RESUMO
Deciding who should receive a liver transplant (LT) depends on both urgency and utility. Most survival scores are validated through discriminative tests, which compare predicted outcomes between patients. Assessing post-transplant survival utility is not discriminate, but should be "calibrated" to be effective. There are currently no such calibrated models. We developed and validated a novel calibrated model to predict individual survival after LT for Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis (PSC). We applied a software tool, PSSP, to adult patients in the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (n = 2769) who received a LT for PSC between 2002 and 2013; this produced a model for predicting individual survival distributions for novel patients. We also developed an appropriate evaluation measure, D-calibration, to validate this model. The learned PSSP model showed an excellent D-calibration (p = 1.0), and passed the single-time calibration test (Hosmer-Lemeshow p-value of over 0.05) at 0.25, 1, 5 and 10 years. In contrast, the model based on traditional Cox regression showed worse calibration on long-term survival and failed at 10 years (Hosmer-Lemeshow p value = 0.027). The calculator and visualizer are available at: http://pssp.srv.ualberta.ca/calculator/liver_transplant_2002. In conclusion we present a new tool that accurately estimates individual post liver transplantation survival.
Assuntos
Colangite Esclerosante/mortalidade , Colangite Esclerosante/terapia , Transplante de Fígado/métodos , Adulto , Algoritmos , Feminino , Sobrevivência de Enxerto , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Modelos Teóricos , Prognóstico , Análise de Regressão , Software , Resultado do TratamentoRESUMO
This paper introduces an automatic brain tumor segmentation method (ABTS) for segmenting multiple components of brain tumor using four magnetic resonance image modalities. ABTS's four stages involve automatic histogram multi-thresholding and morphological operations including geodesic dilation. Our empirical results, on 16 real tumors, show that ABTS works very effectively, achieving a Dice accuracy compared to expert segmentation of 81% in segmenting edema and 85% in segmenting gross tumor volume (GTV).
