The challenges of selective fertility and carryover effects in within-sibship analyses: the effect of assisted reproductive technology on perinatal mortality as an example.

BACKGROUND: Within-sibship analyses show lower perinatal mortality after assisted reproductive technology (ART) compared with natural conception (NC), a finding that appears biologically unlikely. We investigated whether this may be attributed to bias from selective fertility and carryover effects. METHODS: Using data from national registries in Denmark (1994-2014), Finland (1990-2014) and Norway and Sweden (1988-2015), we studied 5 722 826 singleton pregnancies, including 119 900 ART-conceived and 37 590 exposure-discordant sibships. Perinatal mortality at the population level and within sibships was compared using multilevel logistic regression with random and fixed intercepts, respectively. We estimated selective fertility as the proportion of primiparous women with and without perinatal loss who had a second delivery, and carryover effects through bidirectional and crosswise associations. RESULTS: Population analysis showed higher perinatal mortality among ART conception compared with NC (odds ratio 1.21, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.30), whereas within-sibship analysis showed the opposite (OR 0.36, 95% CI 0.31 to 0.43). Primiparous women with perinatal loss were more likely to give birth again (selective fertility) and to use ART in this subsequent pregnancy (carryover effects), resulting in strong selection of double-discordant sibships with death of the naturally conceived and survival of the ART-conceived sibling. After controlling for conception method and outcome in the first pregnancy, ART was not consistently associated with perinatal mortality in the second pregnancy. CONCLUSIONS: Whereas population estimates may be biased by residual confounding, within-sibship estimates were biased by selective fertility and carryover effects. It remains unclear whether ART conception contributes to perinatal mortality.

Risk of stillbirth and neonatal death in singletons born after fresh and frozen embryo transfer: cohort study from the Committee of Nordic Assisted Reproduction Technology and Safety.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate whether risks of stillbirth and neonatal death differ after fresh embryo transfers (fresh-ETs) and frozen embryo transfers (frozen-ETs) compared with singletons conceived without medical assistance. DESIGN: A population-based cohort study. SETTING: Not applicable. PATIENT(S): Data linkage between the nationwide Medical Birth Registries in Denmark (1994-2014), Norway and Sweden (1988-2015), and national quality registries and databases on assisted reproductive technology identified a total of 4,590,853 singletons, including 78,642 conceived by fresh-ET and 18,084 by frozen-ET. INTERVENTION(S): None MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): Stillbirth (fetal death before and during delivery) and neonatal death (live born with death 0-27 days postpartum). RESULT(S): Overall, 17,123 (0.37%) singletons were stillborn and 7,685 (0.17%) died neonatally. Compared with singletons conceived without medical assistance, the odds of stillbirth were similar after fresh-ET and frozen-ET, whereas the odds of neonatal death were high after fresh-ET (odds ratio [OR], 1.69; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.46-1.95) and frozen-ET (OR, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.08-2.10). Preterm birth (<37 gestational weeks) was more common after fresh-ET (8.0%) and frozen-ET (6.6%) compared with singletons conceived without medical assistance (5.0%), and strongly associated with neonatal mortality across all conception methods. Within gestational age categories, risk of stillbirth and neonatal death was similar for all conception methods, except that singletons from fresh-ET had a higher risk of stillbirth during gestational week 22-27 (OR, 1.85; 95% CI, 1.51-2.26). CONCLUSION(S): Overall, the risk of stillbirth was similar after fresh-ET and frozen-ET compared with singletons conceived without medical assistance, whereas neonatal mortality was high, possibly mediated by the high risk of preterm birth when compared with singletons conceived without medical assistance. Our results gave no clear support for choosing one treatment over the other.

Separating parental and treatment contributions to perinatal health after fresh and frozen embryo transfer in assisted reproduction: A cohort study with within-sibship analysis.

BACKGROUND: Compared to naturally conceived children, adverse perinatal outcomes are more common among children born after assisted reproductive technology with fresh embryo transfer (fresh-ET) or frozen embryo transfer (frozen-ET). However, most previous studies could not adequately control for family confounding factors such as subfertility. We compared birth size and duration of pregnancy among infants born after fresh-ET or frozen-ET versus natural conception, using a within-sibship design to account for confounding by maternal factors. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This registry-based cohort study with nationwide data from Denmark (1994-2014), Norway (1988-2015), and Sweden (1988-2015) consisted of 4,510,790 live-born singletons, 4,414,703 from natural conception, 78,095 from fresh-ET, and 17,990 from frozen-ET. We identified 33,056 offspring sibling groups with the same mother, conceived by at least 2 different conception methods. Outcomes were mean birthweight, small and large for gestational age, mean gestational age, preterm (<37 weeks, versus ≥37), and very preterm birth (<32 weeks, versus ≥32). Singletons born after fresh-ET had lower mean birthweight (-51 g, 95% CI -58 to -45, p < 0.001) and increased odds of small for gestational age (odds ratio [OR] 1.20, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.34, p < 0.001), while those born after frozen-ET had higher mean birthweight (82 g, 95% CI 70 to 94, p < 0.001) and increased odds of large for gestational age (OR 1.84, 95% CI 1.56 to 2.17, p < 0.001), compared to naturally conceived siblings. Conventional population analyses gave similar results. Compared to naturally conceived siblings, mean gestational age was lower after fresh-ET (-1.0 days, 95% CI -1.2 to -0.8, p < 0.001), but not after frozen-ET (0.3 days, 95% CI 0.0 to 0.6, p = 0.028). There were increased odds of preterm birth after fresh-ET (OR 1.27, 95% CI 1.17 to 1.37, p < 0.001), and in most models after frozen-ET, versus naturally conceived siblings, with somewhat stronger associations in population analyses. For very preterm birth, population analyses showed increased odds for both fresh-ET (OR 2.03, 95% CI 1.90 to 2.12, p < 0.001) and frozen-ET (OR 1.66, 95% CI 1.42 to 1.94, p < 0.001) compared with natural conception, but results were notably attenuated within siblings (OR 1.18, 95% CI 1.0 to 1.41, p = 0.059, and OR 0.92, 95% CI 0.67 to 1.27, p = 0.6, for fresh-ET and frozen-ET, respectively). Sensitivity analyses in full siblings, in siblings born within 3-year interval, by birth order, and restricting to single embryo transfers and blastocyst transfers were consistent with the main analyses. Main limitations were high proportions of missing data on maternal body mass index and smoking. CONCLUSIONS: We found that infants conceived by fresh-ET had lower birthweight and increased odds of small for gestational age, and those conceived by frozen-ET had higher birthweight and increased odds of large for gestational age. Conception by either fresh-ET or frozen-ET was associated with increased odds of preterm birth. That these findings were observed within siblings, as well as in conventional multivariable population analyses, reduces the likelihood that they are explained by confounding or selection bias. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov ISRCTN11780826.

Time trends in placenta-mediated pregnancy complications after assisted reproductive technology in the Nordic countries.

BACKGROUND: The use of assisted reproductive technology is increasing worldwide and conception after assisted reproduction currently comprises 3%-6% of birth cohorts in the Nordic countries. The risk of placenta-mediated pregnancy complications is greater after assisted reproductive technology compared with spontaneously conceived pregnancies. Whether the excess risk of placenta-mediated pregnancy complications in pregnancies following assisted reproduction has changed over time, is unknown. OBJECTIVES: To investigate whether time trends in risk of pregnancy complications (hypertensive disorders in pregnancy, placental abruption and placenta previa) differ for pregnancies after assisted reproductive technology compared with spontaneously conceived pregnancies during 3 decades of assisted reproduction treatment in the Nordic countries. STUDY DESIGN: In a population-based cohort study, with data from national health registries in Denmark (1994-2014), Finland (1990-2014), Norway (1988-2015) and Sweden (1988-2015), we included 6,830,578 pregnancies resulting in delivery. Among these, 146,998 (2.2%) were pregnancies after assisted reproduction (125,708 singleton pregnancies, 20,668 twin pregnancies and 622 of higher order plurality) and 6,683,132 (97.8%) pregnancies were conceived spontaneously (6,595,185 singleton pregnancies, 87,106 twin pregnancies and 1,289 of higher order plurality). We used logistic regression with post-estimation to estimate absolute risks and risk differences for each complication. We repeated analyses for singleton and twin pregnancies, separately. In subsamples with available information, we also adjusted for maternal body mass index, smoking during pregnancy, previous cesarean delivery, culture duration, and cryopreservation. RESULTS: The risk of each placental complication was consistently greater in pregnancies following assisted reproductive technology compared with spontaneously conceived pregnancies across the study period, except for hypertensive disorders in twin pregnancies, where risks were similar. Risk of hypertensive disorders increased over time in twin pregnancies for both conception methods, but more strongly for pregnancies following assisted reproductive technology (risk difference, 1.73 percentage points per 5 years; 95% confidence interval, 1.35-2.11) than for spontaneously conceived twins (risk difference, 0.75 percentage points; 95% confidence interval, 0.61-0.89). No clear time trends were found for hypertensive disorders in singleton pregnancies. Risk of placental abruption decreased over time in all groups. Risk differences were -0.16 percentage points (95% confidence interval, -0.19 to -0.12) and -0.06 percentage points (95% confidence interval, -0.06 to -0.05) for pregnancies after assisted reproduction and spontaneously conceived pregnancies, respectively, for singletons and multiple pregnancies combined. Over time, the risk of placenta previa increased in pregnancies after assisted reproduction among both singletons (risk difference, 0.21 percentage points; 95% confidence interval, 0.14-0.27) and twins (risk difference, 0.30 percentage points; 95% confidence interval, 0.16-0.43), but remained stable in spontaneously conceived pregnancies. When adjusting for culture duration, the temporal increase in placenta previa became weaker in all groups of assisted reproductive technology pregnancies, whereas adjustment for cryopreservation moderately attenuated trends in assisted reproductive technology twin pregnancies. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of placenta-mediated pregnancy complications following assisted reproductive technology remains higher compared to spontaneously conceived pregnancies, despite declining rates of multiple pregnancies. For hypertensive disorders in pregnancy and placental abruption, pregnancies after assisted reproduction follow the same time trends as the background population, whereas for placenta previa, risk has increased over time in pregnancies after assisted reproductive technology.

Trends over time in congenital malformations in live-born children conceived after assisted reproductive technology.

INTRODUCTION: Children born after assisted reproductive technology, particularly singletons, have been shown to have an increased risk of congenital malformations compared with children born after spontaneous conception. We wished to study whether there has been a change in the past 20 years in the risk of major congenital malformations in children conceived after assisted reproductive technology compared with children spontaneously conceived. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Population-based cohort study including 90 201 assisted reproductive technology children and 482 552 children spontaneously conceived, born in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. Both singletons and twins born after in vitro fertilization, intracytoplasmatic sperm injection and frozen embryo transfer were included. Data on children were taken from when the national Nordic assisted reproductive technology registries were established until 2007. Multiple logistic regression analyses were used to estimate the risks and adjusted odds ratios for congenital malformations in four time periods: 1988-1992, 1993-1997, 1998-2002 and 2003-2007. Only major malformations were included. RESULTS: The absolute risk for singletons of being born with a major malformation was 3.4% among assisted reproductive technology children vs. 2.9% among children spontaneously conceived during the study period. The relative risk of being born with a major congenital malformation between all assisted reproductive technology children and children spontaneously conceived remained similar through all four time periods (p = 0.39). However, we found that over time the number of children diagnosed with a major malformation increased in both groups across all four time periods. CONCLUSION: When comparing children conceived after assisted reproductive technology and spontaneously conceived, the relative risk of being born with a major congenital malformation did not change during the study period.

Cancer in children and young adults born after assisted reproductive technology: a Nordic cohort study from the Committee of Nordic ART and Safety (CoNARTaS).

STUDY QUESTION: Do children and young adults born after assisted reproductive technology (ART) have an increased risk of cancer? SUMMARY ANSWER: Children born after ART showed no overall increase in the rate of cancer when compared with children born as a result of spontaneous conception. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Children born after ART have more adverse perinatal outcomes, i.e. preterm births, low birthweights and birth defects. Previous studies have shown divergent results regarding the risk of cancer among children born after ART. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: A retrospective Nordic population-based cohort study was performed, comprising all children born after ART in Sweden, Denmark, Finland and Norway between 1982 and 2007. The mean (±standard deviation) follow-up time was 9.5 (4.8) years. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Children born after ART (n = 91 796) were compared with a control group of children born after spontaneous conception. This control group was almost 4-fold the size of the ART group (n = 358 419) and matched for parity, year of birth and country. Data on perinatal outcomes and cancer were obtained from the National Medical Birth Registries, the Cancer Registries, the Patient Registries and the Cause of Death Registries. The cancer diagnoses were divided into 12 main groups. Hazard ratios (HRs) and adjusted HR were calculated. Adjustments were carried out for country, maternal age, parity, sex, gestational age and birth defects. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: There was no significant increase in overall cancer rates among children born after ART when compared with children born after spontaneous conception (adjusted HR 1.08; 95% CI 0.91-1.27). Cancer, of any form, was found among 181 children born after ART (2.0/1000 children, 21.0/100 000 person-years) compared with 638 children born after spontaneous conception (1.8/1000 children, 18.8/100 000 person-years). Leukaemia was the most common type of cancer (n = 278, 0.62/1000 children) but no significantly increased incidence was found among children born after ART. An increased risk was observed for 2 of 12 cancer groups. They were central nervous system tumours (adjusted HR 1.44; 95% CI 1.01-2.05) and malignant epithelial neoplasms (adjusted HR 2.03; 95% CI 1.06-3.89); the absolute risks were 0.46/1000 and 0.15/1000 children, respectively, corresponding to an absolute increased risk of 0.14/1000 and 0.08/1000 children, respectively. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: As this is an observational study, the main limitation is the fact that it is not possible to adjust for all potential confounders. We were not able to control for confounders such as socio-economic status and perinatal factors, such as Apgar score, which other studies have suggested affect cancer rates. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: The results of this large population-based cohort study are in agreement with most previously published studies. The main findings are reassuring for couples undergoing ART, children born after ART and clinicians working with ART. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS: No conflict of interest was reported. The study was supported by grants from The European Society for Human Reproduction and Embryology (ESHRE), Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Gothenburg, Sweden, the University of Copenhagen, Denmark, the Danish Agency of Science, Technology and Innovation and the Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology (NFOG).

Infant and maternal health monitoring using a combined Nordic database on ART and safety.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate infant and maternal health after assisted reproductive technology (ART), using data on over 90 000 ART children and their mothers in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. Data have been combined and will be compared with a control group of spontaneously conceived children and their mothers. The overall aim of this project is to evaluate the safety of ART. The size of the cohort should enable estimation of the prevalence of rare conditions such as birth defects, cancers, neurological impairments and imprinting diseases in the ART population compared to control children. Outcome data on the mothers of ART children can be used to study risks during pregnancy and obstetric complications after ART. METHODS: A personal identification number given to all Nordic residents allows cross-linkage of the national health registers and enables long-term follow-up of ART children. The medical birth registers in the Nordic countries make it possible to cross-link data from mother and child. When a child is identified as conceived by ART, we can obtain a list of all International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes ever registered on that specific child. CONCLUSION: Combining the Nordic ART and health registers is a complicated but feasible task. The main strengths of this ongoing study are the size of the cohort of ART children and their mothers and the possibility to follow the children through the health registers. The limitations are related to the national differences in reporting and recording of data together with the heterogeneity of data.