National treatment outcome and predictors of death and treatment failure in multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in Ethiopia: a 10-year retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Treatment success rate in patients treated for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is low, but predictors of treatment failure and death have been under-reported. Thus, we aimed to determine the national proportion of treatment success rate in the past 10 years and factors that predict treatment failure and death in patients with MDR-TB in Ethiopia. SETTING: A retrospective cohort study with a 10-years follow-up period was conducted in 42 MDR-TB treatment-initiating centres in Ethiopia. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 3395 adult patients with MDR-TB who had final treatment outcome and who were treated under national TB programme were included. Data were collected from clinical charts, registration books and laboratory reports. Competing risk survival analysis model with robust standard errors (SE) was used to determine the predictors of treatment failure and death. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOMES: Treatment outcome was a primary outcome whereas predictors of treatment failure and death were a secondary outcome. RESULTS: The proportion of treatment success was 75.7%, death rate was 12.8%, treatment failure was 1.7% and lost to follow-up was 9.7%. The significant predictors of death were older age (adjusted hazard ratio (AHR)=1.03; 95% CI 1.03 to 1.05; p<0.001), HIV infection (AHR=2.0; 95% CI 1.6 to 2.4; p<0.001) and presence of any grade of anaemia (AHR=1.7; 95% CI 1.4 to 2.0; p<0.001). Unlike the predictors of death, all variables included into multivariable model were not significantly associated with treatment failure. CONCLUSION: In the past 10 years, although MDR-TB treatment success in Ethiopia has been consistently favourable, the proportion of patients who died is still considerable. Death could be attributed to advanced age, HIV infection and anaemia. Prospective cohort studies are necessary to further explore the potentially modifiable predictors of treatment failure.

Prevalence of tuberculosis treatment non-adherence in Ethiopia: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Non-adherence to treatment is one of the challenges facing global tuberculosis (TB) control. In Ethiopia, an extremely variable and high magnitude of TB treatment non-adherence have been reported from different parts of the country. However, there has been no attempt to estimate the pooled prevalence of non-adherence from this heterogeneous data. To review the available literature and estimate the overall prevalence of treatment non-adherence among patients with TB on first-line treatment in Ethiopia. A systematic review and meta-analysis of published articles on TB treatment non-adherence. We included 26 studies, which contained data on 37 381 patients with TB. The crude prevalence of non-adherence reported by the studies included was extremely variable (range 0.2-35%). The overall pooled estimate of non-adherence prevalence was 10.0% (95%CI 8.0-11.0). The pooled prevalence of patients lost to follow-up alone was 5.0% (95%CI 4.0-6.0), while the pooled prevalence of intermittent non-adherence was 20.0% (95%CI 15.0-25.0). The rate of TB treatment non-adherence in Ethiopia remains too high to achieve target treatment success rates and prevent drug resistance. Implementing an effective patient retention scheme, along with the DOTS strategy, is critical to improving treatment adherence and preventing drug resistance. .

Predicting CCHF incidence and its related factors using time-series analysis in the southeast of Iran: comparison of SARIMA and Markov switching models.

Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is endemic in the southeast of Iran. This study aimed to predict the incidence of CCHF and its related factors and explore the possibility of developing an empirical forecast system using time-series analysis of 13 years' data. Data from 2000 to 2012 were obtained from the Health Centre of Zahedan University of Medical Sciences, Climate Organization and the Veterinary Organization in the southeast of Iran. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and Markov switching models (MSM) were performed to examine the potential related factors of CCHF outbreaks. These models showed that the mean temperature (°C), accumulated rainfall (mm), maximum relative humidity (%) and legal livestock importation from Pakistan (LIP) were significantly correlated with monthly incidence of CCHF in different lags (P < 0·05). The modelling fitness was checked with data from 2013. Model assessments indicated that the MSM had better predictive ability than the SARIMA model [MSM: root mean square error (RMSE) 0·625, Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) 266·33; SARIMA: RMSE 0·725, AIC 278·8]. This study shows the potential of climate indicators and LIP as predictive factors in modelling the occurrence of CCHF. Our results suggest that MSM provides more information on outbreak detection and can be a better predictive model compared to a SARIMA model for evaluation of the relationship between explanatory variables and the incidence of CCHF.

Malaria Status in Economic Cooperation Countries; Achievement and Gaps toward United Nations Millennium Development Goals.

BACKGROUND: Evaluating the malaria status of the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) member countries relation to goal 6 of 3rd Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) which includes have halted by 2015 and begun to reverse the incidence of malaria. METHODS: By 2009, we reviewed the MDGs reports, extracted the data from surveillance system, published, and unpublished data. The main stakeholders, from both governmental and international organizations in the country have been visited and interviewed by the research team as part of the data validation process. RESULTS: The malaria incidence is very heterogeneous among ECO countries, which differ less than 200 cases in total country in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Azerbaijan to 82,564 cases (2,428/100,000) in Afghanistan and 59,284 cases (881/100,000) in Pakistan and about 18/100,000 in Iran in 2008. Malaria has been a major public health problem in Pakistan and Afghanistan and will continue to pose serious threat to millions of people due to poor environmental and socioeconomic conditions conducive to the spread of disease. The main malaria endemic areas of Iran are in southeastern part of the country; consist of less developed provinces that are bordered in the east by Afghanistan and Pakistan. There are little valid information about proportion of population in malaria-risk areas using effective malaria prevention and treatment measures indicators. CONCLUSION: All ECO countries could achieve MDGs malaria indicators by 2015 except Pakistan and Afghanistan, unless preparing urgent intervention programs to fulfill the goals.

Knowledge and attitude toward Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever in occupationally at-risk Iranian healthcare workers.

We assessed the knowledge and attitude (K&A) toward Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) of occupationally at-risk healthcare workers (HCWs). A cross-sectional survey was performed in three referral hospitals in the Systan-Baluchestan and Isfahan provinces of Iran where CCHF is highly endemic. In all, 191/209 eligible HCWs were enrolled (response rate: 93%). All but 11 (5.8%) had heard of CCHF. The mean K&A scores of the respondents were 50.34% and 79.25%, respectively. The correlation between K&A was significant (correlation coefficient: 0.542; P<0.001). Being a physician, working in Isfahan (versus the relatively deprived Systan-Baluchestan) and relying on academic material rather than local media were independent factors significantly associated with more knowledge; higher education and laboratory staff with better attitude were also significant factors. Although HCWs showed the best K&A for preventive measures, only 44% wore gloves and masks for contact with CCHF patients and 22% failed to observe any safety measure. Those with a history of percutaneous contact (6.3%) had significantly lower knowledge scores (P=0.047). There is a need to establish professional education campaigns in highly endemic deprived areas in order to improve physicians' attitudes, encourage nurses' use of academic materials and increase the knowledge of less-educated HCWs.