuals at high risk of dementia in the population and are able to inform trial design.

Thyroid Function Within the Normal Range, Subclinical Hypothyroidism, and the Risk of Atrial Fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a highly prevalent disorder leading to heart failure, stroke, and death. Enhanced understanding of modifiable risk factors may yield opportunities for prevention. The risk of AF is increased in subclinical hyperthyroidism, but it is uncertain whether variations in thyroid function within the normal range or subclinical hypothyroidism are also associated with AF. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review and obtained individual participant data from prospective cohort studies that measured thyroid function at baseline and assessed incident AF. Studies were identified from MEDLINE and EMBASE databases from inception to July 27, 2016. The euthyroid state was defined as thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) 0.45 to 4.49 mIU/L, and subclinical hypothyroidism as TSH 4.5 to 19.9 mIU/L with free thyroxine (fT4) levels within reference range. The association of TSH levels in the euthyroid and subclinical hypothyroid range with incident AF was examined by using Cox proportional hazards models. In euthyroid participants, we additionally examined the association between fT4 levels and incident AF. RESULTS: Of 30 085 participants from 11 cohorts (278 955 person-years of follow-up), 1958 (6.5%) had subclinical hypothyroidism and 2574 individuals (8.6%) developed AF during follow-up. TSH at baseline was not significantly associated with incident AF in euthyroid participants or those with subclinical hypothyroidism. Higher fT4 levels at baseline in euthyroid individuals were associated with increased AF risk in age- and sex-adjusted analyses (hazard ratio, 1.45; 95% confidence interval, 1.26-1.66, for the highest quartile versus the lowest quartile of fT4; P for trend ≤0.001 across quartiles). Estimates did not substantially differ after further adjustment for preexisting cardiovascular disease. CONCLUSIONS: In euthyroid individuals, higher circulating fT4 levels, but not TSH levels, are associated with increased risk of incident AF.

Genetic Interactions with Age, Sex, Body Mass Index, and Hypertension in Relation to Atrial Fibrillation: The AFGen Consortium.

It is unclear whether genetic markers interact with risk factors to influence atrial fibrillation (AF) risk. We performed genome-wide interaction analyses between genetic variants and age, sex, hypertension, and body mass index in the AFGen Consortium. Study-specific results were combined using meta-analysis (88,383 individuals of European descent, including 7,292 with AF). Variants with nominal interaction associations in the discovery analysis were tested for association in four independent studies (131,441 individuals, including 5,722 with AF). In the discovery analysis, the AF risk associated with the minor rs6817105 allele (at the PITX2 locus) was greater among subjects ≤ 65 years of age than among those > 65 years (interaction p-value = 4.0 × 10-5). The interaction p-value exceeded genome-wide significance in combined discovery and replication analyses (interaction p-value = 1.7 × 10-8). We observed one genome-wide significant interaction with body mass index and several suggestive interactions with age, sex, and body mass index in the discovery analysis. However, none was replicated in the independent sample. Our findings suggest that the pathogenesis of AF may differ according to age in individuals of European descent, but we did not observe evidence of statistically significant genetic interactions with sex, body mass index, or hypertension on AF risk.

Genetic Obesity and the Risk of Atrial Fibrillation: Causal Estimates from Mendelian Randomization.

BACKGROUND: Observational studies have identified an association between body mass index (BMI) and incident atrial fibrillation (AF). Inferring causality from observational studies, however, is subject to residual confounding, reverse causation, and bias. The primary objective of this study was to evaluate the causal association between BMI and AF by using genetic predictors of BMI. METHODS: We identified 51 646 individuals of European ancestry without AF at baseline from 7 prospective population-based cohorts initiated between 1987 and 2002 in the United States, Iceland, and the Netherlands with incident AF ascertained between 1987 and 2012. Cohort-specific mean follow-up ranged from 7.4 to 19.2 years, over which period there was a total of 4178 cases of incident AF. We performed a Mendelian randomization with instrumental variable analysis to estimate a cohort-specific causal hazard ratio for the association between BMI and AF. Two genetic instruments for BMI were used: FTO genotype (rs1558902) and a BMI gene score comprising 39 single-nucleotide polymorphisms identified by genome-wide association studies to be associated with BMI. Cohort-specific estimates were combined by random-effects, inverse variance-weighted meta-analysis. RESULTS: In age- and sex-adjusted meta-analysis, both genetic instruments were significantly associated with BMI (FTO: 0.43 [95% confidence interval, 0.32-0.54] kg/m2 per A-allele, P<0.001; BMI gene score: 1.05 [95% confidence interval, 0.90-1.20] kg/m2 per 1-U increase, P<0.001) and incident AF (FTO, hazard ratio, 1.07 [1.02-1.11] per A-allele, P=0.004; BMI gene score, hazard ratio, 1.11 [1.05-1.18] per 1-U increase, P<0.001). Age- and sex-adjusted instrumental variable estimates for the causal association between BMI and incident AF were hazard ratio, 1.15 (1.04-1.26) per kg/m2, P=0.005 (FTO) and 1.11 (1.05-1.17) per kg/m2, P<0.001 (BMI gene score). Both of these estimates were consistent with the meta-analyzed estimate between observed BMI and AF (age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratio 1.05 [1.04-1.06] per kg/m2, P<0.001). Multivariable adjustment did not significantly change findings. CONCLUSIONS: Our data are consistent with a causal relationship between BMI and incident AF. These data support the possibility that public health initiatives targeting primordial prevention of obesity may reduce the incidence of AF.

Gene-gene Interaction Analyses for Atrial Fibrillation.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a heritable disease that affects more than thirty million individuals worldwide. Extensive efforts have been devoted to the study of genetic determinants of AF. The objective of our study is to examine the effect of gene-gene interaction on AF susceptibility. We performed a large-scale association analysis of gene-gene interactions with AF in 8,173 AF cases, and 65,237 AF-free referents collected from 15 studies for discovery. We examined putative interactions between genome-wide SNPs and 17 known AF-related SNPs. The top interactions were then tested for association in an independent cohort for replication, which included more than 2,363 AF cases and 114,746 AF-free referents. One interaction, between rs7164883 at the HCN4 locus and rs4980345 at the SLC28A1 locus, was found to be significantly associated with AF in the discovery cohorts (interaction OR = 1.44, 95% CI: 1.27-1.65, P = 4.3 × 10-8). Eight additional gene-gene interactions were also marginally significant (P < 5 × 10-7). However, none of the top interactions were replicated. In summary, we did not find significant interactions that were associated with AF susceptibility. Future increases in sample size and denser genotyping might facilitate the identification of gene-gene interactions associated with AF.

Association of Lipid-Related Genetic Variants with the Incidence of Atrial Fibrillation: The AFGen Consortium.

BACKGROUND: Several studies have shown associations between blood lipid levels and the risk of atrial fibrillation (AF). To test the potential effect of blood lipids with AF risk, we assessed whether previously developed lipid gene scores, used as instrumental variables, are associated with the incidence of AF in 7 large cohorts. METHODS: We analyzed 64,901 individuals of European ancestry without previous AF at baseline and with lipid gene scores. Lipid-specific gene scores, based on loci significantly associated with lipid levels, were calculated. Additionally, non-pleiotropic gene scores for high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDLc) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDLc) were calculated using SNPs that were only associated with the specific lipid fraction. Cox models were used to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of AF per 1-standard deviation (SD) increase of each lipid gene score. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 12.0 years, 5434 (8.4%) incident AF cases were identified. After meta-analysis, the HDLc, LDLc, total cholesterol, and triglyceride gene scores were not associated with incidence of AF. Multivariable-adjusted HR (95% CI) were 1.01 (0.98-1.03); 0.98 (0.96-1.01); 0.98 (0.95-1.02); 0.99 (0.97-1.02), respectively. Similarly, non-pleiotropic HDLc and LDLc gene scores showed no association with incident AF: HR (95% CI) = 1.00 (0.97-1.03); 1.01 (0.99-1.04). CONCLUSIONS: In this large cohort study of individuals of European ancestry, gene scores for lipid fractions were not associated with incident AF.

Role of Prestroke Vascular Pathology in Long-Term Prognosis After Stroke: The Rotterdam Study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Mortality after stroke remains high for years, mostly because of cardiovascular causes. Given that cardiovascular pathology plays an important role in causing the initial stroke, such prestroke pathology might also influence the prognosis after stroke. Within the population-based Rotterdam Study, we examined the proportion of deaths after stroke that are attributable to pre-existent cardiovascular risk factors before stroke (the population attributable risk). METHODS: We examined 1237 patients with first-ever stroke and 4928 stroke-free participants (between 1990 and 2012), matched on age, sex, examination round, and stroke date (index date). Cardiovascular risk factors measured on ≈4 years before index date were used as determinants. Participants were continuously followed up for mortality (≈6 years) after the index date. We calculated separate and combined population attributable risk of hypertension, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, body mass index, diabetes mellitus, smoking, transient ischemic attack, and atrial fibrillation. RESULTS: Nine hundred and nineteen patients with stroke and 2654 stroke-free participants died. The combined population attributable risk in patients with stroke was 27% (95% confidence interval, 14%-45%) and in stroke-free participants was 19% (95% confidence interval, 12%-29%). Population attributable risks of diabetes mellitus, smoking, and atrial fibrillation were higher in patients with stroke than in the reference group because of a higher prevalence of risk factors. In addition, people with atrial fibrillation and stroke had a higher hazard ratio for death than those with only atrial fibrillation. CONCLUSIONS: One quarter of deaths after stroke could theoretically be prevented with rigorous cardiovascular prevention and treatment, but this should preferably start before stroke occurrence. In addition, research into factors explaining the remaining deaths needs to be encouraged.

Association Between Atrial Fibrillation and Dementia in the General Population.

IMPORTANCE: Atrial fibrillation (AF) has been suggested as a risk factor for dementia since it may lead to chronic cerebral hypoperfusion and stroke. However, longitudinal studies assessing the association between AF and dementia have shown inconsistent results. OBJECTIVE: To determine the effect of AF on the risk of developing dementia during 20 years of follow-up. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: The association of prevalent and incident AF with incident dementia was assessed from July 6, 1989, to February 4, 2010, in 6514 dementia-free participants in the prospective population-based Rotterdam Study. Data analysis was conducted from September 18, 2014, to April 17, 2015. Cox proportional hazards regression models adjusting for age, sex, and cardiovascular risk factors; censored for stroke; and stratified by median age were used. In addition, we investigated whether the association between incident AF and dementia varied according to the duration of exposure, categorized in 6-year time bands. EXPOSURES: Prevalent and incident AF. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Incident dementia, determined according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (Third Edition Revised) and the National Institute of Neurological and Communicative Disorders and Stroke-Alzheimer's Disease and Related Disorders Association criteria. RESULTS: At baseline, 318 of 6514 participants (4.9%) had prevalent AF, and during 81 483 person-years of follow-up, 994 participants (15.3%) developed incident dementia. With findings presented as adjusted hazard ratio (95% CI), prevalent AF was related to an increased risk of dementia (1.33; 1.02-1.73). Among 6196 participants without prevalent AF during 79 003 person-years of follow-up, 723 participants (11.7%) developed incident AF and 932 individuals (15.0%) developed incident dementia. Incident AF was associated with an increased risk of dementia in younger participants (<67 years: 1.81; 1.11-2.94 vs ≥67 years: 1.12; 0.85-1.46; P = .02 for interaction). The risk of dementia was strongly associated with duration of exposure to AF in the younger participants (in the highest stratum: 3.30; 1.16-9.38; P = .003 for trend) but not in the elder participants (0.25; 0.04-1.86; P = .94 for trend). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Atrial fibrillation is associated with an increased risk of dementia, independent of clinical stroke. This association was strongest for younger participants with the longest duration of AF. Future studies should investigate whether optimal treatment of AF can prevent or postpone dementia.

Normal Thyroid Function and the Risk of Atrial Fibrillation: the Rotterdam Study.

CONTEXT: Hyperthyroidism is an established risk factor for atrial fibrillation (AF), but information concerning the association with variations within the normal range of thyroid function and subgroups at risk is lacking. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to investigate the association between normal thyroid function and AF prospectively and explore potential differential risk patterns. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: From the Rotterdam Study we included 9166 participants ≥ 45 y with TSH and/or free T4 (FT4) measurements and AF assessment (1997-2012 median followup, 6.8 y), with 399 prevalent and 403 incident AF cases. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Outcome measures were 3-fold: 1) hazard ratios (HRs) for the risk of incident AF by Cox proportional-hazards models, 2) 10-year absolute risks taking competing risk of death into account, and 3) discrimination ability of adding FT4 to the CHARGE-AF simple model, an established prediction model for AF. RESULTS: Higher FT4 levels were associated with higher risks of AF (HR 1.63, 95% confidence interval, 1.19-2.22), when comparing those in the highest quartile to those in lowest quartile. Absolute 10-year risks increased with higher FT4 in participants ≤ 65 y from 1-9% and from 6-12% in subjects ≥ 65 y. Discrimination of the prediction model improved when adding FT4 to the simple model (c-statistic, 0.722 vs 0.729; P = .039). TSH levels were not associated with AF. CONCLUSIONS: There is an increased risk of AF with higher FT4 levels within the normal range, especially in younger subjects. Adding FT4 to the simple model slightly improved discrimination of risk prediction.

Vitamin D and the risk of atrial fibrillation--the Rotterdam Study.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common chronic arrhythmia and it increases the risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Still there is not a complete understanding of its etiology and underlying pathways. Vitamin D might regulate renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system and might be involved in inflammation, both implicated in the pathophysiology of AF. The objective of this work was to investigate the association between vitamin D status with the risk of AF in the elderly. This study was conducted within the Rotterdam Study, a community-based cohort of middle-aged and elderly participants in Rotterdam, The Netherlands. We had 3,395 participants who were free of AF diagnosis at the start of our study and who had vitamin D data available. We analyzed the association between serum 25-hydroxivitamin D (25(OH)D) and incidence of AF using Cox regression models. Vitamin D deficiency was defined as serum 25(OH)D concentrations <50 nmol/l, insufficiency between 50 nmol/l and 75 nmol/l, while serum 25(OH)D concentrations equal to and above 75 nmol/l were considered as adequate. After mean follow-up of 12.0 years 263 (7.7%) participants were diagnosed with incident AF. Vitamin D status was not associated with AF in any of the 3 multivariate models tested (model adjusted for socio-demographic factors and life-style factors: HR per 10 unit increment in serum 25(OH)D 0.96, 95% CI: 0.91-1.02; HR for insufficiency: 0.82, 95%CI: 0.60-1.11,and HR for adequate status: 0.76, 95%CI: 0.52-1.12 compared to deficiency). This prospective cohort study does not support the hypothesis that vitamin D status is associated with AF.

Declining incidence of sudden cardiac death from 1990-2010 in a general middle-aged and elderly population: The Rotterdam Study.

BACKGROUND: Although sudden cardiac death (SCD) is relatively common, contemporary data on its incidence are lacking. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to investigate the current incidence of SCD and its trend over the past 2 decades in a general middle-aged and elderly population. METHODS: This study was performed within the Rotterdam Study, a prospective population-based cohort study of persons aged 45 years and older. Age-standardized incidence rates of SCD were calculated. To study trends in incidence, we compared 2 subcohorts within the total study population, 1 followed from 1990-2000 and the other from 2001-2010. RESULTS: From 1990-2010, 5512 of 14,628 participants died, of whom 583 (4.0%) were classified as SCD. The overall incidence was 4.2 per 1000 person-years. The incidence was higher in men (5.2 per 1000 person-years) than in women (3.6 per 1000 person-years). Age-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1.84 (95% confidence [CI] 1.56-2.17) and risk of SCD increased with age (HR 1.10 per year; 95% CI 1.09-1.11). The incidence rate from 1990-2000 was 4.7 per 1000 person-years vs 2.1 per 1000 person-years from 2001-2010 (age- and sex-adjusted HR of SCD 0.60, 95% CI 0.44-0.80). To check for cohort effects, we also analyzed the incidence of total mortality and found an age- and sex-adjusted HR of total mortality of 0.82 (95% CI 0.75-0.90) for the second compared to the first subcohort, which was significantly higher than the decline in SCD incidence. CONCLUSION: We found an incidence of SCD of 4.2 per 1000 person-years. The incidence decreased from 1990-2010, a period during which the diagnosis and treatment of heart disease greatly improved.

Gait shows a sex-specific pattern of associations with daily functioning in a community-dwelling population of older people.

BACKGROUND: Gait is increasingly considered an important indicator of health. Yet, little is known on the relation of gait with established health indicators, e.g. daily functioning. Although gait differs by sex, it is unknown whether different gait domains provide different health indicators in men or women. We investigated how gait associates with basic and instrumental activities of daily living (BADL and IADL) in community-dwelling persons. METHODS: In 2500 participants of the population-based Rotterdam Study (aged ≥ 50 yrs), gait was assessed by electronic walkway and summarized into seven independent gait domains: Pace, Rhythm, Phases, Tandem, Turning, Variability, Base of Support, which were averaged into Global Gait. We assessed BADL with the disability index of the Stanford Health Assessment Questionnaire and IADL with the Instrumental Activities of Daily Living scale. BADL and IADL were analyzed as continuous scores, and dichotomised: with impairment defined as moderate to very severe disability. RESULTS: In men, Global Gait, Pace, and Rhythm associated with BADL in linear analyses. In contrast, all domains except Base of Support associated with BADL or IADL in women. Associations of Global Gait and Phases with BADL were significantly stronger in women (p-interaction < 0.05). Similarly, associations of Global Gait, Rhythm, and Phases with IADL were stronger in women (p-interaction < 0.05). For dichotomised analyses, higher Global Gait, Pace, and Rhythm associated with less BADL-impairment in men, while Global Gait associated with less BADL and IADL-impairment in women. CONCLUSIONS: In men, Pace and Rhythm may suffice as health indicators, while women may require comprehensive gait assessment to better estimate their health status.

Sex differences in lifetime risk and first manifestation of cardiovascular disease: prospective population based cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate differences in first manifestations of cardiovascular disease between men and women in a competing risks framework. DESIGN: Prospective population based cohort study. SETTING: People living in the community in Rotterdam, the Netherlands. PARTICIPANTS: 8419 participants (60.9% women) aged ≥ 55 and free from cardiovascular disease at baseline. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: First diagnosis of coronary heart disease (myocardial infarction, revascularisation, and coronary death), cerebrovascular disease (stroke, transient ischaemic attack, and carotid revascularisation), heart failure, or other cardiovascular death; or death from non-cardiovascular causes. Data were used to calculate lifetime risks of cardiovascular disease and its first incident manifestations adjusted for competing non-cardiovascular death. RESULTS: During follow-up of up to 20.1 years, 2888 participants developed cardiovascular disease (826 coronary heart disease, 1198 cerebrovascular disease, 762 heart failure, and 102 other cardiovascular death). At age 55, overall lifetime risks of cardiovascular disease were 67.1% (95% confidence interval 64.7% to 69.5%) for men and 66.4% (64.2% to 68.7%) for women. Lifetime risks of first incident manifestations of cardiovascular disease in men were 27.2% (24.1% to 30.3%) for coronary heart disease, 22.8% (20.4% to 25.1%) for cerebrovascular disease, 14.9% (13.3% to 16.6%) for heart failure, and 2.3% (1.6% to 2.9%) for other deaths from cardiovascular disease. For women the figures were 16.9% (13.5% to 20.4%), 29.8% (27.7% to 31.9%), 17.5% (15.9% to 19.2%), and 2.1% (1.6% to 2.7%), respectively. Differences in the number of events that developed over the lifespan in women compared with men (per 1000) were -7 for any cardiovascular disease, -102 for coronary heart disease, 70 for cerebrovascular disease, 26 for heart failure, and -1 for other cardiovascular death; all outcomes manifested at a higher age in women. Patterns were similar when analyses were restricted to hard atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease outcomes, but absolute risk differences between men and women were attenuated for both coronary heart disease and stroke. CONCLUSIONS: At age 55, though men and women have similar lifetime risks of cardiovascular disease, there are considerable differences in the first manifestation. Men are more likely to develop coronary heart disease as a first event, while women are more likely to have cerebrovascular disease or heart failure as their first event, although these manifestations appear most often at older ages.

Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and the risk of atrial fibrillation: a population-based follow-up study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) and the risk of atrial fibrillation in a prospective community-based follow-up study of elderly individuals with uniform case assessment and data on potential confounders. DESIGN: Data came from the population-based follow-up study, the Rotterdam Study. PARTICIPANTS: The study comprised 8423 participants without atrial fibrillation at baseline. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Atrial fibrillation was ascertained from ECG assessments as well as medical records. Use of NSAIDs was obtained from automated prescription records by linkage with participating pharmacies. We used Cox proportional hazards models to study the association between NSAID drug use and atrial fibrillation. Use of NSAIDs was included in the model as a time-varying variable. RESULTS: At baseline, the mean age of the study population was 68.5 years (SD: 8.7) and 58% were women. During a mean follow-up of 12.9 years, 857 participants developed atrial fibrillation. Current use of NSAIDs was associated with increased risk compared with never-use (HR 1.76, 95% CI 1.07 to 2.88). Also, recent use (within 30 days after discontinuation of NSAIDs) was associated with an increased risk of atrial fibrillation compared with never-use (HR 1.84, 95% CI 1.34 to 2.51) adjusted for age, sex and several potential confounders. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, use of NSAIDs was associated with an increased risk of atrial fibrillation. Further studies are needed to investigate the underlying mechanisms behind this association.

Comparison of prognosis in unrecognized versus recognized myocardial infarction in men versus women >55 years of age (from the Rotterdam Study).

Unrecognized myocardial infarction (MI) is frequent in the general population. Its prognosis is reported to be at least as unpropitious as that of recognized MI, particularly in men. However, contemporary data with long follow-up are lacking. The aims of this study were to investigate the long-term prognosis of unrecognized MI with respect to all-cause and cause-specific mortality and to investigate possible differences in prognosis by gender. In the population-based Rotterdam Study (2,672 men and 3,862 women), the presence of unrecognized MI and recognized MI was determined at baseline (1990 to 1993). The cohort was followed for nearly 2 decades for all-cause and cause-specific mortality. During 82,268 patient-years of follow-up (median 15.6 years) 3,412 patients died (1,300 from cardiovascular causes). Men and women with recognized and unrecognized MIs had increased total mortality rates compared with those without MIs. Hazard ratios (HRs) for men and women were 1.57 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.36 to 1.81) and 1.89 (95% CI 1.56 to 2.30) for recognized MI and 1.72 (95% CI 1.43 to 2.07) and 1.36 (95% CI 1.14 to 1.61) for unrecognized MI. Unrecognized MI was associated with increased risks for cardiovascular mortality (men: HR 2.19, 95% CI 1.66 to 2.91; women: HR 1.36, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.81) and noncardiovascular mortality (men: HR 1.47, 95% CI 1.14 to 1.89; women: HR 1.39, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.75). In conclusion, the long-term prognosis of patients with unrecognized MIs is worse compared with those without MIs and applies not only to cardiovascular mortality but also to noncardiovascular mortality. In men, the prognosis is as unfavorable as that of patients with recognized MIs.