Opioids and Injury Deaths: A population-based analysis of the United States from 2006 to 2017.

INTRODUCTION: In the United States, the opioid epidemic claims over 130 lives per day due to overdoses. While the use of opioids in trauma patients has been well-described in the literature, it is unknown whether prescription opioid use is associated with mortality after trauma. We hypothesized that legally obtained prescription opioid consumption would be positively associated with injury-related deaths in the United States. METHODS: Cross-sectional time-series data was compiled using state-level mortality data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Multiple Causes of Death database and prescription opioid shipping data to each state using the US Department of Justice Automated Reports and Consolidated Ordering System Retail Drug Summary reports from 2006 to 2017, with opioids shipped used as a proxy for local opioid consumption. Oxycodone and hydrocodone amounts were converted to morphine equivalent doses (MEDs). Our primary outcome was an association between MEDs and injury mortality rates at the state-level. We analyzed total injury-related deaths and subgroups of unintentional deaths, suicides, and homicides. We modeled the data using fixed effects regression to reduce bias from unmeasured differences between states. RESULTS: Data were available for all states and the District of Columbia. Opioid deliveries increased through 2012 and then declined. Total injury-related mortalities have been increasing steadily since 2012. Opioid MEDs did not show a consistent or statistically significant relationship with injury-related mortality, including with any subgroups of unintentional deaths, suicides, and homicides. CONCLUSION: In every state examined, there was no consistent relationship between the amount of prescription opioids delivered and total injury-related mortality or any subgroups, suggesting that there is not a direct association between prescription opioids and injury-related mortality. This is the first study to combine national mortality and opioid data to investigate the relationship between legally obtained opioids and injury-related mortality. The US opioid epidemic remains a significant challenge that requires ongoing attention from all stakeholders in our medical and public health systems.

Decision analysis supports the use of drain amylase-based enhanced recovery method after esophagectomy.

Postesophagectomy anastomotic leak is a common postsurgical complication. The current standard method of detecting leak is esophagram usually late in the postoperative period. Perianastomotic drain amylase level had shown promising results in early detection anastomosis leak. Previous studies have shown that postoperative day 4 amylase level is more specific and sensitive than esophagram. The purpose of this study is to determine if implementing a drain amylase-based screening method for anastomotic leak can reduce length of stay and hospital cost relative to a traditional esophagram-based pathway. The drain amylase protocol we propose uses postoperative day 4 drain amylase level to direct the initiation of PO intake and discharge. We designed a decision analysis tree using TreeAge Pro software to compare the drain amylase-based screening method to the standard of care, the esophagram. We performed a retrospective review of postesophagectomy patients from a tertiary academic medical center (University hospital Cleveland medical center) where amylase level was measured routinely postoperatively. The patients were separated into amylase-based pathway group and the standard of care group based on their postop management. The length of stay, costs, complications, and leak rate of these two groups were used to inform the decision analysis tree. In the base-case analysis, the decision analysis demonstrated that an amylase-based screening method can reduce the hospital stay by one day and reduced costs by ∼$3,000 compared to esophagram group. To take the variability of the data into consideration, we performed a Monte Carlo simulation. The result showed again a median saving of 0.71 days and ∼$2,500 per patient in hospital cost. A ballistic sensitivity analysis was performed to show that the sensitivity of postoperative day 4 amylase level in detecting a leak was the most important factor in the model. We conclude that implementing an amylase-based screening method for anastomotic leak in postesophagectomy patient can significantly reduce hospital cost and length of stay. This study demonstrates a novel protocol to improve postesophagectomy care. Based on this result, we believe a prospective multicenter study is appropriate.