Impact of a standardised rapid response system on clinical outcomes of female patients: an interrupted time series approach.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to assess the impact of a standardised rapid response systems (the Between the Flags (BTF)) implemented across New South Wales (NSW), Australia, among female patients. METHODS: We conducted an interrupted time series (2007-2013) population-based linkage study including 5 114 170 female patient (≥18 years old) admissions in all 232 public hospitals in NSW. We studied changes in levels and trends of patient outcomes after BTF implementation among four age groups of female patients. RESULTS: Before the BTF system introduction (2007-2009), for the female patients as a whole, there was a progressive decrease in rates of in-hospital cardiopulmonary arrest (IHCA), IHCA-related mortality and hospital mortality for female patients. However, there were no changes in deaths in low-mortality diagnostic-related groups (DLMDRGs), IHCA survival to discharge and 1-year post-discharge mortality after surviving an IHCA. Only the female patients aged 55 years and older showed the same results as the whole sample. After the BTF programme (2010-2013), the same trends (except for DLMDRG) continued for female patients as a whole and for those aged 55 years or older. There was a significant reduction in DLMDRG among female patients aged 35-54 years (p<0.001), those aged 75 years and over (p<0.05) and female patients as a whole (p<0.05). The decreasing secular trend of surviving an IHCA to hospital discharge before the BTF system (p<0.05) among patients aged 18-34 years old was reversed after the BTF implementation (p<0.01). CONCLUSIONS: For female patients the BTF programme introduction was associated with continued reductions in the rates of IHCA, IHCA-related mortality and hospital mortality, as well as a new reduction in DLMDRG for 35-54 years old patients and those aged 75 years and older, and increased survival for those aged 18-34 years who had suffered an IHCA.

Understanding of advance care planning in primary care: a gap analysis.

BACKGROUND: Although primary care is a well suited context for conducting advance care planning (ACP), there are many barriers to initiating discussions regarding future health preference and end-of-life conversations. METHODS: This qualitative study conducted 30 detailed individual interviews with senior administrators, medical and nurse practitioners of a local health district, NSW Ambulance, e-Health NSW, general practitioners and practice nurses to find out about barriers to ACP in South Western Sydney. RESULTS: Thematic analysis was conducted on the interviews. Six major themes were identified: Prevalence; Empowerment of roles and responsibilities; Lack of training/knowledge/confidence; Fragmentation of care; Patient/family readiness; and Prognostication. Half of the participants were willing to use a prognostic tool to identify when a patient was likely to be at the end of their life and provide a prompt to initiate ACP. CONCLUSION: In addition to addressing training and acknowledging resource constraints, these findings suggest that if a prognostic tool was validated and practical in a primary care setting, it may provide valuable assistance to encourage everyone in society to begin discussing this issue and completing ACP.

How Do Patients with Life-Limiting Illness and Caregivers Want End-Of-Life Prognostic Information Delivered? A Pilot Study.

We aimed to identify the level of prognostic disclosure, type of prognostic information and delivery format of prognostic communication that older adults diagnosed with a life-limiting illness or caregivers prefer to receive. We developed and pilot tested an open-ended survey to 15 older patients and caregivers who had experience in health services for life-limiting illness either for a relative, friend or themselves. Five hypothetical clinical scenarios of prognostic options were presented to ascertain preferences. The preferred format to receive prognostic information was verbal delivery by the clinician with a written summary. Photos and videos were less favoured, and a table with numbers/percentages was least preferred. Distress levels to the prognostic scenarios were low, with the exception of a photo. We conclude that older patients/caregivers want end-of-life prognostic information delivered the traditional way, verbally by clinicians. Options to deliver prognostic information may vary across patient groups but empower clinicians in introducing end-of-life discussions with patients/caregivers. Our study illustrates the feasibility of involving terminal patients and caregivers in research that contributes to eliciting prognostic preferences. Further research is needed to understand whether the prognostic preferences of hospitalized patients with life-limiting illness differ.

Clinicians' and public acceptability of universal risk-of-death screening for older people in routine clinical practice in Australia: cross-sectional surveys.

BACKGROUND: Clinicians' delays to identify risk of death and communicate it to patients nearing the end of life contribute to health-related harm in health services worldwide. This study sought to ascertain doctors, nurses and senior members of the public's perceptions of the routine use of a screening tool to predict risk of death for older people. METHODS: Cross-sectional online, face-to-face and postal survey of 360 clinicians and 497 members of the public. RESULTS: Most (65.9%) of the members of the public welcomed (and 12.3% were indifferent to) the use of a screening tool as a decision guide to minimise overtreatment and errors from clinician assumptions. Supporters of the use of a prognostic tool were likely to be males with high social capital, chronically ill and who did not have an advance health directive. The majority of clinicians (75.6%) reported they were likely or very likely to use the tool, or might consider using it if convinced of its accuracy. A minority (13.3%) stated they preferred to rely on their clinical judgement and would be unlikely to use it. Differentials in support for tools by seniority were observed, with more support expressed by nurses, interns and registrars than medical specialists (χ2 = 12.95, p = 0.044) and by younger (< 40 years) clinicians (81.2% vs. 71.2%, p = 0.0058). DISCUSSION: The concept of integrating prognostication of death in routine practice was not resisted by either target group. CONCLUSION: Findings indicate that screening for risk of death is seen as potentially useful and suggests the readiness for a culture change. Future research on implementation strategies could be a step in the right direction.

Appropriateness of intensive care treatments near the end of life during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The patient and family perspective on the appropriateness of intensive care unit (ICU) treatments involves preferences, values and social constructs beyond medical criteria. The clinician's perception of inappropriateness is more reliant on clinical judgment. Earlier consultation with families before ICU admission and patient education on the outcomes of life-sustaining therapies may help reconcile these provider-patient disagreements. However, global emergencies like COVID-19 change the usual paradigm of end-of-life care, as it is a new disease with only scarce predictive information about it. Pandemics can also bring about the burdensome predicament of doctors having to make unwanted choices of rationing access to the ICU when demand for otherwise life-saving resources exceeds supply. Evidence-based prognostic checklists may guide treatment triage but the principles of shared decision-making are unchanged. Yet, they need to be altered with respect to COVID-19, defining likely outcomes and likelihood of benefit for the patient, and clarifying their willingness to take on the risks inherent to being in an ICU for 2 weeks for those eligible. For patients who are admitted during the prodrome of COVID-19 disease, or those who deteriorate in the second week, clinicians have some lead time in hospital to have appropriate discussions about ceilings of treatments offered based on severity. KEY POINTS: The patient and family perspective on inappropriateness of intensive care at the end of life often differs from the clinician's opinion due to the nonmedical frame of mind.To improve satisfaction with communication on treatment goals, consultation on patient values and inclusion of social constructs in addition to clinical prediction is a good start to reconcile differences between physician and health service users' viewpoints.During pandemics, where health systems may collapse, different admission criteria driven by the need to ration services may be warranted. EDUCATIONAL AIMS: To explore the extent to which older patients and their families are involved in decisions about appropriateness of intensive care admission or treatmentsTo understand how patients or their families define inappropriate intensive care admission or treatmentsTo reflect on the implications of decision to admit or not to admit to the intensive care unit in the face of acute resource shortages during a pandemic.

It is feasible to flag 'near end-of-life' status in older patients from routine general practice data.

METHOD: A retrospective chart review was used to assess the feasibility of identifying these indicators in the data (160,897 patients from 464 practices across Australia). Conditional logistic regression was used to assess the independent contribution of nEOL indicators in patients aged 75-84 and ≥85 years using a case-control design matching by practice. RESULTS: The strongest indicators for nEOL status were advanced malignancy, residential aged care, nutritional vulnerability, anaemia, cognitive impairment and heart failure. Other indicators included hospital attendance, pneumonia, decubitus ulcer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, antipsychotic prescription, male sex and stroke. DISCUSSION: Consideration of routinely collected patient data may suggest nEOL status and trigger advance care planning discussions.

Afferent limb failure revisited - A retrospective, international, multicentre, cohort study of delayed rapid response team calls.

AIM: The efficiency of rapid response teams (RRTs) is decreased by delays in activation of RRT (afferent limb failure, ALF). We categorized ALF by organ systems and investigated correlations with the vital signs subsequently observed by the RRT and associations with mortality. METHODS: International, multicentre, retrospective cohort study including adult RRT patients without treatment limitations in 2017-2018 in one Australian and two Finnish tertiary hospitals. RESULTS: A total of 5,568 RRT patients' first RRT activations were included. In 927 patients (17%) ALF was present within 4 h before the RRT call, most commonly for respiratory criteria (419 patients, 7.5%). In 3516 patients (63%) overall, and in 756 (82%) of ALF patients, the RRT observed abnormal vital signs upon arrival. The organ-specific ALF corresponded to the RRT observations in 52% of cases for respiratory criteria, in 60% for haemodynamic criteria, in 55% for neurological criteria and in 52% of cases for multiple organ criteria. Only ALF for respiratory criteria was associated with increased hospital mortality (OR 1.71, 95% CI 1.29-2.27), whereas all, except haemodynamic, criteria at the time of RRT review were associated with increased hospital mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Vital signs were rarely normal upon RRT arrival in patients with ALF, while organ-specific ALF corresponded to subsequent RRT observations in just over half of cases. Our results suggest that systems mandating timely responses to abnormal respiratory criteria in particular may have potential to improve deteriorating patient outcomes.

Feasibility of Using a Risk Assessment Tool to Predict Hospital Transfers or Death for Older People in Australian Residential Aged Care. A Retrospective Cohort Study.

Residents of Aged Care Facilities (RACF) experience burdensome hospital transfers in the last year of life, which may lead to aggressive and potentially inappropriate hospital treatments. Anticipating these transfers by identifying risk factors could encourage end-of-life discussions that may change decisions to transfer. The aim was to examine the feasibility of identifying an end-of-life risk profile among RACF residents using a predictive tool to better anticipate predictors of hospital transfers, death or poor composite outcome of hospitalisation and/or death after initial assessment. A retrospective cohort study of 373 permanent residents aged 65+ years was conducted using objective clinical factors from records in nine RACFs in metropolitan Sydney, Australia. In total, 26.8% died and 34.3% experienced a composite outcome. Cox proportional hazard regression models confirmed the feasibility of estimating the level of risk for death or a poor composite outcome. Knowing this should provide opportunities to initiate advance care planning in RACFs, facilitating decision making near the end of life. We conclude that the current structure of electronic RACF databases could be enhanced to enable comprehensive assessment of the risk of hospital re-attendance without admission. Automation tools to facilitate the risk score calculation may encourage the adoption of prediction checklists and evaluation of their association with hospital transfers.

A stepped-wedge randomised-controlled trial assessing the implementation, impact and costs of a prospective feedback loop to promote appropriate care and treatment for older patients in acute hospitals at the end of life: study protocol.

BACKGROUND: Hospitalisation rates for the older population have been increasing with end-of-life care becoming a more medicalised and costly experience. There is evidence that some of these patients received non-beneficial treatment during their final hospitalisation with a third of the non-beneficial treatment duration spent in intensive care units. This study aims to increase appropriate care and treatment decisions and pathways for older patients at the end of life in Australia. This study will implement and evaluate a prospective feedback loop and tailored clinical response intervention at three hospitals in Queensland, Australia. METHODS: A stepped-wedge cluster randomised trial will be conducted with up to 21 clinical teams in three acute hospitals over 70 weeks. The study involves clinical teams providing care to patients aged 75 years or older, who are prospectively identified to be at risk of non-beneficial treatment using two validated tools for detecting death and deterioration risks. The intervention's feedback loop will provide the teams with a summary of these patients' risk profiles as a stimulus for a tailored clinical response in the intervention phase. The Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research will be used to inform the intervention's implementation and process evaluation. The study will determine the impact of the intervention on patient outcomes related to appropriate care and treatment at the end of life in hospitals, as well as the associated healthcare resource use and costs. The primary outcome is the proportion of patients who are admitted to intensive care units. A process evaluation will be carried out to assess the implementation, mechanisms of impact, and contextual barriers and enablers of the intervention. DISCUSSION: This intervention is expected to have a positive impact on the care of older patients near the end of life, specifically to improve clinical decision-making about treatment pathways and what constitutes appropriate care for these patients. These will reduce the incidence of non-beneficial treatment, and improve the efficiency of hospital resources and quality of care. The process evaluation results will be useful to inform subsequent intervention implementation at other hospitals. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australia New Zealand Clinical Trial Registry (ANZCTR), ACTRN12619000675123p (approved 6 May 2019).

Impact of the Four-Hour Rule policy on emergency medical services delays in Australian EDs: a longitudinal cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Delayed handover of emergency medical services (EMS) patients to EDs is a major issue with hospital crowding considered a primary cause. We explore the impact of the 4-hour rule (the Policy) in Australia, focusing on ambulance and ED delays. METHODS: EMS (ambulance), ED and hospital data of adult patients presenting to 14 EDs from 2002 to 2013 in three jurisdictions were linked. Interrupted time series 'Before-and-After' trend analysis was used for assessing the Policy's impact. Random effects meta-regression analysis was examined for associations between ambulance delays and Policy-associated ED intake, throughput and output changes. RESULTS: Before the Policy, the proportion of ED ambulances delayed increased between 1.1% and 1.7% per quarter across jurisdictions. After Policy introduction, Western Australia's increasing trend continued but Queensland decreased by 5.1% per quarter. In New South Wales, ambulance delay decreased 7.1% in the first quarter after Policy introduction. ED intake (triage delay) improved only in New South Wales and Queensland. Each 1% ambulance delay reduction was significantly associated with a 0.91% reduction in triage delay (p=0.014) but not ED length of stay ≤4 hours (p=0.307) or access-block/boarding (p=0.605) suggesting only partial improvement in ambulance delay overall. CONCLUSION: The Policy was associated with reduced ambulance delays over time in Queensland and only the immediate period in New South Wales. Associations may be due to local jurisdictional initiatives to improve ambulance performance. Strategies to alleviate ambulance delay may need to focus on the ED intake component. These should be re-examined with longer periods of post-Policy data.

The effectiveness of a standardised rapid response system on the reduction of cardiopulmonary arrests and other adverse events among emergency surgical admissions.

AIM: A standardised rapid response system (RRS), called the "Between-the-Flags" (BTF) program, was implemented across a large health jurisdiction in Australia in 2010. The impact of RRS on emergency surgical admissions is unknown. METHODS: We linked the NSW Admitted Patient Data Collection (APDC) and the NSW Registry of Births, Deaths, and Marriages. We used a propensity score-based inverse-probability-weighting adjustment to estimated average treatment effects among treated subjects (prior-RRS hospitals vs prior-non-RRS hospitals) before the BTF implementation (2007-2008) and after (2010-2013). RESULTS: Before BTF, prior-RRS hospitals had a lower rate of in hospital cardiopulmonary arrests (IHCA) (4.7 vs 7.8 per 1000 admissions, P < 0.001), a lower rate of IHCA related deaths (3.0 vs 4.4 per 1000 admissions, P = 0.03) compared with patients in prior-non-RRS hospitals. There were no significant differences in overall in-hospital mortality and 30-day mortality between the two cohorts. After BTF, there were no significant differences for IHCA (4.8 vs 5.5 per 1000 admissions, P = 0.081) and related death rates (2.4 vs 2.3 per 1000 admissions, P = 0.678) between the two cohorts. Hospital mortality, 30-day mortality improved across both prior-RRS and prior-non-RRS hospitals following the BTF implementation. CONCLUSION: BTF program was associated with a significant reduction in IHCA and IHCA deaths for emergency surgical patients in prior-non-RRS hospitals but not in the prior-RRS hospitals. The overall hospital and 30-day mortality improved in both cohorts after BTF.

Are We Making Progress on Communication with People Who Are Near the End of Life in the Australian Health System? A Thematic Analysis.

Initiating end-of-life (EoL) discussions with patients is often delayed or avoided altogether by healthcare practitioners even in light of imminent death. This continues despite the availability of guidelines and conceptual frameworks on how to communicate prognoses at EoL. We surveyed healthcare practitioners to elicit their exposure to and confidence in EoL discussions and to better understand factors that enable or challenge the initiation of discussions in Australian healthcare settings. Thematic analysis identified that EoL discussions could be emotionally burdensome for healthcare practitioners but were regarded as valuable. Effective communications were challenged by conflict with families and between healthcare practitioners as to appropriate care goal transition, and by prognostic uncertainty. Communication skills appeared to be developed more from experience, and beneficial strategies such as role play and mentoring particularly for younger nurses and doctors were identified. Specific training in EoL communications should target undergraduates and new healthcare practitioners.

When a health policy cuts both ways: Impact of the National Emergency Access Target policy on staff and emergency department performance.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the impact of the Four-Hour Rule/National Emergency Access Target (4HR/NEAT) on staff and ED performance. METHODS: A mixed-methods study design was used to link performance data from 16 participating hospitals with the experiences reported by 119 ED staff during policy implementation. Quantitative and qualitative measures were triangulated to identify the staff and organisational effects on hospital performance. An overall score was developed to categorise hospitals into: high, moderate and low performers, then compared with four qualitative themes: social factors, ED management, ED outcomes and 4HR/NEAT compliance. RESULTS: Key factors identified were stress and morale; intergroup dynamics; interaction with patients; resource management; education and training; financial incentives; impact on quality and safety; perceived improvements on access block and overcrowding. High performing hospitals reported increased stress and decreased morale, decreased staff-patient communication and staff shortages; significant changes in ED management and effective use of the whole-of-hospital approach. Moderate performing hospitals reported similar characteristics to a lesser degree, and the perception that 4HR/NEAT did not impact ED practice. Low performing hospitals also reported increased stress and low morale and a less effective whole-of-hospital approach. ED staff also reported a reduction in communication with patients. CONCLUSIONS: There was strong evidence of an association between high stress and low morale and the implementation of the 4HR/NEAT across all levels of performance. These adverse consequences of the 4HR/NEAT implementation indicate that a more nuanced approach to efficiency improvements is required. This would balance processes measured by 4HR/NEAT against a range of other clinical and organisational performance measures.

Succeeding with rapid response systems - a never-ending process: A systematic review of how health-care professionals perceive facilitators and barriers within the limbs of the RRS.

BACKGROUND: Meta-analyses show that hospital rapid response systems (RRS) are associated with reduced rates of cardiorespiratory arrest and mortality. However, many RRS fail to provide appropriate outcomes. Thus an improved understanding of how to succeed with a RRS is crucial. By understanding the barriers and facilitators within the limbs of a RRS, these can be addressed. OBJECTIVE: To explore the barriers and facilitators within the limbs of a RRS as described by health-care professionals working within the system. METHODS: The electronic databases searched were: EMBASE, MEDLINE, CINAHL, Epistemonikos, Cochrane, PsychInfo and Web of Science. Search terms were related to RRS and their facilitators and barriers. Studies were appraised guided by the CASP tool. Twenty-one qualitative studies were identified and subjected to content analysis. RESULTS: Clear leadership, interprofessional trust and collaboration seems to be crucial for succeeding with a RRS. Clear protocols, feedback, continuous evaluation and interprofessional training were highlighted as facilitators. Reprimanding down the hierarchy, underestimating the importance of call-criteria, alarm fatigue and a lack of integration with other hospital systems were identified as barriers. CONCLUSION: To succeed with a RRS, the keys seem to lie in the administrative and quality improvement limbs. Clear leadership and continuous quality improvement provide the foundation for the continuing collaboration to manage deteriorating patients. Succeeding with a RRS is a never-ending process.

Dissonance on perceptions of end-of-life needs between health-care providers and members of the public: Quantitative cross-sectional surveys.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate views, determinants and barriers to end-of-life discussions for doctors, nurses and members of the public (MoP) and their acceptability of risk prediction tools. METHODS: Concurrent surveys of 360 doctors and nurses and 497 MoP. RESULTS: Sixty per cent of clinicians reported high confidence in initiating end-of-life discussions, and 55.8% regularly engaged in them. Barriers to end-of-life communication reported by clinicians were uncertainty on the likely time to death (44.7%) and family requests to withhold information from patients (44.2%). By contrast, most (92.8%) MoP wanted information about life expectancy; 89.9% wanted involvement in treatment decisions if the likelihood of death was high; and 23.8% already had an advance care directive. CONCLUSIONS: A dissonance exists between doctor/nurses perception of older peoples' preference for receiving prognostic information and the public desire for involvement in decision-making at the end of life. As public attitudes change, strategies for greater involvement of patients in shared end-of-life planning are warranted.

End-of-life priorities of older adults with terminal illness and caregivers: A qualitative consultation.

BACKGROUND: As older adults approach the end-of-life (EOL), many are faced with complex decisions including whether to use medical advances to prolong life. Limited information exists on the priorities of older adults at the EOL. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to explore patient and family experiences and identify factors deemed important to quality EOL care. METHOD: A descriptive qualitative study involving three focus group discussions (n = 18) and six in-depth interviews with older adults suffering from either a terminal condition and/or caregivers were conducted in NSW, Australia. Data were analysed thematically. RESULTS: Seven major themes were identified as follows: quality as a priority, sense of control, life on hold, need for health system support, being at home, talking about death and competent and caring health professionals. An underpinning priority throughout the seven themes was knowing and adhering to patient's wishes. CONCLUSION: Our study highlights that to better adhere to EOL patient's wishes a reorganization of care needs is required. The readiness of the health system to cater for this expectation is questionable as real choices may not be available in acute hospital settings. With an ageing population, a reorganization of care which influences the way we manage terminal patients is required.

Prospective Validation of a Checklist to Predict Short-term Death in Older Patients After Emergency Department Admission in Australia and Ireland.

BACKGROUND: Emergency departments (EDs) are pressured environment where patients with supportive and palliative care needs may not be identified. We aimed to test the predictive ability of the CriSTAL (Criteria for Screening and Triaging to Appropriate aLternative care) checklist to flag patients at risk of death within 3 months who may benefit from timely end-of-life discussions. METHODS: Prospective cohorts of >65-year-old patients admitted for at least one night via EDs in five Australian hospitals and one Irish hospital. Purpose-trained nurses and medical students screened for frailty using two instruments concurrently and completed the other risk factors on the CriSTAL tool at admission. Postdischarge telephone follow-up was used to determine survival status. Logistic regression and bootstrapping techniques were used to test the predictive accuracy of CriSTAL for death within 90 days of admission as primary outcome. Predictability of in-hospital death was the secondary outcome. RESULTS: A total of 1,182 patients, with median age 76 to 80 years (IRE-AUS), were included. The deceased had significantly higher mean CriSTAL with Australian mean of 8.1 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 7.7-8.6) versus 5.7 (95% CI = 5.1-6.2) and Irish mean of 7.7 (95% CI = 6.9-8.5) versus 5.7 (95% CI = 5.1-6.2). The model with Fried frailty score was optimal for the derivation (Australian) cohort but prediction with the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) was also good (areas under the receiver-operating characteristic [AUROC] = 0.825 and 0.81, respectively). Values for the validation (Irish) cohort were AUROC = 0.70 with Fried and 0.77 using CFS. A minimum of five of 29 variables were sufficient for accurate prediction, and a cut point of 7+ or 6+ depending on the cohort was strongly indicative of risk of death. The most significant independent predictor of short-term death in both cohorts was frailty, carrying a twofold risk of death. CriSTAL's accuracy for in-hospital death prediction was also good (AUROC = 0.795 and 0.81 in Australia and Ireland, respectively), with high specificity and negative predictive values. CONCLUSIONS: The modified CriSTAL tool (with CFS instead of Fried's frailty instrument) had good discriminant power to improve certainty of short-term mortality prediction in both health systems. The predictive ability of models is anticipated to help clinicians gain confidence in initiating earlier end-of-life discussions. The practicalities of embedding screening for risk of death in routine practice warrant further investigation.

Impact of the National Emergency Access Target policy on emergency departments' performance: A time-trend analysis for New South Wales, Australian Capital Territory and Queensland.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of the Australian National Emergency Access Target (NEAT) policy introduced in 2012 on ED performance. METHODS: A longitudinal cohort study of NEAT implementation using linked data, for 12 EDs across New South Wales (NSW), Australian Capital Territory (ACT) and Queensland (QLD) between 2008 and 2013. Segmented regression in a multi-level model was used to analyse ED performance over time before and after NEAT introduction. The main outcomes measures were ED length of stay ≤4 h, access block, number of ED presentations, short-stay admission (≤24 h), >24 h admissions, unplanned ED re-attendances within 7 days and 'left at own risk' (including 'did not wait for assessment'). RESULTS: Two years after NEAT introduction, ED length of stay ≤4 h increased in NSW and QLD (odds ratio [OR] = 2.48 and 3.24; P < 0.001) and access block decreased (OR = 0.41 and 0.22; P < 0.001), but not in ACT (OR = 1.28; P > 0.05). ED presentations increased over time before and after NEAT introduction with a significant increase above the projected trend in NSW after NEAT (mean ratio = 1.07). Short-stay admissions increased in QLD (OR = 2.60), ACT (OR = 1.68) and NSW (OR = 1.35). Unplanned ED re-attendances did not change significantly. Those who left at their own risk decreased significantly in NSW and QLD (OR = 0.38 and 0.67). CONCLUSION: ED presentations continued to increase over time in all jurisdictions. NSW and QLD, but not ACT, showed significant improvements in time-based measures. Significant increases in short-stay admissions suggest a strategic change in ED process associated with NEAT implementation. Rates of unplanned ED re-attendances and those leaving at their own risk showed no evidence for adverse effects from NEAT.

Impact of the four-hour National Emergency Access Target on 30 day mortality, access block and chronic emergency department overcrowding in Australian emergency departments.

OBJECTIVE: Previous research reported strong associations between ED overcrowding and mortality. We assessed the effect of the Four-Hour Rule (4HR) intervention (Western Australia (WA) 2009), then nationally rolled out as the National Emergency Access Target (Australia 2012) policy on mortality and patient flow. METHODS: A longitudinal cohort study of a population-wide 4HR, for 16 hospitals across WA, New South Wales (NSW), Australian Capital Territory (ACT) and Queensland (QLD). Mortality trends were analysed for 2-4 years before and after 4HR using interrupted time series technique. Main outcomes included the effect of 4HR on patient flow markers; admitted 30 day mortality trends; and patient flow marker performance during the study period. RESULTS: There were 40 281 deaths from 952 726 emergency admissions. All jurisdictions, except ACT, had improved flow and access block after 4HR. Age-standardised mortality was decreasing before the intervention. Post-intervention, WA had a significant reduction in mortality rate of -0.28 per 1000 patients per quarter (P = 0.040) while QLD had mixed results and NSW/ACT trends did not change significantly. Meta-regression of aggregated data for hospitals grouped on flow performances did not show significant mortality changes associated with the policy. CONCLUSIONS: The 4HR was introduced as a means of driving hospital performance by applying a time target. Patient flow improved, but the evidence for mortality benefit is controversial with improvement only in WA. Further research with more representative data from a larger number of hospitals over a longer time across Australia is needed to increase statistical power to detect long-term effects of the policy.