Decline of the boreal willow grouse (Lagopus lagopus) has been accelerated by more frequent snow-free springs.

Climate change has influenced a range of species across the globe. Yet, to state a noted decline in the abundance of a given species as a consequence of a specific environmental change, for instance, spatially explicit long-term data are a prerequisite. This study assessed the extent to which prolonged snow-free periods in autumn and spring have contributed to the decline of the willow grouse, the only forest grouse changing into a white winter plumage. Time-series data of willow grouse numbers from summer surveys across the study area were integrated with local data on weather (snow cover), mammalian predator abundance and hunting intensity. Modelling was conducted with a hierarchical Bayesian Poisson model, acknowledging year-, area- and location-specific variability. The results show that while willow grouse numbers had decreased continuously across the study landscapes, the decrease was accelerated at the sites where, and during the years when the preceding April was the most snow-free. This indicates a mismatch between the change into a white winter plumage and the presence of snow, turning the bird into an ill-camouflaged prey. The results thus also confirm past hypotheses where local declines of the species have been attributed to prolonged snow-free periods. Across our study area, autumns and springs have become more snow-free, and the trend has been predicted to continue. Thus, in addition to conservation actions, the future of a species such as the willow grouse is also dependent on its ability to adapt to the changed environmental conditions.

Large-scale spatial synchrony in red squirrel populations driven by a bottom-up effect.

Spatial synchrony between populations emerges from endogenous and exogenous processes, such as intra- and interspecific interactions and abiotic factors. Understanding factors contributing to synchronous population dynamics help to better understand what determines abundance of a species. This study focuses on spatial and temporal dynamics in the Eurasian red squirrel (Sciurus vulgaris) using snow-track data from Finland from 29 years. We disentangled the effects of bottom-up and top-down forces as well as environmental factors on population dynamics with a spatiotemporally explicit Bayesian hierarchical approach. We found red squirrel abundance to be positively associated with both the abundance of Norway spruce (Picea abies) cones and the predators, the pine marten (Martes martes) and the northern goshawk (Accipiter gentilis), probably due to shared habitat preferences. The results suggest that red squirrel populations are synchronized over remarkably large distances, on a scale of hundreds of kilometres, and that this synchrony is mainly driven by similarly spatially autocorrelated spruce cone crop. Our research demonstrates how a bottom-up effect can drive spatial synchrony in consumer populations on a very large scale of hundreds of kilometres, and also how an explicit spatiotemporal approach can improve model performance for fluctuating populations.

Guardian or threat: does golden eagle predation risk have cascading effects on forest grouse?

Previous studies on intraguild predation have mainly focused on within-class assemblages, even though avian top predators may also influence mammalian mesopredator prey. By using nation-wide long-term data from Finland, northern Europe, we examined the impacts of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) together with red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) and pine martens (Martes martes) on forest-dwelling herbivores, black grouse (Tetrao tetrix) and hazel grouse (Tetrastes bonasia). We hypothesized that eagles may alleviate the overall predation pressure on grouse by imposing intraguild predation risk on mesopredators. The predation impact of eagle was modelled using eagle density estimates and distance to eagle nest. Wildlife triangle counts were used as predation impact proxies of mammalian mesopredators and as measures of response in grouse. Our results show that eagle density correlated negatively with black grouse abundance indices while being positively associated with the proportion of juveniles in both grouse species, irrespective of the abundance of mesopredators. Yet, foxes and martens alone had a negative effect on the abundance indices and the proportion of young in the two grouse species. This suggests that the possible cascading effects of eagles are not mediated by decreased mesopredator numbers, but instead by fear effects. Alternatively, they may be mediated by other species than fox or marten studied here. In conclusion, we found support for the hypothesis that eagles provide protection for juvenile black and hazel grouse, whereas they are a threat for adult grouse. This important information helps us to better understand the role of avian top predators in terrestrial ecosystems.

Avian top predator and the landscape of fear: responses of mammalian mesopredators to risk imposed by the golden eagle.

Top predators may induce extensive cascading effects on lower trophic levels, for example, through intraguild predation (IGP). The impacts of both mammalian and avian top predators on species of the same class have been extensively studied, but the effects of the latter upon mammalian mesopredators are not yet as well known. We examined the impact of the predation risk imposed by a large avian predator, the golden eagle (Aquila chrysaetos, L.), on its potential mammalian mesopredator prey, the red fox (Vulpes vulpes, L.), and the pine marten (Martes martes, L.). The study combined 23 years of countrywide data from nesting records of eagles and wildlife track counts of mesopredators in Finland, northern Europe. The predation risk of the golden eagle was modeled as a function of territory density, density of fledglings produced, and distance to nearest active eagle territory, with the expectation that a high predation risk would reduce the abundances of smaller sized pine martens in particular. Red foxes appeared not to suffer from eagle predation, being in fact most numerous close to eagle nests and in areas with more eagle territories. This is likely due to similar prey preferences of the two predators and the larger size of foxes enabling them to escape eagle predation risk. Somewhat contrary to our prediction, the abundance of pine martens increased from low to intermediate territory density and at close proximity to eagle nests, possibly because of similar habitat preferences of martens and eagles. We found a slightly decreasing trend of marten abundance at high territory density, which could indicate that the response in marten populations is dependent on eagle density. However, more research is needed to better establish whether mesopredators are intimidated or predated by golden eagles, and whether such effects could in turn cascade to lower trophic levels, benefitting herbivorous species.

Predator-vole interactions in Northern Europe: the role of small mustelids revised.

The cyclic population dynamics of vole and predator communities is a key phenomenon in northern ecosystems, and it appears to be influenced by climate change. Reports of collapsing rodent cycles have attributed the changes to warmer winters, which weaken the interaction between voles and their specialist subnivean predators. Using population data collected throughout Finland during 1986-2011, we analyse the spatio-temporal variation in the interactions between populations of voles and specialist, generalist and avian predators, and investigate by simulations the roles of the different predators in the vole cycle. We test the hypothesis that vole population cyclicity is dependent on predator-prey interactions during winter. Our results support the importance of the small mustelids for the vole cycle. However, weakening specialist predation during winters, or an increase in generalist predation, was not associated with the loss of cyclicity. Strengthening of delayed density dependence coincided with strengthening small mustelid influence on the summer population growth rates of voles. In conclusion, a strong impact of small mustelids during summers appears highly influential to vole population dynamics, and deteriorating winter conditions are not a viable explanation for collapsing small mammal population cycles.

Coupling in goshawk and grouse population dynamics in Finland.

Different prey species can vary in their significance to a particular predator. In the simplest case, the total available density or biomass of a guild of several prey species might be most relevant to the predator, but behavioural and ecological traits of different prey species can alter the picture. We studied the population dynamics of a predator-prey setting in Finland by fitting first-order log-linear vector autoregressive models to long-term count data from active breeding sites of the northern goshawk (Accipiter gentilis; 1986-2009), and to three of its main prey species (1983-2010): hazel grouse (Bonasa bonasia), black grouse (Tetrao tetrix) and capercaillie (T. urogallus), which belong to the same forest grouse guild and show synchronous fluctuations. Our focus was on modelling the relative significance of prey species and estimating the tightness of predator-prey coupling in order to explain the observed population dynamics, simultaneously accounting for effects of density dependence, winter severity and spatial correlation. We established nine competing candidate models, where different combinations of grouse species affect goshawk dynamics with lags of 1-3 years. Effects of goshawk on grouse were investigated using one model for each grouse species. The most parsimonious model for goshawk indicated separate density effects of hazel grouse and black grouse, and different effects with lags of 1 and 3 years. Capercaillie showed no effects on goshawk populations, while the effect of goshawk on grouse was clearly negative only in capercaillie. Winter severity had significant adverse effects on goshawk and hazel grouse populations. In combination, large-scale goshawk-grouse population dynamics are coupled, but there are no clear mutual effects for any of the individual guild members. In a broader context, our study suggests that pooling data on closely related, synchronously fluctuating prey species can result in the loss of relevant information, rather than increased model parsimony.

Vulnerability of black grouse hens to goshawk predation: result of food supply or predation facilitation?

The plant cycle hypothesis says that poor-quality food affects both herbivorous voles (Microtinae spp.) and grouse (Tetraonidae spp.) in vole decline years, leading to increased foraging effort in female grouse and thus a higher risk of predation by the goshawk Accipiter gentilis. Poor-quality food (mainly the bilberry Vaccinium myrtillus) for these herbivores is induced by seed masting failure in the previous year, when the bilberry is able to allocate resources for chemical defence (the mast depression hypothesis; MDH). The predation facilitation hypothesis (PFH) in turn states that increased searching activity of vole-eating predators during or after the decline year of voles disturbs incubating and brooding grouse females. The behaviours used by grouse to avoid these terrestrial predators make them more vulnerable to predation by goshawks. We tested the main predictions of the MDH and PFH by collecting long-term (21-year) data from black grouse Tetrao tetrix hens and cocks killed by breeding goshawks supplemented with indices of bilberry crop, vole abundance and small carnivores in the vicinity of Oulu, northern Finland. We did not find obvious support for the prediction of the MDH that there is a negative correlation of bilberry crop in year t with vole abundance and with predation index of black grouse hens in year t + 1. We did find obvious support for the prediction of the PFH that there is a positive correlation between predator abundance and predation index of grouse hens, because the stoat Mustela erminea abundance index was positively related to the predation index of black grouse hens. We suggest that changes in vulnerability of grouse hens may mainly be caused by the guild of vole-eating predators, who shift to alternative prey in the decline phase of the vole cycle, and thus chase grouse hens and chicks to the talons of goshawks and other avian predators.

Sindbis virus infection in resident birds, migratory birds, and humans, Finland.

Sindbis virus (SINV), a mosquito-borne virus that causes rash and arthritis, has been causing outbreaks in humans every seventh year in northern Europe. To gain a better understanding of SINV epidemiology in Finland, we searched for SINV antibodies in 621 resident grouse, whose population declines have coincided with human SINV outbreaks, and in 836 migratory birds. We used hemagglutination-inhibition and neutralization tests for the bird samples and enzyme immunoassays and hemagglutination-inhibition for the human samples. SINV antibodies were first found in 3 birds (red-backed shrike, robin, song thrush) during their spring migration to northern Europe. Of the grouse, 27.4% were seropositive in 2003 (1 year after a human outbreak), but only 1.4% were seropositive in 2004. Among 2,529 persons, the age-standardized seroprevalence (1999-2003) was 5.2%; seroprevalence and incidence (1995-2003) were highest in North Karelia (eastern Finland). Grouse may contribute to the epidemiology of SINV in humans.

Short- and long-term population dynamical consequences of asymmetric climate change in black grouse.

Temporal asymmetry in patterns of regional climate change may jeopardize the match between the proximate and ultimate cues of the timing of breeding. The consequences on short- and long-term population dynamics and trends as well as the underlying mechanisms are, however, often unknown. Using long-term data from Finland, we demonstrate that black grouse (Tetrao tetrix) have responded to spring warming by advancing both egg-laying and hatching. However, early summer (the time of hatching) has not advanced, and chicks have to face colder post-hatching conditions. Demonstrating that these conditions are critical to post-hatching survival, we show that chicks are increasingly suffering higher mortality because they hatch too early. Consequently, breeding success and population size has severely declined over the past four decades. Finally, we modelled the impact of this particular climate change scenario on population dynamics and show that the mismatch can further explain the observed collapse of cyclic fluctuations. Because the evolutionary response of grouse is lagging behind the novel selective pressures, seasonally asymmetric climate change is likely to constitute an important determinant of future short- and long-term changes in the dynamics of black grouse populations.

Population genetic structure of male black grouse (Tetrao tetrix L.) in fragmented vs. continuous landscapes.

We investigated the association of habitat fragmentation with genetic structure of male black grouse Tetrao tetrix. Using 14 microsatellites, we compared the genetic differentiation of males among nine localities in continuous lowland habitats in Finland to the genetic differentiation among 14 localities in fragmented habitats in the Alps (France, Switzerland and Italy). In both areas, we found significant genetic differentiation. However, the average differentiation, measured as theta, was more than three times higher in the Alps than in Finland. The greater differentiation found in the Alps is probably due to the presence of mountain ridges rising above natural habitats of the species, which form barriers to gene flow, and to a higher influence of genetic drift resulting from lower effective sizes in highly fragmented habitats. The detection of isolation by distance in the Alps suggests that gene flow among populations does occur. The genetic variability measured as gene diversity HE and allelic richness A was lower in the Alps than in Finland. This could result from the higher fragmentation and/or from the fact that populations in the Alps are isolated from the main species range and have a lower effective size than in Finland. This study suggests that habitat fragmentation can affect genetic structure of avian species with relatively high dispersal propensities.

Heterospecific attraction and food resources in migrants' breeding patch selection in northern boreal forest.

We studied experimentally how heterospecific attraction may affect habitat selection of migrant passerine birds in Finnish Lapland. We manipulated the densities of resident tit species (Parus spp.). In four study plots residents were removed before the arrival of the migrants in the first study year, and in four other plots their densities were increased by releasing caught individuals. In the second year the treatments of the areas were reversed, allowing paired comparisons within each plot. We also investigated the relative abundance of arthropods in the study plots by the sweep-net method. This allowed us to estimate the effect of food resources on the abundance of birds. The heterospecific attraction hypothesis predicts that densities of migrant species (especially habitat generalists) would be higher during increased resident density. Results supported this prediction. Densities and number of the most abundant migrant species were significantly higher when resident density was increased than when they were removed. On the species level the redwing (Turdus iliacus) showed the strongest positive response to the increased abundance of tits. Migrant bird abundances seemed not to vary in parallel with relative arthropod abundance, with the exception of the pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca) which showed a strongly positive correlation with many arthropod groups. The results of the experiment indicate that migrants can use resident tit species as a cue to a profitable breeding patch. The relationship between the abundance of the birds and arthropods suggests that annual changes in food resources during the breeding season probably do not have a very important effect on bird populations in these areas. The results stress the importance of positive interspecific interactions in structuring northern breeding bird communities.

Numerical and behavioural responses of migrant passerines to experimental manipulation of resident tits (Parus spp.): heterospecific attraction in northern breeding bird communites?

We studied experimentally interspecific competition among foliage-gleaning passerine birds by manipulating the density of resident tits. In 1988 tit density was experimentally increased on three small islands in a central Finnish lake, and decreased on three other islands by tit removal. In order to avoid the effects of between-island differences in habitat quality, the role of the islands was reversed when the experiment was repeated in the following year. Censuses and observations on foraging and feeding behaviour were conducted to assess the numerical and behavioural responses of migrant conguilders (mainly chaffinches and willow warblers) with respect to the manipulated abundance of the tits. We also measured whether variation in food consumption of tits affected the frequency with which the migrants found food by calculating average intervals between successful prey captures, time lags to prey-capture and giving-up times. Our results indicate that interspecific competition is of minor importance in structuring breeding bird assemblages and species feeding ecologies on the study islands. No consistent difference in foraging or feeding niches of chaffinches and willow warblers was found between low and high tit density conditions. Niche overlap analysis showed no avoidance by chaffinches and willow warblers of the microhabitats which tits used. Tit abundance had no significant effect on feeding success or behaviour. Experimentally increased abundance of resident birds was associated with increased abundance of breeding migrants, however. This pattern was found not only in the foliage gleaning guild but also with all passerine birds, indicating that food was not an important contributor to this pattern. We elaborate a hypothesis suggesting heterospecific attraction in northern breeding bird assemblages. Habitat generalist migrants may use the presence of residents as an indicator of safe and/or productive breeding sites in northern unpredictable circumstances.