Using individual-based bioenergetic models to predict the aggregate effects of disturbance on populations: A case study with beaked whales and Navy sonar.

Anthropogenic activities can lead to changes in animal behavior. Predicting population consequences of these behavioral changes requires integrating short-term individual responses into models that forecast population dynamics across multiple generations. This is especially challenging for long-lived animals, because of the different time scales involved. Beaked whales are a group of deep-diving odontocete whales that respond behaviorally when exposed to military mid-frequency active sonar (MFAS), but the effect of these nonlethal responses on beaked whale populations is unknown. Population consequences of aggregate exposure to MFAS was assessed for two beaked whale populations that are regularly present on U.S. Navy training ranges where MFAS is frequently used. Our approach integrates a wide range of data sources, including telemetry data, information on spatial variation in habitat quality, passive acoustic data on the temporal pattern of sonar use and its relationship to beaked whale foraging activity, into an individual-based model with a dynamic bioenergetic module that governs individual life history. The predicted effect of disturbance from MFAS on population abundance ranged between population extinction to a slight increase in population abundance. These effects were driven by the interaction between the temporal pattern of MFAS use, baseline movement patterns, the spatial distribution of prey, the nature of beaked whale behavioral response to MFAS and the top-down impact of whale foraging on prey abundance. Based on these findings, we provide recommendations for monitoring of marine mammal populations and highlight key uncertainties to help guide future directions for assessing population impacts of nonlethal disturbance for these and other long-lived animals.

A simple DEB-based ecosystem model.

A minimum stoichiometric carbon and nitrogen model of an entire ecosystem based on Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory is presented. The ecosystem contains nutrients, producers, consumers, decomposers and detritus. All three living groups consist of somatic structure and either one (consumers and decomposers) or two (producers) reserve compartments, hence the living matter is described by seven state variables. Four types of detritus are distinguished. As the system is closed for matter, the dynamics of the nutrients carbon dioxide and ammonium follow automatically from the dynamics of the other 11 state variables. All DEB organisms in the model are V1-morphs, which means that surface area of each organism is proportional to volume. The resulting ontogenetic symmetry implies that complicated modelling of size structure is not required. The DEB V1-morph model is explained in detail, and the same holds for the idea of synthesizing units, which plays a key role in DEB modelling. First results of system dynamics are presented.

Density dependence can obscure nonlethal effects of disturbance on life history of medium-sized cetaceans.

Nonlethal disturbance of animals can cause behavioral and physiological changes that affect individual health status and vital rates, with potential consequences at the population level. Predicting these population effects remains a major challenge in ecology and conservation. Monitoring fitness-related traits may improve detection of upcoming population changes, but the extent to which individual traits are reliable indicators of disturbance exposure is not well understood, especially for populations regulated by density dependence. Here we study how density dependence affects a population's response to disturbance and modifies the disturbance effects on individual health and vital rates. We extend an energy budget model for a medium-sized cetacean (the long-finned pilot whale Globicephala melas) to an individual-based population model in which whales feed on a self-replenishing prey base and disturbance leads to cessation of feeding. In this coupled predator-prey system, the whale population is regulated through prey depletion and the onset of yearly repeating disturbances on the whale population at carrying capacity decreased population density and increased prey availability due to reduced top-down control. In populations faced with multiple days of continuous disturbance each year, female whales that were lactating their first calf experienced increased mortality due to depletion of energy stores. However, increased prey availability led to compensatory effects and resulted in a subsequent improvement of mean female body condition, mean age at first reproduction and higher age-specific reproductive output. These results indicate that prey-mediated density dependence can mask negative effects of disturbance on fitness-related traits and vital rates, a result with implications for the monitoring and management of marine mammal populations.

Propensity for Risk in Reproductive Strategy Affects Susceptibility to Anthropogenic Disturbance.

AbstractAnimals initiate, interrupt, or invest resources in reproduction in light of their physiology and the environment. The energetic risks entailed in an individual's reproductive strategy can influence the ability to cope with additional stressors, such as anthropogenic climate change and disturbance. To explore the trade-offs between internal state, external resource availability, and reproduction, we applied state-dependent life-history theory (SDLHT) to a dynamic energy budget (DEB) model for long-finned pilot whales (Globicephala melas). We investigated the reproductive strategies emerging from the interplay between fitness maximization and propensity to take energetic risks, as well as the resulting susceptibility of individual vital rates to disturbance. Without disturbance, facultative reproductive behavior from SDLHT and fixed rules in the DEB model led to comparable individual fitness. However, under disturbance, the reproductive strategies emerging from SDLHT increased vulnerability to energetic risks, resulting in lower fitness than fixed rules. These fragile strategies might therefore be unlikely to evolve in the first place. Heterogeneous resource availability favored more cautious (and thus more robust) strategies, particularly when knowledge of resource variation was accurate. Our results demonstrate that the assumptions regarding the dynamic trade-offs underlying an individual's decision-making can have important consequences for predicting the effects of anthropogenic stressors on wildlife populations.

Bio-energetic modeling of medium-sized cetaceans shows high sensitivity to disturbance in seasons of low resource supply.

Understanding the full scope of human impact on wildlife populations requires a framework to assess the population-level repercussions of nonlethal disturbance. The Population Consequences of Disturbance (PCoD) framework provides such an approach, by linking the effects of disturbance on the behavior and physiology of individuals to their population-level consequences. Bio-energetic models have been used as implementations of PCoD, as these integrate the behavioral and physiological state of an individual with the state of the environment, to mediate between disturbance and biological significant changes in vital rates (survival, growth, and reproduction). To assess which levels of disturbance lead to adverse effects on population growth rate requires a bio-energetic model that covers the complete life cycle of the organism under study. In a density-independent setting, the expected lifetime reproductive output of a single female can then be used to predict the level of disturbance that leads to population decline. Here, we present such a model for a medium-sized cetacean, the long-finned pilot whale (Globicephala melas). Disturbance is modeled as a yearly recurrent period of no resource feeding for the pilot whale female and her calf. Short periods of disturbance lead to the pre-weaned death of the first one or more calves of the young female. Higher disturbance levels also affect survival of calves produced later in the life of the female, in addition to degrading female survival. The level of disturbance that leads to a negative population growth rate strongly depends on the available resources in the environment. This has important repercussion for the timing of disturbance if resource availability fluctuates seasonally. The model predicts that pilot whales can tolerate on average three times longer periods of disturbance in seasons of high resource availability, compared to disturbance happening when resources are low. Although our model is specifically parameterized for pilot whales, it provides useful insights into the general consequences of nonlethal disturbance. If appropriate data on life history and energetics are available, it can be used to provide management advice for specific species or populations.

Evolution of size-dependent intraspecific competition predicts body size scaling of metabolic rate.

Growth in body size is accompanied by changes in foraging capacity and metabolic costs, which lead to changes in competitive ability during ontogeny. The resulting size-dependent competitive asymmetry influences population dynamics and community structure, but it is not clear whether natural selection leads to asymmetry in intraspecific competition.We address this question by using a size-structured consumer-resource model, in which the strength and direction of competitive asymmetry between different consumer individuals depends on the scaling of maximum ingestion and maintenance metabolism with consumer body size. We use adaptive dynamics to study selection on the scaling exponents of these processes.Selection leads to an identical scaling of maximum ingestion and maintenance metabolism with consumer body size. Equal scaling exponents neutralize strong competitive differences within the consumer population, because all consumer individuals require the same amount of resources to cover maintenance requirements. Furthermore, the scaling exponents respond adaptively to changes in mortality such that biomass production through growth or reproduction increases in the life stage that is subject to increased mortality. Also, decreasing size at birth leads to increased investment in juvenile growth, while increasing maximum size leads to increased investment in post-maturation growth and reproduction.These results provide an explanation for observed variation in the ontogenetic scaling of metabolic rate with body size. Data of teleost fish are presented that support these predictions. However, selection towards equal scaling exponents is contradicted by empirical findings, which suggests that additional ecological complexity beyond this basic consumer-resource interaction is required to understand the evolution of size-dependent asymmetry in intraspecific competition. A plain language summary is available for this article.

Cannibalism prevents evolutionary suicide of ontogenetic omnivores in life-history intraguild predation systems.

The majority of animal species are ontogenetic omnivores, that is, individuals of these species change or expand their diet during life. If small ontogenetic omnivores compete for a shared resource with their future prey, ecological persistence of ontogenetic omnivores can be hindered, although predation by large omnivores facilitates persistence. The coupling of developmental processes between different life stages might lead to a trade-off between competition early in life and predation later in life, especially for ontogenetic omnivores that lack metamorphosis. By using bioenergetic modeling, we study how such an ontogenetic trade-off affects ecological and evolutionary dynamics of ontogenetic omnivores. We find that selection toward increasing specialization of one life stage leads to evolutionary suicide of noncannibalistic ontogenetic omnivores, because it leads to a shift toward an alternative community state. Ontogenetic omnivores fail to re-invade this new state due to the maladaptiveness of the other life stage. Cannibalism stabilizes selection on the ontogenetic trade-off, prevents evolutionary suicide of ontogenetic omnivores, and promotes coexistence of omnivores with their prey. We outline how ecological and evolutionary persistence of ontogenetic omnivores depends on the type of diet change, cannibalism, and competitive hierarchy between omnivores and their prey.

Cannibalism and Intraguild Predation Community Dynamics: Coexistence, Competitive Exclusion, and the Loss of Alternative Stable States.

Predators often exert strong top-down regulation of prey, but in many systems, juvenile predators must compete with their future prey for a shared resource. In such life-history intraguild predation (LHIGP) systems, prey can therefore also regulate the recruitment and thus population dynamics of their predator via competition. Theory predicts that such stage-structured systems exhibit a wide range of dynamics, including alternative stable states. Here we show that cannibalism is an exceedingly common interaction within natural LHIGP systems that determines what coexistence states are possible. Using a modeling approach that simulates a range of ontogenetic diet shift scenarios along a productivity gradient, we demonstrate that only if the predator is competitively dominant can cannibalism promote coexistence by allowing prey to persist. If the prey is competitively dominant, cannibalism instead results in competitive exclusion of the predator and the loss of potential alternative stable states. Further, predator exclusion occurs at low cannibalistic preference relative to empirical estimates and is consistent across LHIGP systems in which the predator undergoes a complete diet shift or diet broadening over ontogeny. Given that prey is frequently competitively dominant in natural systems, our results demonstrate that even weak cannibalism can inhibit predator persistence, prompting exploration of mechanisms that reconcile theory with the common occurrence of such interactions in nature.

The Effect of Digestive Capacity on the Intake Rate of Toxic and Non-Toxic Prey in an Ecological Context.

Digestive capacity often limits food intake rate in animals. Many species can flexibly adjust digestive organ mass, enabling them to increase intake rate in times of increased energy requirement and/or scarcity of high-quality prey. However, some prey species are defended by secondary compounds, thereby forcing a toxin limitation on the forager's intake rate, a constraint that potentially cannot be alleviated by enlarging digestive capacity. Hence, physiological flexibility may have a differential effect on intake of different prey types, and consequently on dietary preferences. We tested this effect in red knots (Calidris canutus canutus), medium-sized migratory shorebirds that feed on hard-shelled, usually mollusc, prey. Because they ingest their prey whole and crush the shell in their gizzard, the intake rate of red knots is generally constrained by digestive capacity. However, one of their main prey, the bivalve Loripes lucinalis, imposes a toxin constraint due to its symbiosis with sulphide-oxidizing bacteria. We manipulated gizzard sizes of red knots through prolonged exposure to hard-shelled or soft foods. We then measured maximum intake rates of toxic Loripes versus a non-toxic bivalve, Dosinia isocardia. We found that intake of Dosinia exponentially increased with gizzard mass, confirming earlier results with non-toxic prey, whereas intake of Loripes was independent of gizzard mass. Using linear programming, we show that this leads to markedly different expected diet preferences in red knots that try to maximize energy intake rate with a small versus a large gizzard. Intra- and inter-individual variation in digestive capacity is found in many animal species. Hence, the here proposed functional link with individual differences in foraging decisions may be general. We emphasize the potential relevance of individual variation in physiology when studying trophic interactions.

Coexistence of predator and prey in intraguild predation systems with ontogenetic niche shifts.

In basic intraguild predation (IGP) systems, predators and prey also compete for a shared resource. Theory predicts that persistence of these systems is possible when intraguild prey is superior in competition and productivity is not too high. IGP often results from ontogenetic niche shifts, in which the diet of intraguild predators changes as a result of growth in body size (life-history omnivory). As a juvenile, a life-history omnivore competes with the species that becomes its prey later in life. Competition can hence limit growth of young predators, while adult predators can suppress consumers and therewith neutralize negative effects of competition. We formulate and analyze a stage-structured model that captures both basic IGP and life-history omnivory. The model predicts increasing coexistence of predators and consumers when resource use of stage-structured predators becomes more stage specific. This coexistence depends on adult predators requiring consumer biomass for reproduction and is less likely when consumers outcompete juvenile predators, in contrast to basic IGP. Therefore, coexistence occurs when predation structures the community and competition is negligible. Consequently, equilibrium patterns over productivity resemble those of three-species food chains. Life-history omnivory thus provides a mechanism that allows intraguild predators and prey to coexist over a wide range of resource productivity.