Genetic relatedness reveals total population size of white sharks in eastern Australia and New Zealand.

Conservation concerns exist for many sharks but robust estimates of abundance are often lacking. Improving population status is a performance measure for species under conservation or recovery plans, yet the lack of data permitting estimation of population size means the efficacy of management actions can be difficult to assess, and achieving the goal of removing species from conservation listing challenging. For potentially dangerous species, like the white shark, balancing conservation and public safety demands is politically and socially complex, often leading to vigorous debate about their population status. This increases the need for robust information to inform policy decisions. We developed a novel method for estimating the total abundance of white sharks in eastern Australia and New Zealand using the genetic-relatedness of juveniles and applying a close-kin mark-recapture framework and demographic model. Estimated numbers of adults are small (ca. 280-650), as is total population size (ca. 2,500-6,750). However, estimates of survival probability are high for adults (over 90%), and fairly high for juveniles (around 73%). This represents the first direct estimate of total white shark abundance and survival calculated from data across both the spatial and temporal life-history of the animal and provides a pathway to estimate population trend.

A new method for estimating growth transition matrices.

The vast majority of population models work using age or stage not length but there are many cases where animals cannot be aged sensibly or accurately. For these cases length-based models form the logical alternative but there has been little work done to develop and compare different methods of estimating growth transition matrices to be used in such models. This article demonstrates how a consistent Bayesian framework for estimating growth parameters and a novel method for constructing length transition matrices accounts for variation in growth in a clear and consistent manner and avoids potential subjective choices required using more established methods. The inclusion of the resultant growth uncertainty in population assessment models and the potential impact on management decisions is also addressed.

Synchrony & chaos in patchy ecosystems.

The apparent synchronisation of spatially discrete populations is a well documented phenomenon. However, it is not clear what the governing mechanisms are for this synchrony, and whether they are robust over a range of environmental conditions and patch specific population dynamic behaviours. In this paper, we explore two (possibly interacting) modes of coupling, and investigate their theoretically discernible, and perhaps even experimentally measurable, signatures. To aid us in this investigation we employ a planktonic example system, with direct application to plankton patchiness. Furthermore, we address the role of chaos in complex spatio-temporal dynamics; we find that chaos associated with funnel attractors can play a distinguished role, over dynamics less sensitive to small variations, in being more susceptible to generalised synchronisation (such as phase synchronisation) in the presence of small local parameter variation. This is in contrast to the case for coupled systems with identical dynamics, and suggests that non-identically coupled systems are more vulnerable to global extinction events when exhibiting funnel-type chaotic dynamics.

Plankton lattices and the role of chaos in plankton patchiness.

Spatiotemporal and interspecies irregularities in planktonic populations have been widely observed. Much research into the drivers of such plankton patches has been initiated over the past few decades but only recently have the dynamics of the interacting patches themselves been considered. We take a coupled lattice approach to model continuous-in-time plankton patch dynamics, as opposed to the more common continuum type reaction-diffusion-advection model, because it potentially offers a broader scope of application and numerical study with relative ease. We show that nonsynchronous plankton patch dynamics (the discrete analog of spatiotemporal irregularity) arise quite naturally for patches whose underlying dynamics are chaotic. However, we also observe that for parameters in a neighborhood of the chaotic regime, smooth generalized synchronization of nonidentical patches is more readily supported which reduces the incidence of distinct patchiness. We demonstrate that simply associating the coupling strength with measurements of (effective) turbulent diffusivity results in a realistic critical length of the order of 100 km, above which one would expect to observe unsynchronized behavior. It is likely that this estimate of critical length may be reduced by a more exact interpretation of coupling in turbulent flows.

Plankton blooms induced by turbulent flows.

Plankton play an important role in the ecology of the ocean and the climate because of their participation in the global carbon cycle at the base of the food chain. However, damaging plankton blooms can sometimes occur and are initially characterized by sudden transient increases in the phytoplankton population. They are thought to be driven by several effects, such as seasonal variations in temperature and salinity, and nutrient mixing. Furthermore, phytoplankton and zooplankton have different buoyancy properties, leading to a differential response in turbulent environments. In this paper, we investigate this effect in a model of advected plankton dynamics. We find that, over a range of parameter values, flows of marine species subjected to inertial/viscous forces naturally lead to patchiness and, in turn, periodically sustained plankton blooms.