Can meteorological factors forecast asthma exacerbation in a paediatric population?

BACKGROUND: Asthma exacerbations attended in emergency departments show a marked seasonality in the paediatric age. This seasonal pattern can change from one population to another and the factors involved are poorly understood. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the association between meteorological factors and schooling with asthma exacerbations in children attended in the paediatric emergency department of a district hospital. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective review of the medical records of children 5---14 years of age attended for asthma exacerbations during a 4-year period (2007---2011). Climatic data were obtained from a weather station located very close to the population studied. The number of asthma exacerbations was correlated to temperature, barometric pressure, relative humidity, rainfall, wind speed, wind distance, solar radiation, water vapour pressure and schooling, using regression analyses. RESULTS: During the study period, 371 children were attended for asthma exacerbations; median age was eight years (IQR: 6---11), and 59% were males. Asthma exacerbations showed a bimodal pattern with peaks in spring and summer. Maximum annual peak occurred in week 39, within 15 days from school beginning after the summer holidays. A regression model with mean temperature, water vapour pressure, relative humidity, maximum wind speed and schooling could explain 98.4% (p < 0.001) of monthly asthma exacerbations. CONCLUSIONS: The combination of meteorological factors and schooling could predict asthma exacerbations in children attended in a paediatric emergency department

No disponible

Solar radiation and water vapor pressure to forecast chickenpox epidemics.

The clear seasonality of varicella infections in temperate regions suggests the influence of meteorologic conditions. However, there are very few data on this association. The aim of this study was to determine the seasonal pattern of varicella infections on the Mediterranean island of Mallorca (Spain), and its association with meteorologic conditions and schooling. Data on the number of cases of varicella were obtained from the Network of Epidemiologic Surveillance, which is composed of primary care physicians who notify varicella cases on a compulsory basis. From 1995 to 2012, varicella cases were correlated to temperature, humidity, rainfall, water vapor pressure, atmospheric pressure, wind speed, and solar radiation using regression and time-series models. The influence of schooling was also analyzed. A total of 68,379 cases of varicella were notified during the study period. Cases occurred all year round, with a peak incidence in June. Varicella cases increased with the decrease in water vapor pressure and/or the increase of solar radiation, 3 and 4 weeks prior to reporting, respectively. An inverse association was also observed between varicella cases and school holidays. Using these variables, the best fitting autoregressive moving average with exogenous variables (ARMAX) model could predict 95 % of varicella cases. In conclusion, varicella in our region had a clear seasonality, which was mainly determined by solar radiation and water vapor pressure.

Can meteorological factors forecast asthma exacerbation in a paediatric population?

BACKGROUND: Asthma exacerbations attended in emergency departments show a marked seasonality in the paediatric age. This seasonal pattern can change from one population to another and the factors involved are poorly understood. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the association between meteorological factors and schooling with asthma exacerbations in children attended in the paediatric emergency department of a district hospital. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective review of the medical records of children 5-14 years of age attended for asthma exacerbations during a 4-year period (2007-2011). Climatic data were obtained from a weather station located very close to the population studied. The number of asthma exacerbations was correlated to temperature, barometric pressure, relative humidity, rainfall, wind speed, wind distance, solar radiation, water vapour pressure and schooling, using regression analyses. RESULTS: During the study period, 371 children were attended for asthma exacerbations; median age was eight years (IQR: 6-11), and 59% were males. Asthma exacerbations showed a bimodal pattern with peaks in spring and summer. Maximum annual peak occurred in week 39, within 15 days from school beginning after the summer holidays. A regression model with mean temperature, water vapour pressure, relative humidity, maximum wind speed and schooling could explain 98.4% (p<0.001) of monthly asthma exacerbations. CONCLUSIONS: The combination of meteorological factors and schooling could predict asthma exacerbations in children attended in a paediatric emergency department.

Are hospitalizations for rotavirus gastroenteritis associated with meteorologic factors?

Local climatic factors might explain seasonal patterns of rotavirus infections, but few models have been proposed to determine the effects of weather conditions on rotavirus activity. Here, we study the association of meteorologic factors with rotavirus activity, as determined by the number of children hospitalized for rotavirus gastroenteritis on the Mediterranean island of Mallorca (Spain). We conducted a retrospective review of the medical records of children aged 0-5 years admitted for rotavirus gastroenteritis between January 2000 and December 2010. The number of rotavirus hospitalizations was correlated to temperature, humidity, rainfall, atmospheric pressure, water vapor pressure, wind speed, and solar radiation using regression and time-series techniques. A total of 311 patients were hospitalized for rotavirus gastroenteritis in the 11-year study period, with a seasonal pattern from December to June, and a peak incidence in February. After multiple regressions, weekly rotavirus activity could be explained in 82 % of cases (p < 0.001) with a one-week lag meteorologic model. Rotavirus activity was negatively associated to temperature and positively associated to atmospheric pressure, solar radiation, and wind speed. Temperature and solar radiation were the factors that contributed most to the model, with a peak rotavirus activity at 9 °C and 800 10KJ/m(2), respectively. In conclusion, hospitalization for rotavirus was strongly associated with mean temperature, but an association of rotavirus activity with solar radiation, atmospheric pressure, and wind speed was also demonstrated. This model predicted more than 80 % of rotavirus hospitalizations.