A model-based strategy for the COVID-19 vaccine roll-out in the Philippines.

COVID-19 has affected millions of people worldwide, causing illness and death, and disrupting daily life while imposing a significant social and economic burden. Vaccination is an important control measure that significantly reduces mortality if properly and efficiently distributed. In this work, an age-structured model of COVID-19 transmission, incorporating an unreported infectious compartment, is developed. Three age groups are considered: young (0-19 years), adult (20-64 years), and elderly (65+ years). The transmission rate and reporting rate are determined for each group by utilizing the number of COVID-19 cases in the National Capital Region in the Philippines. Optimal control theory is employed to identify the best vaccine allocation to different age groups. Further, three different vaccination periods are considered to reflect phases of vaccination priority groups: the first, second, and third account for the inoculation of the elderly, adult and elderly, and all three age groups, respectively. This study could guide in making informed decisions in mitigating a population-structured disease transmission under limited resources.

A framework for deriving analytic steady states of biochemical reaction networks.

The long-term behaviors of biochemical systems are often described by their steady states. Deriving these states directly for complex networks arising from real-world applications, however, is often challenging. Recent work has consequently focused on network-based approaches. Specifically, biochemical reaction networks are transformed into weakly reversible and deficiency zero generalized networks, which allows the derivation of their analytic steady states. Identifying this transformation, however, can be challenging for large and complex networks. In this paper, we address this difficulty by breaking the complex network into smaller independent subnetworks and then transforming the subnetworks to derive the analytic steady states of each subnetwork. We show that stitching these solutions together leads to the analytic steady states of the original network. To facilitate this process, we develop a user-friendly and publicly available package, COMPILES (COMPutIng anaLytic stEady States). With COMPILES, we can easily test the presence of bistability of a CRISPRi toggle switch model, which was previously investigated via tremendous number of numerical simulations and within a limited range of parameters. Furthermore, COMPILES can be used to identify absolute concentration robustness (ACR), the property of a system that maintains the concentration of particular species at a steady state regardless of any initial concentrations. Specifically, our approach completely identifies all the species with and without ACR in a complex insulin model. Our method provides an effective approach to analyzing and understanding complex biochemical systems.

Independent Decompositions of Chemical Reaction Networks.

A chemical reaction network (CRN) is composed of reactions that can be seen as interactions among entities called species, which exist within the system. Endowed with kinetics, CRN has a corresponding set of ordinary differential equations (ODEs). In chemical reaction network theory, we are interested with connections between the structure of the CRN and qualitative properties of the corresponding ODEs. One of the results in decomposition theory of CRNs is that the intersection of the sets of positive steady states of the subsystems is equal to the set of positive steady states of the whole system, if the decomposition is independent. Hence, computational approach using independent decompositions can be used as an efficient tool in studying large systems. In this work, we provide a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of a nontrivial independent decomposition of a CRN, which leads to a novel step-by-step method to obtain such decomposition, if it exists. We also illustrate these results using real-life examples. In particular, we show that a CRN of a popular model of anaerobic yeast fermentation pathway has a nontrivial independent decomposition, while a particular biological system, which is a metabolic network with one positive feedforward and a negative feedback has none. Finally, we analyze properties of positive steady states of reaction networks of specific influenza virus models.