Severe 21st-century ocean acidification in Antarctic Marine Protected Areas.

Antarctic coastal waters are home to several established or proposed Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) supporting exceptional biodiversity. Despite being threatened by anthropogenic climate change, uncertainties remain surrounding the future ocean acidification (OA) of these waters. Here we present 21st-century projections of OA in Antarctic MPAs under four emission scenarios using a high-resolution ocean-sea ice-biogeochemistry model with realistic ice-shelf geometry. By 2100, we project pH declines of up to 0.36 (total scale) for the top 200 m. Vigorous vertical mixing of anthropogenic carbon produces severe OA throughout the water column in coastal waters of proposed and existing MPAs. Consequently, end-of-century aragonite undersaturation is ubiquitous under the three highest emission scenarios. Given the cumulative threat to marine ecosystems by environmental change and activities such as fishing, our findings call for strong emission-mitigation efforts and further management strategies to reduce pressures on ecosystems, such as the continuation and expansion of Antarctic MPAs.

Abruptly attenuated carbon sequestration with Weddell Sea dense waters by 2100.

Antarctic Bottom Water formation, such as in the Weddell Sea, is an efficient vector for carbon sequestration on time scales of centuries. Possible changes in carbon sequestration under changing environmental conditions are unquantified to date, mainly due to difficulties in simulating the relevant processes on high-latitude continental shelves. Here, we use a model setup including both ice-shelf cavities and oceanic carbon cycling and demonstrate that by 2100, deep-ocean carbon accumulation in the southern Weddell Sea is abruptly attenuated to only 40% of the 1990s rate in a high-emission scenario, while the rate in the 2050s and 2080s is still 2.5-fold and 4-fold higher, respectively, than in the 1990s. Assessing deep-ocean carbon budgets and water mass transformations, we attribute this decline to an increased presence of modified Warm Deep Water on the southern Weddell Sea continental shelf, a 16% reduction in sea-ice formation, and a 79% increase in ice-shelf basal melt. Altogether, these changes lower the density and volume of newly formed bottom waters and reduce the associated carbon transport to the abyss.

Sea-ice derived meltwater stratification slows the biological carbon pump: results from continuous observations.

The ocean moderates the world's climate through absorption of heat and carbon, but how much carbon the ocean will continue to absorb remains unknown. The North Atlantic Ocean west (Baffin Bay/Labrador Sea) and east (Fram Strait/Greenland Sea) of Greenland features the most intense absorption of anthropogenic carbon globally; the biological carbon pump (BCP) contributes substantially. As Arctic sea-ice melts, the BCP changes, impacting global climate and other critical ocean attributes (e.g. biodiversity). Full understanding requires year-round observations across a range of ice conditions. Here we present such observations: autonomously collected Eulerian continuous 24-month time-series in Fram Strait. We show that, compared to ice-unaffected conditions, sea-ice derived meltwater stratification slows the BCP by 4 months, a shift from an export to a retention system, with measurable impacts on benthic communities. This has implications for ecosystem dynamics in the future warmer Arctic where the seasonal ice zone is expected to expand.

Winter weather controls net influx of atmospheric CO2 on the north-west European shelf.

Shelf seas play an important role in the global carbon cycle, absorbing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and exporting carbon (C) to the open ocean and sediments. The magnitude of these processes is poorly constrained, because observations are typically interpolated over multiple years. Here, we used 298500 observations of CO2 fugacity (fCO2) from a single year (2015), to estimate the net influx of atmospheric CO2 as 26.2 ± 4.7 Tg C yr-1 over the open NW European shelf. CO2 influx from the atmosphere was dominated by influx during winter as a consequence of high winds, despite a smaller, thermally-driven, air-sea fCO2 gradient compared to the larger, biologically-driven summer gradient. In order to understand this climate regulation service, we constructed a carbon-budget supplemented by data from the literature, where the NW European shelf is treated as a box with carbon entering and leaving the box. This budget showed that net C-burial was a small sink of 1.3 ± 3.1 Tg C yr-1, while CO2 efflux from estuaries to the atmosphere, removed the majority of river C-inputs. In contrast, the input from the Baltic Sea likely contributes to net export via the continental shelf pump and advection (34.4 ± 6.0 Tg C yr-1).

Reframing the carbon cycle of the subpolar Southern Ocean.

Global climate is critically sensitive to physical and biogeochemical dynamics in the subpolar Southern Ocean, since it is here that deep, carbon-rich layers of the world ocean outcrop and exchange carbon with the atmosphere. Here, we present evidence that the conventional framework for the subpolar Southern Ocean carbon cycle, which attributes a dominant role to the vertical overturning circulation and shelf-sea processes, fundamentally misrepresents the drivers of regional carbon uptake. Observations in the Weddell Gyre-a key representative region of the subpolar Southern Ocean-show that the rate of carbon uptake is set by an interplay between the Gyre's horizontal circulation and the remineralization at mid-depths of organic carbon sourced from biological production in the central gyre. These results demonstrate that reframing the carbon cycle of the subpolar Southern Ocean is an essential step to better define its role in past and future climate change.

The oceanic sink for anthropogenic CO2 from 1994 to 2007.

We quantify the oceanic sink for anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) over the period 1994 to 2007 by using observations from the global repeat hydrography program and contrasting them to observations from the 1990s. Using a linear regression-based method, we find a global increase in the anthropogenic CO2 inventory of 34 ± 4 petagrams of carbon (Pg C) between 1994 and 2007. This is equivalent to an average uptake rate of 2.6 ± 0.3 Pg C year-1 and represents 31 ± 4% of the global anthropogenic CO2 emissions over this period. Although this global ocean sink estimate is consistent with the expectation of the ocean uptake having increased in proportion to the rise in atmospheric CO2, substantial regional differences in storage rate are found, likely owing to climate variability-driven changes in ocean circulation.

The reinvigoration of the Southern Ocean carbon sink.

Several studies have suggested that the carbon sink in the Southern Ocean-the ocean's strongest region for the uptake of anthropogenic CO2 -has weakened in recent decades. We demonstrated, on the basis of multidecadal analyses of surface ocean CO2 observations, that this weakening trend stopped around 2002, and by 2012, the Southern Ocean had regained its expected strength based on the growth of atmospheric CO2. All three Southern Ocean sectors have contributed to this reinvigoration of the carbon sink, yet differences in the processes between sectors exist, related to a tendency toward a zonally more asymmetric atmospheric circulation. The large decadal variations in the Southern Ocean carbon sink suggest a rather dynamic ocean carbon cycle that varies more in time than previously recognized.

Rapid invasion of anthropogenic CO2 into the deep circulation of the Weddell Gyre.

Data are presented for total carbon dioxide (TCO2), oxygen and nutrients from 14 cruises covering two repeat sections across the Weddell Gyre, from 1973 to 2010. Assessments of the rate of increase in anthropogenic CO2 (Cant) are made at three locations. Along the Prime Meridian, TCO2 is observed to steadily increase in the bottom water. Accompanying changes in silicate, nitrate and oxygen confirm the non-steady state of the Weddell circulation. The rate of increase in TCO2 of +0.12±0.05 µmol kg(-1) yr(-1) therefore poses an upper limit to the rate of increase in Cant. By contrast, the bottom water located in the central Weddell Sea exhibits no significant increase in TCO2, suggesting that this water is less well ventilated at the southern margins of the Weddell Sea. At the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula (i.e. the formation region of the bottom water found at the Prime Meridian), the high rate of increase in TCO2 over time observed at the lowest temperatures suggests that nearly full equilibration occurs with the anthropogenic CO2 of the atmosphere. This observation constitutes rare evidence for the possibility that ice cover is not a major impediment for uptake of Cant in this prominent deep water formation region.