Foresight in public health: a tutorial on application and insights on challenges from the PHIRI foresight exercise.

BACKGROUND: The application of foresight to the field of public health is limited. There is growing need to anticipate uncertain future trends and to plan for them. Foresight provides tools to experts and policymakers to discuss and plan for possible futures. Hence, the aim of this study is to illustrate how the foresight six-step approach can be applied in public health, and to provide recommendations on dealing with challenges, drawn from the Population Health Information Research Infrastructure (PHIRI) foresight exercise. METHODS: In this tutorial, we describe the six-step approach as part of foresight methodology and give examples of possible challenges. Step 1 comprises the formulation of study objectives. Step 2 focuses on developing a conceptual model and applying the Demographic Economic Sociocultural Technological Ecological and Political-Institutional (DESTEP) framework to identify and prioritize driving forces for the topic of interest. In Step 3, a time horizon and spatial level are defined. Step 4 discusses scenario logics. Steps 5 and 6 discuss different types of scenarios and associated tools for analyses. Possible challenges encountered whilst applying the foresight methodology at each of the steps, were drawn from experiences during PHIRI foresight exercise. RESULTS: Challenges associated with applying the foresight six-step approach included: formulating concise objectives, developing a conceptual model, understanding driving forces and uncertainty and difficulties in building scenarios. CONCLUSIONS: Understanding concepts used in the six-step approach and how they relate to each other remained difficult. Support from foresight experts, conducting more foresight exercises, tutorials and guidelines can enhance understanding and support building capacity.

On-Site Physiotherapy in Emergency Department Patients Presenting with Nonspecific Low Back Pain: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

Background: There is a high incidence of nonspecific Low Back Pain (LBP) in patients visiting Emergency Departments (EDs), but there is a lack of knowledge regarding emergency physiotherapy for LBP. The effect of on-site physiotherapy in these patients was therefore never demonstrated. We assessed short-term outcomes, feasibility and patient satisfaction with physiotherapy in ED patients presenting with nonspecific LBP. Methods: A block-randomized, controlled, open-label trial with a follow-up of 42 days. Patients aged 18 years or older presenting to an ED with nonspecific LBP were prospectively enrolled. Both groups received the same booklet with written information on LBP management and exercises. Patients in the intervention group were given additional instructions by a certified physiotherapist. Results: We included 86 patients in the primary analysis. The median age was 40, and 40.7% were female. At day 7, the median Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) was 2 points lower in the intervention group compared to the control group, which was not statistically significant. There was no between-group difference in pain at day 7. Patients who received physiotherapy felt significantly more confident with the exercises they were taught (p = 0.004, effect size = 0.3 [95% CI 0.1 to 0.5]). Conclusions: On-site physiotherapy in ED patients presenting with nonspecific low back pain is associated with higher patient satisfaction, compared to standard of care. The effect of physiotherapy was small, with only minimal improvement in disability, but without a reduction in pain. Despite the very small effect size, physiotherapeutic interventions should be investigated in larger cohorts with an extended intervention including patient education, exercises, and other physiotherapeutic modalities.

Screening for elder mistreatment in a Swiss emergency department: a prospective cohort study.

AIM OF THE STUDY: The mistreatment of older adults is a global and complex problem with varying prevalence. As there are no data on the prevalence of elder mistreatment in European emergency department populations, we aimed to translate and culturally adapt the Emergency Department Senior Abuse Identification (ED Senior AID) tool for German use, assess the positive screen rate for elder mistreatment with the German version, and compare characteristics of patients who screened positive and negative. METHODS: To assess the prevalence of elder mistreatment, we created a German version of the ED Senior AID tool. This tool identifies intentional or negligent actions by a caregiver or trusted person that cause harm or risk to an older adult. Then, the German ED Senior AID tool was applied to all consecutively presenting patients aged ≥65 years at our academic emergency department in the Northwest of Switzerland from 25 April to 30 May 2022. Usability was defined as the percentage of patients with completed assessments using the German ED Senior AID tool. RESULTS: We included 1010 patients aged ≥65 years, of whom 29 (2.9%) screened positive with the ED Senior AID tool. The patients who screened positive were older, more severely cognitively impaired, hospitalised more frequently, and presented with higher frailty scores than those who screened negative. Mortality up to 100 days after presentation was comparable in all patients (p = 0.861), regardless of their screening result. The tool showed good usability, with 73% of assessments completed. CONCLUSION: This is the first prospective investigation on the prevalence of elder mistreatment in a European emergency department setting. Overall, 2.9% of patients screened positive using a validated screening tool translated into German. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This study was registered with the National Institute of Health on ClinicalTrials.gov with the registration number NCT05400707.

Prognostic value of cognitive impairment, assessed by the Clock Drawing Test, in emergency department patients presenting with non-specific complaints.

BACKGROUND: Cognitive impairment (CI) is common among older patients presenting to the emergency department (ED). The failure to recognize CI at ED presentation constitutes a high risk of additional morbidity, mortality, and functional decline. The Clock Drawing Test (CDT) is a well-established cognitive screening test. AIM: In patients presenting to the ED with non-specific complaints (NSCs), we aimed to investigate the usability of the CDT and its prognostic value regarding length of hospital stay (LOS) and mortality. METHOD: Secondary analysis of the Basel Non-specific Complaints (BANC) trial, a prospective delayed type cross-sectional study with a 30-day follow-up. In three EDs, patients presenting with NSCs were enrolled. The CDT was administered at enrollment. RESULTS: In the 1,278 patients enrolled, median age was 81 [74, 87] years and 782 were female (61.19%). A valid CDT was obtained in 737 (57.7%) patients. In patients without a valid CDT median LOS was higher (29 [9, 49] days vs. 22 [9, 45] days), and 30-day mortality was significantly higher than in patients with a valid CDT (n = 45 (8.32%) vs. n = 39 (5.29%)). Of all valid CDTs, 154 clocks (20.9%) were classified as normal, 55 (7.5%) as mildly deficient, 297 (40.3%) as moderately deficient, and 231 (31.3%) as severely deficient. Mortality and LOS increased along with the CDT deficits (p = 0.012 for 30-day mortality; p < 0.001 for LOS). CONCLUSION: The early identification of patients with CI may lead to improved patient management and resource allocation. The CDT could be used as a risk stratification tool for older ED patients presenting with NSCs, as it is a predictor for 30-day mortality and LOS.

Diagnostic and prognostic value of cardiac troponins in emergency department patients presenting after a fall: A prospective, multicenter study.

BACKGROUND: Emergency department (ED) presentations after a ground-level fall (GLF) are common. Falls were suggested to be another possible presenting feature of a myocardial infarction (MI), as unrecognized MIs are common in older adults. Elevated high-sensitivity cardiac troponin (hs-cTn) concentrations could help determine the etiology of a GLF in ED. We investigated the prevalence of both MI and elevated high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) and I (hs-cTnI), as well as the diagnostic accuracy of hs-cTnT and hs-cTnI regarding MI, and their prognostic value in older ED patients presenting after a GLF. METHODS: This was a prospective, international, multicenter, cohort study with a follow-up of up to 1 year. Patients aged 65 years or older presenting to the ED after a GLF were prospectively enrolled. Two outcome assessors independently reviewed all discharge records to ascertain final gold standard diagnoses. Hs-cTnT and hs-cTnI levels were determined from thawed samples for every patient. RESULTS: In total, 558 patients were included. Median (IQR) age was 83 (77-89) years, and 67.7% were female. Elevated hs-cTnT levels were found in 384 (68.8%) patients, and elevated hs-cTnI levels in 86 (15.4%) patients. Three patients (0.5%) were ascertained the gold standard diagnosis MI. Within 30 days, 18 (3.2%) patients had died. Nonsurvivors had higher hs-cTnT and hs-cTnI levels compared with survivors (hs-cTnT 40 [23-85] ng/L in nonsurvivors and 20 [13-33] ng/L in survivors; hs-cTnI 25 [14-54] ng/L in nonsurvivors and 8 [4-16] ng/L in survivors; p < 0.001 for both). CONCLUSIONS: A majority of patients (n = 364, 68.8%) presenting to the ED after a fall had elevated hs-cTnT levels and 86 (15.4%) elevated hs-cTnI levels. However, the incidence of MI in these patients was low (n = 3, 0.5%). Our data do not support the opinion that falls may be a common presenting feature of MI. We discourage routine troponin testing in this population. However, hs-cTnT and hs-cTnI were both found to have prognostic properties for mortality prediction up to 1 year.

Predictive value and interrater reliability of mental status and mobility assessment in the emergency department.

AIM: To investigate the predictive value of both mental status, assessed with the AVPUC (Alert, responds to Voice, responds to Pain, Unresponsive, and new Confusion) scale, and mobility assessments, and their interrater reliability (IRR) between triage clinicians and a research team. METHOD: Prospective study of consecutive patients who presented to an ED. Mental status and mobility were assessed by triage clinicians and by a dedicated research team. RESULTS: 4,191 patients were included. After adjustment for age and sex, patients with altered mental status have an odds ratio of 6.55 [4.09-10.24] to be admitted in the ICU and an odds ratio of 21.16 [12.06-37.01] to die within 30 days; patients with impaired mobility have an odds ratio of 7.08 [4.60-11.12] to be admitted in the ICU and an odds ratio of 12.87 [5.93-32.30] to die within 30 days. The kappa coefficient between triage clinicians and the research team for mental status assessment was 0.75, and 0.80 for mobility. CONCLUSION: Assessment of mental status by the AVPUC scale, and mobility by a simple dichotomous scale are suitable for ED triage. Both altered mental status and impaired mobility are associated with adverse outcomes. Mental status and mobility assessment have good interrater reliability.

Risk of death due to COVID-19 among current and former smokers in the Netherlands: a population-based quasi-cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Research on smoking as a risk factor for death due to COVID-19 remains inconclusive, with different studies demonstrating either an increased or decreased risk of COVID-19 death among smokers. To investigate this controversy, this study uses data from the Netherlands to assess the relationship between smoking and death due to COVID-19. METHODS: In this population-based quasi-cohort study, we linked pseudonymized individual data on smoking status from the 2016 and 2020 'Health Monitor Adults and Elderly' in the Netherlands (n = 914 494) to data from the cause-of-death registry (n = 2962). Death due to COVID-19 in 2020 or 2021 was taken as the main outcome. Poisson regression modelling was used to calculate relative risks (RRs) and 95% CIs of death due to COVID-19 for current and former smokers compared with never smokers while adjusting for relevant confounders (age, sex, educational level, body mass index and perceived health). RESULTS: Former smokers had a higher risk of death due to COVID-19 compared with never smokers across unadjusted (RR, 2.22; 95% CI, 2.04-2.42), age-sex-adjusted (RR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.22-1.55) and fully adjusted (RR, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.16-1.45) models. Current smokers had a slightly higher risk of death due to COVID-19 compared with never smokers after adjusting for age and sex (RR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.00-1.48) and after full adjustment (RR, 1.08; 95% CI, 0.90-1.29), although the results were statistically non-significant. CONCLUSIONS: People with a history of smoking appear to have a higher risk of death due to COVID-19. Further research is needed to investigate which underlying mechanisms may explain this.

Societal costs of sepsis in the Netherlands.

BACKGROUND: Sepsis is a life-threatening syndrome characterized by acute loss of organ function due to infection. Sepsis survivors are at risk for long-term comorbidities, have a reduced Quality of Life (QoL), and are prone to increased long-term mortality. The societal impact of sepsis includes its disease burden and indirect economic costs. However, these societal costs of sepsis are not fully understood. This study assessed sepsis's disease-related and indirect economic costs in the Netherlands. METHODS: Sepsis prevalence, incidence, sepsis-related mortality, hospitalizations, life expectancy, QoL population norms, QoL reduction after sepsis, and healthcare use post-sepsis were obtained from previous literature and Statistics Netherlands. We used these data to estimate annual Quality-adjusted Life Years (QALYs), productivity loss, and increase in healthcare use post-sepsis. A sensitivity analysis was performed to analyze the burden and indirect economic costs of sepsis under alternative assumptions, resulting in a baseline, low, and high estimated burden. The results are presented as a baseline (low-high burden) estimate. RESULTS: The annual disease burden of sepsis is approximately 57,304 (24,398-96,244; low-high burden) QALYs. Of this, mortality accounts for 26,898 (23,166-31,577) QALYs, QoL decrease post-sepsis accounts for 30,406 (1232-64,667) QALYs. The indirect economic burden, attributed to lost productivity and increased healthcare expenditure, is estimated at €416.1 (147.1-610.7) million utilizing the friction cost approach and €3.1 (0.4-5.7) billion using the human capital method. Cumulatively, the combined disease and indirect economic burdens range from €3.8 billion (friction method) to €6.5 billion (human capital method) annually within the Netherlands. CONCLUSIONS: Sepsis and its complications pose a substantial disease and indirect economic burden to the Netherlands, with an indirect economic burden due to production loss that is potentially larger than the burden due to coronary heart disease or stroke. Our results emphasize the need for future studies to prevent sepsis, saving downstream costs and decreasing the economic burden.

Clinical Frailty Scale at presentation to the emergency department: interrater reliability and use of algorithm-assisted assessment.

PURPOSE: The Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) allows health care providers to quickly stratify older patients, to support clinical decision-making. However, few studies have evaluated the CFS interrater reliability (IRR) in Emergency Departments (EDs), and the freely available smartphone application for CFS assessment was never tested for reliability. This study aimed to evaluate the interrater reliability of the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) ratings between experienced and unexperienced staff (ED clinicians and a study team (ST) of medical students supported by a smartphone application to assess the CFS), and to determine the feasibility of CFS assignment in patients aged 65 or older at triage. METHODS: Cross-sectional study using consecutive sampling of ED patients aged 65 or older. We compared assessments by ED clinicians (Triage Clinicians (TC) and geriatric ED trained nurses (geriED-TN)) and a study team (ST) of medical students using a smartphone application for CFS scoring. The study is registered on Clinicaltrials.gov (NCT05400707). RESULTS: We included 1349 patients aged 65 and older. Quadratic-weighted kappa values for ordinal CFS levels showed a good IRR between TC and ST (Ï° = 0.73, 95% CI 0.69-0.76), similarly to that between TC and geriED-TN (Ï° = 0.75, 95% CI 0.66-0.82) and between the ST and geriED-TN (Ï° = 0.74, 95% CI 0.63-0.81). A CFS rating was assigned to 972 (70.2%) patients at triage. CONCLUSION: We found good IRR in the assessment of frailty with the CFS in different ED providers and a team using a smartphone application to support rating. A CFS assessment occurred in more than two-thirds (70.2%) of patients at triage.

Are older people worse off in 2040 regarding health and resources to deal with it? - Future developments in complex health problems and in the availability of resources to manage health problems in the Netherlands.

Introduction: Developing sustainable health policy requires an understanding of the future demand for health and social care. We explored the characteristics of the 65+ population in the Netherlands in 2020 and 2040, focusing on two factors that determine care needs: (1) the occurrence of complex health problems and (2) the availability of resources to manage health and care (e.g., health literacy, social support). Methods: Estimations of the occurrence of complex health problems and the availability of resources for 2020 were based on registry data and patient-reported data. Estimations for 2040 were based on (a) expected demographic developments, and (b) expert opinions using a two-stage Delphi study with 26 experts from policy making, practice and research in the field of health and social care. Results: The proportion of people aged 65+ with complex health problems and limited resources is expected to increase from 10% in 2020 to 12% in 2040 based on demographic developments, and to 22% in 2040 based on expert opinions. There was high consensus (>80%) that the proportion with complex health problems would be greater in 2040, and lower consensus (50%) on an increase of the proportion of those with limited resources. Developments that are expected to drive the future changes refer to changes in multimorbidity and in psychosocial status (e.g., more loneliness). Conclusion: The expected increased proportion of people aged 65+ with complex health problems and limited resources together with the expected health and social care workforce shortages represent large challenges for public health and social care policy.

Active Surveillance for Prostate Cancer: Past, Current, and Future Trends.

In response to the rising incidence of indolent, low-risk prostate cancer (PCa) due to increased prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening in the 1990s, active surveillance (AS) emerged as a treatment modality to combat overtreatment by delaying or avoiding unnecessary definitive treatment and its associated morbidity. AS consists of regular monitoring of PSA levels, digital rectal exams, medical imaging, and prostate biopsies, so that definitive treatment is only offered when deemed necessary. This paper provides a narrative review of the evolution of AS since its inception and an overview of its current landscape and challenges. Although AS was initially only performed in a study setting, numerous studies have provided evidence for the safety and efficacy of AS which has led guidelines to recommend it as a treatment option for patients with low-risk PCa. For intermediate-risk disease, AS appears to be a viable option for those with favourable clinical characteristics. Over the years, the inclusion criteria, follow-up schedule and triggers for definitive treatment have evolved based on the results of various large AS cohorts. Given the burdensome nature of repeat biopsies, risk-based dynamic monitoring may further reduce overtreatment by avoiding repeat biopsies in selected patients.

Predictive Value of Cribriform and Intraductal Carcinoma for the Nomogram-based Selection of Prostate Cancer Patients for Pelvic Lymph Node Dissection.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the predictive value of biopsy-identified cribriform carcinoma and/or intraductal carcinoma (CR/IDC) within the Briganti and MSKCC nomograms predicting lymph node metastasis (LNM) in patients with primary prostate cancer (PCa). METHODS: We retrospectively included 393 PCa patients who underwent radical prostatectomy with extended pelvic lymph node dissection at 3 tertiary referral centers. We externally validated 2 prediction tools: the Briganti 2012 nomogram and the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) nomogram. Both nomograms were augmented with CR/IDC. The original model was compared with the CR/IDC-updated model using the likelihood ratio test. The performance of the prediction tools was assessed using calibration, discrimination, and clinical utility. RESULTS: Overall, 109 (28%) men were diagnosed with LNM. Calibration plots of the Briganti and MSKCC nomograms demonstrated an underestimation of the LNM risk across clinically relevant thresholds (≤15%). The addition of CR/IDC to the Briganti nomogram increased the fit of the data (χ2(1) = 4.30, P = .04), but did not improve the area under the curve (AUC) (0.69, 95% CI 0.63-0.75 vs 0.69, 95% CI 0.64-0.75). Incorporation of CR/IDC in the MSKCC nomogram resulted in an increased fit on the data (χ2(1) = 10.04, P <.01), but did not increase the AUC (0.66, 95% CI 0.60-0.72 vs 0.68, 95% CI 0.62-0.74). The addition of CR/IDC to the Briganti and MSKCC nomograms did not improve the clinical risk prediction. CONCLUSION: Incorporation of CR/IDC into the 2 clinically most used pre-radical prostatectomy nomograms does not improve LNM prediction in a multinational, contemporary PCa cohort.

Exploring Health Trends Prior to State Pension Age for The Netherlands up to 2040.

BACKGROUND: In many Western countries, the state pension age is being raised to stimulate the extension of working lives. It is not yet well understood whether the health of older adults supports this increase. In this study, future health of Dutch adults aged 60 to 68 (i.e., the expected state pension age) is explored up to 2040. METHODS: Data are from the Dutch Health Interview Survey 1990-2017 (N ≈ 10,000 yearly) and the Dutch Public Health Monitor 2016 (N = 205,151). Health is operationalized using combined scores of self-reported health and limitations in mobility, hearing or seeing. Categories are: good, moderate and poor health. Based on historical health trends, two scenarios are explored: a stable health trend (neither improving nor declining) and an improving health trend. RESULTS: In 2040, the health distribution among men aged 60-68 is estimated to be 63-71% in good, 17-28% in moderate and 9-12% in poor health. Among women, this is estimated to be 64-69%, 17-24% and 12-14%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This study's explorations suggest that a substantial share of people will be in moderate or poor health and, thus, may have difficulty continuing working. Policy aiming at sustainable employability will, therefore, remain important, even in the case of the most favorable scenario.

Improving the prediction of biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy with the addition of detailed pathology of the positive surgical margin and cribriform growth.

The risk on biochemical recurrence (BCR) after radical prostatectomy (RP) is usually estimated using PSA and pathological stage and grading including the presence of positive surgical margins (PSM). Objective was to investigate whether the presence of cribriform growth in the primary tumor, Grade Group (GG) at the PSM, and length of the PSM have added value in the prognostication. We analyzed data of 835 patients initially treated with RP between 2000 and 2017. Cox regression models were developed to compare the baseline model (PSA, pT-stage, pN-stage, GG at RP, and presence of PSM) with an extended model (adding the presence of cribriform growth, length and GG at the PSM) using the likelihood ratio test. Discrimination was assessed at internal validation by the time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) at 3- and 5-year. A total of 224 men experienced BCR. Median follow-up for men without BCR was 50.4 months (interquartile range, IQR 11.9-95.5). The extended model had a significant better fit, χ2(4) = 31.0, p < 0.001 than the baseline model. The AUC of the 3- and 5-year extended model was 0.85 (95% CI 0.81-0.88) compared to 0.83 (95% CI 0.79-0.87) for the baseline model. Importantly, the presence of cribriform growth in the primary tumor, and GG ≥ 2 at PSM were associated with a higher risk on BCR. In conclusion, the addition of pathological variables improved the prediction of the risk on BCR after RP slightly. However, the clinical implications of this model are important.

External Validation of Two Nomograms Developed for 68Ga-PSMA-11 Applied to the Prostate-specific Membrane Antigen Tracer 18F-DCFPyl: Is Prediction of the Optimal Timing of Salvage Therapy Feasible?

Two nomograms have been developed to predict the outcome of positron emission tomography (PET)/computed tomography (CT) imaging with68Ga-labeled ligands for prostate-specific membrane antigen (68Ga-PSMA) for patients with rising prostate-specific antigen after radical prostatectomy (RP). These nomograms quantify the ability of PSMA PET/CT to detect prostate cancer recurrences, and therefore provide critical information in determining the optimal timing for PSMA PET/CT in guiding salvage therapies. We validated the ability of these nomograms to accurately predict PET/CT outcome using another ligand tracer, 18F-DCFPyL. The external validation cohort consisted of 157 men from the Prostate Cancer Network Netherlands who underwent 18F-DCFPyL PET/CT to guide salvage therapies after RP. The nomogram of Rauscher et al (predicting a positive scan) showed accurate prediction of 50-80% (discrimination 0.68, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.59-0.76). The nomogram of Luiting et al (predicting recurrence outside the prostatic fossa) showed accurate prediction for predicted probability values between 15% and 65%, with a small degree of overestimation for predicted probability values between 30% and 50% (discrimination 0.74, 95% CI 0.28-1.24). According to calibration curves, discrimination results, and decision curve analysis, we conclude that clinicians can use these 68Ga-PSMA-based nomograms to predict 18F-DCFPyL PET/CT outcome. These nomograms improve shared decision-making in determining the optimal time to initiate PSMA PET/CT-guided salvage therapies. PATIENT SUMMARY: Prediction tools developed for prostate scans (positron emission tomography, PET) using one type of radioactive tracer (chemicals labeled with gallium-68) are also accurate in predicting scan findings with another tracer (a chemical labeled with fluorine-18). Our study confirms that these tools can be used to guide decisions on the timing of treatments for prostate cancer recurrence.

Prostate Specific Membrane Antigen Positron Emission Tomography/Computerized Tomography in the Evaluation of Initial Response in Candidates Who Underwent Salvage Radiation Therapy after Radical Prostatectomy for Prostate Cancer.

PURPOSE: We assessed predictors of short-term oncologic outcomes of patients who underwent salvage radiation therapy for biochemical recurrence after robot-assisted laparoscopic radical prostatectomy without evidence of metastases on prostate specific membrane antigen positron emission tomography/computerized tomography. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed 194 patients with biochemical recurrence after robot-assisted laparoscopic radical prostatectomy who underwent prostate specific membrane antigen positron emission tomography/computerized tomography prior to salvage radiation therapy. Patients with lymph node or distant metastases on restaging imaging or at the time of extended pelvic lymph node dissection during robot-assisted laparoscopic radical prostatectomy were excluded, as were patients who received androgen deprivation therapy during or prior to salvage radiation therapy. A multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to assess predictors of treatment response, defined as prostate specific antigen value ≤0.1 ng/ml after salvage radiation therapy. RESULTS: Overall treatment response after salvage radiation therapy was 75% (146/194 patients). On multivariable analysis, prostate specific antigen value at initiation of salvage radiation therapy (OR 0.42, 95% CI 0.27-0.62, p <0.001), pathological T stage (pT3a vs pT2 OR 0.28, 95% CI 0.11-0.69, p=0.006; pT3b vs pT2 OR 0.26, 95% CI 0.09-0.71, p=0.009) and local recurrent disease on imaging (OR 5.53, 95% CI 1.96-18.52, p=0.003) were predictors of treatment response. CONCLUSIONS: Salvage radiation therapy in patients without evidence of metastases on prostate specific membrane antigen positron emission tomography/computerized tomography showed a good overall treatment response of 75%. Higher treatment response rates were observed in patients with lower prostate specific antigen values at initiation of salvage radiation therapy, those with local recurrent disease on imaging and those with lower pathological T stage (pT2 vs pT3a/b).

Dutch DALYs, current and future burden of disease in the Netherlands.

BACKGROUND: The Disability Adjusted Life Year (DALY) is a measure to prioritize in the public health field. In the Netherlands, the DALY estimates are calculated since 1997 and are included in the Public Health Status and Foresight studies which is an input for public health priority setting and policy making. Over these 20 years, methodological advancements have been made, including accounting for multimorbidity and performing projections for DALYs into the future. Most important methodological choices and improvements are described and results are presented. METHODS: The DALY is composed of the two components years of life lost (YLL) due to premature mortality and years lost due to disability (YLD). Both the YLL and the YLD are distinguished by sex, age and health condition, allowing aggregation to the ICD-10 chapters. The YLD is corrected for multimorbidity, assuming independent occurrence of health conditions and a multiplicative method for the calculation of combined disability weights. Future DALYs are calculated based on projections for causes of death, and prevalence and incidence. RESULTS: The results for 2015 show that cancer is the ICD-10 chapter with the highest disease burden, followed by cardiovascular diseases and mental disorders. For the individual health conditions, coronary heart disease had the highest disease burden in 2015. In 2040, we see a strong increase in disease burden of dementia and arthrosis. For dementia this is due to a threefold increase in dementia as a cause of death, while for arthrosis this is mainly due to the increase in prevalence. CONCLUSIONS: To calculate the DALY requires a substantial amount of data, methodological choices, interpretation and presentation of results, and the personnel capacity to carry out all these tasks. However, doing a National Burden of Disease study, and especially doing that for more than 20 years, proved to have an enormous additional value in population health information and thus supports better public health policies.