HIV-1 subtype-specific drug resistance on dolutegravir-based antiretroviral therapy: protocol for a multicentre longitudinal study (DTG RESIST).

Introduction: HIV drug resistance poses a challenge to the United Nation's goal of ending the HIV/AIDS epidemic. The integrase strand transfer inhibitor (InSTI) dolutegravir, which has a higher resistance barrier, was endorsed by the World Health Organization in 2019 for first-, second-, and third-line antiretroviral therapy (ART). This multiplicity of roles of dolutegravir in ART may facilitate the emergence of dolutegravir resistance. Methods and analysis: DTG RESIST is a multicentre longitudinal study of adults and adolescents living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, and South and Central America who experienced virologic failure on dolutegravir-based ART. At the time of virologic failure whole blood will be collected and processed to prepare plasma or dried blood spots. Laboratories in Durban, Mexico City and Bangkok will perform genotyping. Analyses will focus on (i) individuals who experienced virologic failure on dolutegravir, and (ii) on those who started or switched to such a regimen and were at risk of virologic failure. For population (i), the outcome will be any InSTI drug resistance mutations, and for population (ii) virologic failure defined as a viral load >1000 copies/mL. Phenotypic testing will focus on non-B subtype viruses with major InSTI resistance mutations. Bayesian evolutionary models will explore and predict treatment failure genotypes. The study will have intermediate statistical power to detect differences in resistance mutation prevalence between major HIV-1 subtypes; ample power to identify risk factors for virologic failure and limited power for analysing factors associated with individual InSTI drug resistance mutations. Ethics and dissemination: The research protocol was approved by the Biomedical Research Ethics Committee at the University of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, and the Ethics Committee of the Canton of Bern, Switzerland. All sites participate in IeDEA and have obtained ethics approval from their local ethics committee to conduct the additional data collection. Registration: NCT06285110. Strengths and limitations of this study: - DTG RESIST is a large international study to prospectively examine emergent dolutegravir resistance in diverse settings characterised by different HIV-1 subtypes, provision of ART, and guidelines on resistance testing. - Embedded within the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA), DTG RESIST will benefit from harmonized clinical data across participating sites and expertise in clinical, epidemiological, biological, and computational fields. - Procedures for sequencing and assembling genomes from different HIV-1 strains will be developed at the heart of the HIV epidemic, by the KwaZulu-Natal Research Innovation and Sequencing Platform (KRISP), in Durban, South Africa. Phenotypic testing, Genome Wide Association Study (GWAS) methods and Bayesian evolutionary models will explore and predict treatment failure genotypes. - A significant limitation is the absence of genotypic resistance data from participants before they started dolutegravir treatment, as collecting and bio-banking pre-treatment samples was not feasible at most IeDEA sites. Consistent and harmonized data on adherence to treatment are also lacking. - The distribution of HIV-1 subtypes across different sites is uncertain, which may limit the statistical power of the study in analysing patterns and risk factors for dolutegravir resistance. The results from GWAS and Bayesian modelling analyses will be preliminary and hypothesis-generating.

Virologic Failure and Drug Resistance After Programmatic Switching to Dolutegravir-based First-line Antiretroviral Therapy in Malawi and Zambia.

BACKGROUND: People with human immunodeficiency virus (PWH) on first-line, nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor-based antiretroviral therapy (ART) were routinely switched to tenofovir-lamivudine-dolutegravir. We examined virologic outcomes and drug resistance in ART programs in Malawi, where switching was irrespective of viral load, and Zambia, where switching depended on a viral load <1000 copies/mL in the past year. METHODS: We compared the risk of viremia (≥400 copies/mL) at 1 and 2 years by viral load at switch and between countries using exact methods and logistic regression adjusted for age and sex. We performed HIV-1 pol Sanger sequencing on plasma samples with viral load ≥1000 copies/mL. RESULTS: A total of 2832 PWH were eligible (Malawi 1422, Zambia 1410); the median age was 37 years, and 2578 (91.0%) were women. At switch, 77 (5.4%) were viremic in Malawi and 42 (3.0%) in Zambia (P = .001). Viremia at switch was associated with viremia at 1 year (adjusted odds ratio (OR), 6.15; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.13-11.4) and 2 years (7.0; 95% CI, 3.73-12.6). Viremia was less likely in Zambia than in Malawi at 1 year (OR, 0.55; 0.32-0.94) and 2 years (OR, 0.33; 0.18-0.57). Integrase sequencing was successful for 79 of 113 eligible samples. Drug resistance mutations were found in 5 PWH (Malawi 4, Zambia 1); 2 had major mutations (G118R, E138K, T66A and G118R, E138K) leading to high-level dolutegravir resistance. CONCLUSIONS: Restricting switching to dolutegravir-based ART to PWH with a viral load <1000 copies/mL may reduce subsequent viremia and, consequently, the emergence of dolutegravir drug resistance mutations. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov (NCT04612452).

Authorship inequalities in global health research: the IeDEA Southern Africa collaboration.

BACKGROUND: The International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS conducts research in several regions, including in Southern Africa. We assessed authorship inequalities for the Southern African region, which is led by South African and Swiss investigators. METHODS: We analysed authorships of publications from 2007 to 2020 by gender, country income group, time and citation impact. We used 2020 World Bank categories to define income groups and the relative citation ratio (RCR) to assess citation impact. Authorship parasitism was defined as articles without authors from the countries where the study was conducted. A regression model examined the probability of different authorship positions. RESULTS: We included 313 articles. Of the 1064 contributing authors, 547 (51.4%) were women, and 223 (21.0%) were from 32 low-income/lower middle-income countries (LLMICs), 269 (25.3%) were from 13 upper middle-income countries and 572 (53.8%) were from 25 high-income countries (HICs). Most articles (150/157, 95.5%) reporting data from Southern Africa included authors from all participating countries. Women were more likely to be the first author than men (OR 1.74; 95% CI 1.06 to 2.83) but less likely to be last authors (OR 0.63; 95% CI 0.40 to 0.99). Compared with HIC, LLMIC authors were less likely to publish as first (OR 0.21; 95% CI 0.11 to 0.41) or last author (OR 0.20; 95% CI 0.09 to 0.42). The proportion of women and LLMIC first and last authors increased over time. The RCR tended to be higher, indicating greater impact, if first or last authors were from HIC (p=0.06). CONCLUSIONS: This analysis of a global health collaboration co-led by South African and Swiss investigators showed little evidence of authorship parasitism. There were stark inequalities in authorship position, with women occupying more first and men more last author positions and researchers from LLMIC being 'stuck in the middle' on the byline. Global health research collaborations should monitor, analyse and address authorship inequalities.

HIV-1 drug resistance in people on dolutegravir-based antiretroviral therapy: a collaborative cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: The widespread use of the integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI) dolutegravir in first-line and second-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) might facilitate emerging resistance. The DTG RESIST study combined data from HIV cohorts to examine patterns of drug resistance mutations (DRMs) and identify risk factors for dolutegravir resistance. METHODS: We included cohorts with INSTI resistance data from two collaborations (ART Cohort Collaboration, International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS in Southern Africa), and the UK Collaborative HIV Cohort. Eight cohorts from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Switzerland, South Africa, and the UK contributed data on individuals who were viraemic on dolutegravir-based ART and underwent genotypic resistance testing. Individuals with unknown dolutegravir initiation date were excluded. Resistance levels were categorised using the Stanford algorithm. We identified risk factors for resistance using mixed-effects ordinal logistic regression models. FINDINGS: We included 599 people with genotypic resistance testing on dolutegravir-based ART between May 22, 2013, and Dec 20, 2021. Most had HIV-1 subtype B (n=351, 59%), a third had been exposed to first-generation INSTIs (n=193, 32%), 70 (12%) were on dolutegravir dual therapy, and 18 (3%) were on dolutegravir monotherapy. INSTI DRMs were detected in 86 (14%) individuals; 20 (3%) had more than one mutation. Most (n=563, 94%) were susceptible to dolutegravir, seven (1%) had potential low, six (1%) low, 17 (3%) intermediate, and six (1%) high-level dolutegravir resistance. The risk of dolutegravir resistance was higher on dolutegravir monotherapy (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 34·1, 95% CI 9·93-117) and dolutegravir plus lamivudine dual therapy (aOR 9·21, 2·20-38·6) compared with combination ART, and in the presence of potential low or low (aOR 5·23, 1·32-20·7) or intermediate or high-level (aOR 13·4, 4·55-39·7) nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) resistance. INTERPRETATION: Among people with viraemia on dolutegravir-based ART, INSTI DRMs and dolutegravir resistance were rare. NRTI resistance substantially increased the risk of dolutegravir resistance, which is of concern, notably in resource-limited settings. Monitoring is important to prevent resistance at the individual and population level and ensure the long-term sustainability of ART. FUNDING: US National Institutes of Health, Swiss National Science Foundation.

Effect of the Friendship Bench Intervention on Antiretroviral Therapy Outcomes and Mental Health Symptoms in Rural Zimbabwe: A Cluster Randomized Trial.

Importance: Common mental disorders (CMD), which include depression and anxiety, are prevalent among people living with HIV and are associated with suboptimal antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence. Objective: To assess the effect of a lay health worker-led psychological intervention on ART adherence, virologic suppression, and mental health symptoms. Design, Setting, and Participants: Open-label pragmatic cluster trial with 1:1 block randomization of 16 health facilities in rural Bikita, Zimbabwe. Recruitment occurred from October 2018 to December 2019, and participants were followed up for 12 months, ending in December 2020. Participants were adults aged 18 years and older, who spoke English or Shona, screened positive for CMD (Shona Symptoms Questionnaire [SSQ]-14 score ≥9), received first-line ART for 6 or more months, had no World Health Organization stage 4 disease, no psychosis, were not pregnant, and provided informed consent. Data were analyzed from March 2021 to February 2022. Intervention: The Friendship Bench, consisting of 6 lay health worker-led weekly problem-solving therapy sessions and optional peer-led group support. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was mean adherence during 2 to 6 months of follow-up, and the secondary outcomes were mean adherence during 1 to 12 months of follow-up, change in SSQ-14 and Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) scores (3, 6, 9, and 12 months), and viral load suppression (6 and 12 months). Results: A total of 516 participants were recruited (244 in Friendship Bench and 272 in enhanced standard care facilities); 438 (84.9%) were female and the mean (SD) age was 45.6 (10.9) years. Mean (SD) adherence between 2 to 6 months was 89.9% (18.4%) in the Friendship Bench group and 87.2% (20.1%) in the control group. The intervention had no statistically significant effect on adherence between 2 to 6 months (unadjusted mean difference, 1.93 percentage points; 95% CI, -1.20 to 5.06 percentage points; P = .23), between months 1 to 12 (mean difference 0.79 percentage points; 95% CI, -2.14 to 3.71 percentage points; P = .60), or viral suppression. Declines in SSQ-14 scores from baseline to 3 months (difference, -1.65; 95% CI, -3.07 to -0.24), 6 months (difference, -1.57; 95% CI, -2.98 to -0.15), and 9 months (difference, -1.63; 95% CI, -3.05 to -0.22) were greater in the Friendship Bench than the standard care group (P < .05). There were no differences in the decline in the SSQ-14 scores from baseline to 12 months and in declines in PHQ-9 scores from baseline to 3, 6, 9, and 12 months. Conclusions and Relevance: In this randomized trial of HIV-positive participants with CMD, the Friendship Bench intervention had no effect on adherence and viral suppression, possibly due to the absence of skill-based adherence training and a ceiling effect. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03704805.

sHIV-1 drug resistance in people on dolutegravir-based ART: Collaborative analysis of cohort studies.

Background: The widespread use of the integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI) dolutegravir (DTG) in first- and second-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) may facilitate emerging resistance. We combined data from HIV cohorts to examine patterns of drug resistance mutations (DRMs) and identify risk factors for DTG resistance. Methods: Eight cohorts from Canada, Europe, and South Africa contributed data on individuals with genotypic resistance testing on DTG-based ART. Resistance levels were categorised using the Stanford algorithm. We identified risk factors for resistance using mixed-effects ordinal logistic regression models. Results: We included 750 people with genotypic resistance testing on DTG-based ART between 2013 and 2022. Most had HIV subtype B (N=444, 59·2%) and were treatment-experienced; 134 (17.9%) were on DTG dual and 19 (2.5%) on DTG monotherapy. INSTI DRMs were detected in 100 (13·3%) individuals; 21 (2·8%) had more than one mutation. Most (N=713, 95·1%) were susceptible to DTG, 8 (1·1%) had potential-low, 5 (0·7%) low, 18 (2·4%) intermediate and 6 (0·8%) high-level DTG resistance. The risk of DTG resistance was higher on DTG monotherapy (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 37·25, 95% CI 11·17 to 124·2) and DTG lamivudine dual therapy (aOR 6·59, 95% CI 1·70 to 25·55) compared to combination ART, and higher in the presence of potential-low/low (aOR 4.62, 95% CI 1.24 to 17.2) or intermediate/high-level (aOR 7·01, 95% CI 2·52 to 19·48) nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI) resistance. Viral load on DTG showed a trend towards increased DTG resistance (aOR 1·42, 95% CI 0·92 to 2·19 per standard deviation of log10 area under the viral load curve). Interpretation: Among people experiencing virological failure on DTG-based ART, INSTI DRMs were uncommon, and DTG resistance was rare. DTG monotherapy and NRTI resistance substantially increased the risk for DTG resistance, which is of concern, notably in resource-limited settings.

Design and implementation of a global site assessment survey among HIV clinics participating in the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) research consortium.

INTRODUCTION: Timely descriptions of HIV service characteristics and their evolution over time across diverse settings are important for monitoring the scale-up of evidence-based program strategies, understanding the implementation landscape, and examining service delivery factors that influence HIV care outcomes. METHODS: The International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) consortium undertakes periodic cross-sectional surveys on service availability and care at participating HIV treatment sites to characterize trends and inform the scientific agenda for HIV care and implementation science communities. IeDEA's 2020 general site assessment survey was developed through a consultative, 18-month process that engaged diverse researchers in identifying content from previous surveys that should be retained for longitudinal analyses and in developing expanded and new content to address gaps in the literature. An iterative review process was undertaken to standardize the format of new survey questions and align them with best practices in survey design and measurement and lessons learned through prior IeDEA site assessment surveys. RESULTS: The survey questionnaire developed through this process included eight content domains covered in prior surveys (patient population, staffing and community linkages, HIV testing and diagnosis, new patient care, treatment monitoring and retention, routine HIV care and screening, pharmacy, record-keeping and patient tracing), along with expanded content related to antiretroviral therapy (differentiated service delivery and roll-out of dolutegravir-based regimens); mental health and substance use disorders; care for pregnant/postpartum women and HIV-exposed infants; tuberculosis preventive therapy; and pediatric/adolescent tuberculosis care; and new content related to Kaposi's sarcoma diagnostics, the impact of COVID-19 on service delivery, and structural barriers to HIV care. The survey was distributed to 238 HIV treatment sites in late 2020, with a 95% response rate. CONCLUSION: IeDEA's approach for site survey development has broad relevance for HIV research networks and other priority health conditions.

Effect of the Friendship Bench intervention on antiretroviral therapy outcomes and mental health symptoms in rural Zimbabwe: A cluster randomized trial.

Importance: Common mental disorders (CMD) are prevalent in people living with HIV and associated with suboptimal antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence. Objective: To assess the effect of a lay health worker-led psychological intervention on adherence to ART, virologic suppression and mental health symptoms. Design: Pragmatic cluster trial with block randomization of health facilities. Treatment assignment was known to participants, providers, evaluators, and data analysts. Recruitment started in October 2018 and the last follow-up visit was done in December 2020. Participants were followed up for 12 months. Setting: Sixteen public health care facilities in Bikita, a rural district in Masvingo Province, about 300 km south of Harare. Participants: Men and non-pregnant women aged 18 years or older who spoke English or Shona, screened positive for CMD (Shona Symptoms Questionnaire [SSQ]-14 score ≥9), had received first-line ART for at least six months, had no WHO clinical stage 4 disease, no psychotic symptoms, and gave informed consent. Intervention: The Friendship Bench, a lay health worker-led intervention consisting of six weekly individual counselling sessions of problem-solving therapy and optional peer-led group support. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was Medication Event Monitoring System (MEMS) mean adherence between 2-6 months of follow-up. Secondary outcomes included mean adherence between 1-12 months, change from baseline SSQ-14 and Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) score at 3, 6, 9, and 12 months and change in viral load suppression (viral load <1000 copies per mL) at months 6 and 12. Results: We recruited 516 participants, 244 in Friendship bench and 272 in standard care facilities. The mean age was 45.6 years (SD 10.9), and most participants were women (84.9%). In the Friendship Bench group, 88.1% of participants attended all six individual counselling sessions. Rates of adherence (>85%) and virologic suppression (>90%) were high in both groups. The intervention had no statistically significant effect on adherence or viral suppression. Declines in SSQ-14 scores from baseline to 3 months (-1.65, 95% CI -3.07 to -0.24), 6 months (-1.57, 95% CI -2.98 to -0.15), and 9 months (-1.63, 95% CI -3.05 to -0.22) were greater in the Friendship Bench than the standard care group (p<0.05). There were no differences in the decline in the SSQ-14 scores from baseline to 12 months and in declines in PHQ-9 scores from baseline to 3, 6, 9, and 12 months. Conclusions and Relevance: The Friendship Bench intervention is a feasible and acceptable approach to closing the treatment gap in mental health care in rural Zimbabwe. The intervention improved CMD symptoms but the intervention effect was smaller than previously shown in an urban setting. The intervention had no effect on adherence and viral suppression, possibly due to the absence of skill-based adherence training and ceiling effect. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03704805. Key points: Question: Does the Friendship Bench intervention improve antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence, viral suppression and mental health symptoms in people living with HIV in rural Zimbabwe?Findings: In this cluster-randomized trial, participants in the intervention group had a significantly greater decrease in symptoms of common mental disorders than those in the control group, but the intervention showed no significant effect on antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence or viral suppression.Meaning: The intervention did not affect adherence and viral suppression and the effect of the intervention on mental health symptoms was smaller than previously shown.

Cost-effectiveness of a structured medication review approach for multimorbid older adults: Within-trial analysis of the OPERAM study.

BACKGROUND: Inappropriate polypharmacy has been linked with adverse outcomes in older, multimorbid adults. OPERAM is a European cluster-randomized trial aimed at testing the effect of a structured pharmacotherapy optimization intervention on preventable drug-related hospital admissions in multimorbid adults with polypharmacy aged 70 years or older. Clinical results of the trial showed a pattern of reduced drug-related hospital admissions, but without statistical significance. In this study we assessed the cost-effectiveness of the pharmacotherapy optimisation intervention. METHODS: We performed a pre-planned within-trial cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) of the OPERAM intervention, from a healthcare system perspective. All data were collected within the trial apart from unit costs. QALYs were computed by applying the crosswalk German valuation algorithm to EQ-5D-5L-based quality of life data. Considering the clustered structure of the data and between-country heterogeneity, we applied Generalized Structural Equation Models (GSEMs) on a multiple imputed sample to estimate costs and QALYs. We also performed analyses by country and subgroup analyses by patient and morbidity characteristics. RESULTS: Trial-wide, the intervention was numerically dominant, with a potential cost-saving of CHF 3'588 (95% confidence interval (CI): -7'716; 540) and gain of 0.025 QALYs (CI: -0.002; 0.052) per patient. Robustness analyses confirmed the validity of the GSEM model. Subgroup analyses suggested stronger effects in people at higher risk. CONCLUSION: We observed a pattern towards dominance, potentially resulting from an accumulation of multiple small positive intervention effects. Our methodological approaches may inform other CEAs of multi-country, cluster-randomized trials facing presence of missing values and heterogeneity between centres/countries.

Symptoms of common mental disorders and adherence to antiretroviral therapy among adults living with HIV in rural Zimbabwe: a cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the proportion of people living with HIV who screen positive for common mental disorders (CMD) and the associations between CMD and self-reported adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART). SETTING: Sixteen government-funded health facilities in the rural Bikita district of Zimbabwe. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. PARTICIPANTS: HIV-positive non-pregnant adults, aged 18 years or older, who lived in Bikita district and had received ART for at least 6 months. OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was the proportion of participants screening positive for CMD defined as a Shona Symptoms Questionnaire score of 9 or greater. Secondary outcomes were the proportion of participants reporting suicidal ideation, perceptual symptoms and suboptimal ART adherence and adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR) for factors associated with CMD, suicidal ideation, perceptual symptoms and suboptimal ART adherence. RESULTS: Out of 3480 adults, 18.8% (95% CI 14.8% to 23.7%) screened positive for CMD, 2.7% (95% CI 1.5% to 4.7%) reported suicidal ideations, and 1.5% (95% CI 0.9% to 2.6%) reported perceptual symptoms. Positive CMD screens were more common in women (aPR 1.67, 95% CI 1.19 to 2.35) than in men and were more common in adults aged 40-49 years (aPR 1.47, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.85) or aged 50-59 years (aPR 1.51, 95% CI 1.05 to 2.17) than in those 60 years or older. Positive CMD screen was associated with suboptimal adherence (aPR 1.53; 95% CI 1.37 to 1.70). CONCLUSIONS: A substantial proportion of people living with HIV in rural Zimbabwe are affected by CMD. There is a need to integrate mental health services and HIV programmes in rural Zimbabwe. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT03704805.

Measurement properties of EQ-5D-3L and EQ-5D-5L in recording self-reported health status in older patients with substantial multimorbidity and polypharmacy.

BACKGROUND: The EQ-5D-3L and EQ-5D-5L are two generic health-related quality of life measures, which may be used in clinical and health economic research. They measure impairment in 5 aspects of health: mobility, self-care, usual activities, pain/discomfort and anxiety/depression. The aim of this study was to assess the performance of the EQ-5D-3L and EQ-5D-5L in measuring the self-reported health status of older patients with substantial multimorbidity and associated polypharmacy. METHODS: Between 2017 and 2019, we administered EQ-5D-3L and EQ-5D-5L to a subset of patients participating in the OPERAM trial at 6 months and 12 months after enrolment. The OPERAM trial is a two-arm multinational cluster randomised controlled trial of structured medication review assisted by a software-based decision support system versus usual pharmaceutical care, for older people (aged ≥ 70 years) with multimorbidity and polypharmacy. In the psychometric analyses, we only included participants who completed the measures in full at 6 and 12 months. We assessed whether responses to the measures were consistent by assessing the proportion of EQ-5D-5L responses, which were 2 or more levels away from that person's EQ-5D-3L response. We also compared the measures in terms of informativity, and discriminant validity and responsiveness relative to the Barthel Index, which measures independence in activities of daily living. RESULTS: 224 patients (mean age of 77 years; 56% male) were included in the psychometric analyses. Ceiling effects reported with the EQ-5D-5L (22%) were lower than with the EQ-5D-3L (29%). For the mobility item, the EQ-5D-5L demonstrated better informativity (Shannon's evenness index score of 0.86) than the EQ-5D-3L (Shannon's evenness index score of 0.69). Both the 3L and 5L versions of EQ-5D demonstrated good performance in terms of discriminant validity, i.e. (out of all items of the EQ-5D-3L and EQ-5D-5L, the pain/discomfort and anxiety/depression items had the weakest correlation with the Barthel Index. Both the 3L and 5L versions of EQ-5D demonstrated good responsiveness to changes in the Barthel Index. CONCLUSION: Both EQ-5D-3L and EQ-5D-5L demonstrated validity and responsiveness when administered to older adults with substantial multimorbidity and polypharmacy who were able to complete the measures.

Occurrence and transmission potential of asymptomatic and presymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections: A living systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: There is disagreement about the level of asymptomatic severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. We conducted a living systematic review and meta-analysis to address three questions: (1) Amongst people who become infected with SARS-CoV-2, what proportion does not experience symptoms at all during their infection? (2) Amongst people with SARS-CoV-2 infection who are asymptomatic when diagnosed, what proportion will develop symptoms later? (3) What proportion of SARS-CoV-2 transmission is accounted for by people who are either asymptomatic throughout infection or presymptomatic? METHODS AND FINDINGS: We searched PubMed, Embase, bioRxiv, and medRxiv using a database of SARS-CoV-2 literature that is updated daily, on 25 March 2020, 20 April 2020, and 10 June 2020. Studies of people with SARS-CoV-2 diagnosed by reverse transcriptase PCR (RT-PCR) that documented follow-up and symptom status at the beginning and end of follow-up or modelling studies were included. One reviewer extracted data and a second verified the extraction, with disagreement resolved by discussion or a third reviewer. Risk of bias in empirical studies was assessed with an adapted checklist for case series, and the relevance and credibility of modelling studies were assessed using a published checklist. We included a total of 94 studies. The overall estimate of the proportion of people who become infected with SARS-CoV-2 and remain asymptomatic throughout infection was 20% (95% confidence interval [CI] 17-25) with a prediction interval of 3%-67% in 79 studies that addressed this review question. There was some evidence that biases in the selection of participants influence the estimate. In seven studies of defined populations screened for SARS-CoV-2 and then followed, 31% (95% CI 26%-37%, prediction interval 24%-38%) remained asymptomatic. The proportion of people that is presymptomatic could not be summarised, owing to heterogeneity. The secondary attack rate was lower in contacts of people with asymptomatic infection than those with symptomatic infection (relative risk 0.35, 95% CI 0.10-1.27). Modelling studies fit to data found a higher proportion of all SARS-CoV-2 infections resulting from transmission from presymptomatic individuals than from asymptomatic individuals. Limitations of the review include that most included studies were not designed to estimate the proportion of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections and were at risk of selection biases; we did not consider the possible impact of false negative RT-PCR results, which would underestimate the proportion of asymptomatic infections; and the database does not include all sources. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this living systematic review suggest that most people who become infected with SARS-CoV-2 will not remain asymptomatic throughout the course of the infection. The contribution of presymptomatic and asymptomatic infections to overall SARS-CoV-2 transmission means that combination prevention measures, with enhanced hand hygiene, masks, testing tracing, and isolation strategies and social distancing, will continue to be needed.

Who is telling the story? A systematic review of authorship for infectious disease research conducted in Africa, 1980-2016.

INTRODUCTION: Africa contributes little to the biomedical literature despite its high burden of infectious diseases. Global health research partnerships aimed at addressing Africa-endemic disease may be polarised. Therefore, we assessed the contribution of researchers in Africa to research on six infectious diseases. METHODS: We reviewed publications on HIV and malaria (2013-2016), tuberculosis (2014-2016), salmonellosis, Ebola haemorrhagic fever and Buruli ulcer disease (1980-2016) conducted in Africa and indexed in the PubMed database using Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses protocol. Papers reporting original research done in Africa with at least one laboratory test performed on biological samples were included. We studied African author proportion and placement per study type, disease, funding, study country and lingua franca. RESULTS: We included 1182 of 2871 retrieved articles that met the inclusion criteria. Of these, 1109 (93.2%) had at least one Africa-based author, 552 (49.8%) had an African first author and 41.3% (n=458) an African last author. Papers on salmonellosis and tuberculosis had a higher proportion of African last authors (p<0.001) compared with the other diseases. Most of African first and last authors had an affiliation from an Anglophone country. HIV, malaria, tuberculosis and Ebola had the most extramurally funded studies (≥70%), but less than 10% of the acknowledged funding was from an African funder. CONCLUSION: African researchers are under-represented in first and last authorship positions in papers published from research done in Africa. This calls for greater investment in capacity building and equitable research partnerships at every level of the global health community.

Rationale and design of OPtimising thERapy to prevent Avoidable hospital admissions in Multimorbid older people (OPERAM): a cluster randomised controlled trial.

INTRODUCTION: Multimorbidity and polypharmacy are important risk factors for drug-related hospital admissions (DRAs). DRAs are often linked to prescribing problems (overprescribing and underprescribing), as well as non-adherence with drug regimens for different reasons. In this trial, we aim to assess whether a structured medication review compared with standard care can reduce DRAs in multimorbid older patients with polypharmacy. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: OPtimising thERapy to prevent Avoidable hospital admissions in Multimorbid older people is a European multicentre, cluster randomised, controlled trial. Hospitalised patients ≥70 years with ≥3 chronic medical conditions and concurrent use of ≥5 chronic medications are included in the four participating study centres of Bern (Switzerland), Utrecht (The Netherlands), Brussels (Belgium) and Cork (Ireland). Patients treated by the same prescribing physician constitute a cluster, and clusters are randomised 1:1 to either standard care or Systematic Tool to Reduce Inappropriate Prescribing (STRIP) intervention with the help of a clinical decision support system, the STRIP Assistant. STRIP is a structured method performing customised medication reviews, based on Screening Tool of Older People's Prescriptions/Screening Tool to Alert to Right Treatment criteria to detect potentially inappropriate prescribing. The primary endpoint is any DRA where the main reason or a contributory reason for the patient's admission is caused by overtreatment or undertreatment, and/or inappropriate treatment. Secondary endpoints include number of any hospitalisations, all-cause mortality, number of falls, quality of life, degree of polypharmacy, activities of daily living, patient's drug compliance, the number of significant drug-drug interactions, drug overuse and underuse and potentially inappropriate medication. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The local Ethics Committees in Switzerland, Ireland, The Netherlands and Belgium approved this trial protocol. We will publish the results of this trial in a peer-reviewed journal. MAIN FUNDING: European Union's Horizon 2020 programme. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT02986425 , SNCTP000002183 , NTR6012, U1111-1181-9400.

Data management of clinical trials during an outbreak of Ebola virus disease.

INTRODUCTION: Clinical trial data management (DM) conducted during outbreaks like that of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa, 2014-2016, has to adapt to specific, unique circumstances. CTU Bern was asked to set up a safe data capture/management system that could be launched within a few weeks and cover two different vaccine trials. This article describes some of the challenges we faced and our solutions during the two different trials. METHODS: Setting up a DM system was split into four phases/tasks: (1) quick set-up of the (electronic) data capture system (EDC) and mobile infrastructure in Bern, (2) moving the EDC and infrastructure to Conakry, Guinea and implementation of a local data management centre (DMC), (3) running the DMC, and (4) data cleaning. The DMC had to meet the following criteria: (1) quick implementation, (2) efficient maintenance and handling of data, and (3) procedures to guarantee data quality. The EDC (REDCap) was setup as a local area network. In order to ensure high data quality, double data entry, and then review of inconsistencies and offline plausibility checks were implemented. RESULTS: From the start of CTU Bern's involvement to the productive EDC took 11 weeks. It was necessary to adapt processes for dealing with data continuously throughout the trial conduct phase. The data management team processed 171,794 case report form pages from a total of 14,203 participants in the period between March and December 2015. CONCLUSION: Data management is a key task supporting trial conduct. For trials in emergency situations, many of our approaches are suitable, but we also provide a list of aspects that might be done differently.

Efficacy and effectiveness of an rVSV-vectored vaccine in preventing Ebola virus disease: final results from the Guinea ring vaccination, open-label, cluster-randomised trial (Ebola Ça Suffit!).

BACKGROUND: rVSV-ZEBOV is a recombinant, replication competent vesicular stomatitis virus-based candidate vaccine expressing a surface glycoprotein of Zaire Ebolavirus. We tested the effect of rVSV-ZEBOV in preventing Ebola virus disease in contacts and contacts of contacts of recently confirmed cases in Guinea, west Africa. METHODS: We did an open-label, cluster-randomised ring vaccination trial (Ebola ça Suffit!) in the communities of Conakry and eight surrounding prefectures in the Basse-Guinée region of Guinea, and in Tomkolili and Bombali in Sierra Leone. We assessed the efficacy of a single intramuscular dose of rVSV-ZEBOV (2×107 plaque-forming units administered in the deltoid muscle) in the prevention of laboratory confirmed Ebola virus disease. After confirmation of a case of Ebola virus disease, we definitively enumerated on a list a ring (cluster) of all their contacts and contacts of contacts including named contacts and contacts of contacts who were absent at the time of the trial team visit. The list was archived, then we randomly assigned clusters (1:1) to either immediate vaccination or delayed vaccination (21 days later) of all eligible individuals (eg, those aged ≥18 years and not pregnant, breastfeeding, or severely ill). An independent statistician generated the assignment sequence using block randomisation with randomly varying blocks, stratified by location (urban vs rural) and size of rings (≤20 individuals vs >20 individuals). Ebola response teams and laboratory workers were unaware of assignments. After a recommendation by an independent data and safety monitoring board, randomisation was stopped and immediate vaccination was also offered to children aged 6-17 years and all identified rings. The prespecified primary outcome was a laboratory confirmed case of Ebola virus disease with onset 10 days or more from randomisation. The primary analysis compared the incidence of Ebola virus disease in eligible and vaccinated individuals assigned to immediate vaccination versus eligible contacts and contacts of contacts assigned to delayed vaccination. This trial is registered with the Pan African Clinical Trials Registry, number PACTR201503001057193. FINDINGS: In the randomised part of the trial we identified 4539 contacts and contacts of contacts in 51 clusters randomly assigned to immediate vaccination (of whom 3232 were eligible, 2151 consented, and 2119 were immediately vaccinated) and 4557 contacts and contacts of contacts in 47 clusters randomly assigned to delayed vaccination (of whom 3096 were eligible, 2539 consented, and 2041 were vaccinated 21 days after randomisation). No cases of Ebola virus disease occurred 10 days or more after randomisation among randomly assigned contacts and contacts of contacts vaccinated in immediate clusters versus 16 cases (7 clusters affected) among all eligible individuals in delayed clusters. Vaccine efficacy was 100% (95% CI 68·9-100·0, p=0·0045), and the calculated intraclass correlation coefficient was 0·035. Additionally, we defined 19 non-randomised clusters in which we enumerated 2745 contacts and contacts of contacts, 2006 of whom were eligible and 1677 were immediately vaccinated, including 194 children. The evidence from all 117 clusters showed that no cases of Ebola virus disease occurred 10 days or more after randomisation among all immediately vaccinated contacts and contacts of contacts versus 23 cases (11 clusters affected) among all eligible contacts and contacts of contacts in delayed plus all eligible contacts and contacts of contacts never vaccinated in immediate clusters. The estimated vaccine efficacy here was 100% (95% CI 79·3-100·0, p=0·0033). 52% of contacts and contacts of contacts assigned to immediate vaccination and in non-randomised clusters received the vaccine immediately; vaccination protected both vaccinated and unvaccinated people in those clusters. 5837 individuals in total received the vaccine (5643 adults and 194 children), and all vaccinees were followed up for 84 days. 3149 (53·9%) of 5837 individuals reported at least one adverse event in the 14 days after vaccination; these were typically mild (87·5% of all 7211 adverse events). Headache (1832 [25·4%]), fatigue (1361 [18·9%]), and muscle pain (942 [13·1%]) were the most commonly reported adverse events in this period across all age groups. 80 serious adverse events were identified, of which two were judged to be related to vaccination (one febrile reaction and one anaphylaxis) and one possibly related (influenza-like illness); all three recovered without sequelae. INTERPRETATION: The results add weight to the interim assessment that rVSV-ZEBOV offers substantial protection against Ebola virus disease, with no cases among vaccinated individuals from day 10 after vaccination in both randomised and non-randomised clusters. FUNDING: WHO, UK Wellcome Trust, the UK Government through the Department of International Development, Médecins Sans Frontières, Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (through the Research Council of Norway's GLOBVAC programme), and the Canadian Government (through the Public Health Agency of Canada, Canadian Institutes of Health Research, International Development Research Centre and Department of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development).

Efficacy and effectiveness of an rVSV-vectored vaccine expressing Ebola surface glycoprotein: interim results from the Guinea ring vaccination cluster-randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: A recombinant, replication-competent vesicular stomatitis virus-based vaccine expressing a surface glycoprotein of Zaire Ebolavirus (rVSV-ZEBOV) is a promising Ebola vaccine candidate. We report the results of an interim analysis of a trial of rVSV-ZEBOV in Guinea, west Africa. METHODS: For this open-label, cluster-randomised ring vaccination trial, suspected cases of Ebola virus disease in Basse-Guinée (Guinea, west Africa) were independently ascertained by Ebola response teams as part of a national surveillance system. After laboratory confirmation of a new case, clusters of all contacts and contacts of contacts were defined and randomly allocated 1:1 to immediate vaccination or delayed (21 days later) vaccination with rVSV-ZEBOV (one dose of 2 × 10(7) plaque-forming units, administered intramuscularly in the deltoid muscle). Adults (age ≥18 years) who were not pregnant or breastfeeding were eligible for vaccination. Block randomisation was used, with randomly varying blocks, stratified by location (urban vs rural) and size of rings (≤20 vs >20 individuals). The study is open label and masking of participants and field teams to the time of vaccination is not possible, but Ebola response teams and laboratory workers were unaware of allocation to immediate or delayed vaccination. Taking into account the incubation period of the virus of about 10 days, the prespecified primary outcome was laboratory-confirmed Ebola virus disease with onset of symptoms at least 10 days after randomisation. The primary analysis was per protocol and compared the incidence of Ebola virus disease in eligible and vaccinated individuals in immediate vaccination clusters with the incidence in eligible individuals in delayed vaccination clusters. This trial is registered with the Pan African Clinical Trials Registry, number PACTR201503001057193. FINDINGS: Between April 1, 2015, and July 20, 2015, 90 clusters, with a total population of 7651 people were included in the planned interim analysis. 48 of these clusters (4123 people) were randomly assigned to immediate vaccination with rVSV-ZEBOV, and 42 clusters (3528 people) were randomly assigned to delayed vaccination with rVSV-ZEBOV. In the immediate vaccination group, there were no cases of Ebola virus disease with symptom onset at least 10 days after randomisation, whereas in the delayed vaccination group there were 16 cases of Ebola virus disease from seven clusters, showing a vaccine efficacy of 100% (95% CI 74·7-100·0; p=0·0036). No new cases of Ebola virus disease were diagnosed in vaccinees from the immediate or delayed groups from 6 days post-vaccination. At the cluster level, with the inclusion of all eligible adults, vaccine effectiveness was 75·1% (95% CI -7·1 to 94·2; p=0·1791), and 76·3% (95% CI -15·5 to 95·1; p=0·3351) with the inclusion of everyone (eligible or not eligible for vaccination). 43 serious adverse events were reported; one serious adverse event was judged to be causally related to vaccination (a febrile episode in a vaccinated participant, which resolved without sequelae). Assessment of serious adverse events is ongoing. INTERPRETATION: The results of this interim analysis indicate that rVSV-ZEBOV might be highly efficacious and safe in preventing Ebola virus disease, and is most likely effective at the population level when delivered during an Ebola virus disease outbreak via a ring vaccination strategy. FUNDING: WHO, with support from the Wellcome Trust (UK); Médecins Sans Frontières; the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs through the Research Council of Norway; and the Canadian Government through the Public Health Agency of Canada, Canadian Institutes of Health Research, International Development Research Centre, and Department of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development.