Psychological autopsy study comparing suicide decedents, suicide ideators, and propensity score matched controls: results from the study to assess risk and resilience in service members (Army STARRS).

BACKGROUND: The suicide rate has increased significantly among US Army soldiers over the past decade. Here we report the first results from a large psychological autopsy study using two control groups designed to reveal risk factors for suicide death among soldiers beyond known sociodemographic factors and the presence of suicide ideation. METHODS: Informants were next-of-kin and Army supervisors for: 135 suicide cases, 137 control soldiers propensity-score-matched on known sociodemographic risk factors for suicide and Army history variables, and 118 control soldiers who reported suicide ideation in the past year. RESULTS: Results revealed that most (79.3%) soldiers who died by suicide have a prior mental disorder; mental disorders in the prior 30-days were especially strong risk factors for suicide death. Approximately half of suicide decedents tell someone that they are considering suicide. Virtually all of the risk factors identified in this study differed between suicide cases and propensity-score-matched controls, but did not significantly differ between suicide cases and suicide ideators. The most striking difference between suicides and ideators was the presence in the former of an internalizing disorder (especially depression) and multi-morbidity (i.e. 3+ disorders) in the past 30 days. CONCLUSIONS: Most soldiers who die by suicide have identifiable mental disorders shortly before their death and tell others about their suicidal thinking, suggesting that there are opportunities for prevention and intervention. However, few risk factors distinguish between suicide ideators and decedents, pointing to an important direction for future research.

Childhood adversity, adult stress, and the risk of major depression or generalized anxiety disorder in US soldiers: a test of the stress sensitization hypothesis.

BACKGROUND: The stress sensitization theory hypothesizes that individuals exposed to childhood adversity will be more vulnerable to mental disorders from proximal stressors. We aimed to test this theory with respect to risk of 30-day major depressive episode (MDE) and generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) among new US Army soldiers. METHODS: The sample consisted of 30 436 new soldier recruits in the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience (Army STARRS). Generalized linear models were constructed, and additive interactions between childhood maltreatment profiles and level of 12-month stressful experiences on the risk of 30-day MDE and GAD were analyzed. RESULTS: Stress sensitization was observed in models of past 30-day MDE (χ2 8 = 17.6, p = 0.025) and GAD (χ2 8 = 26.8, p = 0.001). This sensitization only occurred at high (3+) levels of reported 12-month stressful experiences. In pairwise comparisons for the risk of 30-day MDE, the risk difference between 3+ stressful experiences and no stressful experiences was significantly greater for all maltreatment profiles relative to No Maltreatment. Similar results were found with the risk for 30-day GAD with the exception of the risk difference for Episodic Emotional and Sexual Abuse, which did not differ statistically from No Maltreatment. CONCLUSIONS: New soldiers are at an increased risk of 30-day MDE or GAD following recent stressful experiences if they were exposed to childhood maltreatment. Particularly in the military with an abundance of unique stressors, attempts to identify this population and improve stress management may be useful in the effort to reduce the risk of mental disorders.

Predicting non-familial major physical violent crime perpetration in the US Army from administrative data.

BACKGROUND: Although interventions exist to reduce violent crime, optimal implementation requires accurate targeting. We report the results of an attempt to develop an actuarial model using machine learning methods to predict future violent crimes among US Army soldiers. METHOD: A consolidated administrative database for all 975 057 soldiers in the US Army in 2004-2009 was created in the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS). Of these soldiers, 5771 committed a first founded major physical violent crime (murder-manslaughter, kidnapping, aggravated arson, aggravated assault, robbery) over that time period. Temporally prior administrative records measuring socio-demographic, Army career, criminal justice, medical/pharmacy, and contextual variables were used to build an actuarial model for these crimes separately among men and women using machine learning methods (cross-validated stepwise regression, random forests, penalized regressions). The model was then validated in an independent 2011-2013 sample. RESULTS: Key predictors were indicators of disadvantaged social/socioeconomic status, early career stage, prior crime, and mental disorder treatment. Area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve was 0.80-0.82 in 2004-2009 and 0.77 in the 2011-2013 validation sample. Of all administratively recorded crimes, 36.2-33.1% (male-female) were committed by the 5% of soldiers having the highest predicted risk in 2004-2009 and an even higher proportion (50.5%) in the 2011-2013 validation sample. CONCLUSIONS: Although these results suggest that the models could be used to target soldiers at high risk of violent crime perpetration for preventive interventions, final implementation decisions would require further validation and weighing of predicted effectiveness against intervention costs and competing risks.

Occupational differences in US Army suicide rates.

BACKGROUND: Civilian suicide rates vary by occupation in ways related to occupational stress exposure. Comparable military research finds suicide rates elevated in combat arms occupations. However, no research has evaluated variation in this pattern by deployment history, the indicator of occupation stress widely considered responsible for the recent rise in the military suicide rate. METHOD: The joint associations of Army occupation and deployment history in predicting suicides were analysed in an administrative dataset for the 729 337 male enlisted Regular Army soldiers in the US Army between 2004 and 2009. RESULTS: There were 496 suicides over the study period (22.4/100 000 person-years). Only two occupational categories, both in combat arms, had significantly elevated suicide rates: infantrymen (37.2/100 000 person-years) and combat engineers (38.2/100 000 person-years). However, the suicide rates in these two categories were significantly lower when currently deployed (30.6/100 000 person-years) than never deployed or previously deployed (41.2-39.1/100 000 person-years), whereas the suicide rate of other soldiers was significantly higher when currently deployed and previously deployed (20.2-22.4/100 000 person-years) than never deployed (14.5/100 000 person-years), resulting in the adjusted suicide rate of infantrymen and combat engineers being most elevated when never deployed [odds ratio (OR) 2.9, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.1-4.1], less so when previously deployed (OR 1.6, 95% CI 1.1-2.1), and not at all when currently deployed (OR 1.2, 95% CI 0.8-1.8). Adjustment for a differential 'healthy warrior effect' cannot explain this variation in the relative suicide rates of never-deployed infantrymen and combat engineers by deployment status. CONCLUSIONS: Efforts are needed to elucidate the causal mechanisms underlying this interaction to guide preventive interventions for soldiers at high suicide risk.

Understanding the elevated suicide risk of female soldiers during deployments.

BACKGROUND: The Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS) has found that the proportional elevation in the US Army enlisted soldier suicide rate during deployment (compared with the never-deployed or previously deployed) is significantly higher among women than men, raising the possibility of gender differences in the adverse psychological effects of deployment. METHOD: Person-month survival models based on a consolidated administrative database for active duty enlisted Regular Army soldiers in 2004-2009 (n = 975,057) were used to characterize the gender × deployment interaction predicting suicide. Four explanatory hypotheses were explored involving the proportion of females in each soldier's occupation, the proportion of same-gender soldiers in each soldier's unit, whether the soldier reported sexual assault victimization in the previous 12 months, and the soldier's pre-deployment history of treated mental/behavioral disorders. RESULTS: The suicide rate of currently deployed women (14.0/100,000 person-years) was 3.1-3.5 times the rates of other (i.e. never-deployed/previously deployed) women. The suicide rate of currently deployed men (22.6/100,000 person-years) was 0.9-1.2 times the rates of other men. The adjusted (for time trends, sociodemographics, and Army career variables) female:male odds ratio comparing the suicide rates of currently deployed v. other women v. men was 2.8 (95% confidence interval 1.1-6.8), became 2.4 after excluding soldiers with Direct Combat Arms occupations, and remained elevated (in the range 1.9-2.8) after adjusting for the hypothesized explanatory variables. CONCLUSIONS: These results are valuable in excluding otherwise plausible hypotheses for the elevated suicide rate of deployed women and point to the importance of expanding future research on the psychological challenges of deployment for women.

Sociodemographic and career history predictors of suicide mortality in the United States Army 2004-2009.

BACKGROUND: The US Army suicide rate has increased sharply in recent years. Identifying significant predictors of Army suicides in Army and Department of Defense (DoD) administrative records might help focus prevention efforts and guide intervention content. Previous studies of administrative data, although documenting significant predictors, were based on limited samples and models. A career history perspective is used here to develop more textured models. METHOD: The analysis was carried out as part of the Historical Administrative Data Study (HADS) of the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS). De-identified data were combined across numerous Army and DoD administrative data systems for all Regular Army soldiers on active duty in 2004-2009. Multivariate associations of sociodemographics and Army career variables with suicide were examined in subgroups defined by time in service, rank and deployment history. RESULTS: Several novel results were found that could have intervention implications. The most notable of these were significantly elevated suicide rates (69.6-80.0 suicides per 100 000 person-years compared with 18.5 suicides per 100 000 person-years in the total Army) among enlisted soldiers deployed either during their first year of service or with less than expected (based on time in service) junior enlisted rank; a substantially greater rise in suicide among women than men during deployment; and a protective effect of marriage against suicide only during deployment. CONCLUSIONS: A career history approach produces several actionable insights missed in less textured analyses of administrative data predictors. Expansion of analyses to a richer set of predictors might help refine understanding of intervention implications.

Sex dimorphism in the association of cardiometabolic characteristics and osteophytes-defined radiographic knee osteoarthritis among obese and non-obese adults: NHANES III.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the relationship of knee osteoarthritis (OA) with cardiovascular and metabolic risk factors by obesity status and gender. METHODS: Data from 1,066 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III participants (≥60 years of age) was used to examine relationships of osteophytes-defined radiographic knee OA and cardiovascular and metabolic measures. Analyses were considered among obese [body mass index (BMI)≥30 kg/m(2)] and non-obese (BMI<30 kg/m(2)) men and women. RESULTS: The prevalence of osteophytes-defined radiographic knee OA was 34%. Leptin levels and homeostatic model assessment-insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), a proxy measure of insulin resistance, were significantly associated with knee OA; those with knee OA had 35% higher HOMA-IR values and 52% higher leptin levels compared to those without knee OA. The magnitude of the association between HOMA-IR and knee OA was strongest among men, regardless of obesity status; odds ratios (ORs) for HOMA-IR were 34% greater among non-obese men (OR=1.18) vs obese women (OR=0.88). Among obese women, a 5-µg/L higher leptin was associated with nearly 30% higher odds of having knee OA (OR=1.28). Among men, ORs for the association of leptin and knee OA were in the opposite direction. CONCLUSIONS: Cardiometabolic dysfunction is related to osteophytes-defined radiographic knee OA prevalence and persists within subgroups defined by obesity status and gender. A sex dimorphism in the direction and magnitude of cardiometabolic risk factors with respect to knee OA was described including HOMA-IR being associated with OA prevalence among men while leptin levels were most important among women.

Twelve-month mental disorders in South Africa: prevalence, service use and demographic correlates in the population-based South African Stress and Health Study.

BACKGROUND: South Africa's history and current social conditions suggest that mental disorders are likely to be a major contributor to disease burden, but there has been no national study using standardized assessment tools. METHOD: The South African Stress and Health Study was a nationally representative in-person psychiatric epidemiological survey of 4351 adults (aged 18 years) that was conducted as part of the WHO World Mental Health (WMH) Survey Initiative between January 2002 and June 2004. Twelve-month prevalence and severity of DSM-IV disorders, treatment, and sociodemographic correlates were assessed with Version 3.0 of the WHO Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI 3.0). RESULTS: The 12-month prevalence of any DSM-IV/CIDI disorder was 16.5%, with 26.2% of respondents with disorder classified as severe cases and an additional 31.1% as moderately severe cases. The most common disorders were agoraphobia (4.8%), major depressive disorder (4.9%) and alcohol abuse or dependence (4.5%). Twenty-eight percent of adults with a severe or moderately severe disorder received treatment compared to 24.4% of mild cases. Some 13.8% of persons with no disorder received treatment. Treatment was mostly provided by the general medical sector with few people receiving treatment from mental health providers. CONCLUSIONS: Psychiatric disorders are much higher in South Africa than in Nigeria and there is a high level of unmet need among persons with severe and moderately severe disorders.

Prevalence of dementia in the United States: the aging, demographics, and memory study.

AIM: To estimate the prevalence of Alzheimer's disease (AD) and other dementias in the USA using a nationally representative sample. METHODS: The Aging, Demographics, and Memory Study sample was composed of 856 individuals aged 71 years and older from the nationally representative Health and Retirement Study (HRS) who were evaluated for dementia using a comprehensive in-home assessment. An expert consensus panel used this information to assign a diagnosis of normal cognition, cognitive impairment but not demented, or dementia (and dementia subtype). Using sampling weights derived from the HRS, we estimated the national prevalence of dementia, AD and vascular dementia by age and gender. RESULTS: The prevalence of dementia among individuals aged 71 and older was 13.9%, comprising about 3.4 million individuals in the USA in 2002. The corresponding values for AD were 9.7% and 2.4 million individuals. Dementia prevalence increased with age, from 5.0% of those aged 71-79 years to 37.4% of those aged 90 and older. CONCLUSIONS: Dementia prevalence estimates from this first nationally representative population-based study of dementia in the USA to include subjects from all regions of the country can provide essential information for effective planning for the impending healthcare needs of the large and increasing number of individuals at risk for dementia as our population ages.

Potential risk factors for undifferentiated connective tissue disease among women: implanted medical devices.

A case-control study was conducted among 205 women in Michigan and Ohio who were diagnosed with undifferentiated connective tissue disease (UCTD) to investigate the significance of self-reported past exposures to implanted silicone-containing or non-silicone-containing medical devices. The 205 UCTD cases were compared with 2,095 controls who were sampled by random digit dialing. When silicone-containing devices, including shunts and catheters, were analyzed collectively, a significant association was observed (odds ratio (OR) = 2.81, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.34, 5.89). The odds ratio for exposure to breast implants was increased, but not significantly (OR = 2.22, 95% CI: 0.65, 7.57). Among the non-silicone-containing devices, artificial joints (OR = 5.01, 95% CI: 1.60, 15.71) and orthopedic metallic fixation devices (OR = 1.95, 95% CI: 1.05, 3.60) were associated with UCTD. The estimations of risk associated with implanted medical devices in UCTD cases were explored in a comparison with 660 scleroderma patients who were ascertained concurrently in Michigan and Ohio. In general, the associations that were observed with non-silicone-containing devices, and more specifically with the fixation devices, persisted in the comparison of UCTD cases with scleroderma patients. The studies conducted among populations in Michigan and Ohio are intended to stimulate new hypotheses, innovative approaches, and the fostering of understanding of the environmental determinants of autoimmune disease.

Age-specific distribution of serum prostate-specific antigen in a community-based study of African-American men.

OBJECTIVES: Previous studies have observed higher age-specific serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) values in African-American (AA) men without prostate cancer compared to white men, leading some to recommend race-specific PSA reference ranges for the early detection of prostate cancer. The primary objective of the Flint Men's Health Study was to determine age-specific PSA reference values in a community-based sample of AA men, aged 40 to 79 years. METHODS: A probability sample of 943 AA men was selected from households in Genesee County, Michigan. Men without a prior history of prostate cancer/surgery were invited to participate in a prostate cancer screening protocol, consisting of measurement of serum total PSA, free/total PSA ratio, and digital rectal examination. Sextant biopsies were recommended, based on total PSA greater than 4.0 ng/mL and/or an abnormal digital rectal examination. RESULTS: From the sample of 943 men, 732 were eligible, 432 had blood drawn for PSA testing, and 374 completed all phases of the clinical examination. The 95th percentile PSA values were estimated to range from 2.36 ng/mL for men in the fifth decade to 5.59 ng/mL for men in the eighth decade. The 95th percentile values for age-specific PSA were comparable to those observed in a similar study of white men in Olmsted County, Minnesota. The median and 5th percentile values for free/total PSA did not vary significantly across age. CONCLUSIONS: The minor differences in PSA reference ranges between AA and white men may not be of sufficient magnitude to recommend the use of race-specific PSA reference ranges for screening.

Potential selection bias in a community-based study of PSA levels in African-American men.

The first phase of the Flint Men's Health Study (FMHS) in Michigan was a community-based epidemiologic study of prostate cancer and benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) in African-Americans aged 40 to 79 years. An objective of the FMHS was to determine age-specified prostate specific antigen (PSA) reference ranges in a random population sample of African-American men without clinically evident prostate cancer. The FMHS study protocol included an initial in-home epidemiologic interview followed by PSA testing and a urologic examination of eligible subjects. Since the participation rate in the PSA phase of the study was under 60%, it was important to determine whether selectivity in participation biased the FMHS results for age-specific PSA distributions. Logistic regression analyses were used to investigate selectivity in the sample of subjects who participated in the PSA testing and urologic examination. Younger men, with current urologic symptoms, and with a family history of prostate cancer were more likely to participate in the PSA testing and urologic examination. Linear regression analysis indicated that greater participation by African-American men without clinically evident prostate cancer but with obstructive or irritative lower urinary tract symptoms or a family history of prostate cancer did not bias the estimated age-specific reference ranges for total PSA concentrations and free-to-total PSA ratios.

Occupational injuries among older workers with disabilities: a prospective cohort study of the Health and Retirement Survey, 1992 to 1994.

OBJECTIVES: We tested the hypothesis that among older workers, disabilities in general, and hearing and visual impairments in particular, are risk factors for occupational injuries. METHODS: Using the first 2 interviews of the Health and Retirement Study, a nationally representative survey of Americans aged 51 to 61 years, we conducted a prospective cohort study of 5600 employed nonfarmers. RESULTS: Testing a logistic regression model developed in a previous cross-sectional study, we found that the following occupations and risk factors were associated with occupational injury as estimated by odds ratios: service personnel, odds ratio = 1.71 (95% confidence interval = 1.13, 2.57); mechanics and repairers, 3.47 (1.98, 6.10); operators and assemblers, 2.33 (1.51, 3.61); laborers, 3.16 (1.67, 5.98); jobs requiring heavy lifting, 2.05 (1.55, 2.70); self-employment, 0.50 (0.34, 0.73); and self-reported disability, 1.58 (1.14, 2.19). Replacing the general disability variable with specific hearing and visual impairment variables, we found that poor hearing (1.35 [0.95, 1.93]) and poor sight (1.45 [0.94, 2.22]) both had elevated odds ratios. CONCLUSIONS: Poor sight and poor hearing, as well as work disabilities in general, are associated with occupational injuries among older workers.

The epidemiology of scleroderma among women: assessment of risk from exposure to silicone and silica.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the relationship between exposure to silicone (including breast implants) and silica and the development of scleroderma (systemic sclerosis, SSc) among women. METHODS: A population based case-control study was conducted among women in Michigan. 274 confirmed cases of SSc diagnosed between 1985 and 1991 were identified by contacting rheumatologists, hospitals, and a scleroderma support group. These cases and 1184 controls were interviewed by telephone to ascertain past exposures to silicone or silica. RESULTS: Silicone in the form of breast implants was not associated with significantly increased risk of SSc (adjusted odds ratio, 1.30; 95% confidence interval, 0.27 to 6.23). Among 20 other potential silicone exposure surveyed, self-reported exposure to silicone based glues, sealants, and caulks, manufacture or repair of windows or windshields, repairing or frequently using photocopy machines, consumption of simethicone-containing antacids, and implanted medication delivery pumps were significantly associated with SSc. However, blinded assessment of all job and hobby descriptions in terms of their potential for silicone exposure failed to support the first 3 associations, antacid consumption may have been confounded by esophageal dysmotility before the diagnosis of SSc, and other silicone containing device categories (pacemakers, central nervous system shunts, other shunts and catheters) were not significantly associated with SSc. Surgically implanted metallic fixation devices were associated with significantly reduced risk for SSc. No association was detected between SSc and silica dust exposure. CONCLUSION: Consistent with other studies, we found no increased risk of SSc among women with silicone breast implants, equivocal evidence of risk from other silicone exposures, and no evidence of risk from silica exposure.

Risk factors for occupational injuries among older workers: an analysis of the health and retirement study.

OBJECTIVES: This study examined risk factors for occupational injury among older workers. METHODS: We analyzed data on 6854 employed nonfarmers from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), a population-based sample of Americans 51 through 61 years old. RESULTS: Occupational injuries were associated with the following: the occupations of mechanics and repairers (odds ratio [OR] = 2.27), service personnel (OR = 1.68), and laborers (OR = 2.18); jobs requiring heavy lifting (OR = 2.75); workers' impaired hearing (OR = 1.60) and impaired vision (OR = 1.53); and jobs requiring good vision (OR = 1.43). Self-employment was associated with fewer injuries (OR = 0.47). CONCLUSIONS: These results emphasize the importance of a good match between job demands and worker capabilities.

Effect of recall period on the reporting of occupational injuries among older workers in the Health and Retirement Study.

Studies of injury morbidity often rely on self-reported survey data. In designing these surveys, researchers must chose between a shorter recall period to minimize recall bias and a longer period to maximize the precision of rate estimates. Using data from the Health and Retirement Study, which employed a recall period of 1 year, we examined the effect of the recall period on rates of occupational injuries among older workers as well as upon rate ratios of these injuries for nine risk factors. We fit a stochastic model to the occupational injury rates as a function of time before the interview and used this model to estimate what the injury rates would have been had we used a 4-week recall period. The adjusted occupational injury rate of 5.9 injuries per 100 workers per year was 36% higher than the rate based on a 1-year recall period. Adjustment for recall period had much less effect on rate ratios, which typically varied by < 10%. Our work suggests that self-reported surveys with longer recall periods may be used to estimate occupational injury rates and also may be useful in studying the associations between occupational injuries and a variety of risk factors.

Oakwood Hospital needs assessment for community health promotion.

A survey was conducted to determine community health concerns, interests, and perceived health needs. The survey data were used in the selection of health promotion interventions. An index of Concern/Information Need/Participation Willingness (CIP) was developed as a model for planning, implementing, marketing, and evaluating programs.