Systematic reviews and meta-analyses in neurosurgery part I: interpreting and critically appraising as a guide for clinical practice.

Neurosurgeons are inundated with the Herculean task to keep abreast with the rapid pace at which clinical research is proliferating. Systematic reviews and meta-analyses (SRMAs) have consequently surged in popularity because when executed properly, they constitute the highest level of evidence, and may save busy neurosurgeons many hours of combing the literature. Well-executed SRMAs may prove instructive for clinical practice, but poorly conducted reviews sow confusion and may potentially cause harm. Unfortunately, many SRMAs within neurosurgery are relatively lackluster in methodological rigor. When neurosurgeons apply the results of an SRMA to patient care, they should start by evaluating the extent to which the employed methods have likely protected against misleading results. The present article aims to educate the reader about how to interpret an SRMA, to assess the potential relevance of its results in the special context of the neurosurgical patient population.

Immunogenicity and seroefficacy of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines: a systematic review and network meta-analysis.

Background: Vaccination of infants with pneumococcal conjugate vaccines is recommended by the World Health Organization. Evidence is mixed regarding the differences in immunogenicity and efficacy of the different pneumococcal vaccines. Objectives: The primary objective was to compare the immunogenicity of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine-10 versus pneumococcal conjugate vaccine-13. The main secondary objective was to compare the seroefficacy of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine-10 versus pneumococcal conjugate vaccine-13. Methods: We searched the Cochrane Library, EMBASE, Global Health, MEDLINE, ClinicalTrials.gov and trialsearch.who.int up to July 2022. Studies were eligible if they directly compared either pneumococcal conjugate vaccine-7, pneumococcal conjugate vaccine-10 or pneumococcal conjugate vaccine-13 in randomised trials of children under 2 years of age, and provided immunogenicity data for at least one time point. Individual participant data were requested and aggregate data used otherwise. Outcomes included the geometric mean ratio of serotype-specific immunoglobulin G and the relative risk of seroinfection. Seroinfection was defined for each individual as a rise in antibody between the post-primary vaccination series time point and the booster dose, evidence of presumed subclinical infection. Each trial was analysed to obtain the log of the ratio of geometric means and its standard error. The relative risk of seroinfection ('seroefficacy') was estimated by comparing the proportion of participants with seroinfection between vaccine groups. The log-geometric mean ratios, log-relative risks and their standard errors constituted the input data for evidence synthesis. For serotypes contained in all three vaccines, evidence could be synthesised using a network meta-analysis. For other serotypes, meta-analysis was used. Results from seroefficacy analyses were incorporated into a mathematical model of pneumococcal transmission dynamics to compare the differential impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine-10 and pneumococcal conjugate vaccine-13 introduction on invasive pneumococcal disease cases. The model estimated the impact of vaccine introduction over a 25-year time period and an economic evaluation was conducted. Results: In total, 47 studies were eligible from 38 countries. Twenty-eight and 12 studies with data available were included in immunogenicity and seroefficacy analyses, respectively. Geometric mean ratios comparing pneumococcal conjugate vaccine-13 versus pneumococcal conjugate vaccine-10 favoured pneumococcal conjugate vaccine-13 for serotypes 4, 9V and 23F at 1 month after primary vaccination series, with 1.14- to 1.54-fold significantly higher immunoglobulin G responses with pneumococcal conjugate vaccine-13. Risk of seroinfection prior to the time of booster dose was lower for pneumococcal conjugate vaccine-13 for serotype 4, 6B, 9V, 18C and 23F than for pneumococcal conjugate vaccine-10. Significant heterogeneity and inconsistency were present for most serotypes and for both outcomes. Twofold higher antibody after primary vaccination was associated with a 54% decrease in risk of seroinfection (relative risk 0.46, 95% confidence interval 0.23 to 0.96). In modelled scenarios, pneumococcal conjugate vaccine-13 or pneumococcal conjugate vaccine-10 introduction in 2006 resulted in a reduction in cases that was less rapid for pneumococcal conjugate vaccine-10 than for pneumococcal conjugate vaccine-13. The pneumococcal conjugate vaccine-13 programme was predicted to avoid an additional 2808 (95% confidence interval 2690 to 2925) cases of invasive pneumococcal disease compared with pneumococcal conjugate vaccine-10 introduction between 2006 and 2030. Limitations: Analyses used data from infant vaccine studies with blood samples taken prior to a booster dose. The impact of extrapolating pre-booster efficacy to post-booster time points is unknown. Network meta-analysis models contained significant heterogeneity which may lead to bias. Conclusions: Serotype-specific differences were found in immunogenicity and seroefficacy between pneumococcal conjugate vaccine-13 and pneumococcal conjugate vaccine-10. Higher antibody response after vaccination was associated with a lower risk of subsequent infection. These methods can be used to compare the pneumococcal conjugate vaccines and optimise vaccination strategies. For future work, seroefficacy estimates can be determined for other pneumococcal vaccines, which could contribute to licensing or policy decisions for new pneumococcal vaccines. Study registration: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42019124580. Funding: This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme (NIHR award ref: 17/148/03) and is published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 28, No. 34. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

Pneumococcal disease is a serious illness caused by a bacterial infection that can result in death. Children in the United Kingdom receive a vaccine to prevent this disease that protects against 13 different types of pneumococcal diseases. It is very effective, but other vaccines are also available, such as one that contains 10 types of pneumococcal diseases. Vaccines in the United Kingdom are bought by the government and the choice of which vaccine to provide is based on the cost of the vaccine as well as the benefits to our health. However, there is very little information comparing different vaccines and it is often assumed they are the same. We did a large analysis combining all studies of the two main licensed pneumococcal vaccines to determine which vaccine provides better protection against infection and how this affects costs. We used information from studies published in medical journals, and also data from studies done by the companies that own the vaccines. Our results showed that pneumococcal conjugate vaccine-13 vaccine provided better protection than pneumococcal conjugate vaccine-10 for 5 of the 10 serotypes that are contained in both vaccines. When we used these results to model what might have happened had either of these vaccines been introduced into the United Kingdom vaccination programme in 2006, we found that both vaccines caused a rapid decrease in the amount of disease, but that the decrease in disease was faster with pneumococcal conjugate vaccine-13 than pneumococcal conjugate vaccine-10. This resulted in 2808 cases of diseases prevented over a 25-year time frame with pneumococcal conjugate vaccine-13 compared with pneumococcal conjugate vaccine-10. Our methods can be used to compare other vaccines and we recommend this type of study be done in future when making decisions on vaccine product choice.

Interventions to prevent obesity in children aged 5 to 11 years old.

BACKGROUND: Prevention of obesity in children is an international public health priority given the prevalence of the condition (and its significant impact on health, development and well-being). Interventions that aim to prevent obesity involve behavioural change strategies that promote healthy eating or 'activity' levels (physical activity, sedentary behaviour and/or sleep) or both, and work by reducing energy intake and/or increasing energy expenditure, respectively. There is uncertainty over which approaches are more effective and numerous new studies have been published over the last five years, since the previous version of this Cochrane review. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effects of interventions that aim to prevent obesity in children by modifying dietary intake or 'activity' levels, or a combination of both, on changes in BMI, zBMI score and serious adverse events. SEARCH METHODS: We used standard, extensive Cochrane search methods. The latest search date was February 2023. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials in children (mean age 5 years and above but less than 12 years), comparing diet or 'activity' interventions (or both) to prevent obesity with no intervention, usual care, or with another eligible intervention, in any setting. Studies had to measure outcomes at a minimum of 12 weeks post baseline. We excluded interventions designed primarily to improve sporting performance. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We used standard Cochrane methods. Our outcomes were body mass index (BMI), zBMI score and serious adverse events, assessed at short- (12 weeks to < 9 months from baseline), medium- (9 months to < 15 months) and long-term (≥ 15 months) follow-up. We used GRADE to assess the certainty of the evidence for each outcome. MAIN RESULTS: This review includes 172 studies (189,707 participants); 149 studies (160,267 participants) were included in meta-analyses. One hundred forty-six studies were based in high-income countries. The main setting for intervention delivery was schools (111 studies), followed by the community (15 studies), the home (eight studies) and a clinical setting (seven studies); one intervention was conducted by telehealth and 31 studies were conducted in more than one setting. Eighty-six interventions were implemented for less than nine months; the shortest was conducted over one visit and the longest over four years. Non-industry funding was declared by 132 studies; 24 studies were funded in part or wholly by industry. Dietary interventions versus control Dietary interventions, compared with control, may have little to no effect on BMI at short-term follow-up (mean difference (MD) 0, 95% confidence interval (CI) -0.10 to 0.10; 5 studies, 2107 participants; low-certainty evidence) and at medium-term follow-up (MD -0.01, 95% CI -0.15 to 0.12; 9 studies, 6815 participants; low-certainty evidence) or zBMI at long-term follow-up (MD -0.05, 95% CI -0.10 to 0.01; 7 studies, 5285 participants; low-certainty evidence). Dietary interventions, compared with control, probably have little to no effect on BMI at long-term follow-up (MD -0.17, 95% CI -0.48 to 0.13; 2 studies, 945 participants; moderate-certainty evidence) and zBMI at short- or medium-term follow-up (MD -0.06, 95% CI -0.13 to 0.01; 8 studies, 3695 participants; MD -0.04, 95% CI -0.10 to 0.02; 9 studies, 7048 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). Five studies (1913 participants; very low-certainty evidence) reported data on serious adverse events: one reported serious adverse events (e.g. allergy, behavioural problems and abdominal discomfort) that may have occurred as a result of the intervention; four reported no effect. Activity interventions versus control Activity interventions, compared with control, may have little to no effect on BMI and zBMI at short-term or long-term follow-up (BMI short-term: MD -0.02, 95% CI -0.17 to 0.13; 14 studies, 4069 participants; zBMI short-term: MD -0.02, 95% CI -0.07 to 0.02; 6 studies, 3580 participants; low-certainty evidence; BMI long-term: MD -0.07, 95% CI -0.24 to 0.10; 8 studies, 8302 participants; zBMI long-term: MD -0.02, 95% CI -0.09 to 0.04; 6 studies, 6940 participants; low-certainty evidence). Activity interventions likely result in a slight reduction of BMI and zBMI at medium-term follow-up (BMI: MD -0.11, 95% CI -0.18 to -0.05; 16 studies, 21,286 participants; zBMI: MD -0.05, 95% CI -0.09 to -0.02; 13 studies, 20,600 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). Eleven studies (21,278 participants; low-certainty evidence) reported data on serious adverse events; one study reported two minor ankle sprains and one study reported the incident rate of adverse events (e.g. musculoskeletal injuries) that may have occurred as a result of the intervention; nine studies reported no effect. Dietary and activity interventions versus control Dietary and activity interventions, compared with control, may result in a slight reduction in BMI and zBMI at short-term follow-up (BMI: MD -0.11, 95% CI -0.21 to -0.01; 27 studies, 16,066 participants; zBMI: MD -0.03, 95% CI -0.06 to 0.00; 26 studies, 12,784 participants; low-certainty evidence) and likely result in a reduction of BMI and zBMI at medium-term follow-up (BMI: MD -0.11, 95% CI -0.21 to 0.00; 21 studies, 17,547 participants; zBMI: MD -0.05, 95% CI -0.07 to -0.02; 24 studies, 20,998 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). Dietary and activity interventions compared with control may result in little to no difference in BMI and zBMI at long-term follow-up (BMI: MD 0.03, 95% CI -0.11 to 0.16; 16 studies, 22,098 participants; zBMI: MD -0.02, 95% CI -0.06 to 0.01; 22 studies, 23,594 participants; low-certainty evidence). Nineteen studies (27,882 participants; low-certainty evidence) reported data on serious adverse events: four studies reported occurrence of serious adverse events (e.g. injuries, low levels of extreme dieting behaviour); 15 studies reported no effect. Heterogeneity was apparent in the results for all outcomes at the three follow-up times, which could not be explained by the main setting of the interventions (school, home, school and home, other), country income status (high-income versus non-high-income), participants' socioeconomic status (low versus mixed) and duration of the intervention. Most studies excluded children with a mental or physical disability. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: The body of evidence in this review demonstrates that a range of school-based 'activity' interventions, alone or in combination with dietary interventions, may have a modest beneficial effect on obesity in childhood at short- and medium-term, but not at long-term follow-up. Dietary interventions alone may result in little to no difference. Limited evidence of low quality was identified on the effect of dietary and/or activity interventions on severe adverse events and health inequalities; exploratory analyses of these data suggest no meaningful impact. We identified a dearth of evidence for home and community-based settings (e.g. delivered through local youth groups), for children living with disabilities and indicators of health inequities.

Interventions to prevent obesity in children aged 12 to 18 years old.

BACKGROUND: Prevention of obesity in adolescents is an international public health priority. The prevalence of overweight and obesity is over 25% in North and South America, Australia, most of Europe, and the Gulf region. Interventions that aim to prevent obesity involve strategies that promote healthy diets or 'activity' levels (physical activity, sedentary behaviour and/or sleep) or both, and work by reducing energy intake and/or increasing energy expenditure, respectively. There is uncertainty over which approaches are more effective, and numerous new studies have been published over the last five years since the previous version of this Cochrane Review. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effects of interventions that aim to prevent obesity in adolescents by modifying dietary intake or 'activity' levels, or a combination of both, on changes in BMI, zBMI score and serious adverse events. SEARCH METHODS: We used standard, extensive Cochrane search methods. The latest search date was February 2023. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials in adolescents (mean age 12 years and above but less than 19 years), comparing diet or 'activity' interventions (or both) to prevent obesity with no intervention, usual care, or with another eligible intervention, in any setting. Studies had to measure outcomes at a minimum of 12 weeks post baseline. We excluded interventions designed primarily to improve sporting performance. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We used standard Cochrane methods. Our outcomes were BMI, zBMI score and serious adverse events, assessed at short- (12 weeks to < 9 months from baseline), medium- (9 months to < 15 months) and long-term (≥ 15 months) follow-up. We used GRADE to assess the certainty of the evidence for each outcome. MAIN RESULTS: This review includes 74 studies (83,407 participants); 54 studies (46,358 participants) were included in meta-analyses. Sixty studies were based in high-income countries. The main setting for intervention delivery was schools (57 studies), followed by home (nine studies), the community (five studies) and a primary care setting (three studies). Fifty-one interventions were implemented for less than nine months; the shortest was conducted over one visit and the longest over 28 months. Sixty-two studies declared non-industry funding; five were funded in part by industry. Dietary interventions versus control The evidence is very uncertain about the effects of dietary interventions on body mass index (BMI) at short-term follow-up (mean difference (MD) -0.18, 95% confidence interval (CI) -0.41 to 0.06; 3 studies, 605 participants), medium-term follow-up (MD -0.65, 95% CI -1.18 to -0.11; 3 studies, 900 participants), and standardised BMI (zBMI) at long-term follow-up (MD -0.14, 95% CI -0.38 to 0.10; 2 studies, 1089 participants); all very low-certainty evidence. Compared with control, dietary interventions may have little to no effect on BMI at long-term follow-up (MD -0.30, 95% CI -1.67 to 1.07; 1 study, 44 participants); zBMI at short-term (MD -0.06, 95% CI -0.12 to 0.01; 5 studies, 3154 participants); and zBMI at medium-term (MD 0.02, 95% CI -0.17 to 0.21; 1 study, 112 participants) follow-up; all low-certainty evidence. Dietary interventions may have little to no effect on serious adverse events (two studies, 377 participants; low-certainty evidence). Activity interventions versus control Compared with control, activity interventions do not reduce BMI at short-term follow-up (MD -0.64, 95% CI -1.86 to 0.58; 6 studies, 1780 participants; low-certainty evidence) and probably do not reduce zBMI at medium- (MD 0, 95% CI -0.04 to 0.05; 6 studies, 5335 participants) or long-term (MD -0.05, 95% CI -0.12 to 0.02; 1 study, 985 participants) follow-up; both moderate-certainty evidence. Activity interventions do not reduce zBMI at short-term follow-up (MD 0.02, 95% CI -0.01 to 0.05; 7 studies, 4718 participants; high-certainty evidence), but may reduce BMI slightly at medium-term (MD -0.32, 95% CI -0.53 to -0.11; 3 studies, 2143 participants) and long-term (MD -0.28, 95% CI -0.51 to -0.05; 1 study, 985 participants) follow-up; both low-certainty evidence. Seven studies (5428 participants; low-certainty evidence) reported data on serious adverse events: two reported injuries relating to the exercise component of the intervention and five reported no effect of intervention on reported serious adverse events. Dietary and activity interventions versus control Dietary and activity interventions, compared with control, do not reduce BMI at short-term follow-up (MD 0.03, 95% CI -0.07 to 0.13; 11 studies, 3429 participants; high-certainty evidence), and probably do not reduce BMI at medium-term (MD 0.01, 95% CI -0.09 to 0.11; 8 studies, 5612 participants; moderate-certainty evidence) or long-term (MD 0.06, 95% CI -0.04 to 0.16; 6 studies, 8736 participants; moderate-certainty evidence) follow-up. They may have little to no effect on zBMI in the short term, but the evidence is very uncertain (MD -0.09, 95% CI -0.2 to 0.02; 3 studies, 515 participants; very low-certainty evidence), and they may not reduce zBMI at medium-term (MD -0.05, 95% CI -0.1 to 0.01; 6 studies, 3511 participants; low-certainty evidence) or long-term (MD -0.02, 95% CI -0.05 to 0.01; 7 studies, 8430 participants; low-certainty evidence) follow-up. Four studies (2394 participants) reported data on serious adverse events (very low-certainty evidence): one reported an increase in weight concern in a few adolescents and three reported no effect. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: The evidence demonstrates that dietary interventions may have little to no effect on obesity in adolescents. There is low-certainty evidence that activity interventions may have a small beneficial effect on BMI at medium- and long-term follow-up. Diet plus activity interventions may result in little to no difference. Importantly, this updated review also suggests that interventions to prevent obesity in this age group may result in little to no difference in serious adverse effects. Limitations of the evidence include inconsistent results across studies, lack of methodological rigour in some studies and small sample sizes. Further research is justified to investigate the effects of diet and activity interventions to prevent childhood obesity in community settings, and in young people with disabilities, since very few ongoing studies are likely to address these. Further randomised trials to address the remaining uncertainty about the effects of diet, activity interventions, or both, to prevent childhood obesity in schools (ideally with zBMI as the measured outcome) would need to have larger samples.

A tool to assess risk of bias in non-randomized follow-up studies of exposure effects (ROBINS-E).

BACKGROUND: Observational epidemiologic studies provide critical data for the evaluation of the potential effects of environmental, occupational and behavioural exposures on human health. Systematic reviews of these studies play a key role in informing policy and practice. Systematic reviews should incorporate assessments of the risk of bias in results of the included studies. OBJECTIVE: To develop a new tool, Risk Of Bias In Non-randomized Studies - of Exposures (ROBINS-E) to assess risk of bias in estimates from cohort studies of the causal effect of an exposure on an outcome. METHODS AND RESULTS: ROBINS-E was developed by a large group of researchers from diverse research and public health disciplines through a series of working groups, in-person meetings and pilot testing phases. The tool aims to assess the risk of bias in a specific result (exposure effect estimate) from an individual observational study that examines the effect of an exposure on an outcome. A series of preliminary considerations informs the core ROBINS-E assessment, including details of the result being assessed and the causal effect being estimated. The assessment addresses bias within seven domains, through a series of 'signalling questions'. Domain-level judgements about risk of bias are derived from the answers to these questions, then combined to produce an overall risk of bias judgement for the result, together with judgements about the direction of bias. CONCLUSION: ROBINS-E provides a standardized framework for examining potential biases in results from cohort studies. Future work will produce variants of the tool for other epidemiologic study designs (e.g. case-control studies). We believe that ROBINS-E represents an important development in the integration of exposure assessment, evidence synthesis and causal inference.

Efficacy of PD-1/PD-L1 immunotherapy on brain metastatic non-small-cell lung cancer and treatment-related adverse events: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Recent evidence suggests that PD-1/PD-L1 immunotherapy improves outcomes in patients with brain metastatic non-small cell lung cancer. METHODS: Records were searched electronically on MEDLINE, Embase and BIOSIS. Hazard ratios and their 95% confidence intervals for overall survival and progression free survival, and treatment-related adverse events data were extracted. Risk of bias was assessed in included studies using the Cochrane Collaboration's revised tool to assess risk of bias in randomized trials. RESULTS: PD-1/PD-L1 immunotherapy increased overall survival by 33% and progression free survival by 47% compared with chemotherapy. Two studies had a high risk of bias. Treatment-related adverse events were reported in 95%, 89% and 65% of patients receiving chemoimmunotherapy,chemotherapy and single agent immunotherapy, respectively. CONCLUSION: PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors alone or in addition to chemotherapy increase overall and progression free survival when compared with chemotherapy alone. Chemoimmunotherapy and chemotherapy patients experienced the most treatment-related adverse events.

Methodological review of NMA bias concepts provides groundwork for the development of a list of concepts for potential inclusion in a new risk of bias tool for network meta-analysis (RoB NMA Tool).

INTRODUCTION: Network meta-analyses (NMAs) have gained popularity and grown in number due to their ability to provide estimates of the comparative effectiveness of multiple treatments for the same condition. The aim of this study is to conduct a methodological review to compile a preliminary list of concepts related to bias in NMAs. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We included papers that present items related to bias, reporting or methodological quality, papers assessing the quality of NMAs, or method papers. We searched MEDLINE, the Cochrane Library and unpublished literature (up to July 2020). We extracted items related to bias in NMAs. An item was excluded if it related to general systematic review quality or bias and was included in currently available tools such as ROBIS or AMSTAR 2. We reworded items, typically structured as questions, into concepts (i.e. general notions). RESULTS: One hundred eighty-one articles were assessed in full text and 58 were included. Of these articles, 12 were tools, checklists or journal standards; 13 were guidance documents for NMAs; 27 were studies related to bias or NMA methods; and 6 were papers assessing the quality of NMAs. These studies yielded 99 items of which the majority related to general systematic review quality and biases and were therefore excluded. The 22 items we included were reworded into concepts specific to bias in NMAs. CONCLUSIONS: A list of 22 concepts was included. This list is not intended to be used to assess biases in NMAs, but to inform the development of items to be included in our tool.

HIGHLIGHTS: • Our research aimed to develop a preliminary list of concepts related to bias with the goal of developing the first tool for assessing the risk of bias in the results and conclusions of a network meta-analysis (NMA).• We followed the methodology proposed by Whiting (2017) and Sanderson (2007) for creating systematically developed lists of quality items, as a first step in the development of a risk of bias tool for network meta-analysis (RoB NMA Tool).• We included items related to biases in NMAs and excluded items that are equally applicable to all systematic reviews as they are covered by other tools (e.g. ROBIS, AMSTAR 2).• Fifty-seven studies were included generating 99 items, which when screened, yielded 22 included items. These items were then reworded into concepts in preparation for a Delphi process for further vetting by external experts.• A limitation of our study is the challenge in retrieving methods studies as methods collections are not regularly updated.

Meta-regression of genome-wide association studies to estimate age-varying genetic effects.

Fixed-effect meta-analysis has been used to summarize genetic effects on a phenotype across multiple Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS) assuming a common underlying genetic effect. Genetic effects may vary with age (or other characteristics), and not allowing for this in a GWAS might lead to bias. Meta-regression models between study heterogeneity and allows effect modification of the genetic effects to be explored. The aim of this study was to explore the use of meta-analysis and meta-regression for estimating age-varying genetic effects on phenotypes. With simulations we compared the performance of meta-regression to fixed-effect and random -effects meta-analyses in estimating (i) main genetic effects and (ii) age-varying genetic effects (SNP by age interactions) from multiple GWAS studies under a range of scenarios. We applied meta-regression on publicly available summary data to estimate the main and age-varying genetic effects of the FTO SNP rs9939609 on Body Mass Index (BMI). Fixed-effect and random-effects meta-analyses accurately estimated genetic effects when these did not change with age. Meta-regression accurately estimated both main genetic effects and age-varying genetic effects. When the number of studies or the age-diversity between studies was low, meta-regression had limited power. In the applied example, each additional minor allele (A) of rs9939609 was inversely associated with BMI at ages 0 to 3, and positively associated at ages 5.5 to 13. Our findings challenge the assumption that genetic effects are consistent across all ages and provide a method for exploring this. GWAS consortia should be encouraged to use meta-regression to explore age-varying genetic effects.

Heat impacts on human health in the Western Pacific Region: an umbrella review.

Background: High temperatures and heatwaves are occurring more frequently and lasting longer because of climate change. A synthesis of existing evidence of heat-related health impacts in the Western Pacific Region (WPR) is lacking. This review addresses this gap. Methods: The Scopus and PubMed databases were searched for reviews about heat impacts on mortality, cardiovascular morbidity, respiratory morbidity, dehydration and heat stroke, adverse birth outcomes, and sleep disturbance. The last search was conducted in February 2023 and only publications written in English were included. Primary studies and reviews that did not include specific WPR data were excluded. Data were extracted from 29 reviews. Findings: There is strong evidence of heat-related mortality in the WPR, with the evidence concentrating on high-income countries and China. Associations between heat and cardiovascular or respiratory morbidity are not robust. There is evidence of heat-related dehydration and stroke, and preterm and still births in high-income countries in the WPR. Some evidence of sleep disturbance from heat is found for Australia, Japan and China. Interpretation: Mortality is by far the most studied and robust health outcome of heat. Future research should focus on morbidity, and lower income countries in continental Asia and Pacific Island States, where there is little review-level evidence. Funding: Funded by the World Health Organization WPR Office.

The influence of climate change on mental health in populations of the western Pacific region: An umbrella scoping review.

The Western Pacific Region (WPR) is on the front line of climate change challenges. Understanding how these challenges affect the WPR populations' mental health is essential to design effective prevention and care policies. Thus, the present study conducted an umbrella scoping review that examined the influence of climate change on mental health in the WPR, using review articles as a source of information. Ten review articles were selected according to eligibility criteria, and the findings were synthesized according to the socio-economic status of the countries identified: Australia, the Republic of Korea, the Philippines, Vietnam, the Pacific Islands (broadly), and China. The findings revealed that each country and sub-region has its own unique profile of climate change-related challenges and vulnerable populations, highlighting the need for specific approaches to mental health care. Specifically, the influence of climate-related challenges differed according to populations' region (e.g., rural populations), demographic characteristics (e.g., age and gender), culture (e.g., traditional tights to land), and employment (e.g., farmers and fishers). The most frequently reported mental health outcomes in response to climate change-related challenges such as droughts, floods, storms, tornadoes, typhoons, and climate-related migration were the decline in mental well-being and the increase in post-traumatic stress disorder symptoms. In addition, using the GRADE framework for assessing the certainty of the findings, we identified that the number of articles discussing associations between a given climate change challenge and a mental health outcome was overall limited. Based on our findings and findings on a global scale, we identified several key research gaps in WPR and provided recommendations for future research and policy strategies.

Genomic landscape and actionable mutations of brain metastases derived from non-small cell lung cancer: A systematic review.

Background: Brain metastases derived from non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) represent a significant clinical problem. We aim to characterize the genomic landscape of brain metastases derived from NSCLC and assess clinical actionability. Methods: We searched Embase, MEDLINE, Web of Science, and BIOSIS from inception to 18/19 May 2022. We extracted information on patient demographics, smoking status, genomic data, matched primary NSCLC, and programmed cell death ligand 1 expression. Results: We found 72 included papers and data on 2346 patients. The most frequently mutated genes from our data were EGFR (n = 559), TP53 (n = 331), KRAS (n = 328), CDKN2A (n = 97), and STK11 (n = 72). Common missense mutations included EGFR L858R (n = 80) and KRAS G12C (n = 17). Brain metastases of ever versus never smokers had differing missense mutations in TP53 and EGFR, except for L858R and T790M in EGFR, which were seen in both subgroups. Of the top 10 frequently mutated genes that had primary NSCLC data, we found 37% of the specific mutations assessed to be discordant between the primary NSCLC and brain metastases. Conclusions: To our knowledge, this is the first systematic review to describe the genomic landscape of brain metastases derived from NSCLC. These results provide a comprehensive outline of frequently mutated genes and missense mutations that could be clinically actionable. These data also provide evidence of differing genomic landscapes between ever versus never smokers and primary NSCLC compared to the BM. This information could have important consequences for the selection and development of targeted drugs for these patients.

A new approach to evaluating loop inconsistency in network meta-analysis.

In network meta-analysis, studies evaluating multiple treatment comparisons are modeled simultaneously, and estimation is informed by a combination of direct and indirect evidence. Network meta-analysis relies on an assumption of consistency, meaning that direct and indirect evidence should agree for each treatment comparison. Here we propose new local and global tests for inconsistency and demonstrate their application to three example networks. Because inconsistency is a property of a loop of treatments in the network meta-analysis, we locate the local test in a loop. We define a model with one inconsistency parameter that can be interpreted as loop inconsistency. The model builds on the existing ideas of node-splitting and side-splitting in network meta-analysis. To provide a global test for inconsistency, we extend the model across multiple independent loops with one degree of freedom per loop. We develop a new algorithm for identifying independent loops within a network meta-analysis. Our proposed models handle treatments symmetrically, locate inconsistency in loops rather than in nodes or treatment comparisons, and are invariant to choice of reference treatment, making the results less dependent on model parameterization. For testing global inconsistency in network meta-analysis, our global model uses fewer degrees of freedom than the existing design-by-treatment interaction approach and has the potential to increase power. To illustrate our methods, we fit the models to three network meta-analyses varying in size and complexity. Local and global tests for inconsistency are performed and we demonstrate that the global model is invariant to choice of independent loops.

A narrative review of recent tools and innovations toward automating living systematic reviews and evidence syntheses.

Living reviews are an increasingly popular research paradigm. The purpose of a 'living' approach is to allow rapid collation, appraisal and synthesis of evolving evidence on an important research topic, enabling timely influence on patient care and public health policy. However, living reviews are time- and resource-intensive. The accumulation of new evidence and the possibility of developments within the review's research topic can introduce unique challenges into the living review workflow. To investigate the potential of software tools to support living systematic or rapid reviews, we present a narrative review informed by an examination of tools contained on the Systematic Review Toolbox website. We identified 11 tools with relevant functionalities and discuss the important features of these tools with respect to different steps of the living review workflow. Four tools (NestedKnowledge, SWIFT-ActiveScreener, DistillerSR, EPPI-Reviewer) covered multiple, successive steps of the review process, and the remaining tools addressed specific components of the workflow, including scoping and protocol formulation, reference retrieval, automated data extraction, write-up and dissemination of data. We identify several ways in which living reviews can be made more efficient and practical. Most of these focus on general workflow management, or automation through artificial intelligence and machine-learning, in the screening process. More sophisticated uses of automation mostly target living rapid reviews to increase the speed of production or evidence maps to broaden the scope of the map. We use a case study to highlight some of the barriers and challenges to incorporating tools into the living review workflow and processes. These include increased workload, the need for organisation, ensuring timely dissemination and challenges related to the development of bespoke automation tools to facilitate the review process. We describe how current end-user tools address these challenges, and which knowledge gaps remain that could be addressed by future tool development. Dedicated web presences for automatic dissemination of in-progress evidence updates, rather than solely relying on peer-reviewed journal publications, help to make the effort of a living evidence synthesis worthwhile. Despite offering basic living review functionalities, existing end-user tools could be further developed to be interoperable with other tools to support multiple workflow steps seamlessly, to address broader automatic evidence retrieval from a larger variety of sources, and to improve dissemination of evidence between review updates.

Immunogenicity and seroefficacy of 10-valent and 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines: a systematic review and network meta-analysis of individual participant data.

Background: Vaccination of infants with pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) is recommended by the World Health Organization. Evidence is mixed regarding the differences in immunogenicity and efficacy of the different pneumococcal vaccines. Methods: In this systematic-review and network meta-analysis, we searched the Cochrane Library, Embase, Global Health, Medline, clinicaltrials.gov and trialsearch.who.int up to February 17, 2023 with no language restrictions. Studies were eligible if they presented data comparing the immunogenicity of either PCV7, PCV10 or PCV13 in head-to-head randomised trials of young children under 2 years of age, and provided immunogenicity data for at least one time point after the primary vaccination series or the booster dose. Publication bias was assessed via Cochrane's Risk Of Bias due to Missing Evidence tool and comparison-adjusted funnel plots with Egger's test. Individual participant level data were requested from publication authors and/or relevant vaccine manufacturers. Outcomes included the geometric mean ratio (GMR) of serotype-specific IgG and the relative risk (RR) of seroinfection. Seroinfection was defined for each individual as a rise in antibody between the post-primary vaccination series time point and the booster dose, evidence of presumed subclinical infection. Seroefficacy was defined as the RR of seroinfection. We also estimated the relationship between the GMR of IgG one month after priming and the RR of seroinfection by the time of the booster dose. The protocol is registered with PROSPERO, ID CRD42019124580. Findings: 47 studies were eligible from 38 countries across six continents. 28 and 12 studies with data available were included in immunogenicity and seroefficacy analyses, respectively. GMRs comparing PCV13 vs PCV10 favoured PCV13 for serotypes 4, 9V, and 23F at 1 month after primary vaccination series, with 1.14- to 1.54- fold significantly higher IgG responses with PCV13. Risk of seroinfection prior to the time of booster dose was lower for PCV13 for serotype 4, 6B, 9V, 18C and 23F than for PCV10. Significant heterogeneity and inconsistency were present for most serotypes and for both outcomes. Two-fold higher antibody after primary vaccination was associated with a 54% decrease in risk of seroinfection (RR 0.46, 95% CI 0.23-0.96). Interpretation: Serotype-specific differences were found in immunogenicity and seroefficacy between PCV13 and PCV10. Higher antibody response after vaccination was associated with a lower risk of subsequent infection. These findings could be used to compare PCVs and optimise vaccination strategies. Funding: The NIHR Health Technology Assessment Programme.

Using Risk of Bias 2 to assess results from randomised controlled trials: guidance from Cochrane.

A systematic review identifies, appraises and synthesises all the empirical evidence from studies that meet prespecified eligibility criteria to answer a specific research question. As part of the appraisal, researchers use explicit methods to assess risk of bias in the results' from included studies that contribute to the review's findings, to improve our confidence in the review's conclusions. Randomised controlled trials included in Cochrane Reviews have used a specific risk of bias tool to assess these included studies since 2008. In 2019, a new version of this tool, Risk of Bias 2 (RoB 2), was launched to improve its usability and to reflect current understanding of how the causes of bias can influence study results. Cochrane implemented RoB 2 in a phased approach, with users of the tool informing guidance development. This paper highlights learning for all systematic reviewers (Cochrane and non-Cochrane) from the phased implementation, highlighting differences between the original version of the tool and RoB 2, consideration of reporting systematic review protocols or full review reports that have used RoB 2, and some tips shared by authors during the pilot phase of the implementation.

Statistical power in clinical trials of interventions for mood, anxiety, and psychotic disorders.

BACKGROUND: Previous research has suggested that statistical power is suboptimal in many biomedical disciplines, but it is unclear whether power is better in trials for particular interventions, disorders, or outcome types. We therefore performed a detailed examination of power in trials of psychotherapy, pharmacotherapy, and complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) for mood, anxiety, and psychotic disorders. METHODS: We extracted data from the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (Mental Health). We focused on continuous efficacy outcomes and estimated power to detect predetermined effect sizes (standardized mean difference [SMD] = 0.20-0.80, primary SMD = 0.40) and meta-analytic effect sizes (ESMA). We performed meta-regression to estimate the influence of including underpowered studies in meta-analyses. RESULTS: We included 256 reviews with 10 686 meta-analyses and 47 384 studies. Statistical power for continuous efficacy outcomes was very low across intervention and disorder types (overall median [IQR] power for SMD = 0.40: 0.32 [0.19-0.54]; for ESMA: 0.23 [0.09-0.58]), only reaching conventionally acceptable levels (80%) for SMD = 0.80. Median power to detect the ESMA was higher in treatment-as-usual (TAU)/waitlist-controlled (0.49-0.63) or placebo-controlled (0.12-0.38) trials than in trials comparing active treatments (0.07-0.13). Adequately-powered studies produced smaller effect sizes than underpowered studies (B = -0.06, p ⩽ 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Power to detect both predetermined and meta-analytic effect sizes in psychiatric trials was low across all interventions and disorders examined. Consistent with the presence of reporting bias, underpowered studies produced larger effect sizes than adequately-powered studies. These results emphasize the need to increase sample sizes and to reduce reporting bias against studies reporting null results to improve the reliability of the published literature.

Tools for assessing quality and risk of bias in Mendelian randomization studies: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: The use of Mendelian randomization (MR) in epidemiology has increased considerably in recent years, with a subsequent increase in systematic reviews of MR studies. We conducted a systematic review of tools designed for assessing risk of bias and/or quality of evidence in MR studies and a review of systematic reviews of MR studies. METHODS: We systematically searched MEDLINE, Embase, the Web of Science, preprints servers and Google Scholar for articles containing tools for assessing, conducting and/or reporting MR studies. We also searched for systematic reviews and protocols of systematic reviews of MR studies. From eligible articles we collected data on tool characteristics and content, as well as details of narrative description of bias assessment. RESULTS: Our searches retrieved 2464 records to screen, from which 14 tools, 35 systematic reviews and 38 protocols were included in our review. Seven tools were designed for assessing risk of bias/quality of evidence in MR studies and evaluation of their content revealed that all seven tools addressed the three core assumptions of instrumental variable analysis, violation of which can potentially introduce bias in MR analysis estimates. CONCLUSION: We present an overview of tools and methods to assess risk of bias/quality of evidence in MR analysis. Issues commonly addressed relate to the three standard assumptions of instrumental variables analyses, the choice of genetic instrument(s) and features of the population(s) from which the data are collected (particularly in two-sample MR), in addition to more traditional non-MR-specific epidemiological biases. The identified tools should be tested and validated for general use before recommendations can be made on their widespread use. Our findings should raise awareness about the importance of bias related to MR analysis and provide information that is useful for assessment of MR studies in the context of systematic reviews.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on presentations to health services following self-harm: systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Evidence on the impact of the pandemic on healthcare presentations for self-harm has accumulated rapidly. However, existing reviews do not include studies published beyond 2020. AIMS: To systematically review evidence on presentations to health services following self-harm during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHOD: A comprehensive search of databases (WHO COVID-19 database; Medline; medRxiv; Scopus; PsyRxiv; SocArXiv; bioRxiv; COVID-19 Open Research Dataset, PubMed) was conducted. Studies published from 1 January 2020 to 7 September 2021 were included. Study quality was assessed with a critical appraisal tool. RESULTS: Fifty-one studies were included: 57% (29/51) were rated as 'low' quality, 31% (16/51) as 'moderate' and 12% (6/51) as 'high-moderate'. Most evidence (84%, 43/51) was from high-income countries. A total of 47% (24/51) of studies reported reductions in presentation frequency, including all six rated as high-moderate quality, which reported reductions of 17-56%. Settings treating higher lethality self-harm were overrepresented among studies reporting increased demand. Two of the three higher-quality studies including study observation months from 2021 reported reductions in self-harm presentations. Evidence from 2021 suggests increased numbers of presentations among adolescents, particularly girls. CONCLUSIONS: Sustained reductions in numbers of self-harm presentations were seen into the first half of 2021, although this evidence is based on a relatively small number of higher-quality studies. Evidence from low- and middle-income countries is lacking. Increased numbers of presentations among adolescents, particularly girls, into 2021 is concerning. Findings may reflect changes in thresholds for help-seeking, use of alternative sources of support and variable effects of the pandemic across groups.

Does testosterone mediate the relationship between vitamin D and prostate cancer progression? A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PURPOSE: Observational studies and randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have shown an association between vitamin D levels and prostate cancer progression. However, evidence of direct causality is sparse and studies have not examined biological mechanisms, which can provide information on plausibility and strengthen the evidence for causality. METHODS: We used the World Cancer Research Fund International/University of Bristol two-stage framework for mechanistic systematic reviews. In stage one, both text mining of published literature and expert opinion identified testosterone as a plausible biological mechanism. In stage two, we performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the evidence from both human and animal studies examining the effect of vitamin D on testosterone, and testosterone on advanced prostate cancer (diagnostic Gleason score of ≥ 8, development of metastasis) or prostate cancer-specific mortality. RESULTS: A meta-analysis of ten human RCTs showed evidence of an effect of vitamin D on total testosterone (standardised mean difference (SMD) = 0.133, 95% CI = - 0.003-0.269, I2 = 0.0%, p = 0.056). Five human RCTs showed evidence of an effect of vitamin D on free testosterone (SMD = 0.173, 95% CI = - 0.104-0.450, I2 = 52.4%, p = 0.220). Three human cohort studies of testosterone on advanced prostate cancer or prostate cancer-specific mortality provided inconsistent results. In one study, higher levels of calculated free testosterone were positively associated with advanced prostate cancer or prostate cancer-specific mortality. In contrast, higher levels of dihydrotestosterone were associated with lowering prostate cancer-specific mortality in another study. No animal studies met the study eligibility criteria. CONCLUSION: There is some evidence that vitamin D increases levels of total and free testosterone, although the effect of testosterone levels within the normal range on prostate cancer progression is unclear. The role of testosterone as a mechanism between vitamin D and prostate cancer progression remains inconclusive.