RESUMO
Objective To analyze the relationship between monthly average air temperature and monthly mortality rate among the elderly.Methods The death cause surveillance data between 2011 and 2013 of Yongkang City were used,and the monthly air temperature data was from Statistical Yearbooks published by Bureau of Statistics,and the population data was from the Yongkang public security bureau during this period.The scatter plot of the monthly average temperature and the mortality rate of the elderly were made.According to different causes of death,a linear regression analysis were used to analyze the relationship between the two variables.(The monthly mortality rate was the dependent variable and the monthly average temperature was the independent variable).Results There were negative correlation between the monthly air temperature and the mortality rate caused by circulatory disease(r =-0.884,P <0.001).There were negative correlation between the monthly air temperature and the mortality rate caused by respiratory disease.When the monthly air temperature was ≤15 ℃,and regression mode was Y = -6.399 X +186.813(Adjusted R2 =0.247).No obvious relationship between the monthly air temperature and the mortality rate caused by malignant tumor was observed(R2linear =0.006).Conclusion There is a certain relationship between monthly average air temperature and monthly mortality rate among the elderly. Health -care and nursing of the elderly should be strengthened when the temperature is low,especially for those aged over 80 years.
