Economic aspects of the control of classical swine fever outbreaks in the European Union.

A framework for assessing the economic impact of classical swine fever (CSF) is presented, including an analysis of direct and indirect costs. Direct costs are divided into calculated costs, expenditure on control measures (payable costs) and costs due to financial transfers. The economic impact of current control strategies is described using practical examples. In most cases, the largest part of the direct costs is associated with transport standstill measures, of which approximately 45% are calculated costs. Alternative strategies, still based on non-vaccination offer a potential for reducing these costs. Various economic aspects of emergency vaccination are described using as an example, a hypothetical optimistic CSF case. In order to explore the impact of applying emergency vaccination using marker vaccines, additional research is required using simulation modelling. This research should include an assessment of risk and uncertainty with respect to calculating the epidemiological impact and the direct costs.

The economic evaluation of control and eradication of epidemic livestock diseases.

Many countries have implemented strategies to control and eradicate epidemic diseases. These strategies are usually based on either stamping-out or routine vaccination, sometimes complemented by emergency vaccination. The authors describe these strategies, using examples to illustrate each one. The economic evaluation of control and eradication of epidemic diseases is a complex matter. The authors provide further insight into this area by describing the various elements involved in both the 'non-outbreak periods' and the 'outbreak periods'. In addition, a system of categorisation of the direct costs and consequential losses is suggested for the calculation of costs and losses incurred by outbreaks. The economic impact of epidemic diseases on farmers and the livestock sector as a whole differs; these differences may be influenced by the control and eradication strategies applied. An attempt is made to provide a basic framework for economic evaluation on various economic levels.

The economic impact of foot and mouth disease and its control in South-East Asia: a preliminary assessment with special reference to Thailand.

A pilot study of the economic impact of foot and mouth disease (FMD) in the countries and region of South-East Asia is described. Previous economic impact assessments are reviewed and summarised and a synthesis of these contributions is constructed. A framework for the future economic impact of the disease is then developed, incorporating analyses at the sectoral (production system), national and regional levels. Data requirements for such studies are also identified. Integrated epidemiological and economic models for impact assessment were developed and applied to the case study country of Thailand. The models were used to evaluate the economic viability of FMD control programmes in the country. Scenarios evaluated include the effect of improving vaccination coverage and thus reducing productivity losses, and the effect of eventual eradication of the disease. The results indicate that economic returns to the high expenditures incurred in FMD control could be achieved in the short term if greater international trade in pork products was made possible and export prices higher than those in the domestic market could be attained. If FMD were to be eradicated from Thailand in 2010, the eradication would be economically viable, even without exports, with a predicted benefit-cost ratio of 3.73. With additional exports, the economic justification for control becomes much stronger with a benefit-cost ratio of up to 15:1 being achieved. If eradication is not achieved until 2020, returns remain positive without exports, but at a lower rate. The authors propose that the integrated epidemiological and economic models developed be applied to other countries of the region to gain a more accurate insight into the future benefits of FMD control and eradication in the region.

Monte Carlo simulation of virus introduction into the Netherlands.

In order to improve the understanding of the risk of introducing classical swine fever (CSF) and foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) into the Netherlands, a Monte Carlo simulation model was developed. The model, VIRiS (Virus Introduction Risk Simulation model) describes virus introduction into the Netherlands from outbreaks in other European countries. VIRiS is aimed at supporting decision makers involved in disease prevention. The model is based on historical and experimental data, supplemented with expert judgement, and provides the expected number, location and cause of primary outbreaks in the Netherlands. The paper gives a detailed description of the design and behaviour of VIRiS. The default outcomes of VIRiS show that in the current situation, the western and northern regions of the Netherlands are most prone to outbreaks of CSF and FMD. Most outbreaks originate from the countries neighbouring the Netherlands and the countries of southern Europe. Several alternative prevention strategies were evaluated using a combination of the VIRiS model and models describing the spread and economic consequences of outbreaks. A considerable financial window is available for measures aimed at speeding up the detection of epidemics in countries from which a Dutch outbreak may originate. Complete elimination of the risk associated with the risk factor 'returning trucks' reduces the annual losses due to FMD and CSF epidemics by approximately US$ 9 million. The approach is general and could also be applied to other diseases and countries.

The involvement of the agriculture industry and government in animal disease emergencies and the funding of compensation in western Europe.

In Western Europe, the control and eradication of contagious animal diseases have always been subject to government legislation. In the event of an outbreak, the principal policy is 'stamping-out' (depopulation) of the infected herd. The owner of the herd is usually awarded financial compensation. The authors provide an overview of the involvement of the agriculture industry and government in animal disease emergencies and the funding of compensation in Western Europe. In particular, developments within the European Union are described, as illustrated by a case study in the Netherlands. The economic consequences of a widespread epidemic of classical swine fever (hog cholera) in the Netherlands in 1997 are described. Evaluation of the epidemic demonstrated that special emphasis needs to be placed on factors such as the high-risk period, animal movement, the attitude of farmers towards risk and the structure of compensation. Epidemic disease insurance schemes are considered to be a possible alternative in alleviating certain financial losses caused by disease outbreaks.

[Risk increase and economic consequences of the introduction of contagious animal diseases in the Netherlands]. / Risico's op en economische gevolgen van insleep van besmettelijke dierziekten in Nederland.

The paper describes the development of the Monte Carlo simulation model VIRiS (Virus Introduction Risk Simulation) and the results obtained with this model. VIRiS simulates the introduction of Classical Swine Fever (CSF) and Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) into the Netherlands. The model is based on objective information (research, databases), complemented by expert knowledge. Various questionnaire techniques (Conjoint Analysis, ELI) were used in order to elicit the experts' estimates in an objective and quantitative way. VIRiS provides information on the number of primary outbreaks in a certain period, their geographic location, causative risk factor, and causative country (or region). The information provided by VIRiS in combination with the outcome of models describing the spread and economic consequences of epidemics provides a tool that can be used to evaluate prevention strategies for their ability to reduce annual losses due to outbreaks.

Risks and economic consequences of introducing classical swine fever into The Netherlands by feeding swill to swine.

An effective animal disease prevention and eradication programme is of great importance for meat-exporting countries such as the Netherlands. If a serious outbreak of disease were to occur, the eradication measures required by the European Union and a possible ban on meat exports would have severe economic consequences. However, historical and experimental information on which these programmes can be based is scarce. Furthermore, until recently, an integrated approach which combined the various aspects of outbreaks and risks with economic consequences was lacking. This paper describes a project based on such an integrated approach. The project covered the elicitation of expert knowledge and the development of the virus introduction risk simulation model (VIRiS). VIRiS integrates objective and subjective information concerning risks and consequences of virus introduction, and thus presents policy-makers with a useful tool for the evaluation of existing prevention programmes and possible alternatives. VIRiS is illustrated for classical swine fever. A comparison is made between the current situation and a hypothetical situation where the risk factor 'swill feeding' is completely eliminated.

Interaction of age and month of calving with year of calving for production traits of Ontario Holsteins.

Production records of 835,789 Ontario Holsteins calving between 1958 and 1990 were used to determine the presence of an interaction of the age and month of calving of cows with the year of calving for production of milk and fat and fat percentage. An animal model was employed including the effects of herd-year-season of calving, interaction of age and month of calving with year of calving, animal additive genetic effects, and permanent environmental effects. Tests for interactions of age with year within months of calving were significant for production of milk and fat, but not for fat percentage. Tests for interactions of month with year within age groups were significant for only a few age groups in the second and third parties. The implication of these findings on genetic evaluation is that an interaction of age and month of calving with year of calving should be included in the animal model for genetic evaluations rather than preadjusting production for age and month of calving.