Simulating the Commercial Implementation of Gene-Editing for Influenza A Virus Resistance in Pigs: An Economic and Genetic Analysis.

The development of swine Influenza A Virus resistance along with genetic technologies could complement current control measures to help to improve animal welfare standards and the economic efficiency of pig production. We have created a simulation model to assess the genetic and economic implications of various gene-editing methods that could be implemented in a commercial, multi-tiered swine breeding system. Our results demonstrate the length of the gene-editing program was negatively associated with genetic progress in commercial pigs and that the time required to reach fixation of resistance alleles was reduced if the efficiency of gene-editing is greater. The simulations included the resistance conferred in a digenic model, the inclusion of genetic mosaicism in progeny, and the effects of selection accuracy. In all scenarios, the level of mosaicism had a greater effect on the time required to reach resistance allele fixation and the genetic progress of the herd than gene-editing efficiency and zygote survival. The economic analysis highlights that selection accuracy will not affect the duration of gene-editing and the investment required compared to the effects of gene-editing-associated mosaicism and the swine Influenza A Virus control strategy on farms. These modelling results provide novel insights into the economic and genetic implications of targeting two genes in a commercial pig gene-editing program and the effects of selection accuracy and mosaicism.

Modeling suggests gene editing combined with vaccination could eliminate a persistent disease in livestock.

Recent breakthroughs in gene-editing technologies that can render individual animals fully resistant to infections may offer unprecedented opportunities for controlling future epidemics in farm animals. Yet, their potential for reducing disease spread is poorly understood as the necessary theoretical framework for estimating epidemiological effects arising from gene-editing applications is currently lacking. Here, we develop semistochastic modeling approaches to investigate how the adoption of gene editing may affect infectious disease prevalence in farmed animal populations and the prospects and time scale for disease elimination. We apply our models to the porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS), one of the most persistent global livestock diseases to date. Whereas extensive control efforts have shown limited success, recent production of gene-edited pigs that are fully resistant to the PRRS virus have raised expectations for eliminating this deadly disease. Our models predict that disease elimination on a national scale would be difficult to achieve if gene editing was used as the only disease control. However, from a purely epidemiological perspective, disease elimination may be achievable within 3 to 6 y, if gene editing were complemented with widespread and sufficiently effective vaccination. Besides strategic distribution of genetically resistant animals, several other key determinants underpinning the epidemiological impact of gene editing were identified.

Genetic and economic benefits of foreign sire contributions to a domestic sheep industry; including an Ireland-New Zealand case study.

BACKGROUND: Importation of foreign genetics is a widely used genetic improvement strategy. However, even if the foreign genetic merit is currently greater than the domestic genetic merit, differences in foreign and domestic trends mean that the long-term competitiveness of an importation strategy cannot be guaranteed. Gene flow models are used to quantify the impact that a specific subpopulation, such as foreign genetics, can have over time on the genetic or economic benefit of a domestic industry. METHODS: We used a deterministic recursive gene flow model to predict the commercial performance of lambs born across various subpopulations. Numerous breeding strategies were evaluated by varying market share, proportions of rams selected for mating, genetic trend, superiority of foreign genetics over domestic genetics and frequency of importation. Specifically, an Ireland-New Zealand case study was simulated to quantify the potential gain that could be made by using foreign sire contributions (New Zealand) in a domestic sheep industry (Ireland). RESULTS: Genetic and economic gains were generated from alternative breeding strategies. The 'base scenario' (i.e. representing the current industry) predicted an average genetic merit value of €2.51 for lambs born and an annualised cumulative benefit of €45 million (m) after 20 years. Maximum genetic (€9.45 for lambs born) and economic (annualised cumulative benefit of €180 m after 20 years) benefits were achieved by implementing the 'PRO-intense-market scenario' which involved shifting market share away from conservative domestic breeders and reducing the proportion of rams that were selected for mating by progressive domestic breeders from the top 40% to the top 20%, without the use of any foreign genetics. The 'PROFOR scenario', which considered the use of foreign and progressive domestic genetics, predicted an average genetic merit value of €7.37 for lambs born and an annualised cumulative benefit of €144 m, after 20 years. CONCLUSIONS: Our results demonstrate that there is opportunity for a domestic industry to increase industry benefits without the use of foreign genetics but through an attempt to shift the market share away from conservative domestic breeders towards progressive domestic breeders. However, the importation and use of progressive foreign genetics may be an effective method to trigger a change in behaviour of conservative domestic breeders towards the use of progressive genetics.

Genetic benefits of genomic selection breeding programmes considering foreign sire contributions.

BACKGROUND: In modern dairy breeding programmes, high contributions from foreign sires are nearly always present. Genotyping, and therefore genomic selection (GS), concern only a subpopulation of the breeding programme's wider dairy population. These features of a breeding programme contribute in different ways to the rate of genetic gain for the wider industry. METHODS: A deterministic recursive gene flow model across subpopulations of animals in a dairy industry was created to predict the commercial performance of replacement heifers and future artificial insemination bulls. Various breeding strategies were assessed by varying the reliability of breeding values, the genetic contributions from subpopulations, and the genetic trend and merit of the foreign subpopulation. RESULTS: A higher response in the true breeding goal measured in standard deviations (SD) of true merit (G) after 20 years of selection can be achieved when genetic contributions shift towards higher merit alternatives compared to keeping them fixed. A foreign annual genetic trend of 0.08 SD of the breeding goal, while the domestic genetic trend is 0.10 SD, results in the overall net present value of genetic gain increasing by 1.2, 2.3, and 3.4% after 20 years as the reliability of GS in the domestic population increased from 0.3 to 0.45, 0.60 and 0.75. With a foreign genetic trend of 0.10 SD, these increases are more modest; 0.9, 1.7, and 2.4%. Increasing the foreign genetic trend so that it is higher than the domestic trend erodes the benefits of increasing the reliability of domestic GS further. CONCLUSIONS: Having a foreign source of genetic material with a high rate of genetic progress contributes substantially to the benefits of domestic genetic progress while at the same time reducing the expected returns from investments to improve the accuracy of genomic prediction in the home country.