Estimation of the basic reproduction number for Streptococcus equi spp. equi outbreaks by meta-analysis of strangles outbreak reports.

BACKGROUND: Streptococcus equi spp. equi (S. equi), the cause of strangles in horses, is considered a highly contagious pathogen affecting equines and the equine industry worldwide. Fundamental epidemiological characteristics of outbreaks, such as the basic reproduction number (R0 ), are not well described. OBJECTIVES: Estimate R0 for S. equi in equine populations from outbreak data. STUDY DESIGN: Systematic review and meta-analysis of published and unpublished data. METHODS: A literature search for outbreak reports was carried out. Depending on data available in the reports, the early epidemic growth rate or final attack rate (AR) approach was used to estimate the basic reproduction number for that outbreak. Other recorded outbreak characteristics were the type of housing (group vs. individual). An overall estimate for R0 was computed by meta-analysis. RESULTS: Data from eight outbreaks were extracted from peer-reviewed publications. Data from two additional, non-published outbreaks was also included in the meta-analysis. A conservative estimate for R0 was 2.2 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.9-2.5). A less conservative estimate, including outbreaks with a 100% AR for which a lower limit R0 was estimated, was 2.7 (95% CI 2.1-3.3). MAIN LIMITATIONS: Few papers describing longitudinal incidence data were found so most estimates were based on the outbreaks' final size. Several outbreaks had a 100% attack rate and could therefore only be included as a lower limit estimate in the meta-analysis. The reported result therefore may be an underestimation. CONCLUSIONS: This estimate for R0 for S. equi informs parameters for future mathematical modelling, quantifies desired preventive vaccine coverage and helps evaluate the effect of prevention strategies through future modelling studies.

Modelling the probability and impact of false-positive serology for Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato: A case study.

BACKGROUND: Serological screening tests for Lyme borreliosis have poor specificity, with potential for misdiagnosis and unnecessary antimicrobial treatment. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the impact of Lyme borreliosis seroprevalence and serologic test characteristics on the probability of obtaining a false-positive result and impact on antimicrobial use. STUDY DESIGN: Cross-sectional serological survey and modelling. METHODS: Sera from 303 horses in southern Belgium were analysed by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Apparent seroprevalence was derived from serological data and a Bayesian estimate of true seroprevalence was computed. These were a starting point to model the impact of test and population characteristics on the probability of obtaining false-positive results and consequently unnecessary treatments and complications. RESULTS: Apparent and true seroprevalence were 22% (95% CI 18%-27%) and 11% (credible interval with 95% probability 0.6%-21%) respectively. We estimate that two-thirds of positive samples are false positive in southern Belgium, with one in five of tested horses potentially misdiagnosed as infected. Around 5% of antimicrobial use in equine veterinary practice in Belgium may be attributable to treatment of a false-positive result. MAIN LIMITATIONS: There was uncertainty regarding the ELISA's sensitivity and specificity. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the importance of appreciating the poor diagnostic value of ELISA screening for Lyme borreliosis as demonstrated by this case study of seroprevalence in southern Belgium where we demonstrate that a nontrivial number of horses is estimated to receive unwarranted treatment due to poor appreciation of screening test characteristics by practitioners, contributing substantially to unnecessary use of antimicrobials.