Geometric fluid approximation for general continuous-time Markov chains.

Fluid approximations have seen great success in approximating the macro-scale behaviour of Markov systems with a large number of discrete states. However, these methods rely on the continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) having a particular population structure which suggests a natural continuous state-space endowed with a dynamics for the approximating process. We construct here a general method based on spectral analysis of the transition matrix of the CTMC, without the need for a population structure. Specifically, we use the popular manifold learning method of diffusion maps to analyse the transition matrix as the operator of a hidden continuous process. An embedding of states in a continuous space is recovered, and the space is endowed with a drift vector field inferred via Gaussian process regression. In this manner, we construct an ordinary differential equation whose solution approximates the evolution of the CTMC mean, mapped onto the continuous space (known as the fluid limit).

Unbiased Bayesian inference for population Markov jump processes via random truncations.

We consider continuous time Markovian processes where populations of individual agents interact stochastically according to kinetic rules. Despite the increasing prominence of such models in fields ranging from biology to smart cities, Bayesian inference for such systems remains challenging, as these are continuous time, discrete state systems with potentially infinite state-space. Here we propose a novel efficient algorithm for joint state/parameter posterior sampling in population Markov Jump processes. We introduce a class of pseudo-marginal sampling algorithms based on a random truncation method which enables a principled treatment of infinite state spaces. Extensive evaluation on a number of benchmark models shows that this approach achieves considerable savings compared to state of the art methods, retaining accuracy and fast convergence. We also present results on a synthetic biology data set showing the potential for practical usefulness of our work.

A model of flux regulation in the cholesterol biosynthesis pathway: Immune mediated graduated flux reduction versus statin-like led stepped flux reduction.

The cholesterol biosynthesis pathway has recently been shown to play an important role in the innate immune response to viral infection with host protection occurring through a coordinate down regulation of the enzymes catalysing each metabolic step. In contrast, statin based drugs, which form the principle pharmaceutical agents for decreasing the activity of this pathway, target a single enzyme. Here, we build an ordinary differential equation model of the cholesterol biosynthesis pathway in order to investigate how the two regulatory strategies impact upon the behaviour of the pathway. We employ a modest set of assumptions: that the pathway operates away from saturation, that each metabolite is involved in multiple cellular interactions and that mRNA levels reflect enzyme concentrations. Using data taken from primary bone marrow derived macrophage cells infected with murine cytomegalovirus or treated with IFNγ, we show that, under these assumptions, coordinate down-regulation of enzyme activity imparts a graduated reduction in flux along the pathway. In contrast, modelling a statin-like treatment that achieves the same degree of down-regulation in cholesterol production, we show that this delivers a step change in flux along the pathway. The graduated reduction mediated by physiological coordinate regulation of multiple enzymes supports a mechanism that allows a greater level of specificity, altering cholesterol levels with less impact upon interactions branching from the pathway, than pharmacological step reductions. We argue that coordinate regulation is likely to show a long-term evolutionary advantage over single enzyme regulation. Finally, the results from our models have implications for future pharmaceutical therapies intended to target cholesterol production with greater specificity and fewer off target effects, suggesting that this can be achieved by mimicking the coordinated down-regulation observed in immunological responses.

Stochastic properties of the plant circadian clock.

Circadian clocks are gene regulatory networks whose role is to help the organisms to cope with variations in environmental conditions such as the day/night cycle. In this work, we explored the effects of molecular noise in single cells on the behaviour of the circadian clock in the plant model species Arabidopsis thaliana. The computational modelling language Bio-PEPA enabled us to give a stochastic interpretation of an existing deterministic model of the clock, and to easily compare the results obtained via stochastic simulation and via numerical solution of the deterministic model. First, the introduction of stochasticity in the model allowed us to estimate the unknown size of the system. Moreover, stochasticity improved the description of the available experimental data in several light conditions: noise-induced fluctuations yield a faster entrainment of the plant clock under certain photoperiods and are able to explain the experimentally observed dampening of the oscillations in plants under constant light conditions. The model predicts that the desynchronization between noisy oscillations in single cells contributes to the observed damped oscillations at the level of the cell population. Analysis of the phase, period and amplitude distributions under various light conditions demonstrated robust entrainment of the plant clock to light/dark cycles which closely matched the available experimental data.

Formal methods for checking the consistency of biological models.

Formal modeling approaches such as process algebras and Petri nets seek to provide insight into biological processes by using both symbolic and numerical methods to reveal the dynamics of the process under study. These formal approaches differ from classical methods of investigating the dynamics of the process through numerical integration of ODEs because they additionally provide alternative representations which are amenable to discrete-state analysis and logical reasoning. Backed by these additional analysis methods, formal modeling approaches have been able to identify errors in published and widely-cited biological models. This paper provides an introduction to these analysis methods, and explains the benefits which they can bring to ensuring the consistency of biological models.

Computational models in systems biology.

A report of the 6th International Conference on Computational Methods in Systems Biology, Rostock, Germany, 12-15 October 2008.