A global investment framework for the elimination of hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: More than 292 million people are living with hepatitis B worldwide and are at risk of death from cirrhosis and liver cancer. The World Health Organization (WHO) has set global targets for the elimination of viral hepatitis as a public health threat by 2030. However, current levels of global investment in viral hepatitis elimination programmes are insufficient to achieve these goals. METHODS: To catalyse political commitment and to encourage domestic and international financing, we used published modelling data and key stakeholder interviews to develop an investment framework to demonstrate the return on investment for viral hepatitis elimination. RESULTS: The framework utilises a public health approach to identify evidence-based national activities that reduce viral hepatitis-related morbidity and mortality, as well as international activities and critical enablers that allow countries to achieve maximum impact on health outcomes from their investments - in the context of the WHO's 2030 viral elimination targets. CONCLUSION: Focusing on hepatitis B, this health policy paper employs the investment framework to estimate the substantial economic benefits of investing in the elimination of hepatitis B and demonstrates how such investments could be cost saving by 2030. LAY SUMMARY: Hepatitis B infection is a major cause of death from liver disease and liver cancer globally. To reduce deaths from hepatitis B infection, we need more people to be tested and treated for hepatitis B. In this paper, we outline a framework of activities to reduce hepatitis B-related deaths and discuss ways in which governments could pay for them.

Additional resource needs for viral hepatitis elimination through universal health coverage: projections in 67 low-income and middle-income countries, 2016-30.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Assembly calls for elimination of viral hepatitis as a public health threat by 2030 (ie, -90% incidence and -65% mortality). However, WHO's 2017 cost projections to achieve health-related Sustainable Development Goals did not include the resources needed for hepatitis testing and treatment. We aimed to estimate the incremental commodity cost of adding scaled up interventions for testing and treatment of hepatitis to WHO's investment scenarios. METHODS: We added modelled costs for implementing WHO recommended hepatitis testing and treatment to the 2017 WHO cost projections. We quantified additional requirements for diagnostic tests, medicines, health workers' time, and programme support across 67 low-income and middle-income countries, from 2016-30. A progress scenario scaled up interventions and a more ambitious scenario was modelled to reach elimination by 2030. We used 2018 best available prices of diagnostics and generic medicines. We estimated total costs and the additional investment needed over the projection of the 2016 baseline cost. FINDINGS: The 67 countries considered included 230 million people living with hepatitis B virus (HBV) and 52 million people living with hepatitis C virus (HCV; 90% and 73% of the world's total, respectively). Under the progress scenario, 3250 million people (2400 million for HBV and 850 million for HCV) would be tested and 58·2 million people (24·1 million for HBV and 34·1 million for HCV) would be treated (total additional cost US$ 27·1 billion). Under the ambitious scenario, 11 631 million people (5502 million for HBV and 6129 million for HCV) would be tested and 93·8 million people (32·2 million for HBV and 61·6 million for HCV) would be treated (total additional cost $58·7 billion), averting 4·5 million premature deaths and leading to a gain of 51·5 million healthy life-years by 2030. However, if affordable HCV medicines remained inaccessible in 13 countries where medicine patents are protected, the additional cost of the ambitious scenario would increase to $118 billion. Hepatitis elimination would account for a 1·5% increase to the WHO ambitious health-care strengthening scenario costs, avert an additional 4·6% premature deaths, and add an additional 9·6% healthy life-years from 2016-30. INTERPRETATION: Access to affordable medicines in all countries will be key to reach hepatitis elimination. This study suggests that elimination is feasible in the context of universal health coverage. It points to commodities as key determinants for the overall price tag and to options for cost reduction strategies. FUNDING: WHO, United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Unitaid.

How far are we from viral hepatitis elimination service coverage targets?

INTRODUCTION: In 2016, the Global Health Sector Strategy (GHSS) on viral hepatitis called for elimination of viral hepatitis as a major public health threat by 2030 (i.e. 90% reduction in incidence and 65% in mortality). In 2017, WHO's first-ever Global Hepatitis Report presented the baseline values for each of the core indicators of the strategy. We review the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead in order to reach the 2030 service coverage targets. DISCUSSION: Three-dose coverage of hepatitis B vaccine in infancy reached 84% in 2015 (2030 target: 90%); however, only 39% received the timely birth dose (2030 target: 90%). Blood safety (97% of blood units screened with quality assurance, 2030 target: 100%) and injection safety (5% unsafe injections, 2030 target: 0%) had made substantial progress while harm reduction fell short (27 syringe and needle sets distributed per person who injects drugs per year, 2030 target: 300). Worldwide, 9% and 20% of the HBV- and HCV-infected population respectively, were aware of their status (2030 targets: 90%). In the short term, to reach the 2020 target of diagnosing 50% of those infected, 107 million HBV infected persons and 15 million HCV infected persons should be urgently diagnosed. Overall, in 2015, less than 10% of known infected persons were on HBV treatment or had started HCV treatment (2030 targets: 80%). CONCLUSIONS: The prevention component of elimination is on track with respect to hepatitis B vaccination, blood safety, and injection safety. However, coverage of the hepatitis B vaccine timely birth dose requires a substantial increase, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, and harm reduction needs to be taken to scale as injecting drug use accounts for a third of mortality from HCV infection. A promising but limited start in hepatitis testing and treatment needs to be followed by immediate and sustained action so that we reach the service coverage targets required to achieve elimination by 2030. Treating persons coinfected with HIV and hepatitis viruses is particularly urgent and needs to be promoted in the context of the HIV response.

The WHO public health approach to HIV treatment and care: looking back and looking ahead.

In 2006, WHO set forth its vision for a public health approach to delivering antiretroviral therapy. This approach has been broadly adopted in resource-poor settings and has provided the foundation for scaling up treatment to over 19·5 million people. There is a global commitment to end the AIDS epidemic as a public health threat by 2030 and, to support this goal, there are opportunities to adapt the public health approach to meet the ensuing challenges. These challenges include the need to improve identification of people with HIV infection through expanded approaches to testing; further simplify and improve treatment and laboratory monitoring; adapt the public health approach to concentrated epidemics; and link HIV testing, treatment, and care to HIV prevention. Implementation of these key public health principles will bring countries closer to the goals of controlling the HIV epidemic and providing universal health coverage.

The World Health Organization's Response to Emerging Human Immunodeficiency Virus Drug Resistance and a Call for Global Action.

The global community, including the World Health Organization (WHO), has committed to ending the AIDS epidemic and to ensuring that 90% of people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) are diagnosed, 90% start treatment, and 90% achieve and maintain virological suppression. The emergence of HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) as antiretroviral treatment programs expand could preclude the 90-90-90 targets adopted by the United Nations General Assembly at the High-Level Meeting on Ending AIDS from being achieved. The Global Action Plan on HIVDR is a call for collective action grounded on normative guidance providing a standardized and robust approach to monitoring, preventing, and responding to HIVDR over the next 5 years (2017-2021). WHO is committed to supporting country, global, regional, and national partners to implement and monitor the progress of the Global Action Plan. This article outlines the key components of WHO's strategy to tackle HIVDR and the role the organization takes in leading the global response to HIVDR.

Improving Retention in Care Among Pregnant Women and Mothers Living With HIV: Lessons From INSPIRE and Implications for Future WHO Guidance and Monitoring.

Identifying women living with HIV, initiating them on lifelong antiretroviral treatment (ART), and retaining them in care are among the important challenges facing this generation of health care managers and public health researchers. Implementation research attempts to solve a wide range of implementation problems by trying to understand and work within real-world conditions to find solutions that have a measureable impact on the outcomes of interest. Implementation research is distinct from clinical research in many ways yet demands similar standards of conceptual thinking and discipline to generate robust evidence that can be, to some extent, generalized to inform policy and service delivery. In 2011, the World Health Organization (WHO), with funding from Global Affairs Canada, began support to 6 implementation research projects in Malawi, Nigeria, and Zimbabwe. All focused on evaluating approaches for improving rates of retention in care among pregnant women and mothers living with HIV and ensuring their continuation of ART. This reflected the priority given by ministries of health, program implementers, and researchers in each country to the importance of women living with HIV returning to health facilities for routine care, adherence to ART, and improved health outcomes. Five of the studies were cluster randomized controlled trials, and 1 adopted a matched cohort design. Here, we summarize some of the main findings and key lessons learned. We also consider some of the broader implications, remaining knowledge gaps, and how implementation research is integral to, and essential for, global guideline development and to inform HIV/AIDS strategies.

Translating Technical Support Into Country Action: The Role of the Interagency Task Team on the Prevention and Treatment of HIV Infection in Pregnant Women, Mothers, and Children in the Global Plan Era.

While the Interagency Task Team on the Prevention and Treatment of HIV Infection in Pregnant Women, Mothers, and Children (IATT) partnership existed before the Global Plan Towards the Elimination of New HIV Infections Among Children by 2015 and Keeping Their Mothers Alive (Global Plan), its reconfiguration was critical to coordinating provision of technical assistance that positively influenced country decision-making and program performance. This article describes how the Global Plan anchored the work of the IATT and, in turn, how the IATT's technical assistance helped to accelerate achievement of the Global Plan targets and milestones. The technical assistance that will be discussed addressed a broad range of priority actions and milestones described in the Global Plan: (1) planning for and implementing Option B+; (2) strengthening monitoring and evaluation systems; (3) translating evidence into action and advocacy; and (4) promoting community engagement. This article also reviews the ongoing challenges and opportunities of providing technical assistance in a rapidly evolving environment that calls for ever more flexible and contextualized responses. The effectiveness of technical assistance facilitated by the IATT was defined by its timeliness, evidence base, and unique global perspective that built on the competencies of its partners and promoted synergies across program areas. Reaching the final goal of eliminating vertical transmission of HIV infection and achieving an AIDS-free generation in countries with the highest HIV burden requires that the IATT partnership and technical assistance remain responsive to country-specific needs while aligning with the current programmatic reality and new global goals such as the Sustainable Development Goals and 90-90-90 targets.

Monitoring HIV Treatment and the Health Sector Cascade: From Treatment Numbers to Impact.

Although not originally part of the MDGs, HIV treatment has been at the center of global HIV reporting since 2003, marked by achievement of the target of 15 million people receiving treatment before 2015 and 18.2 million (16.1-19.0 million) by mid 2016. Monitoring of treatment has been strengthened with harmonized partner reporting and accountability with regular, annual reports. Beyond treatment numbers, increasingly measures of treatment adherence, retention and outcomes have been reported though with varying quality and completeness. However, with the sustainable development goals (SDGs), monitoring treatment is changing in three important ways. First, treatment monitoring is shifting from numbers to coverage and gaps in a cascade of services to achieve universal access. Secondly, this requires greater emphasis on disaggregated, individual level patient and case monitoring systems, which can better support linkage, retention and chronic, long term care. Thirdly, the prevention, testing and treatment cascade with a clear results chain, links treatment numbers to impact, in terms of reduced viral load, mortality and incidence. This agenda will require a greater contribution of routine impact evaluation alongside monitoring, with treatment seen as part of a cascade of services to ensure impact on mortality and incidence. In conclusion, the shift from monitoring treatment numbers to treatment linked to universal access to prevention, testing and treatment and impact on mortality and incidence, will be critical to monitor, evaluate, and improve HIV programs as part of the SDGs.

Beyond the 90-90-90: refocusing HIV prevention as part of the global HIV response.

INTRODUCTION: The remarkable expansion in availability of antiretroviral therapy (ART) over the past two decades has transformed HIV infection into a manageable chronic condition. People with HIV infection now live long and healthy lives on treatment that is simpler, safer and cheaper. According to UNAIDS estimates, the global coverage of ART reached 46% in 2015, resulting in a 26% decrease in annual HIV-related deaths since 2010. Such success has positioned treatment access at the centre of the global HIV response as a way to prevent mortality, morbidity and HIV transmission through a "Treat All" approach. Continuing expansion of treatment is needed to further reduce HIV-related mortality. This progress with treatment, however, masks a stagnation in the estimated annual number of new HIV infections. Continuing levels of HIV incidence despite treatment scale-up stem from several factors, which should be addressed in order to prevent new infections and decrease the numbers of people requiring treatment in the future. DISCUSSION: ART can only reach those already diagnosed, and although it is unclear what proportion of new infections occur during acute and early infection prior to treatment initiation, phylogenetic studies suggest that it might be substantial. Thus, better testing approaches to reach the 40% of people with undiagnosed HIV infection as early as possible are critical. New approaches to reach men, young people and key populations, where HIV risk is highest and HIV prevention, testing and treatment coverage is lowest, are also needed. Overall coverage of effective prevention interventions remains low, enabling HIV transmission to occur, or time is required to show population-level effects. For example, the full impact of the medical male circumcision intervention will be seen once a larger proportion of men in age cohorts with high incidence are circumcised. Finally, strategically focused pre-exposure prophylaxis interventions have the potential to prevent HIV acquisition among populations at substantial risk, averting treatment costs in coming years. CONCLUSIONS: The United Nations (UN) targets to end AIDS include the "90-90-90" targets for HIV diagnosis, treatment and viral suppression. While 90-90-90 has been widely emphasized and adopted by countries and international funders, the focus thus far has largely been on increasing access to ART - the second "90." A similar emphasis on achieving UN HIV prevention targets and adequate funding for meeting these is essential, alongside treatment, in order to reduce population-level incidence and change the trajectory of the HIV epidemic over the long term.

The Strategic Use of Antiretrovirals to Prevent HIV Infection: A Converging Agenda.

There is a clear convergence toward an overarching strategic use of antiretroviral drugs to prevent human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. Four interventions-immediate antiretroviral therapy (ART) for the infected partner in a serodiscordant couple, preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP), prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT), and postexposure prophylaxis (PEP)-are all strongly recommended by the World Health Organization as effective ways to prevent HIV infection. For HIV-infected individuals, ART to protect an HIV-uninfected partner and PMTCT are both part of an expanding list of recommendations for starting ART immediately to both treat and prevent HIV infection. For HIV-uninfected individuals, PrEP and PEP are increasingly being seen as related interventions, and there are compelling reasons to consider the provision of PEP as a potential gateway to PrEP. The effectiveness of each of these interventions depends on overcoming barriers to seeking services, adequate community understanding and engagement, high levels of access and uptake of services including HIV testing and counselling, and high levels of adherence.

Simplification of antiviral hepatitis C virus therapy to support expanded access in resource-limited settings.

Currently, access to treatment for HCV is limited, with treatment rates lowest in the more resource-limited countries, including those countries with the highest prevalence. The use of oral DAAs has the potential to provide treatment at scale by offering opportunities to simplify drug regimens, laboratory requirements, and service delivery models. Key desirable characteristics of future HCV treatment regimens include high efficacy, tolerability, pan-genotype activity, short treatment duration, oral therapy, affordability, and availability as fixed-dose combination. Using such a regimen, HCV treatment delivery could be greatly simplified. Treatment could be initiated following confirmation of the presence of viraemia, with an initial assessment of the stage of liver disease. A combination DAA therapy that is safe and effective across genotypes could remove the need for genotyping and intermediary viral load assessments for response-guided therapy and reduce the need for adverse event monitoring. Simpler, safer, shorter therapy will also facilitate simplified service delivery, including task shifting, decentralization, and integration of treatment and care. The opportunity to scale up HCV treatment using such delivery approaches will depend on efforts needed to guarantee that the new DAAs are affordable in low-income settings. This will require the engagement of all stakeholders, ranging from the companies developing these new treatments, WHO and other international organizations, including procurement and funding mechanisms, governments and civil society.

Prices paid for adult and paediatric antiretroviral treatment by low- and middle-income countries in 2012: high, low or just right?

A viable market for antiretroviral drugs in low- and middle-income countries is key to the continued scale-up of antiretroviral treatment. We describe the price paid by low- and middle-income countries for 10 first- and 7 second-line adult and paediatric treatment regimens from 2003 to 2012, and compare the price of their finished formulations with the price of their active pharmaceutical ingredients in 2005, 2007, 2010 and 2012. Between 2003 and 2012 the median price of adult first-line treatment regimens per treatment-year decreased from USD499 to USD122, and that of second-line regimens from USD2,934 to USD497. In 2005 adult formulations were sold for a price 170% higher than the cost of their active pharmaceutical ingredients. This margin had decreased to 28% in 2012. Between 2004 and 2013, the price of paediatric treatment per treatment-year decreased from USD585 to USD147 for first-line and from USD763 to USD288 for second-line treatment. In 2005, paediatric treatment regimens were sold at a price 231% higher than the cost of their active pharmaceutical ingredients. This margin remained high and was 195% in 2012. The prices paid for antiretroviral drugs by low- and middle-income countries decreased between 2003 and 2012. Although the margins on their sale decreased, there is likely still space for price reduction, especially for the more recent World Health Organization recommended adult first-line regimens and for paediatric treatment.

Introducing INSPIRE: an implementation research collaboration between the Department of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development Canada and the World Health Organization.

The government of Canada, through the Department of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development (DFATD) has supported global efforts to reduce the impact of the HIV pandemic. In 2012, WHO and DFATD launched an implementation research initiative to increase access to interventions that were known to be effective in the prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV and to learn how these could be successfully integrated with other essential services for mothers and children. In addition to facilitating the implementation research projects, DFATD and WHO promoted four approaches: (1) Country-specific implementation research prioritization exercises, (2) Ministry of Health involvement, (3) Country-led, innovative, high-quality research, and (4) Leveraging regional networks and learning opportunities. While no single aspect of INSPIRE is unique, the process endeavors to promote and support high-quality, rigorous, locally-led implementation research that will have a substantial impact on the health and survival of HIV-infected women and their children.

Cost-effectiveness of different strategies to monitor adults on antiretroviral treatment: a combined analysis of three mathematical models.

BACKGROUND: WHO's 2013 revisions to its Consolidated Guidelines on antiretroviral drugs recommend routine viral load monitoring, rather than clinical or immunological monitoring, as the preferred monitoring approach on the basis of clinical evidence. However, HIV programmes in resource-limited settings require guidance on the most cost-effective use of resources in view of other competing priorities such as expansion of antiretroviral therapy coverage. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of alternative patient monitoring strategies. METHODS: We evaluated a range of monitoring strategies, including clinical, CD4 cell count, and viral load monitoring, alone and together, at different frequencies and with different criteria for switching to second-line therapies. We used three independently constructed and validated models simultaneously. We estimated costs on the basis of resource use projected in the models and associated unit costs; we quantified impact as disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted. We compared alternatives using incremental cost-effectiveness analysis. FINDINGS: All models show that clinical monitoring delivers significant benefit compared with a hypothetical baseline scenario with no monitoring or switching. Regular CD4 cell count monitoring confers a benefit over clinical monitoring alone, at an incremental cost that makes it affordable in more settings than viral load monitoring, which is currently more expensive. Viral load monitoring without CD4 cell count every 6-12 months provides the greatest reductions in morbidity and mortality, but incurs a high cost per DALY averted, resulting in lost opportunities to generate health gains if implemented instead of increasing antiretroviral therapy coverage or expanding antiretroviral therapy eligibility. INTERPRETATION: The priority for HIV programmes should be to expand antiretroviral therapy coverage, firstly at CD4 cell count lower than 350 cells per µL, and then at a CD4 cell count lower than 500 cells per µL, using lower-cost clinical or CD4 monitoring. At current costs, viral load monitoring should be considered only after high antiretroviral therapy coverage has been achieved. Point-of-care technologies and other factors reducing costs might make viral load monitoring more affordable in future. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, WHO.

The role of mathematical modelling in the development of recommendations in the 2013 WHO consolidated antiretroviral therapy guidelines.

Despite the exponential growth in the literature on modelling and simulation studies of impact and cost-effectiveness in different aspects of healthcare, there is no clear consensus on the appropriate role of modelling in the development of recommendations in clinical guidelines. This is compounded both by the lack of a standardised approach to assess the quality of modelling, and lack of clarity on its positioning within the GRADE (Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation) method for decision-making in the development of WHO guidelines, that considers both evidence from systematic reviews of randomized clinical trials (RTCs) or observational studies, together with stakeholder values and preferences, resource use, and feasibility issues. In the development of the 2013 WHO Consolidated Guidelines on the use of Antiretroviral drugs for treating and preventing HIV infection, a series of modelling projects were undertaken to inform the recommendations on eligibility criteria for ART initiation, and approaches to monitoring for treatment response. We report our experiences, challenges encountered, and several key considerations to guide the future use of modelling in the development of WHO guidelines. These are: (1) Transparency in the conduct and reporting of model inputs and results; (2) The need for agreed standards for critical appraisal and use of modelling data in healthcare policy making; (3) recognition that modelling of cost-effectiveness is only one component of decision-making in development of WHO recommendations and in priority-setting; (4) The need for closer interaction and an ongoing dialogue between modellers and model end-users or decision-makers; (5) the important role of WHO in convening and facilitating comparative assessment of multiple models; and (6) The need to optimize research and data collection to inform modelling studies.