High risk of malnutrition among hospitalised coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients is associated with mortality and other clinical outcomes.

INTRODUCTION: Increasing evidence indicates an association between nutritional status and Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) disease severity. The aim of the study was to describe the risk of malnutrition, body mass index (BMI) and vitamin D status of hospitalised COVID-19 patients and assess whether they are associated with duration of hospital stay, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, mechanical ventilation, and mortality. METHODS: The study is a descriptive retrospective study of 273 patients with COVID-19 admitted to Hospital from February 2020 to March 2021. Patients were screened for risk of malnutrition using a validated screening tool. BMI was calculated from height and weight. Insufficient Vitamin D status was defined as 25(OH)vitD <50 nmol/L. Logistic regression analysis was used to assess the association between indicators of nutritional status of patients with COVID-19, and outcomes such as duration of stay >7 days, ICU admission, mechanical ventilation, and mortality. Interaction between risk of malnutrition and BMI of ≥30 kg/m2 was assessed using the likelihood ratio test with hospital stay, ICU admission, mechanical ventilation, and mortality as outcomes. RESULTS: Screening for risk of malnutrition identified 201 (74%) patients at a medium to high risk of malnutrition. Patients defined as being at a medium or high risk of malnutrition were more likely to be hospitalised for >7 days compared to those defined as low risk (OR: 10.72; 95% CI: 3.9-29.46; p < 0.001 and OR: 61.57; 95% CI: 19.48-194.62; p < 0.001, respectively). All patients who were admitted to ICU (n = 41) and required mechanical ventilation (n = 27) were defined as having medium or high risk of malnutrition. High risk of malnutrition was also associated with increased odds of mortality (OR: 8.87; 955 CI 1.08-72,96; p = 0.042). BMI of ≥30 kg/m2 (43%) and 25(OH)vitD <50 nmol/L (20%) were not associated with duration of stay >7 days or mortality, although BMI ≥30 kg/m2 was associated with increased risk of ICU admission (OR: 7.12; 95% CI: 1.59-31.94; p = 0.010) and mechanical ventilation (OR: 8.86; 95% CI: 1.12-69.87; p = 0.038). Interactions between risk of malnutrition and BMI ≥30 kg/m2 were not significant to explain the outcomes of hospital stay >7 days, ICU admission, mechanical ventilation, or mortality. CONCLUSION: High risk of malnutrition among hospitalised COVID-19 patients was associated with longer duration of hospital stay, ICU admission, mechanical ventilation and mortality, and BMI ≥30 kg/m2 was associated with ICU admission and mechanical ventilation. Insufficient Vitamin D status was not associated with duration of hospital stay, ICU admission, mechanical ventilation, or mortality.

Cascade of care during the first 36 months of the treatment as prevention for hepatitis C (TraP HepC) programme in Iceland: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: WHO has set targets to eliminate hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection as a global health threat by 2030 through a 65% reduction in HCV-related deaths and 80% reduction in HCV incidence. To achieve these goals, WHO set service coverage targets of 90% of the infected population being diagnosed and 80% of eligible patients being treated. In February, 2016, Iceland initiated a nationwide HCV elimination programme known as treatment as prevention for hepatitis C (TraP HepC), which aimed to maximise diagnosis and treatment access. This analysis reports on the HCV cascade of care in the first 3 years of the programme. METHODS: This population-based study was done between Feb 10, 2016, and Feb 10, 2019. Participants aged 18 years or older with permanent residence in Iceland and PCR-confirmed HCV were offered direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy. The programme used a multidisciplinary team approach in which people who inject drugs were prioritised. Nationwide awareness campaigns, improved access to testing, and harm reduction services were scaled up simultaneously. The number of infected people in the national HCV registry was used in combination with multiple other data sources, including screening of low-risk groups and high-risk groups, to estimate the total number of HCV infections. The number of people diagnosed, linked to care, initiated on treatment, and cured were recorded during the study. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02647879. FINDINGS: In February, 2016, at the onset of the programme, 760 (95% CI 690-851) individuals were estimated to have HCV infection, with 75 (95% CI 6-166) individuals undiagnosed. 682 individuals were confirmed to be HCV PCR positive. Over the next 3 years, 183 new infections (including 42 reinfections) were diagnosed, for a total of 865 infections in 823 individuals. It was estimated that more than 90% of all domestic HCV infections had been diagnosed as early as January, 2017. During the 3 years, 824 (95·3%) of diagnosed infections were linked to care, and treatment was initiated for 795 (96·5%) of infections linked to care. Cure was achieved for 717 (90·2%) of 795 infections. INTERPRETATION: By using a multidisciplinary public health approach, involving tight integration with addiction treatment services, the core service coverage targets for 2030 set by WHO have been reached. These achievements position Iceland to be among the first nations to subsequently achieve the WHO goal of eliminating HCV as a public health threat. FUNDING: The Icelandic Government and Gilead Sciences.

Modelling the elimination of hepatitis C as a public health threat in Iceland: A goal attainable by 2020.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: In Iceland a nationwide program has been launched offering direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment for everyone living with hepatitis C virus (HCV). We estimate (i) the time and treatment scale-up required to achieve the World Health Organization's HCV elimination target of an 80% reduction in incidence; and (ii) the ongoing frequency of HCV testing and harm reduction coverage among people who inject drugs (PWID) required to minimize the likelihood of future HCV outbreaks occurring. METHODS: We used a dynamic compartmental model of HCV transmission, liver disease progression and the HCV cascade of care, calibrated to reproduce the epidemic of HCV in Iceland. The model was stratified according to injecting drug use status, age and stage of engagement. Four scenarios were considered for the projections. RESULTS: The model estimated that an 80% reduction in domestic HCV incidence was achievable by 2030, 2025 or 2020 if a minimum of 55/1,000, 75/1,000 and 188/1,000 PWID were treated per year, respectively (a total of 22, 30 and 75 of the estimated 400 PWID in Iceland per year, respectively). Regardless of time frame, this required an increased number of PWID to be diagnosed to generate enough treatment demand, or a 20% scale-up of harm reduction services to complement treatment-as-prevention incidence reductions. When DAA scale-up was combined with annual antibody testing of PWID, the incidence reduction target was reached by 2024. Treatment scale-up with no other changes to current testing and harm reduction services reduced the basic reproduction number of HCV from 1.08 to 0.59, indicating that future outbreaks would be unlikely. CONCLUSION: HCV elimination in Iceland is achievable by 2020 with some additional screening of PWID. Maintaining current monitoring and harm reduction services while providing ongoing access to DAA therapy for people diagnosed with HCV would ensure that outbreaks are unlikely to occur once elimination targets have been reached. LAY SUMMARY: In Iceland, a nationwide program has been launched offering treatment for the entire population living with hepatitis C virus (HCV). A mathematical model was used to estimate the additional health system requirements to achieve the HCV elimination targets of the World Health Organization (WHO), as well as the year that this could occur. With some additional screening of people who inject drugs, Iceland could reach the WHO targets by 2020, becoming one of the first countries to achieve HCV elimination. The model estimated that once elimination targets were reached, maintaining current monitoring and harm reduction services while providing ongoing access to DAA therapy for people diagnosed with HCV would ensure that future HCV outbreaks are unlikely to occur.

Intense habitat-specific fisheries-induced selection at the molecular Pan I locus predicts imminent collapse of a major cod fishery.

Predation is a powerful agent in the ecology and evolution of predator and prey. Prey may select multiple habitats whereby different genotypes prefer different habitats. If the predator is also habitat-specific the prey may evolve different habitat occupancy. Drastic changes can occur in the relation of the predator to the evolved prey. Fisheries exert powerful predation and can be a potent evolutionary force. Fisheries-induced selection can lead to phenotypic changes that influence the collapse and recovery of the fishery. However, heritability of the phenotypic traits involved and selection intensities are low suggesting that fisheries-induced evolution occurs at moderate rates at decadal time scales. The Pantophysin I (Pan I) locus in Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), representing an ancient balanced polymorphism predating the split of cod and its sister species, is under an unusual mix of balancing and directional selection including current selective sweeps. Here we show that Pan I alleles are highly correlated with depth with a gradient of 0.44% allele frequency change per meter. AA fish are shallow-water and BB deep-water adapted in accordance with behavioral studies using data storage tags showing habitat selection by Pan I genotype. AB fish are somewhat intermediate although closer to AA. Furthermore, using a sampling design covering space and time we detect intense habitat-specific fisheries-induced selection against the shallow-water adapted fish with an average 8% allele frequency change per year within year class. Genotypic fitness estimates (0.08, 0.27, 1.00 of AA, AB, and BB respectively) predict rapid disappearance of shallow-water adapted fish. Ecological and evolutionary time scales, therefore, are congruent. We hypothesize a potential collapse of the fishery. We find that probabilistic maturation reaction norms for Atlantic cod at Iceland show declining length and age at maturing comparable to changes that preceded the collapse of northern cod at Newfoundland, further supporting the hypothesis. We speculate that immediate establishment of large no-take reserves may help avert collapse.