Modeling stabilizing the of orchard managers on the shores of Lake Urmia against late spring frost / Modelo de estabilização dos meios de subsistência dos pomares nas margens do Lago Urmia contra as geadas do final da primavera

Despite the adverse effects of late spring frost on the ecological and economic impact on agriculture, the management of these events are poorly investigated. Therefore, the grounded theory was used for extracting the livelihood stabilization model of orchardists on the shores of Lake Urmia against late spring frosts. The statistical population of this study in the qualitative part included 22 experts in the field of horticulture. In the quantitative study, they included all orchardists in the villages along with Lake Urmia, comprising 341 people, of which 236 were randomly selected. By carefully examining and linking the concepts and subcategories, the most important subcategories that were included six subcategories. The results of all calculated goodness-of-fit indexes (chi-square [P > 0.01], RMSEA = 0.000, NFI = 0.95, CFI = 0.91, and GFI = 0.92) showed the model provided an excellent fit for the data. Standardized regression coefficients showed that interfering factors had the greatest impact on the livelihood of orchardists against late spring frosts (ß = 0.47). Also, the background factors (ß = 0.43) and causal factors (ß = 0.39) were found to affect the livelihood of the orchardists in encountering late spring frost. The results of multiple square correlations of dependent variables also indicated that about 41% of the livelihood variance of small-scale orchardists was explained by the predictor variables (i.e. causal conditions, background factors and interfering factors). The findings of this study can assist policymakers, planners and relevant managers while paying more attention to orchardists in the region, so as to support decisions in order to achieve sustainable development.

Apesar dos efeitos adversos das geadas do final da primavera no impacto ecológico e econômico na agricultura, o manejo desses eventos é pouco investigado. Portanto, a teoria fundamentada foi utilizada para extrair o modelo de estabilização dos meios de subsistência dos pomares nas margens do Lago Urmia contra as geadas do final da primavera. A população estatística deste estudo na parte qualitativa incluiu 22 especialistas na área de horticultura. O estudo quantitativo incluiu todos os fruticultores nas aldeias junto ao Lago Urmia, compreendendo 341 pessoas, das quais 236 foram selecionadas aleatoriamente. Ao examinar cuidadosamente e vincular os conceitos e subcategorias, as subcategorias mais importantes que foram incluídas em outras 6 subcategorias. Os resultados de todos os índices de qualidade de ajuste calculados (qui-quadrado [P > 0,01], RMSEA = 0,000, NFI = 0,95, CFI = 0,91 e GFI = 0,92) mostraram que o modelo forneceu um excelente ajuste para os dados. Os coeficientes de regressão padronizados mostraram que os fatores interferentes tiveram o maior impacto sobre a subsistência dos pomares contra as geadas do final da primavera (ß = 0,47). Além disso, descobriu-se que os fatores de fundo (ß = 0,43) e os fatores causais (ß = 0,39) afetam o sustento dos pomares ao enfrentarem geadas no final da primavera. Os resultados de múltiplas correlações quadradas de variáveis dependentes também indicaram que cerca de 41% da variância dos meios de subsistência de pequenos pomares foi explicada pelas variáveis preditoras, ou seja, condições causais, fatores de fundo e fatores interferentes. Os resultados deste estudo podem auxiliar os formuladores de políticas, planejadores e gestores relevantes, dando mais atenção aos pomares da região, de modo a apoiar as decisões a fim de alcançar o desenvolvimento sustentável.

Modeling stabilizing the of orchard managers on the shores of Lake Urmia against late spring frost.

Despite the adverse effects of late spring frost on the ecological and economic impact on agriculture, the management of these events are poorly investigated. Therefore, the grounded theory was used for extracting the livelihood stabilization model of orchardists on the shores of Lake Urmia against late spring frosts. The statistical population of this study in the qualitative part included 22 experts in the field of horticulture. In the quantitative study, they included all orchardists in the villages along with Lake Urmia, comprising 341 people, of which 236 were randomly selected. By carefully examining and linking the concepts and subcategories, the most important subcategories that were included six subcategories. The results of all calculated goodness-of-fit indexes (chi-square [P > 0.01], RMSEA = 0.000, NFI = 0.95, CFI = 0.91, and GFI = 0.92) showed the model provided an excellent fit for the data. Standardized regression coefficients showed that interfering factors had the greatest impact on the livelihood of orchardists against late spring frosts (ß = 0.47). Also, the background factors (ß = 0.43) and causal factors (ß = 0.39) were found to affect the livelihood of the orchardists in encountering late spring frost. The results of multiple square correlations of dependent variables also indicated that about 41% of the livelihood variance of small-scale orchardists was explained by the predictor variables (i.e. causal conditions, background factors and interfering factors). The findings of this study can assist policymakers, planners and relevant managers while paying more attention to orchardists in the region, so as to support decisions in order to achieve sustainable development.