Implications of COVID-19 and mitigation measures on gender and the Zimbabwean economy.

This paper provides a macro-micro modeling analysis of the ex-ante effects of COVID-19 mitigation and recovery policies on macroeconomic and distributional effects, particularly on female and male workers, income distribution, and poverty in Zimbabwe. With an emphasis on modeling gender-disaggregated labor markets and COVID-19 policy responses, the paper presents and combines the most recent data on poverty, gender, and the economy at the national level. The study finds that i) without any government mitigation measures, the gross domestic product will remain below business-as-usual levels; ii) poorer women are hardest hit because they are employed in sectors that are exposed and vulnerable to COVID-19 response measures; and iii) mitigation measures to counteract the negative effects of increases in poverty are effective only in the short term, and additional measures to sustain poverty reduction for the long term to sustain the poverty reductions are required. These results highlight the short-term versus long-term dilemma the government faces when contemplating responses to COVID-19.

How COVID-19 Pandemic Worsens the Economic Situation of Women in South Africa.

Little is known about the general equilibrium impact COVID-19 induces on different gender groups. This paper addresses the problem of relatively few general equilibrium studies focusing on gender impacts of COVID-19. The analysis uses a gendered Computable General Equilibrium model linked to a microsimulation model that analyses a mild and severe scenario of the pandemic on economic and distributional outcomes for females. Irrespective of scenario, findings show that because women employment tend to have unskilled labour which is more concentrated in sectors that are hurt the most by COVID-19 response measures, they suffer disproportionately more from higher unemployment than their male counterparts. The poverty outcomes show worsened vulnerability for female-headed households given that, even prior to the pandemic, poverty was already higher amongst women. These simulated results are consistent with recently observed impacts and address research gaps important for well-designed public policies to reverse these trends.

On connait peu les impacts d'équilibre général induits par la Covid-19 sur les groupes de genre différents. Cette étude adresse le problème de la pénurie d'études en équilibre général s'intéressant aux impacts de la COVID-19 sur le genre. L'analyse te combine un modèle d'équilibre général calculable sexo-spécifique avec un modèle de micro-simulation et évalue deux scenarios de la pandémie, l'un modéré et l'autre sévère, et leurs effets sur les résultats économiques et distributionnels des femmes. Quel que soit le scenario, les résultats démontrent que les femmes souffrent du chômage d'une manière disproportionée comparé aux hommes, puisque le travail des femmes tend à être du travail non qualifié, concentré dans les secteurs qui sont les plus frappés par les mesures de réponse à la COVID-19. En termes de pauvreté, les foyers dirigés par des femmes sont plus vulnérables, étant donné que même avant la pandémie, la pauvreté était déjà plus élevée chez les femmes. Les résultats simulés par cette étude concordent avec les impacts récemment observés, et abordent les lacunes de recherche nécessaires pour modéliser des politiques publiques bien conçues afin de renverser ces tendances.

Economic and Distributional Impact of COVID-19: Evidence from Macro-Micro Modelling of the South African Economy.

A computable general equilibrium model linked to a microsimulation model is applied to assess the potential short-term effects on the South African economy of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. With a particular focus on distributional outcomes, two simulations are run, a mild and a severe scenario. The findings show significant evidence of decline in economic growth and employment, with the decline harsher for the severe scenario. The microeconomic results show that the pandemic moves the income distribution curve such that more households fall under the poverty line while at the same time, inequality declines. The latter result is driven by the disproportionate decline in incomes of richer households while the poorest of the poor are cushioned by government social grants that are kept intact during the pandemic. The COVID-19 pandemic is still unfolding and its economic modelling as well as the data used to operationalise the model will need to be updated and improved upon as more information about the disease and the economy becomes available.