Sustained year-round oceanographic measurements from Rothera Research Station, Antarctica, 1997-2017.

Oceanographic changes adjacent to Antarctica have global climatic and ecological impacts. However, this is the most challenging place in the world to obtain marine data due to its remoteness and inhospitable nature, especially in winter. Here, we present more than 2000 Conductivity-Temperature-Depth (CTD) profiles and associated water sample data collected with (almost uniquely) full year-round coverage from the British Antarctic Survey Rothera Research Station at the west Antarctic Peninsula. Sampling is conducted from a small boat or a sled, depending on the sea ice conditions. When conditions allow, sampling is twice weekly in summer and weekly in winter, with profiling to nominally 500 m and with discrete water samples taken at 15 m water depth. Daily observations are made of the sea ice conditions in the area. This paper presents the first 20 years of data collection, 1997-2017. This time series represents a unique and valuable resource for investigations of the high-latitude ocean's role in climate change, ocean/ice interactions, and marine biogeochemistry and carbon drawdown.

Predicting Transmission Suitability of Mosquito-Borne Diseases under Climate Change to Underpin Decision Making.

The risk of the mosquito-borne diseases malaria, dengue fever and Zika virus is expected to shift both temporally and spatially under climate change. As climate change projections continue to improve, our ability to predict these shifts is also enhanced. This paper predicts transmission suitability for these mosquito-borne diseases, which are three of the most significant, using the most up-to-date climate change projections. Using a mechanistic methodology, areas that are newly suitable and those where people are most at risk of transmission under the best- and worst-case climate change scenarios have been identified. The results show that although transmission suitability is expected to decrease overall for malaria, some areas will become newly suitable, putting naïve populations at risk. In contrast, transmission suitability for dengue fever and Zika virus is expected to increase both in duration and geographical extent. Although transmission suitability is expected to increase in temperate zones for a few months of the year, suitability remains focused in the tropics. The highest transmission suitability in tropical regions is likely to exacerbate the intense existing vulnerability of these populations, especially children, to the multiple consequences of climate change, and their severe lack of resources and agency to cope with these impacts and pressures. As these changes in transmission suitability are amplified under the worst-case climate change scenario, this paper makes the case in support of enhanced and more urgent efforts to mitigate climate change than has been achieved to date. By presenting consistent data on the climate-driven spread of multiple mosquito-borne diseases, our work provides more holistic information to underpin prevention and control planning and decision making at national and regional levels.

Biogeochemical consequences of a changing Arctic shelf seafloor ecosystem.

Unprecedented and dramatic transformations are occurring in the Arctic in response to climate change, but academic, public, and political discourse has disproportionately focussed on the most visible and direct aspects of change, including sea ice melt, permafrost thaw, the fate of charismatic megafauna, and the expansion of fisheries. Such narratives disregard the importance of less visible and indirect processes and, in particular, miss the substantive contribution of the shelf seafloor in regulating nutrients and sequestering carbon. Here, we summarise the biogeochemical functioning of the Arctic shelf seafloor before considering how climate change and regional adjustments to human activities may alter its biogeochemical and ecological dynamics, including ecosystem function, carbon burial, or nutrient recycling. We highlight the importance of the Arctic benthic system in mitigating climatic and anthropogenic change and, with a focus on the Barents Sea, offer some observations and our perspectives on future management and policy.

Nutrient pathways and their susceptibility to past and future change in the Eurasian Arctic Ocean.

Climate change is altering nutrient cycling within the Arctic Ocean, having knock-on effects to Arctic ecosystems. Primary production in the Arctic is principally nitrogen-limited, particularly in the western Pacific-dominated regions where denitrification exacerbates nitrogen loss. The nutrient status of the eastern Eurasian Arctic remains under debate. In the Barents Sea, primary production has increased by 88% since 1998. To support this rapid increase in productivity, either the standing stock of nutrients has been depleted, or the external nutrient supply has increased. Atlantic water inflow, enhanced mixing, benthic nitrogen cycling, and land-ocean interaction have the potential to alter the nutrient supply through addition, dilution or removal. Here we use new datasets from the Changing Arctic Ocean program alongside historical datasets to assess how nitrate and phosphate concentrations may be changing in response to these processes. We highlight how nutrient dynamics may continue to change, why this is important for regional and international policy-making and suggest relevant research priorities for the future.

Benthic-pelagic coupling in the Barents Sea: an integrated data-model framework.

The Barents Sea is experiencing long-term climate-driven changes, e.g. modification in oceanographic conditions and extensive sea ice loss, which can lead to large, yet unquantified disruptions to ecosystem functioning. This key region hosts a large fraction of Arctic primary productivity. However, processes governing benthic and pelagic coupling are not mechanistically understood, limiting our ability to predict the impacts of future perturbations. We combine field observations with a reaction-transport model approach to quantify organic matter (OM) processing and disentangle its drivers. Sedimentary OM reactivity patterns show no gradients relative to sea ice extent, being mostly driven by seafloor spatial heterogeneity. Burial of high reactivity, marine-derived OM is evident at sites influenced by Atlantic Water (AW), whereas low reactivity material is linked to terrestrial inputs on the central shelf. Degradation rates are mainly driven by aerobic respiration (40-75%), being greater at sites where highly reactive material is buried. Similarly, ammonium and phosphate fluxes are greater at those sites. The present-day AW-dominated shelf might represent the future scenario for the entire Barents Sea. Our results represent a baseline systematic understanding of seafloor geochemistry, allowing us to anticipate changes that could be imposed on the pan-Arctic in the future if climate-driven perturbations persist. This article is part of the theme issue 'The changing Arctic Ocean: consequences for biological communities, biogeochemical processes and ecosystem functioning'.

Nitrate supply and uptake in the Atlantic Arctic sea ice zone: seasonal cycle, mechanisms and drivers.

Nutrient supply to the surface ocean is a key factor regulating primary production in the Arctic Ocean under current conditions and with ongoing warming and sea ice losses. Here we present seasonal nitrate concentration and hydrographic data from two oceanographic moorings on the northern Barents shelf between autumn 2017 and summer 2018. The eastern mooring was sea ice-covered to varying degrees during autumn, winter and spring, and was characterized by more Arctic-like oceanographic conditions, while the western mooring was ice-free year-round and showed a greater influence of Atlantic water masses. The seasonal cycle in nitrate dynamics was similar under ice-influenced and ice-free conditions, with biological nitrate uptake beginning near-synchronously in early May, but important differences between the moorings were observed. Nitrate supply to the surface ocean preceding and during the period of rapid drawdown was greater at the ice-free more Atlantic-like western mooring, and nitrate drawdown occurred more slowly over a longer period of time. This suggests that with ongoing sea ice losses and Atlantification, the expected shift from more Arctic-like ice-influenced conditions to more Atlantic-like ice-free conditions is likely to increase nutrient availability and the duration of seasonal drawdown in this Arctic shelf region. The extent to which this increased nutrient availability and longer drawdown periods will lead to increases in total nitrate uptake, and support the projected increases in primary production, will depend on changes in upper ocean stratification and their effect on light availability to phytoplankton as changes in climate and the physical environment proceed. This article is part of the theme issue 'The changing Arctic Ocean: consequences for biological communities, biogeochemical processes and ecosystem functioning'.

Transformation of organic matter in a Barents Sea sediment profile: coupled geochemical and microbiological processes.

Process-based, mechanistic investigations of organic matter transformation and diagenesis directly beneath the sediment-water interface (SWI) in Arctic continental shelves are vital as these regions are at greatest risk of future change. This is in part due to disruptions in benthic-pelagic coupling associated with ocean current change and sea ice retreat. Here, we focus on a high-resolution, multi-disciplinary set of measurements that illustrate how microbial processes involved in the degradation of organic matter are directly coupled with inorganic and organic geochemical sediment properties (measured and modelled) as well as the extent/depth of bioturbation. We find direct links between aerobic processes, reactive organic carbon and highest abundances of bacteria and archaea in the uppermost layer (0-4.5 cm depth) followed by dominance of microbes involved in nitrate/nitrite and iron/manganese reduction across the oxic-anoxic redox boundary (approx. 4.5-10.5 cm depth). Sulfate reducers dominate in the deeper (approx. 10.5-33 cm) anoxic sediments which is consistent with the modelled reactive transport framework. Importantly, organic matter reactivity as tracked by organic geochemical parameters (n-alkanes, n-alkanoic acids, n-alkanols and sterols) changes most dramatically at and directly below the SWI together with sedimentology and biological activity but remained relatively unchanged across deeper changes in sedimentology. This article is part of the theme issue 'The changing Arctic Ocean: consequences for biological communities, biogeochemical processes and ecosystem functioning'.

Macronutrient and carbon supply, uptake and cycling across the Antarctic Peninsula shelf during summer.

The West Antarctic Peninsula shelf is a region of high seasonal primary production which supports a large and productive food web, where macronutrients and inorganic carbon are sourced primarily from intrusions of warm saline Circumpolar Deep Water. We examined the cross-shelf modification of this water mass during mid-summer 2015 to understand the supply of nutrients and carbon to the productive surface ocean, and their subsequent uptake and cycling. We show that nitrate, phosphate, silicic acid and inorganic carbon are progressively enriched in subsurface waters across the shelf, contrary to cross-shelf reductions in heat, salinity and density. We use nutrient stoichiometric and isotopic approaches to invoke remineralization of organic matter, including nitrification below the euphotic surface layer, and dissolution of biogenic silica in deeper waters and potentially shelf sediment porewaters, as the primary drivers of cross-shelf enrichments. Regenerated nitrate and phosphate account for a significant proportion of the total pools of these nutrients in the upper ocean, with implications for the seasonal carbon sink. Understanding nutrient and carbon dynamics in this region now will inform predictions of future biogeochemical changes in the context of substantial variability and ongoing changes in the physical environment.This article is part of the theme issue 'The marine system of the West Antarctic Peninsula: status and strategy for progress in a region of rapid change'.

Impact of sea-ice melt on dimethyl sulfide (sulfoniopropionate) inventories in surface waters of Marguerite Bay, West Antarctic Peninsula.

The Southern Ocean is a hotspot of the climate-relevant organic sulfur compound dimethyl sulfide (DMS). Spatial and temporal variability in DMS concentration is higher than in any other oceanic region, especially in the marginal ice zone. During a one-week expedition across the continental shelf of the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP), from the shelf break into Marguerite Bay, in January 2015, spatial heterogeneity of DMS and its precursor dimethyl sulfoniopropionate (DMSP) was studied and linked with environmental conditions, including sea-ice melt events. Concentrations of sulfur compounds, particulate organic carbon (POC) and chlorophyll a in the surface waters varied by a factor of 5-6 over the entire transect. DMS and DMSP concentrations were an order of magnitude higher than currently inferred in climatologies for the WAP region. Particulate DMSP concentrations were correlated most strongly with POC and the abundance of haptophyte algae within the phytoplankton community, which, in turn, was linked with sea-ice melt. The strong sea-ice signal in the distribution of DMS(P) implies that DMS(P) production is likely to decrease with ongoing reductions in sea-ice cover along the WAP. This has implications for feedback processes on the region's climate system.This article is part of the theme issue 'The marine system of the West Antarctic Peninsula: status and strategy for progress in a region of rapid change'.