Efficient use of longitudinal CD4 counts and viral load measures in survival analysis.

CD4 counts and viral loads are dynamic quantities that change with time in HIV-infected persons. Commonly used single summary measures, such as viral load set point or early CD4 count, do not explicitly account for changes in viral load or CD4 counts or other features of the overall time course of these measures. However, the efficient use of all repeated measurements within each subject is often a challenge made more difficult by sparse and irregular sampling over time. Here, we illustrate how functional principal component (FPC) analysis provides an effective statistical approach for exploiting the patterns in CD4 count and viral load data over time. We demonstrate the method by using data from Kenyan women who acquired HIV-1 during follow-up in a cohort that practices high-risk activities and were subsequently followed up prospectively from early infection. The FPC scores for each woman obtained using this method served as informative summary statistics for the CD4 count and viral load trajectories. Similar to baseline CD4 count or viral set point, the first FPC score can be interpreted as a single-value summary measure of an individual's overall CD4 count or viral load. However, unlike most single-value summaries of CD4 count or viral load trajectories, the first FPC score summarizes the dynamics of these quantities and is seen to reveal specific features of the trajectories associated with mortality in this cohort. Moreover, the FPC scores are shown to be a more powerful prognostic factor than other common summaries when used in survival analysis.

A comparison of methods for determining HIV viral set point.

During a course of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV-1) infection, the viral load usually increases sharply to a peak following infection and then drops rapidly to a steady state, where it remains until progression to AIDS. This steady state is often referred to as the viral set point. It is believed that the HIV viral set point results from an equilibrium between the HIV virus and immune response and is an important indicator of AIDS disease progression. In this paper, we analyze a real data set of viral loads measured before antiretroviral therapy is initiated, and propose two-phase regression models to utilize all available data to estimate the viral set point. The advantages of the proposed methods are illustrated by comparing them with two empirical methods, and the reason behind the improvement is also studied. Our results illustrate that for our data set, the viral load data are highly correlated and it is cost effective to estimate the viral set point based on one or two measurements obtained between 5 and 12 months after HIV infection. The utility and limitations of this recommendation will be discussed.

Incorporation of variability into the modeling of viral delays in HIV infection dynamics.

We consider classes of functional differential equation models which arise in attempts to describe temporal delays in HIV pathogenesis. In particular, we develop methods for incorporating arbitrary variability (i.e., general probability distributions) for these delays into systems that cannot readily be reduced to a finite number of coupled ordinary differential equations (as is done in the method of stages). We discuss modeling from first principles, introduce several classes of non-linear models (including discrete and distributed delays) and present a discussion of theoretical and computational approaches. We then use the resulting methodology to carry out simulations and perform parameter estimation calculations, fitting the models to a set of experimental data. Results obtained confirm the statistical significance of the presence of delays and the importance of including delays in validating mathematical models with experimental data. We also show that the models are quite sensitive to the mean of the distribution which describes the delay in viral production, whereas the variance of this distribution has relatively little impact.

Are US populations appropriate for trials of human immunodeficiency virus vaccine? The HIVNET Vaccine Preparedness Study.

Questions exist about whether testing of preventive human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 vaccines, which will require rapid recruitment and retention of cohorts with high HIV-1 seroincidence, is feasible in the United States. A prospective cohort study was conducted in 1995-1997 among 4,892 persons at high risk for HIV infection in nine US cities. At 18 months, with an 88% retention rate, 90 incident HIV-1 infections were observed (1.31/100 person-years (PY), 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.06, 1.61). HIV-1 seroincidence rates varied significantly by baseline eligibility criteria--1.55/100 PY among men who had sex with men, 0.38/100 PY among male intravenous drug users, 1.24/100 PY among female intravenous drug users, and 1.13/100 PY among women at heterosexual risk-and by enrollment site, from 0.48/100 PY to 2.18/100 PY. HIV-1 incidence was highest among those men who had sex with men who reported unprotected anal intercourse (2.01/100 PY, 95% CI: 1.54, 2.63), participants who were definitely willing to enroll in an HIV vaccine trial (1.96/100 PY, 95% CI: 1.41, 2.73), and women who used crack cocaine (1.62/100 PY, 95% CI: 0.92, 2.85). Therefore, cohorts with HIV-1 seroincidence rates appropriate for HIV-1 vaccine trials can be recruited, enrolled, and retained.

Anal sex among HIV-seronegative women at high risk of HIV exposure. The HIVNET Vaccine Preparedness Study 2 Protocol Team.

To assess the prevalence and the sociodemographic and behavioral correlates of anal sex in a cohort of HIV-seronegative U.S. women at high risk of HIV exposure, we administered a risk assessment using audio computer-assisted self-interview (A-CASI). Of 1268 sexually active women, 432 (32%) reported anal sex in the previous 6 months. Compared with women who did not report anal sex, those who did had more unprotected vaginal sex (median of 11 versus 7 episodes; p <. 001) and a higher proportion of unprotected sexual (vaginal plus anal) episodes (median of 0.90 versus 0.81; p =.01). Anal sex was reported by higher proportions of women who did not always use condoms, who used crack in the past year, who were